Line v PSU jumped to UM by 12; news?
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
Sure, you could find reasons to believe MSU would win (I even predicted it, mainly because it was exactly the type of game Dantonio inexplicably wins). But I would be very surprised if 50% of the money bet on that game went with Sparty.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
You're correct. Dividing the money evenly isn't as good for sports books as having most of the money bet on the wrong side. When you're taking bets on upwards of 10,000 events per year, you don't need to divide the money evenly in every one. That's really sub-optimal and overdoing risk reduction.
You want lines that generate action. You want lines that induce bettors to take the wrong side. You want to mitigate risk. Those are all important for the bottom line.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
Vegas isn’t as accurate as people think they are. So far this season, the Vegas closing line has picked the correct winner (i.e. the Vegas favorite won the game) 76% of the time. That’s ok, but wouldn’t win a pick ‘em contest all that often.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
Vegas doesn't need to be that accurate but when they post articles like this...
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/nevada-sports-books-win-record-56-3m-in-september/
...they still can rake.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
Anecdotal, of course, but I've got two traveling trophies for two fairly large groups that have been sitting in my closet for years that disagree. Now, there's always a couple of us at the top who are clearly employing very similar strategies, so I can't go purely chalk. But a couple of minor tweaks incorporating S&P+ predictions on the toss-up games have proven to be enough to keep me out of danger.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
When you think of all the random games out there involving teams like UTEP, Wyoming, East Carolina and such, getting the outcome right 76% of the time sounds really good.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:00 PM ^
My strategy currently has me in first place in both of my groups and in the 99th percentile on ESPN, which is the case this late in the season every year.
I only personally know a handful of people in each group, but they all think I'm really knowledgeable about college sports (one group also does the NCAA basketball tournament). I probably spend less time doing my picks each week than anyone, and I apply zero knowledge when doing it.
Those Vegas lines aren't just chasing money.
EDIT: Oh, and I'm now fully expecting to get slaughtered this week.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
You mentioned S&P to supplement your strategy, that makes a difference. Going straight Vegas lines won’t regularly get you 99th percentile on the ESPN confidence pick’em though. More like 85th-90th which if you factor in the huge number of participants who quit before the end of the season really isn’t that impressive.
Source: I’ve tested the Vegas line strategy in the ESPN confidence pools over several years, and that’s what happened.
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
I don't doubt that has given me a boost, especially because I added that component out of necessity. But I was probably a 2-3 year reigning champ when that happened, and I made the change because I was deadlocked with someone in first place through like 10 weeks. Every week, he/she and I had the exact same picks. I was waiting for this clown to blink, but he/she never did, and I didn't want to break my winning streak with a tie. So S&P+ was added because, otherwise, I would have ended up in a tie for first place with someone doing the same thing I had been doing.
I don't doubt your experience and that there have been years when it wasn't as successful. I think we're in agreement here, though, that Vegas lines are based on much more than which fanbase is bigger or feeling more confident.
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
Definitely in agreement there. Vegas makes their money on the vig and by setting the line to be enticing for a lot of people to bet each side. In general, this is a fairly accurate predictor of the score. But Vegas’ goal isn’t to predict the score with precision, it’s to predict what people THINK the score will be with precision. Their margin for error is fairly large though; so long as they are wrong and the public is wrong they’ll still make money. They get burned when they’re wrong and the public knows they’re wrong, and money comes in heavy on one side and that side wins. That’s obviously not a common event, otherwise Vegas wouldn’t have so many huge, expensive resorts.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Bettors heard Don Brown's comments
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
They heard that Don Brown DIDN'T trim the moustache this week, that means trouble for ped state!!!
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
Maybe Franklin tweeted Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana last night and they knew he wasn't focused.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
I fixed it for you.
Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiama Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
I think you mean Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiama Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana
EDIT: 4godkingandwolverines beat me to it :(
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
The next-level reveal of Michigan's grabby pass defenders?
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
This is my take. That comment about Michigan holding revealed just how shaky Franklinmint was feeling; the line crumbled.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^
This is why the line moved that much.... bettors be like "oh he pissed them off even more than they already are....take my money"
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
If there was any positive injury news for Michigan, or negative for PSU, it would've been posted here long before the line had time to change in Vegas. I doubt there have been any significant updates on that front. No way in hell Vegas knows something about this team that MGoBlog doesn't.
I admit that I know diddly poo about gambling, but I imagine the line is changing in Michigan's favor because there are probably more people betting on Michigan to win than PSU.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
"Who's being naive now Kay"
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
Underrated comment.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
That whole convo is my favorite part of the movie.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
What a fantastic movie. I re-watched it this past weekend. Then I turned on the commentary from Coppola and watched it again. Lots of great "behind the scenes" stuff provided.
So many great lines and scenes, but I have to say that the baptism scene is one of the finest segments in film history. Apparently Coppola had doubts about that scene after filming it: it didn't quite work, he said, until the musical director added the swelling organ track at the end.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
Scott Paterno got himself included on the roster as a slot receiver and a speed back...
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
Scott Faterno would be a great nose tackle in a 3-4.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
Most of me wants Mcsorley to play so we can mush them with their best player on the field.
The other part would LOVE for them to play their second string guy and we pummel them into rubber pellets and spread them over the field as if they were ashes. It's only fair.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
i have to believe mcsorley is playing. hell, he broke off that huge run last week AFTER he injured his knee. but who knows, they may have been able to wrap that knee right after the injury to prevent swelling. then it could have balooned after the game. it can take a couple weeks for that to go away from sprains unless they drain it.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
He was riding a stationary bike when the PSU defense was on the field, presumably to keep his knee warm and loose so it wouldn't swell up and preclude him from being able to run. I bet after the game it ballooned into a boulder attached to his leg.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
Sure, but who knows how he felt Sunday after the Vicodin wore off...
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
Everyone points to that but it's worth noting he made zero cuts on that run or at any point after the injury that I can remember.
You can screw up a lot of stuff in your knee and still run in a straight line, especially before the swelling kicks in the next day or so.
November 3rd, 2018 at 8:44 AM ^
My roommate at UofM suffered an 85% tear in his ACL during an IM football game. He finished the game. His knee felt weird the next couple days so he went to health services and got the diagnosis. He has surgery and spent the rest of the school year rehabbing his knee.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
I don't know, part of me doesn't want to think about what happens if Tommy Stevens comes in and goes all McGloin on us. Look at the Mullens kid for SF last night against the Raiders. Weird things happen with oddball QB's in oddball situations.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
Yeah, but this isn't 2010 Michigan with RR and Greg Robinson. Nor is it present-day Oakland with Jon Gruden all but intentionally tanking.
Things are a little different in Ann Arbor these days.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
We at least have some film on that guy now. It wouldn't be a total shock.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Vegas just now remembered that James Franklin is the coach of PSU, hence the line jump in UM’s favor.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
I also think Vegas rewatched the Iowa-PSU game.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Vegas realized that Don Brown has woken up every day thinking about last year's Penn State game?
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Based on no information whatsoever other than my sheer excitement for Tarick Black back in the field is why. GOBLUE!
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
This is odd because as of yesterday it appeared to be that 62% of the consensus was PSU and the points. I would have expected the line to move the other way to balance it out. This is why I stay away from betting.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
People just realized at this point of the season that PSU doesn't have Saquon.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
This might be his might be the issue:
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
Um, this line intrigued me... "We’ve just gotten to the point where we’re gonna play him and rotate him in,” Franklin said. “… We’re gonna play him from here on out. How much he plays, we’ll see — he’s still learning and still growing. But he’ll be a nice little complement when KJ (Hamler) needs a blow.”
Does Hamler have no control over his libido on the sideline?
![6vtbqn5[1].jpg](/sites/default/files/users/user104274/6vtbqn5%5B1%5D.jpg)
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
Those Penn State blow job girls must be some of the best in the country. It's the only explanation for their recruiting.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
I don't know, man....all that talk about someone needing a blow and how they're going to rotate guys in just seems like it would amount to a huge distraction on the sideline.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
Remember our mantra...
The line is way too high
what are they thinking
it's crazy man
...and breath out.
Been working so far, right?
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
I can't remember who, but one of our players told the media that Tarik Black was back at full speed. Also we're likely to see Gary back this week or the next.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
McSorley practiced with a brace on his knee. He is playing.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
The line swung like this for the Michigan State game during the week. What usually happens in rivalry games is they narrow.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
No rain in Ann Arbor for the game.