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Date Title Body
11/20/2018 - 10:31am There aren't a whole lot of…

There aren't a whole lot of home-run options out there this year. As much as I like the idea of a Franklin-saddled PSU going forward, I think a dose of instability in Happy Valley is probably even better, especially in terms of disrupting their recruiting momentum. 

Also, this would ensure that USC continues to be a head-shaking shit show, which is also nice.

11/20/2018 - 10:11am You might say it's a "now or…

You might say it's a "now or next year" situation.

11/15/2018 - 5:03pm Is it wrong though?

Whether…

Is it wrong though?

Whether or not you think they'll turn things around, Florida State is a tire fire right now. At the moment, the ACC really is just Clemson. I don't think there's any doubt it's a cake walk today.

If your argument is that program with a history of sustained success will rebound, I think the point is even more correct. There are at least four programs in the Big Ten that have more historical clout than the best in the ACC.

11/11/2018 - 1:17pm You conspiracy types keep…

You conspiracy types keep saying this as though it's a fact. Where is your evidence? There is none.

I'm sorry, but you're just looking for things to be upset about. It's not happening.

11/09/2018 - 4:31pm I would have assumed so, but…

I would have assumed so, but I think he was busy filming Bad Santa at the time.

11/09/2018 - 4:24pm Uhhhh....

Uhhhh....

11/09/2018 - 4:11pm The preview post actually…

The preview post actually caught me a little off-guard. Then there was an uneasy feeling as I realized this isn't actually a bye week. Then I realized, "Holy shit, haven't you been smoking peyote for six straight days, and couldn't some of this maybe be in your mind?"

11/09/2018 - 2:03pm Just tried it. Seems to have…

Just tried it. Seems to have frightened people. Is that how it's supposed to work?

11/05/2018 - 8:19am 2004, Man. We're in no…

2004, Man. We're in no position to get picky about how we might get this monkey off our back. 

11/02/2018 - 3:12pm I don't doubt that has given…

I don't doubt that has given me a boost, especially because I added that component out of necessity. But I was probably a 2-3 year reigning champ when that happened, and I made the change because I was deadlocked with someone in first place through like 10 weeks. Every week, he/she and I had the exact same picks. I was waiting for this clown to blink, but he/she never did, and I didn't want to break my winning streak with a tie. So S&P+ was added because, otherwise, I would have ended up in a tie for first place with someone doing the same thing I had been doing.

I don't doubt your experience and that there have been years when it wasn't as successful. I think we're in agreement here, though, that Vegas lines are based on much more than which fanbase is bigger or feeling more confident.

 

11/02/2018 - 2:00pm My strategy currently has me…

My strategy currently has me in first place in both of my groups and in the 99th percentile on ESPN, which is the case this late in the season every year. 

I only personally know a handful of people in each group, but they all think I'm really knowledgeable about college sports (one group also does the NCAA basketball tournament). I probably spend less time doing my picks each week than anyone, and I apply zero knowledge when doing it. 

Those Vegas lines aren't just chasing money.

EDIT: Oh, and I'm now fully expecting to get slaughtered this week.

11/02/2018 - 1:38pm Anecdotal, of course, but I…

Anecdotal, of course, but I've got two traveling trophies for two fairly large groups that have been sitting in my closet for years that disagree. Now, there's always a couple of us at the top who are clearly employing very similar strategies, so I can't go purely chalk. But a couple of minor tweaks incorporating S&P+ predictions on the toss-up games have proven to be enough to keep me out of danger. 

11/02/2018 - 12:30pm Someone always provides this…

Someone always provides this comment in these threads. "Vegas" doesn't mean a group of guys on the strip for a bachelor party for the weekend or some schmucks in town for a conference. This is serious money, and these lines are based on way more information than anyone here might have. Vegas has to beat the people who do this for a living.

Ever play in one of those ESPN pick'em games with friends, family, coworkers, etc? Want to win it every year? Pick the Vegas favorites, and use the lines to determine your confidence rankings. Congratulations, you are now the winner.

Yes, Vegas is trying to get even money, but they do that by being very, very good at setting these lines. 

 

11/02/2018 - 8:43am I'm pretty sure the revenue…

I'm pretty sure the revenue tour consists of one stop in New Jersey.

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11/01/2018 - 5:26pm If this were another player…

If this were another player at another school, no one would even be talking about it because it's not interesting to anyone who isn't a pretty serious fan of the school.

Do you happen to know if Troy Smith has been honored by Ohio State at any point over the last decade? I don't, because that's not even interesting news for me. If you told me they have honored him, I don't judge the fans who supported it. (And not in the "what else would you expect from Ohio" sort of way.)

We're not talking about honoring Joe Paterno here. It's a basketball player who got some money.

Do I wish he would have handled it differently? You bet. Am I morally outraged? Not even a little tiny bit.

11/01/2018 - 12:09pm As others have pointed out,…

As others have pointed out, this simply isn't true, and everyone needs to stop losing their minds about this.

First, Bama is probably going to beat LSU this weekend, so let's all just chill out.

Second, a Bama team that doesn't win its division is not getting in over a one-loss B1G champ whose only loss came in a one-score game on the road at night way back before Labor Day. Everyone claiming this is a lock, please show me any evidence that this would happen. None exists.

To the contrary, we know that it was extremely controversial to take a one-loss Bama team that didn't win its division over a two-loss B1G champ that was blown out by a mediocre team in November. All of the hypotheticals being tossed around assume Michigan wins out, so we are not talking about the same scenario that happened last year with Ohio State.

We want all undefeated teams to lose. After that, we want all one-loss teams to lose again. Hell, we want any two-loss teams to drop a third game. Right down the line.

As the OP says, Alabama can't lose twice if it doesn't lose once. We're all assuming Michigan wins out. If that happens, we will be in it. You want Alabama out of the way? Root for it to lose.

Our biggest threats (again, assuming we win out) are Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. I don't see either of the Big XII teams passing us. And the committee putting ND at 4 and us at 5 makes me confident Notre Dame has zero room for error.

If we were in OSU's spot at 10, some of these arguments would have merit. But with a debut spot at 5, a game against a ranked PSU team this coming Saturday, and a road game against OSU still on the schedule the Saturday after Thanksgiving, we only need to worry about the outcomes of our games. 

11/01/2018 - 11:44am Ideal scenario for…

Ideal scenario for championship weekend is Bama and Clemson both in, but with 1 loss already. That way a loss eliminates them and doesn't set up "tough call" scenario 3. This would also open up the possibility of Michigan making it in even with an extra loss, as long as they make and win the B1G championship.

This is the correct take.

10/31/2018 - 1:52pm You took my nads, Dennis!

You took my nads, Dennis!

10/31/2018 - 1:23pm Well, to play devil's…

Well, to play devil's advocate, it sounds as though Harbaugh might have been doing a little damage control this morning: https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2018/10/31/michigan-football-rashan-gary-injury/1830253002/

If Rashan and his mother took issue with the way Harbaugh presented things after the MSU game, I can't say I would blame them. It's possible Ms. Coney-Shephard expressed some frustration with the way things were communicated publicly. 

10/31/2018 - 11:45am You're not alone. I think it…

You're not alone. I think it might be BPONE residuals lingering in people's brains. 

People acting as if Alabama would be a lock without even winning its division are being irrational. It was very controversial to take an identically-postured Alabama last year over a TWO-LOSS TEAM. One that had been BLOWN OUT by a mediocre opponent IN NOVEMBER.

It is absolutely not a lock that Alabama would get in in a world where we win out and they fail to win their division. In fact, it is extremely unlikely. An Alabama loss at any time is a good thing, and not just because it's fun. It also gets us one step closer to Alabama dropping another game (like, say, SEC title game after LSU drops one to A&M?) and potentially being out of the hunt completely.

Similarly, anyone thinking we need Notre Dame to win out is also being irrational. We do not need our first-week, one-the-road-at-night loss to be to an undefeated team in order to get in. I have no idea where this line of thinking comes from. An undefeated ND team is eating a playoff spot. That is 100% true. Notre Dame dropping a game to anyone on the remainder of its schedule probably disqualifies it. That's a good thing for Michigan, and our loss to Notre Dame will still be a "good loss."

10/30/2018 - 8:41pm Sorry to say I think you've…

Sorry to say I think you've got just about all of this wrong. 

A Notre Dame loss is very good for us. It almost certainly opens up a playoff spot, at least as things stand today. We would immediately jump them, and we would continue to widen the gap down the stretch if we keep winning (which we're all assuming in any of these scenarios anywag).

An Ohio State loss before Thanksgiving weekend would be enormously positive for Michigan. First goal is to win the conference, and another conference loss for OSU increases the odds of that happening dramatically. 

We don't NEED conference wins from anyone else, so root for chaos and losses to our rivals. That means a more enjoyable final month of the regular season, more pain for our rivals, and no real detriment to us as we're already right where we need to be. 

Chaos is what we want. Upsets and losses to PSU, MSU, and OSU.

10/30/2018 - 8:28pm Because everyone always over…

Because everyone always over Ohio State. Also, another conference loss to OSU gives us some cushion in the conference. Also, we don't need Ohio State to be a great team to boost our resume. They could lose out, and Michigan gets in by winning out.

10/30/2018 - 8:16pm If LSU wins this weekend …

If LSU wins this weekend (they won't), I promise LSU will drop another one, probably to Texas A&M.

A lot of teams are going to lose, and several of those loses will be shocking when they happen. People coming up with nightmare scenarios are just desperate for something to worry about.

If Michigan wins out, we'll be in. That (winning out) is not a given though either. Hell, even Indiana could give us some trouble just like Iowa did two years ago. At least this one is at home. Just win.

10/29/2018 - 9:07am This comment is perfect.

This comment is perfect.

10/27/2018 - 5:35pm He is subsgantsubst bigger.

He is substantially bigger.

10/26/2018 - 12:19pm Think of all of the…

Think of all of the knickknacks you can buy!

10/26/2018 - 12:06pm A lot of people hate money…

A lot of people hate money and want to work for other people for the rest of their lives. 

10/26/2018 - 11:45am I kind of think a Sparty…

I kind of think a Sparty loss this weekend actually increases the odds they beat OSU. First because, well, that's the kind of shit Sparty does. Second because OSU won't see it as a chance to avenge the beating Purdue gave them last weekend. Lastly, a pathetic, crippled Sparty might get overlooked by the Buckeyes. Also, I'm probably just looking for reasons to root for more Sparty misery.

So I'd like to see Sparty lose to Purdue. I'd like to see Iowa break Penn State. Losses by Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Texas would all be good for Michigan. Seeing Georgia continue to slide out of the conversation of the elite would be good too.

10/25/2018 - 12:06pm I am confident that, by…

I am confident that, by December 1, this fear of yours will seem downright silly. A lot is going to happen between now and then. Look at how November goes every year in college football. There's a good chance we're debating whether a two-loss team deserves a spot one month from now. 

10/24/2018 - 4:47pm Why can't legitimate…

Why can't legitimate students get paid? Do you refuse to enjoy college orchestras since some of those students are making money as musicians?

I had a job when I was in undergrad at Michigan that was a stepping stone to the career I was pursuing at the time. Did that make me a less legitimate student?

I love college football. Presumably you do too, and you are allowed to like it for whatever reasons you have. But I can tell you that 0% of my enjoyment on a fall Saturday comes from knowing (or choosing to believe) that the students aren't getting paid.

10/24/2018 - 4:06pm I have some extended family…

I have some extended family in a small town in southwest Michigan called Hamilton. The high school in that town is the Hamilton Hawkeyes, and they used the tigerhawk logo. I remember maybe about 15 years ago some of my cousins were involved in helping to design a new logo because they had received a cease and desist letter from Iowa. So correct, this is not new.

10/24/2018 - 3:55pm They lost to 3-3 Syracuse…

They lost to 3-3 Syracuse last year. They lost to 5-4 Pitt the year before. Hell, they were lucky to get a win over Syracuse this year. 

These things aren't always easy to spot on paper, but that doesn't mean they can't happen.

10/23/2018 - 5:03pm In 2009, Luck (Stanford) ran…

In 2009, Luck (Stanford) ran 61 times for 364 yards. In 2010, he ran 55 times for 453 yards.

For comparison, in 2011, under Shaw, Luck ran 47 times for 150 yards.

If you want to go back further, in 2004, Josh Johnson (USD) ran 86 times for 379 yards. In 2005, he ran 107 times for 720 yards. 

Harbaugh himself rushed for over 100 yards each year he was a full-time starter at Michigan (139 yards in 1985 and 118 yards in 1986).

Having a quarterback who can threaten with his legs is nothing new for Harbaugh. 

10/23/2018 - 6:58am Didn't we win this game? We…

Didn't we win this game? We don't need to think about MSU football until next November. At that point, we can worry about not letting the shutout slip away. Let Sparty handle the hand wringing for the time being.

10/22/2018 - 8:35pm Haha part of the problem…

Haha part of the problem with young people?

10/22/2018 - 1:44pm (No subject)

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10/22/2018 - 12:57pm I assumed he was joking too…

I assumed he was joking too. Then I saw the second response, and wow. A part of me was kind of hoping it would escalate because anyone claiming to be offended by what you wrote was going to make my already-very-pleasant Monday. 

10/22/2018 - 12:39pm There's so much funny shit…

There's so much funny shit on the internet right now for Michigan fans, and someone potentially being banned from this site over what you wrote might be the funniest of them all.

08/28/2018 - 5:05pm Wow.

Wow.

08/25/2018 - 5:16am Hard to question these kinds…

Hard to question these kinds of thorough scientific findings.

08/21/2018 - 10:39pm Maybe let's solve the…

Maybe let's solve the problems that do exist before we start fretting about the ones that don't exist yet.

08/16/2018 - 9:34pm This is the most fun I've…

This is the most fun I've had on this site in a long time. How are these two conversations co-existing and carrying on like this? I am amazed.

08/15/2018 - 10:39pm Oh yeah, I'm not commenting…

Oh yeah, I'm not commenting on whether or not there is anything behind it. I mean, I'm starting to get pretty fired up about this team just looking at the talent and experience at almost every position. I don't doubt there is genuine excitement. 

Last year, though, Zordich was clearly using the media to communicate messages to his players during fall camp--as you can see in the video, that's not in dispute. I don't believe these guys are coming out here and saying things on accident. It's all very strategic. 

And, if there is a strategy behind what is being portrayed and how it's being portrayed to the media, it seems to be that there is an abundance of confidence in that locker room. It feels kind of like they are putting some people on notice. And, for the record, I don't think they would do that if they didn't think they could back it up. It's pretty fun.

08/15/2018 - 9:21pm This is not a comment on…

This is not a comment on whether their optimism is justified, but it kind of feels as though the goal here is to exude immense amounts of confidence and excitement about the team. I can't help but wonder if they are trying to get in Notre Dame's head a little. And, if they are, I love it. Make those Domers worry about what's coming.

08/02/2018 - 4:48am ITT: Michigan people…

ITT: Michigan people reminding you they have more in common with Ohio people than you'd like to admit.

08/01/2018 - 8:10pm I would actually love it if…

I would actually love it if it were Dantonio. Get him out of EL (where would they go next?), and no way his shtick would work in Columbus. We've already seen him mishandle just about every star player he's managed to get to EL.

08/01/2018 - 8:03pm Not only is the McMurphy…

Not only is the McMurphy piece a straight-up bombshell presented with all evidence nicely packaged with a bow, but it also comes one week after repeated bold-face denials by Meyer on national TV. Combine both of those things with the facts that OSU football exists in the national spotlight and there is very little other news right now, and you get a perfect storm here. No doubt McMurphy had all of that in mind as well.

08/01/2018 - 4:13pm This is an odd take. The…

This is an odd take. The underlying question isn't whether Warinner upheld his organizational control duties during his time at Ohio State. And I don't think anyone is suggesting Warinner should be held accountable for the actions of Smith. 

You have a guy in a prominent role in the locker room (and at the university as a whole) who was potentially involved in a culture of silence surrounding ongoing and long-term domestic abuse. The underlying questions are whether he contributed to that culture and whether he understands that it cannot be tolerated.

McQueary and Schiano have been blasted for having knowledge of abuse and not taking action to protect the victims. Rightfully so. If it came out that Warinner knew this abuse was happening and took no action to protect the victim, how would it be any different?

08/01/2018 - 3:16pm Thank you! I feel like I'm…

Thank you! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Fuck the record. Fuck football. This is a real-life situation in which someone was physically and emotionally abused for years at least in part because Meyer kept it under wraps, allowing it to continue. I want him gone today because more people who are used to wielding their power unchecked need to realize that there are consequences for their actions. 

08/01/2018 - 2:48pm This is why questions need…

This is why questions need to be asked and what he knew (and what he did with that information) is important. I've never been in a work situation where I have a colleague occasionally assaulting his wife, and the wives are texting about it, but I sure as hell wouldn't sit back and allow a victim to suffer because that person doesn't report directly to me or because I don't have hiring and firing authority. That's a person in need, and the fucking chain of reporting is irrelevant.

You've got a guy drunkenly taking Urban's female assistant home with him to his pregnant wife and then physically assaulting his pregnant wife for not letting Urban's female assistant sleep over. On the one-year anniversary of their marriage. Are you kidding me? This guy is a shameless piece of shit, and his wife was trapped in a terrible situation. (Totally unrelated, but is this the same assistant...?) And it was openly discussed among the coaches' wives.

It's possible Warinner didn't know anything. It's possible what he knew was insufficient to take action. It's possible he did take action, and it still got silenced. Hell, it's even possible his disagreement over the handling of things led to him parting ways with the OSU program in 2016. It's also possible he knew things and kept his mouth shut. But I don't think anyone here knows what he knew, so no one is in a position to determine whether or not he should be held responsible. 

We want to teach students to be great, to do the right thing, to stand up in difficult situations? We need to expect that from the leaders on campus. You lead by example. And that doesn't necessarily mean going to the media. If he did know what was going on, he could have told Urban he would leave if Smith didn't go. I don't know how anyone here can say that we're cool with the possibility of a guy contributing to a culture that enabled this predator just because someone else deserves more blame. Without the facts, you can't draw any conclusion. So questions need to be asked.

I hope Warinner's conduct, whatever it was, allows him to answer those questions without shame or remorse.