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FORMATION NOTES: Nothing unusual from Michigan. Army had their 404 thing that Seth's discussed a few times but also shifted into 4-3 and 3-4 fronts depending on the situation; the number of things they threw at Michigan was significant.

offset LB like that is 404 indicator

more of a 3-4

The system is the system even if the alignments change; Army isn't two-gapping anyone. For the most part Michigan was able to cope with the various things; a couple players struggled.

Michigan was evenly split between 3 WR 1 TE and 2 WR 2 TE looks, FWIW.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: OL was Hayes/Bredeson/Ruiz/Onwenu/Mayfield the whole way. McCaffrey got three snaps when Patterson went out a couple times.

With Wilson out RB started as a Turner/Charbonnet platoon; Turner got dropped after he missed important blitz pickups, leading to a Ben VanSumeren cameo that almost immediately resulted in a fumble. After that it was Charbonnet 100% until late, when Turner re-emerged for a few plays.

WR was Collins, Black, and Bell; the former two got almost all of the snaps and Bell was out there slightly over half the time. Johnson, Sainristil, and Jackson had a few snaps each.

McKeon was near omnipresent; Eubanks got about half the snaps. All got a few goal-line plays.

[After THE JUMP: well…]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M27	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	404 nickel	6	Run	RPO IZ	Charbonnet	12
RPO holds field-side LB deep to defend the slant. Blitz from MLB handled by Ruiz(+1); Bredeson(+2) fires NT three yards downfield; Hayes(+0.5) gets an adequate kick. Charbonnet(+1) cuts to the backside gap and makes the RPO’d LB miss. RPS +1, RPO bought a block.
M39	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	Flare screen	Charbonnet	Inc
I don’t know if this is going to work because playside OLB is running out hard but Army’s edge is super soft so if eh can get outside this DE, potential profit. Maybe prefer the pre-snap motion version of this. Patterson puts it a yard too far in front of Charbonnet and he can’t bring it in. (MA, 2, screen)
M39	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide tight	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Jet sweep	Jackson	0
Jackson(-2) has a big lane to the interior as Charbonnet(+1) runs out to hammer a filling S to the ground. Instead of cutting up behind this he extends to the sideline, where there’s an unblocked guy, and gets nothing. Cut up is at least a few yards and maybe a big play if he can get past a LB who Mayfield might be able to push past a tackle attempt.
M39	3	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Improv	Bell	12
M gets Army to tip double-A blitz and picks it up. A bonus stunt threatens to get through but Bredeson(gold star!) is able to track the guy by going behind Ruiz and puts him on the ground. Still understandable that Patterson breaks the pocket, especially because Collins has gotten tackled, drawing holding flags. He’s able to hit Bell on the sideline. (CA+, 3, protection 3/3) Bell(route +) did a nice job to disconnect.
O49	1	10	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	2	2	404 base	7	Penalty	False start	Bredeson	-5
Bredeson -1.
M46	1	15	Shotgun 2 TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	RPO IZ	Turner	11
Giant backside gap appears as Ruiz(+1) blasts the NT down the line. Onwenu(-1) has a gap over him and does not engage with the DL to either side so Ruiz can’t fall off the NT and try to get to the LB level.. Turner might be better off extending to the sideline and waiting for a gap to appear because the lack of an Onwenu block means the MLB is free. Turner(+2) dusts him, so okay. Mayfield(+1) blew a DE out so there is going to be a lane further outside.
O43	2	4	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Pass	RPO slant	Black	15
Army look is seven guys in the box and super soft coverage on the slot so Patterson probably knows he’s doing this presnap. RPO sucks in the LB level, easy pitch and catch except Patterson zings it outside the frame of Black’s body, necessitating a nice catch. (MA, 2, RPO, RPS +1) Klatt says this isn’t an RPO because there’s no mesh but OL are crossing the LOS, RPO IMO.
O28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-12
Army sends both LBs again and gets through. Turner(-2) appears to blow the pickup here as he waits for a beat and then releases into the flat; he missed the LB level coming. Hayes has to respect a DE potentially coming; he converts to coverage on Turner. Bredeson picks up the first backer; second one is through clean. Meanwhile Patterson has Bell on a two yard drag in front of his face and absolutely has to get this out. He’s got three seconds and a bunch of short routes. (TA, N/A, protection 0/2). Patterson –3.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-0, 10 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	1
Gattis and Harbaugh both asserted the reads were in so I’m going to grade this like they’re telling the truth. So: Patterson(-2) misses a blindingly wide open keep read with the end turning his shoulders to chase and no scrape. M playing 7 v 6 in box now and Charbonnet gets got by the crashing end. Mayfield(+2) got an excellent sealing reach block; Onwenu(+1) crushed a guy on the second level. Army stunts on frontside and delivers a DE to Charbonnet unblocked as left side of line does not figure something is up with the overhang LB with no eligible WR. Ruiz(-2) lets the stunting end by.
M31	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Pass	Out	Black	8
Zone look, step up from LB for no apparent reason with no PA, Black pops open for an easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M39	3	1	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	2	2	404 base	8	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	3
LB drops into line lane; Onwenu(+1) picks him up and seals him as Ruiz(+0.5) and Bredeson(+0.5) crunch the NT. No attempt to get to the MLB but he’s trying to read and react in a gap and Charbonnet is going to win the race to the first down marker every time.
M42	1	10	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	PA wheel	Bell	Inc
PA; Collins drives off the safety on a post as Bell(route+) goes out and then up on a CB, getting a hard bite and breaking open by a good 5 yards. Patterson overthrows him by one. (IN, 1, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
M42	2	10	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	5
Another astounding missed read from Patterson(-2), who gets orbit motion from Bell that comes back the other way. DE turns shoulders, no scrape coming, M has blockers for both edge defenders and a pitchman. With 7 on 6 in box again M is going to have a tough time. Bredeson(+1) is able to shove his guy far enough down the line to allow Charbonnet(+1) to run past a DE who McKeon can’t do anything with as he slants across. Ruiz(+1) and Onwenu(+1) fire off the NT, with Ruiz getting a second level block. Charbonnet is able to run through the DE tackle and crunch for a solid gain.
M47	3	5	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	Dumpoff	Charbonnet	0
Patterson has time and should get to find an open downfield receiver but this is another seven man zone he struggled against last year and after a beat he checks down to Charbonnet, who has zero chance. I don’t think he even looked at his awesome WRs to the field. (TA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Fake punt succeeds, 0-7, 2 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O33	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	TE Y cross	Eubanks	24
All day for Patterson as it’s seven man protection vs four rushers. M runs flood with the three WRs and Patterson hits Eubanks in stride for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1; max pro plus zone beater vs zone)
O9	1	G	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	404 base	7.5	Run	Power O	Turner	3
Great play by an Army LB who’s blitzing at the snap to read the G pull and regap or this is close to a TD. Bredeson(+1) thunks the NT, moves him. Onwenu(+1) is pulling and gets a blitzing LB; he IDs the guy and flings him upfield. Nice gap but then the other LB shows. Eubanks(+0.5) gets him okay but Turner has to pick back inside and only gets three. I would not normally issue these grades for a three yard run but Army dude just got a +2.
O6	2	G	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Pass	Waggle drag	Black	Inc
Black motions in to a wing TE spot, drags across formation, LB bites on PA, Black open for almost certain TD, hit, routine drop. Ouch. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +1)
O6	3	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	In	Collins	Inc (Pen +4)
Live I thought this was a bad throw the penalty bailed out nope this goes just over Collins’s outstretched hand and the DB has wrapped his arm around Collins’s waist. Easy call, TD without interference. (CA, 0, protection 2/2)
O2	1	G	Ace 3TE	1	3	1	4-3 under	9	Run	Down G	Charbonnet	2
Easy TD as M goes under center and brings out some last year stuff. Onwenu(+1) pulls and obliterates edge guy. Eubanks(+1) fires in DE a long way. Giant gap. All(+0.5) pulls around and gives a game effort on a LB; he stands him up, not moving the guy but he’s a WR. None of the other Army guys have a shot. Mayfield and Ruiz shot a DL down but get split by him; he’s able to contact just before the goal line, fruitlessly. Push for them. Bredeson(-0.5) had a missed read at the beginning but is able to recover and get a shove in; Charbonnet(+0.5) has to regap around this and does. Nice feet.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 1 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O21	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Sack	N/A	-7
Corner blitz that Turner(-2) fails to read until it’s too late; Patterson is sack-stripped from his blindside. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-7, EO1Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M6	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	7.5	Run	RPO IZ	Charbonnet	4
Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+0.5) double through the playside tackle with Onwenu jarring and sealing the MLB. Mayfield(+0.5) gets a solid kick. Charbonnet has to dodge an arm tackle from a falling DT and is off balance when the overhang S comes up. M has no block for him and he holds a well-blocked play down. RPS -1.
M10	2	6	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	Nickel even	6.5	Run	Arc IZ	Charbonnet	7
This is debatably a missed pull by Patterson, who has a shuffle end he could certainly test. The shuffle end is held for a moment. MLB blitz is timed really well and ends up hammering through McKeon(-0.5), who has a tough job but does almost let this blitzer through to Charbonnet. Line slants away, Ruiz(+0.5) and Bredeson(+0.5) fire the NT way down the line as Mayfield(+1) seals a DL after getting a yard of depth with help from Onwenu(+1), who popped off to get the last LB. Charbonnet is about to pop through to the secondary when the shuffle end gets him.
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Run	RPO stretch	Charbonnet	2 (Pen -8)
So I don’t get the structure here. M threatens an RPO slant that holds a linebacker back and then they run a stretch away from this. It would be almost impossible to have this play make the RPO aspect useful. Hayes(-2) and Bredeson(-1) get split by the playside end, with Hayes holding him. Onwenu(-1) does not read the slant and chip a DE Mayfield has a slim chance of doing anything with. Charbonnet cuts up and gets whacked.
M9	1	19	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Arc power	Charbonnet	11
Bell pulls around as the arc blocker, interesting tweak. Patterson(+0.5) looking at a free overhang guy and a shuffle end, give. Power. Onwenu(+1) and Mayfield(+0.5) hammer the playside DT downfield and get in the MLB’s way. Mayfield falls, so the LB can jump over him and get in an ankle tackle attempt. Doesn’t come off but does slow Charbonnet. Bredeson(+1) pulled around and thunked a DE inside, good adjustment as he’s diving inside. McKeon(+0.5) comes in and get a LB trying to set the edge. Charbonnet(+1) jets through this gap right at the moment McKeon makes contact and is able to dodge the LB, but this makes him easier to clean up for the rest of the D. He runs through a second tackle for some more YAC.
M20	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Out	Collins	14
Corner blitz almost gets Charbonnet but he’s able to find it and hit the dude. This gives Patterson time to loop a lovely touch pass to Collins over a reasonably well positioned zone defender. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
M34	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 base	7.5	Run	RPO stretch	VanSumeren	3
Again: don’t get it. Same thing Charbonnet just got two yards on. Reasonably well blocked except for McKeon(-1) getting tossed aside even after Mayfield gives him a chip. Onwenu(+0.5) stops and cuts off a slanter; Mayfield(+1) got the good chip and then gets playside LB. McKeon’s guy comes off to tackle after a short gain; otherwise BVS probably gets 6-8 depending on how badly he plows the overhang DB. BVS(-3) then fumbles. Goodbye, other running backs.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-7, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	6
2:46 on clock to start drive. Dropback, all day, Patterson doesn’t find anyone and breaks the pocket. He’s got a nice gain, and then he slides to snap three yards off of it. Ban slides! (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
M29	2	4	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Tunnel screen	Bell	3
Tunnel against a five man rush is solid as Black(+0.5) and Ruiz(+0.5) get slid blocks but Bell(-2) goes big and then goes home. He’s obviously got the first down and 8 or so yards, plus a clock stoppage but inexplicably tries to spin past a guy and is lucky he didn’t get called for a one yard gain after mostly giving back all the yardage. (CA, 3, screen)
M32	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	0
Ugh, the most infuriating thing is CBs ten yards off on third and one and Michigan can’t run a damn smoke. Borges-esque. Instead Michigan runs into the teeth of a run blitz on a no-read IZ. Onwenu(-1) doesn’t recognize the run blitz and Mayfield(-1) can’t do anything with it, and that guy goes direct to the backfield to crunch Charbonnet. RPS -1. Michigan had a shot at defending this but just guh.
M32	4	1	Shotgun 4-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 under	8	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	2 (Pen +5)
Tempo, M catches Army with a 12th guy on the field, RPS +1. Extended doubles, no LB level cared about, Ruiz(+0.5) and Onewnu(+0.5) get the requisite push.
M37	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6	Penalty	False start	Ruiz	-5
So that whole tunnel fiasco means M has moved 14 yards in 1:20 and has blown half their time. Woof. Also now Ruiz(-1) falls over.
M32	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6	Pass	TE cross	McKeon	13
OLB hard off the edge; Hayes can’t really get him but does push him around at ten yards. Rest of the protection is good so Patterson can step up and fire it to a pretty well covered McKeon. Two yards short of the first down, so clock runs. Penalty hurts. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
M45	2	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Pass	Sack	Patterson	0
Patterson exits the pocket for no reason. He’s going to have two quick routes wide open if he has patience. Pretty pretty bad. (TAX, N/A, protection 2/2)
M45	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	5
Army seems to think playside is the other side of Charbonnet; LB level moves right as play goes left. Wide open for M as Onwenu(+1) hammers a linebacker; Mayfield(+1) gets a big kick; Ruiz(+0.5) seals a guy slanting across him. Seems like bust by Army. Charbonnet(-1) tries to break to the sideline and gives up four or five yards.
50	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	7	Penalty	False start	Ruiz	-5
Ruiz(-1) doesn’t snap it when he’s supposed to snap it.
M45	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6	Pass	Improv	McKeon	Inc
Five man blitz is chaotic but Michigan picks it up. Hayes puts his guy on the ground; Patterson bugs out. He bugs out into trouble and turfs a ball in the general area of McKeon. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
M45	2	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	TE seam	McKeon	22
Four verts, big gap between LB level and safety, easy read and strike from Patterson. Could be better as the ball does take McKeon off his feet, but it wasn’t a bad throw, per se. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Charbonnet	6
Army in parking lot. Charbonnet sees no blitz and leaks out, which converts a DE trying to check him into a blitzer with no pickup; Patterson has hitched up three times already before checking down to Charbonnet. Meh. I don’t know how you’re not running a hitch on the sideline against this coverage. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O27	2	4	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	TE out	Eubanks	Inc
Patterson zings this way wide of Eubanks. Probable PI since uncatchable is usually applied only to balls that no one could ever catch, but it’s a miss either way. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, refs -1)
O27	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6	Pass	Zone read keeper	Patterson	-11
Extremely bad. This is an attempt to get a few yards and kick a field goal. There is literally no one within ten yards of either WR to the field. Throw a bubble. Army has a press CB to the boundary, which is a CB blitz. Patterson pulls on the DE dive but I’m not minusing for this since Charbonnet’s going to get hammered anyway. Grounding is immaterial. RPS -3.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(55), 7-14, EOH. This drive was all kinds of gross. Then the Jackson KR gets called back.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M16	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Run	RPO IZ	Charbonnet	1
Patterson(-1) seems to have an obvious throw read here but hands off. Mayfield(-1) gets an interior step from a standup DE but doesn’t alert to the likely result of this. He fires at the DE and hits him and then comes back to the OLB after. That guy has already slanted inside McKeon, who has no chance to prevent this, into the backfield. Charbonnet is cut off from the frontside of the play and forced back into unblocked guys. This is essentially a nine man run D. No RPS minus because the RPO is there. Ruiz(+1) crushed his guy at least; Onwenu(+0.5) got a good second level block.
M17	2	9	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	404 nickel	6.5	Pass	RPO slant	Black	Inc
McCaffrey in. Fed up with Patterson’s reads? This is definitely an RPO but it looks like McCaffrey is making this read presnap. Army does clear the underneath level. McCaffrey doesn’t throw right away after aborting the mesh but hunches briefly, allowing a DB to react, and then he throws it way upfield. Don’t know if Collins is an option here but wide open. Also: BUBBLE FFS. (IN, 0, RPO)
M17	3	9	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-1
Patterson. Mayfield(-1) gets off his block to get an edge blitzer late and Patterson moves up in the pocket. He immediately decides to run instead of move up to buy time and get to an open receiver and runs himself into a sack. (TA, N/A, protection ½)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-14, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M22	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	6
Army DT might bust here as he runs away from the play and no one replaces him. Ruiz(+0.5) duly shoves him past; Onwenu(+1) goes and gets a second level block. Mayfield and McKeon double a guy and get him off the LOS but no one releases. Charbonnet could try to threaten one gap and then hit the other but takes the guaranteed chunk of yards, which is fine. Hayes(+1) and Bredeson(+1) had successfully reached other DT and Charbonnet might have a cutback to get more but tough to see.
M28	2	4	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Run	RPO IZ	Charbonnet	6
Blitz off the edge where there’s no eligible; he’s through clean but Charbonnet(+1) steps through his tackle as blitzer’s initial angle is to QB; Patterson is looking to the other side of the field for a potential RPO. Blocking is a strange dance; Mayfield(+0.5) helps a guy kick himself out. Ownenu(+1) and Ruiz(+1) bury the NT and open up a big gap. WLB is free after a bout two; Charbonnet trucks him for 4 YAC.
M34	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	2
Three man rush converts to four when Charbonnet runs at a LB to hit him, okay. Nobody is anywhere near Patterson when he bugs out at scrambles for a few. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
M36	2	8	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	404 base	7.5	Run	RPO IZ	Charbonnet	0
Army LBs are backing out so Patterson gives; Eubanks actually cuts under one of them so he’s open, wonder if this should be a pass anyway? M eats a run blitz, with Hayes(-1) moving out to an OLB who’s force and has Collins on him. Bredeson pops off his block late as he sees the problem; Charbonnet cuts behind. Ruiz(-1) did not perceive the army run slant and releases into nobody downfield. RPS -1.
M36	3	8	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Fly	Collins	Inc (Pen +15)
Hayes(-2) gets spun through immediately. Patterson has to get rid of it and chucks it at Collins. Collins is against a CB with ten yards of cushion so he can’t get over the top but the CB never gets his head around on a ball way inside and interferes with Collins’s ability to get back to it. (MA, 0, protection 0/2)
O49	1	10	?	?	?	?	?	?	Run	?	Charbonnet	0
Tape doesn’t have this play.
O49	2	10	?	?	?	?	?	?	Pass	?	Black	1
Same.
O48	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 base	7	Pass	In	Collins	18
Hopeless corner blitz from the far end of the field doesn’t even get to Onwenu, really, before the ball is out; Collins(route+) sells outside and then breaks in on the safety trying to cover, wide open pitch and catch for a chunk, RPS +2, (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O30	1	10	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Charbonnet	3
Also missing.
O27	2	7	Shotgun 2TE tight	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	RPO flat	Eubanks	0
S running at this hard so it’s probably only going to be a modest gain; Patterson airmails it. (IN, 0, RPO)
O27	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide tight	1	1	3	404 nickel	6	Pass	Cross	Bell	25
Maaan. Another three man rush. Patterson has the patience to wait it out this time. He comes to Bell crossing the field and either brilliantly avoids a zone defender or is lucky to throw the ball behind Bell, thus avoiding a pick. I think the latter. The DB literally steps out of the way just as Patterson’s throwing. Lucky. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
O2	1	G	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	2	2	Goal line	10	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	1
Zero read on this, Army sends a guy off the edge who doesn’t have to bother with Patterson and he tackles after a minimal gain. Patterson turns his back and loops around. RPS -1. Eubanks(+0.5) and McKeon(+0.5) probably did enough on the edge to get a TD if this doesn’t happen.
O1	2	G	Shotgun 3TE	1	3	1	Goal line	10	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	1
All in a wing spot; he motions across. Then he pulls back across the formation. Eubanks is hitting a DE inside of him, which is by design; All(+0.5) runs up and stops him. Onwenu(+2) immediately pancakes a DT and Mayfield(+0.5) gets a free release thanks to the All block and gets a second level player.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-14, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M32	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Pass	Flare screen	Bell	9
Hooray, they finally go after Army for playing so soft. Easy pickings. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1). Why did it take three quarters to do this?
M41	2	1	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	0
Hayes(-1) and Bredeson(-1) get a stunt that they fail to pick up. OLB right in the lane; Mayfield(-0.5) driven back by a OLB a bit; he’s pushing but Charbonnet has to cut to the shuffle end, and he tackles. Ruiz(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) both moved guys; could have been successful.
M41	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	6
Bubble; M gets their assignments right as they run at it. McKeon(+0.5) slows up and hits the shuffle end as he tries to come down. Mayfield(+0.5) gets a free release hit on the WLB; Onwenu(+0.5) tosses his guy along the line, and Charbonnet(+0.5) quickly shifts into the gap.
M47	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	TE cross	Eubanks	Inc
Late movement from Army as their CB bails on Black a la that OU interception last year. Flood again; this time Army is waiting for it and a safety is able to break on the ball and get a quality PBU. Patterson probably didn’t have anything else so the attempt is fine. (CA, 0, protection 2/2, RPS -1)
M47	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	3
No read here; if there is one it’s not blocked like it. McKeon kicks out an overhang LB who’s nominally the shuffle end. DE slants hard inside and gets blocked by Mayfield(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) with Mayfield climbing to the MLB. There’s a gap. With a free hitter in it, who started at four yards deep. Charbonnet tries to burrow along the line for a few and does. RPS -1.
50	3	7	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Cross	Bell	11
Four man rush with a delayed blitzer who Onwenu and Charbonnet both pick up. That dude goes down in a heap. Nice pocket, Patterson hangs in and delivers a strike to Bell. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O39	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	404 base	7	Pass	RPO slant	Bell	12
Army OLB appears to tip his blitz; Patterson points him out and RPOs over his head. With CBs bailing on the outside Black is also wide wide open. (CA, 3, RPO, Patterson +1) I need some sort of read metric? All this RPOs are breaking my system.
O27	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	2
Hayes(-2) runs by a first level defender who gets left for McKeon without a chip. McKeon is off the LOS and has no shot at this block. He engages but his dude is in a gap at the LOS. Charbonnet could try to bounce to the boundary; instead he tries to poke to the backside. Nothing there as a DT essentially cut blocked the interior OL, 1960s style, and no read means free hitter. RPS -1.
O25	2	8	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Waggle improv	Eubanks	5
Second and eight PA on a stretch they haven’t run well all day. Basic waggle stuff; Army covers all of it. Patterson does a good job to stay on the move and find a small window to get Eubanks a few yards. (CA+, 2, protection N/A, RPS –1)
O20	3	3	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	404 nickel	7.5	Run	RPO power	Charbonnet	1
Line slants to this; Mayfield(-2) gets a DT slanting to him and allows him across his face. If he fires this guy inside M is in business. As it is the two pullers have to try to make it work inside, where there is no room. Bredeson(-0.5) hits Mayfield’s guy instead of going in the gap; Eubanks goes in the gap, hitting one of the two guys in there. Charbonnet gets stuck by the second. Onwenu(+1) killed the other DT.
O19	4	2	Shotgun 2-back twins tight	2	1	2	404 base	8	Run	Bash?	Charbonnet	-4
I’d have to see this work before figuring out what the point was. Most of the line blocks left. Mayfield feints that way and then tries to release to the right, trying to climb to the playside LB. M trying to flank Army to the outside to the right then. I guess Bell(-1) and BVS(-1) are supposed to get blocks in on the two edge guys who come tearing off the corner, but Bell gets cut off by Mayfield and BVS has no shot. RPS -3, this is an attempt at a home run ball on fourth and two. I defy anyone to tell me that consecutive Mason dives don’t get this.
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 14-14, 9 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M16	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	404 nickel	6.5	Run	Outside zone	Turner	6 + 15 pen
Onwenu(+2) gets a bonafide reach block, yow. McKeon(+1) shoots his guy down the line and locks him out. Ruiz(+1) climbs to an kicks out a LB; Mayfield(+1) extends to a safety. M blocks this the last man, a safety who is at 15 yards and backing out on the snap and does an incredible job to come down and chop Turner down after six yards. He is flying full speed, this is like a +2 safety tackle. Turner starts going down and gets clocked by an Army guy’s shoulder. This is called targeting, which may be the letter of the law but what is this guy supposed to do? Refs +2.
M37	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Run	Outside zone	Charbonnet	2
Other way, no reach this time. McKeon(+1) is able to drive his kick far enough to create a lane anyway. Hayes(-1) releases to the second level and hits a guy Ruiz is already bothering. I get it but he’s missed an overhang LB to the field, and he gets a free run at Charbonnet.
M39	2	8	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	5
Looks like a scrape for Army but the scrape backer is barely thinking Patterson is a threat to keep and never actually gets outside. Handoff into a lot of dudes. It’s bad when your split zone doesn’t have a whisper of an option for a backside cut or a keep. Gap as Mayfield(+1) gets a big kick and Onwenu(+1) neutralizes a DT slanting to him. Collins(-2) wanders off the LOS, drifts outside, and blocks no one. He could have got the overhang LB. Instead that guy runs right at Charbonnet and tackles.
M44	3	3	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	7.5	Run	RPO IZ	Charbonnet	4
RPO threat does hold the WLB long enough for Charbonnet to get across the line after McKeon(+0.5) gets a free kickout and Mayfield(+2) crumples the DT to the ground. Charbonnet cuts smartly off Mayfield and gets it easily.
M49	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	404 base	7.5	Run	Outside zone	Charbonnet	3
I don’t get the actions here from the OL as they don’t try to flank and pass off the OLB to the playside; this is almost like Hayes(-1) and Bredeson are running IZ and the rest of the line is OZ. So instead of stepping left, chipping with McKeon, and having Hayes step around the two guys drive the OLB straight back and McKeon has no angle to the playside LB. Charbonnet gets pushed wide and chased down.
O48	2	7	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	QB pin and pull	Patterson	4
This ends up looking extremely strange as none of the interior OL really have anyone to block but only Ruiz pulls immediately. Hayes(-2) blocks down on a DT who is shaded inside of Bredeson instead of pulling around. McKeon(+2) hammers the OLB in and seals him. This is going to work great except there’s no one for a kick on the overhang guy because Hayes didn’t pull. Patterson is forced inside, Ruiz loses his blocking angle, and this is not a conversion.
O44	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 under	8	Run	Arc IZ	Charbonnet	1
Army scrape exchange, give, you cannot just get scrape exchanged and kill the QB runs with no compensation. Backside end is coming down hard the whole time and tackles, RPS -2. Bredeson(+2) immediate pancake on DT. McKeon(+1) got his guy kicked out. Hayes(+0.5) found a second level guy. The gap is there if M is not getting RPSed. Charbonnet(-1) should probably be extending away from the crashing DE and testing the outside.
O43	4	2	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	404 base	8	Run	Arc IZ	Charbonnet	1
AYFKM. M runs the same thing. Army has a run blitz that times up the snap. Guy roars upfield at McCaffrey, must give. OLB dives inside on McKeon, McKeon pushes. OLB scrapes around free and hammers Charbonnet. Eubanks has no one he can block. RPS -3. Meanwhile look at your two WRs.
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 14-14, 2 min 4th Q. OT next for O.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	7	Run	Power O	Charbonnet	4
Jet fake, power the other way. Onwenu(+1) and Mayfield crunch a DT, he’s gone, Mayfield moves to the second level where he gives back a plus with a weak second level block. Bredeson(+0.5) pulls, kick. McKeon gets a push against an Army LB who weirdly dives into him and shoves hi back. Charbonnet(+0.5) cuts inside of this and goes but an unblocked guy coming in pushes him into Mayfield’s guy.
O29	2	6	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	404 nickel	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	0
Hayes(-2) driven back by a DE, which is a problem. Line slants to the play and jams everything up. Bredeson(+0.5) and Ruiz(+0.5) kill a guy but the slant and the Hayes block cover it up. Mostly the Hayes block. Onwenu(+1) also woops a guy.
O29	3	6	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Drag	Bell	17
Mayfield(-1) insanely tries to chase a guy around on a stunt when Onwenu (gold star) is very willing to pass him off. This leads to a brief moment where Onwenu is blocking two dudes. This gives Patterson just enough time to hang in and find Bell as he breaks to the sideline on his drag. (CA, 3, protection 2/3, Onwenu gold starrrr). This play alone wins Onwenu Mr. Worldwide.
O12	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	RPO slant	Black	Inc (Pen +9)
This is not a good spot for an RPO since the WRs all have man coverage and the read is immaterial; this just turns into a slant that’s covered but you have to throw. DB does get there early and PBU; refs(+1) throw a flag in a situation where it’s not always called. Yeah, it’s PI. But it might fall under rubbin’s racin’. I’d probably push this coverage. (CA, 0, RPO)
O3	1	G	Shotgun 3TE	1	3	1	4-3 under	9	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	3
So good from Charbonnet(+1), who has to regap as a slant crosses Eubanks’s face; he does this with barely any loss in momentum and then bulls his way into the endzone for the rest. This is why he’s going to be a dude.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-21, EO1OT
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	404 base	6.5	Pass	Post	Collins	Inc
Double posts, deep S goes with Black in the slot, Collins(route +) wins and has two steps. Patterson airmails it out of the endzone. Injury, probably. Frustrating because even if you leave this short it’s a TD or PI. Give your man a chance! (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O25	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Hitch	Black	Inc
Hitch, wide open, easy. Patterson throws a wobbler that is catchable but much tougher than it has to be and Black can’t make the catch. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
O25	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	Hitch	Black	Inc
This one is nowhere near. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(43), 24-21, EOG for O.

I am going to boil myself.

In what?

Sadness.

well…

TALK ME OUT OF IT

oil is traditional

YOU'RE NOT TALKING ME OUT OF IT

Look, man, this was bad. It was bad in two specific ways that are potentially bad, like, continually. I'm more than willing to write off a Ben VanSumeren fumble as just one of those things, because the over/under on VanSumeren non-garbage time carries the rest of the year is 10. Other stuff makes me worry.

LIKE RUNNING FOR 100 YARDS 3.3 AT A TIME LIKE IT'S 1956?!?!

Well, yeah.

So… I had a lot of problems with what Michigan was trying to do. Also: what they were not trying to do. Things actually started well, with Michigan's RPO stuff holding Army second-level players deep. This ends up being a six man box even if you count the safety creeping down to replace the OLB:

Army OLB to top

Hooray. But then easy wins went away; at the same time Army was racking up big RPS minuses for Michigan on critical downs.

Michigan's offensive structure got them very few wins after the first couple drives, and no real shots at a chunk play aside from the Ronnie Bell wheel route Patterson missed. From time to time you're going to find yourself in a position where you lose tactically; it happens. In this game there was too much of this, a well-blocked play that ends after four yards because a safety at eight yards doesn't have a blocker…

…and not enough of this, which exploited Army's incredibly soft coverage.

Part two of the two-minute drill's dissolution was a third and one on which Michigan got stuffed thanks to a safety blitz—the kind of blitz Army almost certainly wouldn't dare if their CBs had to come to the line of scrimmage. The "what's wrong with this picture" picture will look familiar to that guy who got pepper sprayed at Penn State during 27 for 27:

Yup.

Not this Borges stuff again.

Yup! Army played a million miles off for most of the game and Michigan ran one (1) play that took advantage of this. The fourth and two on which Michigan got downloaded had the same defensive structure:

So did the field side of the formation on the –11 yard run at the end of the first half. Army runs a CB blitz on which the FS and an OLB move out to cover the boundary WR. Is there any chance Army is running this if they aren't permitted to put their corners on Bell and Black literally ten yards off the LOS?

No. That would be suicidal. So allowing Army to do this not only spurns the yards you get when you run a bubble but puts the rest of your offense in trouble because Army can run all kinds of weird crap.

There's been some talk about how this is a situation where Patterson shouldn't have pulled, which is true but in the sense that eleven yard losses are worse than zero-yard runs—the backside DE is going to clock Charbonnet right after the handoff if Patterson gives. There's no way out.

The fourth downs stood out as particularly horrible.

Yeah. I will repeat for the Nth time that it makes no sense that Michigan's default approach on third and three isn't Ben Mason dives behind Onwenu, especially this version of Onwenu. I'll believe that doesn't pick up three yards in two tries when I see it.

Instead, Michigan's most important blockers on their first failed fourth down attempt were Ronnie Bell and Ben VanSumeren.

And really, Bell's cut off by Mayfield releasing, he doesn't even have a shot at his guy. That looks like a genuine both-sidelines play on which Michigan's trying to run bash to get outside a shuffle defensive end quickly. Possibly a good idea on second and seven. On fourth and two not so much.

On fourth down #2 Army runs an arc-defeating blitz with an OLB ripping across the line to force a give. Eubanks arcs to nobody because Army knows there's not going to be a keep, and the backside DE is completely free to hammer Charbonnet:

Charbonnet is going so vertical there on the handoff that he has no alternative but to eat the LB. And Eubanks isn't doing anything. The best spin you can put on this is that this was a missed assignment from Eubanks. It looks like an RPS –3 at the worst possible time.

Why didn't the QBs pull the damn ball?

Seth went into detail about the pull or not to pull dilemma faced by Michigan QBs in this game. Live I felt like it was there every play, like it was against MTSU; on review that was not the case, with Army shading the gray area extremely well and using scrape exchanges, or at least the threat of them, to induce a bunch of gives.

The thing that rankles is that Michigan didn't even try, really. Never pulling gave Army the confidence that their shuffle would be enough and therefore it was.

And then sometimes it absolutely was there. This play features a crashing DE who turns his hips and an OLB to the hypothetical pull side who takes two steps inside by the time the mesh happens. Michigan has Bell as a crack blocker on him. If not now, when?

Army DE and OLB to bottom

Two plays later the most boggling decision of the game. End turns his shoulders; there's no scrape; Eubanks will arc out to the overhanging safety, and Bell is available for a pitch:

Michigan gets some yards because Charbonnet breaks a tackle at the LOS; OL had little chance to deal with that because everyone's slanting playside and the end crashing means there's no backside gap. A pull there has a very good chance to be a giant play. That was the first time they reversed Bell's momentum on orbit, too: if anything you should be biasing towards a pull so your new play gets run.

Not pulling on these plays not only robs you of the yards you were going to get but sets up further runs down the road where your lack of threat on the pull strips yards out of even your successful interior runs. The weird camera angle Fox used when Michigan was backed up was perfect for this on this Charbonnet run Michigan blocks to the secondary. Yeah, Army has a shuffle end nominally on the QB. He's able to react so fast after the mesh point that he makes a tackle on a play multiple gaps away from him:

Army DE to right

That end has no indecision in his mind. His weight is always poised to flow to the back. So yeah, maybe that's a by-the-book give. But if you let this be a by-the-book give every time you let Army have it both ways. The end knows it's a give as long as he gives you token resistance, and he gets to make plays on the back too.

By the fourth quarter Michigan seemed to have given up on it. There were several plays with no apparent read, and a blocking scheme in which there was no unblocked player.

So what are you supposed to do?

There's a lot of stuff designed to attack shuffle ends since they're extremely common. Michigan even uses one as a staple: split zone. The super baffling thing is they barely ran split zone in this game. It was used on two short-yardage touchdowns and one five yard run on which Collins ate a –2 for not blocking the guy who ended up tackling.

Other than that Michigan ignored the other half of the arc package. The third and three before the second disastrous fourth down is a scrape exchange, which split zone is great on because the crashing DE gets kicked and the LB runs himself out of the play. Bredeson puts a DT on his ass, but Eubanks runs past the DE on the arc:

Split zone wins here; split zone is great against exchanges; split zone is literally the play you are faking when you run arc. Split zone was a success all three times it was run in this game. Where the hell were the other 10 instances of it?

And THE TWO MINUTE DRILL SUCKED AGAIN

Well… this one was more general malaise than last year's unceasing inability to be faster than the slowest possible version of football. The two minute drill was submarined in a number of ways things started going wrong on the second play, when Ronnie Bell turned this…

…into third down. Clock runs. On third down Michigan gets stuffed for zero yards. Clock runs. Michigan gets it on fourth down, Army gets an illegal substitution penalty, and now they've gone 14 yards in 1:20. Ruiz immediately takes a penalty, so this slick completion to McKeon is two yards short of the sticks:

Clock runs. Patterson exits the pocket for no reason and gets a zero-yard run; clock runs. Charbonnet runs to pick up the first; clock runs. Ruiz false start; you take a timeout to prevent a runoff. Now you've moved 27 yards and there are 33 seconds on the clock.

The two minute drill was an artifact of having a sucky offense and not necessarily Michigan's old bad tempo things.

So this is fun.

I don't want to overstate things. This is one game, a nine-possession one in which Michigan gained 315 yards. Their QB was clearly gimpy and they fumbled three times. This wasn't at the level of some other debacles in the recent past. It was very bad.

But at least that's the only thing that is a worry going forward.

uh

oh hell no

so

FINE JUST SAY IT

I kind of think Shea Patterson might just be Shea Patterson, last year edition, and that's all the Shea there is. This is a pretty good quarterback. It's not a guy who is going to shoot off to the first round of the draft and also give us the nice feels that come from doing good important football things.

SHEA PATTERSON

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
MTSU	2	14(3)	3		4	3(1)		1	2	4(2)*	2*		70%	-
Army	1	17(2)+++	1		1	3		-	6*	5	-		61%	-

Also of note: I had Patterson +1.5 and –8 on the ground, three of which came from the first fumble. (I need to do something about reads now that RPOs are frequent.)

So here we are again: complaining about decisions. Patterson's late inaccuracy in this game can be attributed to his oblique injury pretty easily. We have a lot of data about Patterson's accuracy level, which is excellent. Even in this game, most of it was good until late.

We also have a lot of data about his decision-making, particularly his pocket presence. That was a consistent source of crabbing in this column last year. The hope was that an offseason with the program and more experience would mitigate that. Doesn't look like it so far.

Set aside the ground game stuff for now. That's a contentious gray area. Let's just focus on Patterson trying to find guys to throw the ball to. He doesn't do it quickly enough. The number of bang-bang instant throws in this game that were not RPOs was way too low. Patterson doesn't throw in rhythm much.

While the second fumble was 100% unavoidable, the first is an excellent example of how Patterson doesn't get the ball out quickly. This blitz comes from the LB level from a guy who takes his first step right and comes through delayed. Patterson has over three seconds to get this ball out and ends up staring right at the blitzer because he's reading drag routes across the middle. Bell is open. Patterson doesn't stand in and throw; he tries to get out of dodge, disastrously:

I think a lot of quarterbacks get that out.

Patterson also continued to struggle with the seven and eight man zones that gave him trouble a year ago. Four verts appears to be the exception to this. He again hit McKeon on four verts in this game; both of those throws were confident rhythm ones. He also hit Eubanks on the flood route Michigan ran a few times against MTSU…

…but the next time Michigan went to it Army had it defensed.

Not many other route concepts have consistently resulted in confident decisions.

Unfortunately Fox gave us almost no downfield replays in this game but this stuck out all the same. Army rushes three; Patterson appears to look only at the TE side, which has two and a half guys sitting on Eubanks at the sticks. Patterson… throws a dumpoff to Charbonnet to the same side?

Meanwhile the crossing route to Ronnie Bell that set up Michigan's second touchdown sure looked like a disaster waiting to happen; a linebacker literally moves out of the way as Patterson winds up.

I don't know if that was intentional or just dumb luck, but I think the latter.

And then: the pocket presence. For every understandable pocket exit, like a guy on a stunt threatening and Collins getting tackled, there were three WTF moments. Patterson bails on this before the corner blitzer even gets to Bredeson:

He got a little heat off the edge on the first drive of the first half and then immediately decides to take off instead of taking the extra moment he has once he slides up to find someone, as Collins is popping open:

And… like… what?

That's a pocket Patterson left. It's one thing when you're bolting at the first sign of… uh… hostile grass in a context where your offensive line is getting overrun. But once Turner went out of the game there were a total of four pass-pro minuses! By the the time Hayes got spun through for the first real pressure since fumble #2 Patterson had already racked 6 throws classified as TA (throwaways) for either dumping the ball to a guy with no hope because his timer went off or just straight up exiting pockets like the above.

That Hayes pressure ceded came with a silver lining. I mentioned this last year as well: Patterson has way too little DGAF in his game. This is, I believe, the first instance of a punt and pray to Nico Collins:

It's an extremely bad throw because he's getting lit up but it's third and eight so YOLO, and then even the bad throw gets a PI flag. That should be the default Bad Decision: punting it to one of your giant leapy guys.

McCaffrey was supposed to be this dude?

His one throw was whistled way upfield of Black; I don't think he could do much on his other two plays. On review Patterson's performance consistently frustrating but there was no moment where he was utterly lost.

And we rushed for three yards a carry. What happened to this offensive line hype?

Oh, it's still here. Michigan's problems were not on the offensive line. Well. Except for one issue.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	Total	Notes
Hayes	2	12	-10	Did not expect to see this number even as I charted it.
Bredeson	10	4	6	Sometimes hard for him to rack up the numbers because of Hayes.
Ruiz	10.5	5	5.5	Two false starts pushed M back in two minute drill.
Onwenu	22	3	19	Everyone he hit looked like Wile E Coyote post-anvil
Mayfield	13	4.5	8.5	Nice bounce back from meh first outing.
McKeon	7	1.5	5.5	Paved a couple dudes.
Eubanks	2		2	Mostly spectator as arcs were not kept.
All	1		1	Goal line only.
Muhammad				DNP
Mason				VIGIL CONTINUES
TOTAL	67.5	30	70%	Grape monster complete
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Patterson	1.5	8	-6.5	No keeps and a fumble on him.
McCaffrey				DNC
Charbonnet	7.5	2	5.5	Lot of subtle adjustments.
Turner	2		2	Limited by pass pro but did a thing.
Wilson				DNP, get well soon
VanSumeren		4	-4	Fumble.
Haskins				DNP
TOTAL	11	14	-3	Charbonnet still good.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
DPJ				DNP
Collins		2	-2	Blocking dorf.
Black	0.5		0.5
Bell		3	-3	Don't give up first downs in two minute drills.
Johnson
Sainristil			-	DNC
Jackson		2	-2	Bounced on jet.
TOTAL	0.5	7	-6.5	Secret bad thing.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	38	8	83%	Turner –4, Mayfield –2, Hayes -2
RPS	9	19	-10	M started out +5. : /

Almost without exception Michigan blew opponents off the ball. This was most frequently Mike Onwenu, who had the best game of his career per PFF and also UFR. He was crushing guys.

RG #50

He even got a bonafide reach block on a late stretch play:

RG #50

(The targeting call is bad, FWIW. That guy is approaching Turner and then he suddenly has his legs cut out from underneath him and is in a totally different position. If he'd lowered his head, okay. Hitting a guy with a shoulder and having it hit his head because someone else put his head in the kill zone can't be a call.)

And at one point Mayfield screwed up a stunt and Onwenu had to block two guys at once. No, seriously.

RG #50

I need to change my grading system to account for that. I know it's only happened once but got damn.

But he wasn't alone. Bredeson, Ruiz, and Mayfield also turned in smashing blocks and relatively few errors. The four sacks in this game were two Turner pickup issues and two instances where Patterson ran himself into a sack. This makes the offensive output all the more frustrating because it points back to a gameplan that resulted in 3.3 yards per carry for Charbonnet despite a hamblasting up front.

I noticed Hayes didn't make the list of guys with smashing blocks and relatively few errors.

No. This was a comedown from his opener. A bigger one than I realized until I added it up. This clip is why every take on him this offseason was "he's a year away":

LT #76

Can't get driven back two yards as an OL. That blows up an otherwise well-blocked play. Hayes also got spun through on the Collins PI incident and took a holding call on a stretch play where he  was unprepared for the DE to zip inside of him…

LT #76

…and he got blown by on a couple different blitzes:

LT #76

Aaand the whole reason Michigan needed to go for it on fourth down on their final drive was Hayes not pulling on a pin and pull.

LT #76

The guy he blocks down on is shaded inside Bredeson. He doesn't have anyone on his right shoulder, so he should be pulling. Those errors used to happen all the time before Warinner. They're rare now. They were not rare for Hayes in this game.

Runyan will be back for Wisconsin and Michigan will hope to keep Hayes on the sideline until he can beef a bit more. On the one hand: hooray, an easily dealt-with explanation for Michigan's subpar ground game. On the other: boo, tackle depth is sketchy.

How did the guy with 3.3 YPC get a really good grade?

Charbonnet didn't break anything long in this game and his stats are ugly as a result, but on a couple short yardage carries he flashed the combination of skills—along with stellar-so-far pass protection—that's likely to make him Michigan's best back since… well, it's been a while. Charbonnet's agility in the hole and ability to push guys give him high potential. This TD features a hop step that's again a little reminiscent of Chris Evans:

On this one he again regaps and then drags a guy into the endzone.

He's gonna be a dude.

His blocking remained absurdly good. Ace pointed this out already but I need this clip too:

He didn't bust anything for a second straight week and his block attempts are authoritative—no cuts where a guy gets up later. He gets you and you're done.

Uh… I may be coming around to your Tru Wilson hot takes.

Right? Imagine the first half of this game with Wilson in Turner's spot on the two fumbles. Slightly different situation involving far less terror. Wilson's never doing this:

RB #3

Turner justifiably got the hook for most of the rest of the game. If Patterson was sped up with Charbonnet next to him, I can't imagine what he would have been doing with Turner in there.

Turner did dust an Army linebacker in the hole on one of his few carries:

I still think he's going to be very good for Michigan. He needs some more time in the oven if the pass protection is an accurate reflection of his ability.

Any interesting cameos?

Giles Jackson had an excellent kick return on which he showed his absurd stop-start; he also got in for an early jet sweep that went poorly. This got extended to the sideline:

It seems like every Michigan player who gets an edge run needs to bounce it into nothing 1-3 times before they pay attention to the person screaming about blockers and how they are occasionally useful. Instead of something between 3 and lots of yards, depending on how Mayfield does with the inside-out block he's trying to execute, Jackson got zero.

Receivers? 

Chart:

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

	THIS WEEK					SEASON
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
DPJ
Collins	3			2/2		3		1/1	4/5
Black	2		1/2	1/2		3		1/2	6/7
Bell		0/1	1/1	6/6		3	0/2	2/3	6/6
Johnson							1/1	1/1
Sainristil						1
Jackson
McKeon				2/2		2	0/1		4/4
Eubanks	3		1/1	1/1		1		1/1	2/2
All
Mason
Charbonnet			0/1	2/2		2		0/1	4/4
Turner									1/1
Wilson
VanSumeren

Routes: Bell ++, Collins ++.

Black had one routine drop on a drive where M eventually scored and then the tough out in overtime he couldn't bring in. Everything else was very boring.

Heroes?

Mike Onwenu and the rest of the non-Hayes OL. Charbonnet, despite the wonky stats.

Maybe not so heroic?

Hayes really landed with a thud. Patterson put up a 61% DSR in a low pressure situation. Turner was more or less directly responsible for 2 turnovers. The gameplan started off pretty well and then Michigan was completely out of ideas.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and beyond?

Welp. This game pointed to large transition costs and rather dented Gattis optimism. Plenty of time to turn it around but, I mean, you pick up a –10 RPS in week two and this is our concern.

If you're going to run arc you should run a bunch of split zone. Just saying.

Fix perimeter issues. Just steal the MTSU playbook and stick a dozen of their plays in. Allowing DBs to play way off has a cascade effect on everything else and cannot be tolerated. Also: hey, free yards!

OL is tracking well. Mayfield had some issues in game one but performed very well here, and replacing Hayes with Runyan should be a big help on the ground.

Either Patterson's injury is hampering him or this is just who he is. If it's the latter I don't think Michigan's going to have a great season. Just too many plays that get killed by his happy feet and lack of YOLO.

Ronnie Bell: ah, so that's why. He did look pretty good, with an athletic leaping catch behind him. Needs the DON'T GIVE YARDS BACK yelling-at. In other WR news, for the love of god can we get one punt to Collins per quarter?

Charbonnet: real deal. Did as well as he could in trying circumstances and added another half-dozen thunderous blitz pickups to his sample size. Michigan will welcome Tru Wilson back for his pass protection but I think his shot at starting has been Wally Pipped.

Bring back Ben Mason plz. If Onwenu's going to do this, just run behind him to freedom and first downs.