Member for

4 years 11 months
Points
6491.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
10/21/2018 - 4:29pm Also forgot: Team B’s single…

Also forgot: Team B’s single loss was by one score at night away game to an undefeated CFP team. 

10/19/2018 - 4:53pm He also plans to visit Penn…

He also plans to visit Penn State, Stanford (where his father went to school), and Michigan (where his mother went to medical school).

"Dr. Johnson & Mr. Johnson? Welcome to campus!  We'd like to introduce you to Dr. Jones & Mrs. Peoples......"

10/19/2018 - 4:51pm No, those were both 2020…

No, those were both 2020 recruits I think.

10/16/2018 - 9:45pm There is no damned way White…

There is no damned way White comes back for our game. Did you see the video of his injury?

10/14/2018 - 10:54am Great game in almost every…

Great game in almost every respect. Stadium and crowd looked electric on TV  

One of my favorite post game moments was seeing Winovich recruit the hell out of a few clearly star struck recruits standing on the sideline as he went into the tunnel after the game. 

Hope last night really made an impression on the kids visiting yesterday. My understanding is that it was a pretty big recruiting weekend for us. 

10/14/2018 - 10:51am Wondered the same thing. I’m…

Wondered the same thing. I’m no strategist but maybe Wisconsin’s line up and strength just doesn’t suit him? Seems like he does better when he’d outweigh this poor defensive player by 30-40 LBs. 

10/14/2018 - 10:48am True, although last night…

True, although last night our DL was getting outright tackled by Wisconsin’s OL on several occasions. I don’t think we got a single holding call or maybe 1 if we did. 

10/10/2018 - 11:29am No.

No.

10/06/2018 - 12:13pm Yeah, that's my question too…

Yeah, that's my question too.

 

I'm in Chicagoland and the game is on ABC 7.  We want to record the game & then watch it later tonight.  We don't want to discover later that we didn't get 100% of the game on the DVR.

If I simply extend out & record the 30 minute post game show & also the Florida State vs. Miami game that is on ABC 7 after our game, will that be enough?

Or would they move all/part of the game to some ESPN alternative channel?  If they do, where do we find that information so I can make sure to record the correct channel?

10/05/2018 - 1:36am I think you’ve got a typo in…

I think you’ve got a typo in your post. It seems that you wrote “Winovich” instead of “Hart”. 

10/03/2018 - 5:32pm Dwumfor is like the inverse…

Dwumfor is like the inverse JBB.

 

 

10/02/2018 - 2:00pm Definitely don’t look at the…

Definitely don’t look at the video. Brian linked it in his “Unverified Voracity” post today at the bottom, and I made the mistake of clicking the link. 

10/02/2018 - 1:53pm I agree this is egregious…

I agree this is egregious and should be brought to the attention of our own AD and to the Big Ten generally. However, before we do I think it’s important to anticipate and rule out other likely explanations first. 

Its the difference between being taken as wild eyed kooks versus being taken seriously.

 

I am skeptical of this explanation, but some of the Reddit users did make a credible case that this could also be due to the WAY we create sacks. One would think that the longer a play goes on & the more players who are being directly engaged by blockers, the higher the risk is that a joke takes place. 

I’m no defensive guru, but it does seem to me that the way Don Brown generates a lot of our sacks is by sending extra blitzers off the edge and through gaps at high speed, and doing stunts to increase the odds that guys are coming free into the backfield largely untouched. To me, it seems like those situations would have less opportunity for a player to commit holding as opposed to just 3-4 strong/talented DL bull rushing & engaging OL to collapse a pocket. 

Now, whether we do that far more than the other strong sack rate teams, or whether that DOES in fact reduce the opportunity for holding to take place, I don’t know. Maybe it does a lot. Maybe it doesn’t. Maybe it mitigates the outlier somewhat but it is still a significantly significant outlier when one factors all KR that into the analysis. 

The hard part would be to get the underlying data & to quantify it. One person suggested also plotting the average number of rushers defenses use on passing downs to see if there is a clear correlation. 

10/01/2018 - 2:54pm Metellus did in fact come…

Metellus did in fact come back after half time. 

09/29/2018 - 11:38pm Setting conspiracies aside,…

Setting conspiracies aside, what we should do is have one of our many analysts look at the statistical trends in penalty calls & non calls over time in the Big Ten. Then based on those trends, modify certain coaching points & modify perhaps the long term recruiting strategy RE position groups. 

For example, if refs simply don’t call offensive holding anymore, Warriner should be telling our guys to hold the hell out of the opposing team. Conversely on the defense, it may alter how we scheme against offenses.

09/29/2018 - 11:27pm As far as I can tell, our…

As far as I can tell, our defensive players started walking onto the field about nano second before the official blew the punt return play dead. 

 

 

09/28/2018 - 12:24pm Yeah, really playing this…

Yeah, really playing this Northwestern team right now is an ideal time in our schedule:

  • It's the least intimidating away game possible, so it lets us ease back into the mode of playing "away" before we head to East Lansing.

 

  • Northwestern mimics MSU's defense, so it's a good ramp-up & pre-scouting opportunity.

 

  • Northwestern has a solid front 7 and a terrifying DE, but the rest of their team is pretty bad.  This allows the coaches to see exactly how much the OTs have improved (or not) since Notre Dame now that the opposing talent is legit.  But because the rest of the squad is so bad, also allows them test out different strategies to help scheme around or shore up that deficiency WITHOUT there being a huge risk of actually losing the game barring fluke plays and our defense having a rare & uncharacteristically bad outing. Basically, a low-risk chance to accurately road test our OT situation.
09/28/2018 - 12:14pm Lots of hidden yardage in…

Lots of hidden yardage in the punt game.  However, IIRC, I read somewhere that Northwestern is one of the least penalized teams in all of NCAA, where as Michigan is well above average.

So as far as hidden yardage goes, it's possible the advantage that Michigan has in the punt game will be canceled out by Michigan getting more flags.

 

 

09/27/2018 - 3:58pm I agree, and I wouldn…

I agree, and I wouldn hesitate to even put the OL caveat there.

 

At least in the OL situation there are at minimum 2 slots (if a guy is an OT only) and even up to 5 slots if they are a versatile tweener type available to them each season. Not to mention a higher chance of one of the starters getting injured. 

So unless a guy is:

 

1. The definite 6th or 7th OL; AND

 

2. At a program that is known for producing a top rated OL (Wisconsin, Alabama) such that it’s plausible that the #6 or #7 OL is still NFL caliber; AND

 

3.  It’s  late in his career; AND/OR

 

4. His team’s OL is incredibly robust health wise (although who can predict the future)....

 

You’d think an OL who is in the top 6-8 would stick around and hope injury or graduation opens up a slot for him rather than transfer merely for playing time. 

 

Maybe he grad transfers to get playing time at a lesser school just for fun or to get a free gear of graduate coursework.

But if the guy knows deep down he isn’t NFL material, I don’t see how most OL players would be willing to uproot his life (friends, girlfriend, etc) to do a regular transfer just for playing time at a (likely lesser) football program. 

To put a finer point on it: it’s why we see viable QBs on the grad transfer market (Rudock) frequently, but almost never see grad transfer OLs that would ever transfer into a major program like Michigan. 

09/23/2018 - 10:06am Agree. 

Combination of our…

Agree. 

Combination of our team gelling a bit, and some of the other teams on our schedule looking a bit less daunting. 

Definitely thinking a 9-3 or 10-2 type season is more likely than a 7-5 or 8-4. 

09/23/2018 - 10:03am RA-shan Gary

 

 

And don’t forget RA-shan Gary

 

 

09/22/2018 - 8:31pm Yup.  You've gotta think we…

Yup.  You've gotta think we go up at least 2 if not 3-4 spots.  Not that it matters, but it's nice to see us climbing after getting absolutely hammered disproportionately after the ND loss.

09/22/2018 - 11:00am Columbus also doesn't have…

Columbus also doesn't have an NFL squad & the state of Ohio doesn't have another high end football team. 

If you totally removed the Lions as a football option & made Michigan State more like a Conference USA or good MAC program, my bet is it'd boost Michigan's attendance numbers and/or ticket prices by a good amount.

09/22/2018 - 9:07am True. 

 

Another way to…

True. 

 

Another way to look at it though is that we have the same amount of “luck” overall. We just end up having to use it for less impressive wins to win games we SHOULD win anyway in football, or alternatively, we get some luck in other sports (Poole Party) and this it's spread out more. 

09/17/2018 - 5:18pm That’s probably a defensive…

That’s probably a defensive scouting capacity issue. 

If the offense is otherwise easy to prepare for, then showing extra plays or wrinkles is dumb because they’ll just prep for that too. 

If the offense is already complex & stretching the capacity of the defensive scouting already, then overloading them could make sense. 

 

In the first instance holding back plays is an ambush. In the second, it’s intimidating them because they KNOW they’re going in ill prepared and spread way too thin. 

09/17/2018 - 5:09pm Secret plays may not have…

Secret plays may not have been ready 2-3 weeks ago. 

09/17/2018 - 2:36pm Somewhere yesterday on the…

Somewhere yesterday on the Internet I saw that at least one of the refs was one of the infamously biased OSU homers that officiated the 2016 Michigan-OSU game.

 

Forgot his name, but he was the one from Athens Ohio & was on record saying he was an OSU fan & that in years prior to 2016 was prohibited from officiating The Game since he was from Ohio (which apparently no longer mattered as of 2016??)

09/16/2018 - 5:37pm Absolutely.

I know it was a…

Absolutely.

I know it was a blown coverage, but that TD to DPJ at 1:25 in the 3rd quarter was a thing of beauty.  It was thrown from about the 50 yard line, but if we were on our own 10 or 20 yard line, it still would have been a TD.  Just placed perfectly to hit DPJ in stride so he could break away and pick up massive YACs had he not actually been in the end zone.

A healthy Speight likely makes that throw, but we haven't seen that kind of QB play since early-mid 2016.

09/16/2018 - 3:27pm But the other teams ahead of…

But the other teams ahead of them could lose & they rise by default. 

Happens all the time. 

09/15/2018 - 10:48pm That’s the frustrating thing…

That’s the frustrating thing about some of these early Harbaugh teams. 

They really are very solid to excellent across the board but for one or two key positions. But then as soon as one is shored up, another becomes a problem spot. 

Gotta think they’ll be able to put it all together in the same season one of these years. 

09/14/2018 - 4:17pm Remember that stars and cyan…

Remember that stars and cyan circles are relative within the team. 

Don’t want to put words in Seth’s mouth, but seems that our lack of offensive stars & the threshold of Shea needing to be in contention for all conference honors is BECAUSE our squad is full of top 250 recruits. 

Basically all graded on a curve. 

09/14/2018 - 4:17pm Remember that stars and cyan…

Remember that stars and cyan circles are relative within the team. 

Don’t want to put words in Seth’s mouth, but seems that our lack of offensive stars & the threshold of Shea needing to be in contention for all conference honors is BECAUSE our squad is full of top 250 recruits. 

Basically all graded on a curve. 

09/14/2018 - 2:04pm So on a scale of 1-10, with…

So on a scale of 1-10, with a 1 being:

 

”Western Redux, keep it on the ground to prevent Shea/WR injury & keep playbook under wraps from future teams”, 

 

and a 10 being,

 

“our OL pass pro is a mess, we need to work in the young guys & get lots of in-game reps in the safest environment possible so let’s air it out even though it’ll put more of our stuff (good and bad) on film for opponents and marginally increase risk of injury to Shea”

 

Where do we all predict our offense will go with for this game?

 

 

09/14/2018 - 1:25pm That ain’t the half of it. 

That ain’t the half of it. 

 

I forgot what team it was, but last week I discovered that one has a Turnover Pimp Robe. 

09/12/2018 - 11:53pm Tyler Friday respectfully…

Tyler Friday respectfully disagrees. 

09/09/2018 - 4:59pm Agreed, but I also like the…

Agreed, but I also like the concept in abstract. What I’d prefer is for the stickers to be about 30% smaller and another 30-40% harder to get. 

That way, even at the end of the year it’s just around the base of the helmet & isn’t in danger of obstructing the winged helmet part. 

09/09/2018 - 4:54pm That’s the crappy thing…

That’s the crappy thing about this schedule imbalance. We could have a markedly better team this year, but due to the schedule only improve by a game or so & go 9-4 or so by the time bowl season is over.  Meanwhile, had we fielded this years team against last year’s schedule, we could easily have had a 10 win season. 

 

I guess only time will tell.

09/07/2018 - 4:57pm (No subject)

nvrmnd.gif

09/07/2018 - 4:31pm  

You are 100% right in…

 

You are 100% right in that they totally re-load & it took years to accomplish that status.

 

I'm going to cut & paste a post I had over on Rivals, b/c the thread from yesterday over there is directly on point.   Here's my post from Rivals yesterday:

******

******

Wisconsin can reload because now they have the pipeline, all they have to do is “hit” on 1-2 OL per class (recruiting 3-5 to get those hits).

But if a team isn’t there yet, in order to get to that Wisconsin type of line FROM SCRATCH, one of two things has to happen:



Scenario 1: Ideal but almost impossible.

You get a single unbelievable OL recruiting class of 5-6 guys where 2-3 are good enough as true freshmen to start, AND the other 2-3 all are good and eventually ARE quality players with redshirts intact. If you do this then maybe you don’t suffer 2-3 years of terrible OL since the D1 ready freshman plug the immediate wholes BUT you don’t suffer the “early” departures because the other 2-3 guys in the class ALL hit and kept their RS.

Basically the lucky horseshoe opposite of our 2012 and 2013 OL recruiting classes.

But this so rare. Even if you got 2 turn key OL freshmen that can plug in, most OL recruits are hard to project. They wash out, get injured, etc.


Scenario 2: short term pain & long term gain.

Step 1: Hire an excellent and proven OL coach and give him a long term contract.

Step 2: Pick a blocking philosophy & don’t change it. So even if the OL coach departs, the philosophy/technique remains constant. Try to hire the OL coach’s protege or promote from within to maintain terminology & philosophy.

Step 3: Make OL one of the top 1-2 priorities for a few cycles in a row. OVER recruit (or at least for God's sake don’t UNDER recruit) the numbers & make sure it’s a good blend of OT and interior guys. Do this for an uninterrupted 3 years even if you are insanely successful the first two years. Basically do what you think is necessary, then do another 30% more on top of that.

Step 4: Red shirt the hell out of them, even if it means sacrificing some OL production for a year or two, even if your current OL is shitty. Your fan base, boosters, QBs, media, the Offensive Coordinator, RBs, WRs, and the young OL players themselves (and their parents) will be SCREAMING at the HC and OL coach do otherwise. Those folks are all very focused on the short term modest gain you MIGHT get from ripping off a redshirt of a young & talented guy.  The problem is, if that guy was going to develop into a great 5th year OL, you're basically sacrificing a HUGE upside 5th year in exchange for a very modest up side immediately (i.e., mortgaging the future OL to get a modest bump immediately). 

The HC and OL coach need to ignore these people if they have interest in building the OL long term.  Other than hot-seat desperation (basically a selfish move to save their own job), the only reason a head coach should even consider ripping off a redshirt IMO is if they are in a "peak" year roster/schedule-wise, and that modest bump could plausibly mean the difference in winning the conference championship or getting into the CFP.  But doing it just to win 9 games instead of 8, or doing it just to beat a rival in an otherwise mediocre year doesn't seem worth it to me IMO.

Step 5: Profit.

Step 6: When it is 100% clear you have a base layer of very solid Wisconsin OL type talent in the 2 deep (with 1st string appropriately 1-2 years older than 2nd string for succession planning), AND when you know that you still have quality OL pipelines coming in the door in the next wave of recruits, THEN you can process out the OL guys you over-recruited in the initial 2-3 year surge. At that point, recruiting OL each year can return to normal numbers of 3-4 per year like Wisconsin does versus 5-7 like you were doing during the surge.


Scenario #2 is far more reliable in creating a sustainable OL long term. But, also it costs a lot of time, “political capital”, wins in the short term, and extra scholarship #s (which means your talent suffers elsewhere OR you get insanely lucky/efficient with ID'ing talent elsewhere on the roster) until you finally stabilize it at the higher plateau 3-5 years later.

As a result of all of this, unless a coach already has that great OL & only has to sustain it, most coaches, fan bases, boosters, etc don’t have the patience and willingness to TRULY invest the time & resources required to build a great OL.

09/03/2018 - 4:12pm This is exactly it. The…

This is exactly it. The question asked specifically about personnel & JH broadened out his answer and said “we’ll play the same WAY.”

 

Bottom line is he didn’t directly answer the personnel question at all. It was a totally understandable coach speak press conference answer. 

09/02/2018 - 7:46pm I did. First year starters…

I did. First year starters against Notre Dame’s NFL caliber OC and LG. Strongest part of their line versus our weakest. 

09/02/2018 - 12:51pm And OL is notoriously slow…

And OL is notoriously slow to develop as well. The seeds of our dysfunction there were planted YEARS ago. It will take years to repair. 

Anybody thinking Warriner could fix this in his first 8 months is on drugs. 

The one thing that was fixable quickly on the OL that I did see improvement on:  zero penalties on offense. Two new QBs, a true sophomore center in his first start, hostile night game season opener & zero false starts, zero botched snaps. To me that speaks to good early indicators of good OL coaching. 

The recruiting & development of our young  OTs already on campus will take another 1-2 years. 

09/02/2018 - 9:55am Part of the reason was NDs…

Part of the reason was NDs LBs were all small fast slasher types. 

I think the theory was that if Higdon could get to the 2nd level, he could reliably take a hit and take one of those guys for a ride for an extra 3-4 yards. He did that in a few occasions, but we just weren’t reliably running between the tackles that much. 

So I suppose once we were going to edge plays, it really should have been Evans or DPJ getting the carries more. 

08/31/2018 - 10:50pm Agreed, but if MSU blows out…

Agreed, but if MSU blows out ASU next week, it’s just as likely that Herman Edwards being a totally out of touch coach has more to do with it than anything relating directly to MSU. 

08/31/2018 - 7:53pm I’ll be there. My MGoWife…

I’ll be there. My MGoWife got us tickets for my birthday. 

Likely tailgating with our good friends who are ND season ticket holders. Near medical school I guess?

 

Our second time to an away game at South Bend. Last time was 2012 when we had the terrible game with something like 5-6 turnovers. 

 

Hopefully much better result this time!

08/31/2018 - 4:04pm 1)  This content has been…

1)  This content has been consistently excellent for a period of years.

2)  My discretionary spending budget is more flush than usual right now.

3)  This content & the amount of time I spend on this site is certainly worth $1 per day to me.

4)  Ergo, $365 to Beveled Guilt today.

 

THANK YOU BRIAN, ACE & SETH!!!

 

Now let's BEAT NOTRE DAME!!!

08/31/2018 - 3:03pm Yup.  Freak plays & Shea…

Yup.  Freak plays & Shea inappropriately trying to play Hero Ball are the two things that I'm most concerned about.  If we are behind & he needs to do it, then obviously I'm all for it. 

So what I hope is that this "gunslinger" & bad INT to TD ratio from last year is more of an indication of CALCULATED risks Shea was taking at Old Miss out of necessity, as opposed it to being baked into his football DNA that Harbuagh & Pep need to try to coach out of him over time.

08/31/2018 - 3:00pm I mean hell, even setting…

I mean hell, even setting aside actual COMPLETIONS on broken plays....

Even if Shea has the pocket-awareness to not eat sacks & throw the ball away when there's an oncoming rush and also not flush out of an otherwise OK pocket too early, it will be a BIG upgrade.

That's the thing I need to keep reminding myself.  Shea doesn't have to be "lights out".  He just needs to:

1)  Be a credible threat to complete a few passes to prevent the D from stacking the box; and 

2)  Avoid throwing INTs & eating big sacks.

I'm confident he can do #1 pretty much right away.  What I'm nervous about is #2 in the home opener at night vs. Notre Dame in a new system.

08/31/2018 - 2:48pm Although you guys do make a…

Although you guys do make a good point. 

My initial freak-out over how many "Dangerman" designations ND had was immediately tempered by my realization that Seth didn't include a chart for OUR guys as well.  We've got at least 2-3 AA shields on defense, and a crap-ton of "Dangerman" designations ourselves.

Plus, the ND "Dangerman" match-ups aren't nearly as bad as they could be.   Namely:

  • They have an interior DL Dangerman (Tillery), but he won't likely be one-on-one with our OTs, but rather up against our interior.  

 

  • Their "Dangerman" WRs are likely matched up w/ our own CB "Dangerman"/AAs.  Plus inaccurate Wimbush & the ND QB has to have TIME to get the ball to those guys, and our pass rush may not allow that to happen.

 

  • Their "Dangerman" punter could be counteracted by DPJ assuming he has a good night & doesn't get injured.

 

  • Their "Dangerman" OC and LG could be countered by our "Dangerman"/AA Gary/Winovich/Bush, plus their bad RB situation assuming Williams doesn't play.

 

So looking at it optimistically, the only truly bad ND "Dangerman" match-ups that we can't easily counter will be their FG kicker, and possibly the OC/LG if Solomon & Dwumfor have a bad night.

08/31/2018 - 2:38pm I think we are still stuck w…

I think we are still stuck w/ the all whites for road uniforms again.  I think it's largely driven by Harbaugh nostalgia, as apparently those were what we wore back in the 70's when he started watching us as a kid.

Personally, I prefer the maize pants for the road uniforms.  That & wishing the helmet stickers were 30% smaller and 40% tougher to obtain (so as not to obscure our beautiful helmet designs late season), are my two aesthetic bugaboos.

But at least they finally got the shades of maize & blue correct.  Plus I like how slick the modern helmets look w/ the winged helmet.