split zone

Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending and a Seth at exhaustion level 2 discuss that 3rd and 5 where it looked like Michigan just ran into a stacked box. Actually it was almost a big payoff of a play they had set up. If you're looking to buy or refi, Matt's the guy.

There is nothing after the jump because it's video content.

Schedule note: Sorry this is getting up late. It, uh, ran long.

Well, Brian went and Joel Klatt'ed* me again. I was going to use this space this week to talk about how the threat of a McCarthy keep opened up the two big runs for Corum and Edwards, and then Brian went ahead and Neck Sharpied in his game column. That piece (with his embed replaced with a more permanent clip):

It changes things. I mentioned that JJ McCarthy's legs were an important factor in Michigan's ground game in the Indiana UFR, even and maybe even especially when he didn't have the ball. That's going to come up again in this week's edition because hoo boy the threat of McCarthy keeping the ball was a major factor on both of Michigan's long touchdown runs. The Corum one is obvious; just watch the cornerback to the bottom of the screen:

 

Brian then asserted the threat of McCarthy keeping created the block that sprung Edwards the drive prior. Since it's bound to come up a lot more, and has been a hammer point of ours for years, I figured I might as well dig all the way in. And by all the way in I mean ALL the way in. This isn't going to just discuss a concept or two. We're going to put a lot of pieces together that make up the Michigan QB threat run game, because it was all relevant, and all worked in concert to create a 400+ yard running day against what, in the not too distant past, was considered one of college football's better run defenses.

* [Fox analyst Joel Klatt frequently breaks down events during broadcasts immediately after they occur, preempting our core content that does the same several days later.]

[After THE JUMP: First they crashed, then they burned.]

10/25/2021 – Michigan 33, Northwestern 7 – 7-0, 4-0 Big Ten

Michigan is 7-0 and has just dispatched an inferior opponent in almost exactly the manner expected to pregame. The Vegas spread was 23.5. The actual spread was 26. Michigan outgained Northwestern two-to-one even if they gave up a 75-yard touchdown. So naturally the Michigan internet is on fire in more or less the same way they would be if the team was hewing close to preseason expectations. (IE: they were butt.)

This is because of a quarterback controversy that currently exists only in the minds of fans. I could explain it but we're Michigan people so someone's already made graphs.

Cade McNamara is the game manager with limited upside and limited downside who will not lose a game to Northwestern or defanged Penn State or Indiana; JJ McCarthy could be anything and therefore gives you a better shot of cashing this season in at the end of it. The diagram further asserts that McNamara's overall level of play is a titch better than McCarthy's but that doesn't matter for the relevant question.

Because we are Michigan fans the diagrams top out at a 10% chance of beating OSU, and therein lies the mania. For most other programs, this level of performance would be cause for celebration. The quarterback hiccups would be small blemishes on an otherwise impeccable resume, because the last game of the season would not be a gallows. (Or, in Auburn's case, the last game of the season is a gallows that they will escape due to a brief, inexplicable failure of quantum mechanics.)

For Michigan in this moment, every missed deep shot immediately induces not only frustration in the immediate circumstance but reinforces the dread certainty that this guy ain't beating OSU. This would matter less if the team was butt and nobody was beating OSU—although in that circumstance they'd still be calling for the five-star freshman since nobody is beating OSU. You can't win when you're in front of the guy with the woo woo on his 24/7 profile.

----------------------

this is Cornelius Johnson, not RJ Moten [Bryan Fuller]

I can see both sides of the QB debate. On the one hand I'm pretty negative about McNamara's performances to date, though not as negative as PFF:

McNamara earned a 57.8 passing grade and led the Wolverines to negative expected points added (EPA) per pass play. The Wolverines signal-caller earned a 37.9 passing grade on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, as he completed just 1-of-6 pass attempts for 12 yards. At this point, it is painfully obvious that McNamara will not be able to carry Michigan to victory when they need to win through the air. …

McCarthy did miss a couple of throws, but he has already shown his upside in the vertical passing game — he has thrown fewer than 25 passes this year but already has multiple big-time throws. Overall, McCarthy has earned a 90.5 PFF grade in his limited snaps this season.

On the other, "did miss a couple of throws" seems to undersell McCarthy's wobbliness so far. He hasn't felt more accurate overall than McNamara; he just uncorks an eyepopping throw here and there that obscures the other stuff. Also this felt like a reason he's on the bench:

pic.twitter.com/K5uK4q1rx8

— Due# (@JDue51) October 24, 2021

While cool in the moment—before it got called back for a blindside block—that is bonafide High School Crappe that will get you wrecked if you do it too much. There were a couple games early in the Devin Gardner era with similar escapes, and we were very hyped about them. Then Gardner turned in one of the worst plays in Michigan history* against Notre Dame. That's not going to fly. In a telling post-game moment, McNamara was asked about the above "wow" play and flatly said it was dangerous. This is accurate and not fun at all.

Back to the first hand: the picture that above was McNamara throwing an open post way long when his receiver had inside position and the safety had sucked up on a dig. McNamara threw into double coverage to Sainristil when his other option on a two-man-route was open. He put a throw to an open Schoonmaker down the slot in the wrong spot, etc. Thus the PFF grade. Meanwhile McCarthy appears to bring better-than-functional ability as a runner. The thought of combining the extant ground game with a mobile quarterback is really appealing.

I understand that this switch isn't happening until circumstances are dire, and that there are likely good reasons that it hasn't happened already. I also understand people who want to damn the torpedoes and see what Michigan's got. Likely this is moot. All of this is entering Approaching The Lucy Football territory, which is inadvisable since OSU has the top offense in the country by 4.5 points per game according to SP+.

It's possible that "could beat Ohio State" isn't actually the best metric to go on since approximately zero plus 50 percent is still approximately zero. People have differing risk tolerances. Football coaches do not, and that's another way things are moot. It'll be McNamara until it can't be McNamara anymore.

*[Standalone category. IE: how bad was this play in a vacuum, without game context.]

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1(t) Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. This was not planned but seven games into the season these guys are tied in the points standings here. Each turned in spectacular plays in their milieu: Haskins stayed upright in a rugby scrum that turned a four yard run into a 19 yard one while Corum repeatedly WOOPed guys in the hole and then WOOPed the safety coming down trying to put the fire out. Five points each, they're made up and don't matter.

#2 Aidan Hutchinson. This section threatens to become fairly boring. It's going to be one or two running backs and Hutchinson in some order, with game heroes sprinkled in. But, I mean… what can you do? Hutchinson sent the right tackle out of the game with a broken soul. He also got half a sack, further proving that numbers cannot encompass his play.

#3 DJ Turner. Hey, here's someone new. Turner got a thumping TFL early, made a spectacular interception late, and in-between was the target of the worst penalty call in a Michigan-Northwestern game since Karan Higdon got called for holding.

Honorable mention: Erick All was a reliable underneath option and erased some dudes on the edge. The OL kept the QBs clean with one notable exception and consistently delivered guys downfield, except when NW overplayed and it still didn't matter. Josh Ross delivered a number of sticks to NW RBs, nearly had an INT, and could have had a sack but for some holding.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

28: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc, HM Neb, #2 NW)
18: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU, HM Neb, HM NW)
17: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, #2 Neb, T1 NW), Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, HM Neb, T1 NW)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), Brad Hawkins (#1 Neb)
7: Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM Neb)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc, #3 Neb), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM NW)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc), DJ Turner (#3 NW)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc),
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU),  Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers), Erick All (HM NW)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Difficult selection since Michigan didn't have a scrimmage play longer than 24 yards, but for my money it's the Corum third down run right before Michigan broke up M00N 2, because just look at this:

Blake Corum jukin fools.

My goodness. pic.twitter.com/EUoo12OhJR

— Due# (@JDue51) October 24, 2021

That turned a dicey redzone proposition into a touchdown, as Michigan just went hurry-up and dove in with Corum right after the above.

Honorable mention: Rugby scrum run, Hutchinson dump truck sack, the other Corum run where he WOOPed two guys, James Ross breaking up a third consecutive third down screen.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Northwestern gets a 75-yard touchdown that sets Twitter on fire for halftime.

Honorable mention: Michigan's drive after the 75-yard TD ends in a fumble on some cute perimeter stuff. McNamara misses various deep shots. Egregious PI call on Turner is egregious.

[After THE JUMP: 1 and 3]