SPONSOR NOTE: Upon Further Review is sponsored by HomeSure Lending and Matt Demorest. Rates are the lowest they've been in three years so it can't hurt to check whether you can save money on a refinance. Or you could buy a house in Ann Arbor! Good luck with that!

Matt's relocated the bus to Pioneer this year, BTW, and invites everyone to stop by and say hi. There's beer. I mean, obviously. Matt. Matt and beer: a good pairing.

FORMATION NOTES: All gun except for a couple goal-line snaps; all 1 RB 1 TE or 1 RB 2 TE. The only slightly weird thing was a trips formation where Michigan put Eubanks well off the LOS, which worked once on a screen and then Wisconsin figured it out. The Badgers alternated between their 3-4 and a 2-4-5 that we discussed last week; most of it was the 2-4-5.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Michigan yanked Patterson just before half and seemed set to give McCaffrey the rest of the game but then he got concussed after the second targeting call he suffered. Milton got the last drive.

RB was weird: Charbonnet got the first snap, Turner got the most snaps, and Mason had exactly two before he fumbled. Hassan Haskins got in late.

OL was the expected starting rotation with Runyan at LT; Hayes got a drive or two late at RT. TE was the usual; Schoonmaker got in late. WR was the usual with the addition of some DPJ snaps. Sainristil got in right at the end.

[After THE JUMP: catharsis!]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Improv	Bell	68
Patterson looks at double outs to the boundary and then aborts as UW drops a standup DE into them. He might have Black but can’t really complain. Can complain that he doesn’t flip to read the other side of the field, where Collins and Charbonnet are both very open. Patterson scrambles out of the pocket, finding Bell on a slant he turned into a Y cross; Bell outruns a tackle and turns in a big play. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O7	1	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Pass	Slant	Collins	Inc
Trying to get a 2TE set with Mason on the field, TO. UW plays soft on the edge, slant is good option. Collins gets inside and then the DB grabs him around the waist, which prevents him from jumping and the ball goes over his head. This ball is fine as long as the referees (-2) call a blatant PI. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O7	2	G	Pistol 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Inside zone	Mason	3
No read at all, great demo of why reads are important. M blocks IZ, leaves an end unblocked. They do a good job blasting guys downfield but zero threat of a keeper allows the end to clean up. Mayfield(+1) and McKeon(+1) turn in one end with McKeon extending to a LB block. Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+1) put the NT four yards downfield. Mason(-3) does have to cut back to the DE and gets three yards but takes back to back shots to the ball within about a half second and puts it on the ground. He’s gripping this thing with both hands, I don’t think this is a positional issue, I think it’s just stupid fluck. RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-7, 7 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	5.5	Pass	Hitch	Black	5
Quick pitch and catch with a vertical route from McKeon impeding a LB a hair; Black(-1) has six yards on the catch and will easily have three more in YAC if he just goes right upfield. Instead he tries to dodge the LB and ends up losing a yard. Guh. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M25	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Post	Bell	Inc
The diving catch that’s overturned. Since everyone including Pereria said it was a catch Bell gets credit. This is a dart but it requires this attempt at a dive and makes this a circus catch. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
M25	3	5	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	TE out	McKeon	Inc
Patterson again gets caught looking at the boundary when dual outs get met with a standup DE dropping into coverage. Patterson has neither WR to the boundary, but never bothers to check the field. There he can try to find Collins on an in where he’s got good body position. Instead a throw into double coverage. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 3 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6.5	Run	RPO Pin and pull	Turner	1
Great contrast between the DL spots M is in that make the Wisconsin pulls very effective and… this. UW has the DT pinched tight. M pulls C and LG, which means the nose tackle gets to shoot inside of Onwenu and Onwenu has zero chance. Other NT is outside of Bredeson; Runyan(-1) does not seal him inside; he rips outside. On these I assume pin and pull rules and not straight up “if the opponent has a 1 tech we’re boned” so Ruiz -2 for getting the line call wrong and pulling when Onwenu should. LBs staying back a bit so give likely correct. UW really sitting on these RPO slants with little else on their mind.
M26	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	2-4-5	6.5	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	4
Patterson has forever. Can’t find anyone; all routes are on the screen so yeah, no one open. Hitches to boundary, nope, TE flat, nope, Bell on an in maybe but there’s a LB sitting five yards deep who’s going to make that difficult. Patterson scrambles for more than any throws are going to get. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2, RPS -1)
M30	3	5	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	1	3	2-4-5	7	Pass	Improv	DPJ	Inc (Pen)
Mesh. It does pop Collins open as the ump is used productively, but Patterson doesn’t have the patience. It looks for a second like UW is going to get through with a four man rush that fires a MLB as #4 but Onwenu(gold star!) comes off the NT, literally knocks the MLB over, and Patterson could find Collins if he just slides over a bit and remains calm. Not happening. He breaks the pocket and does find DPJ(-2), who gets blown up before the catch for a PI and then TAUNTS SOMEONE ON A DEFENSE THAT HAS NOT YET GIVEN UP A FIRST DOWN for a PF. (CA, 0, protection 2/2)
M21	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	6.5	Pass	Flare screen	Eubanks	11
Not quite a bubble since Eubanks comes from weirdly deep and is also the #3 WR; bubbles hit quicker. But Wisconsin isn’t far off so yea fine. Wisconsin nickel messes up and goes inside of Black(+1), who makes the block, first down. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
M32	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	PA TE out	Eubanks	Inc
Mesh fake, Patterson pulls. Eubanks blocks for a second and then chucks the OLB past him, releasing. Patterson fakes running for a second and then pulls up to throw. He’s got the OLB in his face, tough situation. S is moving out on Eubanks; Patterson throws, it’s behind Eubanks and he can’t bring in the one handed stab. This will work better later with McCaffrey. (IN, 1, protection N/A)
M32	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6	Pass	PA dumpoff	Turner	4
PA, deep drop, trying to hit something big. Three guys go vertical, two deep S. A third corner goes deep with Collins. The other eight guys come up on the playfake. You know me; take the shot. Instead a checkdown. No downfield takes but you’ve got zero pressure and one on one coverage. Meh. (MA, 3, protection 3/3)
M36	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Slant?	Johnson	Inc
Bad from Ruiz(-1) and Bredeson(-1), who get driven back into Patterson by one guy. OLB is looping around the one guy and is in clean, Patterson has to throw. He gets hit on the throw and it sails, but he appears to be throwing at a very covered Johnson(route -), who lost off the LOS badly. Nobody else seems open either. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-14, EO1Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	RPO slant	Bell	Inc
Pull here maybe a little dubious since there’s a safety sitting in the slant area. That guy does M a favor by vacating for no apparent reason. Ball is way behind Bell and PBUd. (IN, 0, RPO, RPS -1).
M25	2	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	Waggle deep out	Bell	Inc
Stretch to boundary fake does pull the front away; Patterson has plenty of time to find Bell, who’s open as the CB to the field sucks up on Collins. 20 yards go out the window as Patterson misses and Bell can’t make another diving catch. (IN, 1, protection N/A, RPS +1)
M25	3	10	Shotgun empty quads	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Fly	Collins	Inc (Pen +15)
Line sets wrong as UW sends both LBs and backs an OLB out. Bredeson has to let a guy go and does. Runyan(-1) beat around the corner at 9 yards; Patterson could step up except for the blitz issue. He’s gonna get hammered so he punts it up to Collins, who gets run over for a flag. I do wonder about not seeing McKeon right in the middle of the field. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, TEAM -1)
M40	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	2–4-5	7	Run	Belly	Charbonnet	3
Jet fake. This appears to be an auto check from UW that converts the CB into a blitzer. With an overhang LB for the jet and a shuffle end for the QB it’s a give and the shuffle end is already moving to Charbonnet on the mesh. Charbonnet decides to go front side despite this looking like RR’s old belly play where Mayfield and McKeon are hammering at the NT and trying to clear a path away from the end. Ruiz(-1) loses the other end; Charbonnet cuts to the CB blitz and gets tackled by it. RPS –1.
M43	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	5.5	Pass	RPO slant	McKeon	Inc
You know it’s bad when you’re running a supposed RPO and DL are getting their hands up to bat passes. This one may have had a chance; instead it is intercepted. (BA, 0, RPO,  RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-21, 5 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M15	1	10	Pistol twin TE	1	2	2	2-4-5	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Turner	-3
Arc action with McKeon as the arc guy after lining up playside, no pull. OLB tears for the mesh point; Patterson(-2) gives it to a doomed Turner. Patterson may or may not have an opportunity on the outside depending on what McKeon does on his block but this is always a TFL on a give. RPS -2.
M12	2	13	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Okie one	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-8
Bredeson(-2) airballs on a blitzer. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M4	3	21	Shtogun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel under	6	Pass	Screen	Charbonnet	-1
UW lucky here as their NT falls down and is able to get back up just when Charbonnet catches the ball. This wasn’t getting the first down but could have been useful field position. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-21, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6.5	Pass	Fly	Bell	Inc
Mayfield(-2) spun through so Patterson gets lit up on a throw nowhere near anyone. Punting it up to Bell in bracket coverage so I’m not optimistic. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M25	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	In	DPJ	Inc
McCaffrey. Good protection this time but McCaffrey hitches up twice and gets hit just after his throw. McCaffrey stares down DPJ the whole time and nearly throws a pick as four guys converge on one spot, woof. Collins open. (BRX, 0, protection 2/2)
M25	3	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Run	QB lead off tackle	McCaffrey	9
This is a new play and a clever one with a mesh point that immediately leads into McCaffrey running off tackle with Haskins as his lead blocker. I’m not grading this since this is mutually agreed on halftime.
Drive Notes: EOH, 0-28.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Run	Split zone	Turner	6
I mean this should have been the first play of the game. Mesh point, Eubanks pulls across and barely needs a block since the end is looking for arc. Onwenu(+0.5) and Mayfield(+0.5) shoot a DT down the line; McKeon(-1) contacts an ILB and has him inside for a second and then gets shed; with Bell(-1) ineffectually cracking down on a DB Turner’s big gap gets closed down quick. Turner(+1) is able to spin through the DB tackle but immediately gets hit by McKeon’s guy.
M31	2	4	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Pass	PA TE short fade	Eubanks	9
Eubanks pulls for arc stuff again and then releases downfield. OLB goes with him instead of attacking the QB, which is a bit of a surprise. McCaffrey has to lay in a nice touch pass off his back foot as he’s getting pressure, and does. (DO, 3, protection N/A)
M40	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Turner	6
This goes right up the gut as Ruiz(+2) obliterates the NT with a little help from Onwenu(+0.5). Mayfield(-0.5) couldn’t really do anything with the other DE and he slides down to tackle.
M46	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	TE deep cross	McKeon	Inc
McCaffrey stands in a pretty decent pocket until McKeon clears the second level; he actually throws this anticipating that McKeon will break past the guys in zone. This is as hair wide but really should be caught. (CA, 2, protection ½, Ruiz -1). Ruiz got spun through late.
M46	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Hitch	Black	Inc
This is way wide of Black but it might be because Black screwed up? He runs straight downfield and stops and is basically on the numbers. This is a zone and if McCaffrey throws this at Black it’s a PBU or INT. If Black runs an out this is on him. Meanwhile, Collins crushes a jam at the bottom of the screen and is open. (MA, 0, protection 1/1, Black route -)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-28, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Cross	Bell	Inc
Protection good; McCaffrey doesn’t have to move but his timer goes off and he slides in a gap in the line. He keeps his eyes downfield and fires a dart to Bell. I cannot tell if this is behind Bell or not given the tape quality but I think this is pretty catchable ball? Maybe a little behind Bell but catchable. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M25	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Run	Inside zone	Turner	2
This would be a missed read if it was a read, which it is not. Mayfield(-2) expects the DE to be force and flares out. DE jumps inside him. Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+1) clobber the NT, with Onwenu getting to the second level. Bredeson(+0.5) also gets a second level block. Turner gets whacked by Mayfield’s DE.
M27	3	8	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	Scramble	McCaffrey	7 +15 pen
Good protection; McCaffrey slides away from everyone and is completely out of the pocket. He takes off. In today’s edition of STOP SLIDING McCaffrey gives himself up before the sticks and gets clocked in the head for his troubles. Just dive forward like a human, this happens more often when you do something dumb like slide. I feel a bit for the UW safety but he lowers his helmet and strikes McCaffrey with the crown, no ambiguity here. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Run	Belly	Charbonnet	3
Shuffle end shuffling inside, should be a keep, give, Charbonnet gets eaten up by end. McCaffrey -1, Mayfield(+0.5), McKeon(+0.5).
O48	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Drag	Bell	13
Three man rush beat up. This is a bit of a dubious throw as OLB has dropped into a short zone and this could be an immediate tackle for four yards; Bell(+1) dodges it and creates a first down. Charbonnet wide open to other side of the field but I guess this is open enough. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O35	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	PA Post?	Bell	Inc
Two hitches on the outside and then Bell running some weird route that looks like a slant when it leaves the screen and turns into some deep route. McCaffrey throws this nowhere near Bell, and he did have a lot of space to throw him open in. No replay, unfortunately. Not a huge fan of a PA on which there’s one deep option and zilch else. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O35	2	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	PA TE short fade	McKeon	18
Very similar to previous Eubanks hit on previous drive. McKeon blocks for a second and then releases, beating a LB and S down the field. McCaffrey again throws a nice touch pass to convert. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +1)
O17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Run	Zone read keeper	McCaffrey	5 + 6 pen
Gotta be a UW bust as the OLB fires way way inside of McKeon and the LBs go the same way. Pull read is obvious; UW has overplayed this so much that a give to Turner that breaks back behind McKeon also works. McCaffrey beats the LB who false stepped to the corner and turns it up; he leaps a S DPJ(-1) got a little of but not much, and then the LB grabs him; S hammers him in the head for a second targeting call, and that’s all for McCaffrey. This is some asshole headhunting by this guy and should have drawn a longer suspension.
O6	1	G	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	3-4 under	7.5	Pass	Improv	McKeon	6
PA complete with a guard pull and max pro with three guys in the route. None of them are over the middle? On first and goal PA? I don’t get it. Patterson has eons of time and eventually rolls out of the pocket to find McKeon on the sideline. (CA+, 2, protection 3/3)
O3	PT	PT	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Cross	Black	3
Patterson appears to look off a S by checking Eubanks and then comes to Black(route+), who beat the CB to the inside and starts running along the back line of the endzone; Patterson fires a dart. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2PT), 8-35, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M27	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6	Pass	Flare screen	Eubanks	0
This is bad matchup for Black(-1), who gets a UW OLB instead of a DB. His block goes badly in part because he looks inside for some reason and loses focus; Eubanks cut immediately on the catch. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)
M27	2	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Fade	DPJ	Inc
Slot fade from DPJ. Protection excellent. Patterson steps up and fires way long and inside. DPJ had a good bit of space to the outside. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M27	3	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Cross	Bell	Inc
This is the play where Collins’s guy falls down and he’s wide open for a TD. Worse is that Patterson has an eon in the pocket. He fires it at a double covered Bell. He also misses McKeon open for a first down. This is unbelievable. (BRX, 0, protection 3/3)
Drive Notes: Punt, 8-35, 12 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M31	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	?	6.5	Run	?	Turner	5
We come to this play late. Runyan is pulling around so this is power of some variety; Onwenu(+1) shoves his guy well downfield and Turner(+1) is able to feint outside, go inside, break an ankle tackle, and drag guys a few yards. Bredeson(-0.5) couldn’t keep his guy locked out; Schoonmaker(-1) let a DE through quickly.
M36	2	5	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	5-1 split	6	Pass	Fade	Collins	38 (Pen -15)
Back shoulder bomb at Collins that he comes down with; he gets an extremely borderline OPI call for trying to fend off the guy’s hand fighting and getting in a bit of a push. Of all the things I’ve seen called OPI this is probably the weakest (refs -3). (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M21	2	20	Shotgun 2-back	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Punt	Black	32
Onwenu(-2) goes and looks for work too early and misses a DT stunt that gets through clean on Patterson. He gets decked as he throws; ball is way short. Black makes it right, ripping the ball away from a DB. (MA, 1, protection 0/2)
O47	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Hitch	Collins	11
Am I mad that UW corners are playing ten yards off because of repeated deep shots and Michigan finally throws a stupid hitch against this in the fourth quarter of game three? MAYBE. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O36	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Fade	Collins	32
Press coverage, Collins gets an okay release a couple of yards inside the sideline, good protection, Patterson hits the back shoulder perfectly and Collins makes it look easy. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
O4	1	G	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	2-4-5	7	Pass	Drag	Eubanks	Inc (Pen +2)
LB hooks Eubanks’s arm the whole way, not a tough call. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O2	1	G	Ace 3TE	1	3	1	Goal line	10	Run	Down G	Haskins	-3
Hayes(-3) blocks down on a DE Onwenu has and allows an OLB to the backfield. He TFLs. This was probably a TD otherwise.
O5	2	G	Shotgun trips TE	1	2	2	3-4 over	9	Pass	Improv	Schoonmaker	Inc
Zero blitz from UW so someone is getting through. Haskins(-1) kind of lets a LB through but gets a shove to allow Patterson to move up; he throws it out of the endzone. Why is he not throwing to Eubanks on that cross? And what is with the non-routes to the top? (TA, 0, protection 1/2)
O5	3	G	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	3-4 under	9	Pass	Improv	Eubanks	Inc
Zero blitz. Patterson gets pressure up the middle as Onwenu(-1) gets pawed through but again he’s trying to block two guys. No real options for Patterson—what are we even trying to accomplish here—and he tries Eubanks on a desperate heave at the sideline. (PR, 0, protection ½)
O5	4	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-4 under	6	Pass	Improv	DPJ	5
Three man rush, all day, Patterson rolls out and points DPJ to a spot and then hits him. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
O3	PT	PT	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	Goal line	10	Pass	Waggle TE out	Eubanks	Inc
Pressure too quick off the corner; Black looks like he’s held on a circle route(refs -1) but probably irrelvant as Patterson just has to heave it. Eubanks almost brings it in. (MA, 1, protection N/A, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2PT failed), 14-35, 4 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M44	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Cross	DPJ	Inc
Bredeson(-2) way overcommits on a guy diving inside of him and gets stunted around like it’s a Drevno line. Patterson gets hit; ball is out but he can’t really step into it and the ball is way overthrown. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
M44	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Cross	Eubanks	Inc
Mayfield(-2) spun through again, quick pressure, Patterson dumps it vaguely at a very covered Eubanks. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M44	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Hitch	Collins	Inc
PBU as the corner plays this really well; hitch at the sticks on third and ten is a pretty easy read to make. One wonders if this is a hair late? Patterson is drifting back in the pocket on a throw on which he probably shouldn’t have to. (MA, 0, protection 1/1)
M44	4	10	Shotgun trips bunch	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Dig	Black	20
Okay time, rhythm throw; Runyan(-1) gets too deep on a stunt and has a hard time picking up the looper. Black gets open on a chunk in route and Patterson puts it on him, (DO, 3, protection ½)
O36	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Hitch	Black	Inc
Wide open ten yard hitch is easier on first down; Patterson wings a duck well wide of Black (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
O36	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Drag	Eubanks	3
Three man rush that gets through as Runyan(-1) and Bredeson(-1) get split by a DE. Patterson gets it out to Eubanks, who gets lit up immediately. Because it’s an eight man coverage. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
O33	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Yakety sax	Runyan(!)	-9
All, all day on a five man rush and Patterson finds nothing, holding the ball forever. As he’s finally getting sacked he chucks a lateral to Runyan, who proceeds to fumble. (TAX, N/A, protection 3/3)
O42	4	16	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Back shoulder fade	Collins	23
When in doubt just punt it up. This is not even a good punt but Collins comes back and makes the catch while being interfered with. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
O19	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Fade	Black	Inc
Just another fade; initially called a TD but called back appropriately. Not appropriately called; obvious holding on the DB. Refs -2. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)
O19	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	2-4-5	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	-8
Runyan(-2) whipped, Patterson strip sacked. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 14-35, 3 min 4th Q. Milton’s drive is just some scrambles and a bad INT.

Wait. I have something for this!

do you now

I do!

… okay

Pretty good, right?

I don't want to live in a world where the most competent Michigan-football-related entity is bolded alter ego.

Hey!

Fine, fine, it doesn't help anyone to set upon each other like rabid ferrets, ripping and tearing at each others' nipples and rending the garments and generally making A Scene. It is what it is. Which is not good. The grisly tale of the tape, excluding the Milton drive:

• four three-and-outs, two first-down-and-outs, one first-down-and-INT.
• a 71 yard drive ending in a fumble from Mason; a 40 yard drive ending in a sack-strip of Patterson.
• two TD drives of 75 and 69 yards

It's probably even worse than that since both of the actually successful drives were after it was 35-0 and also hung by a thread at several points. They relied on downfield punts that, while successful, had an air of fortune to them.

So what's the problem?

Wouldn't that be nice.

uh

I mean, kind of everything is the problem? It would be really nice to have something like the Army game where Hayes was –10 and set to be replaced and you could say something like "this should get better because of X." This was not the case. Patterson was a problem. The OL was a problem. The approach was a problem. The running backs were—well, spectators.

Maybe take one thing at a time?

Fine. Let's start with the whole thing: what was that? Michigan had a total of ten running back carries in a whole football game. Literally at no point were there two consecutive run plays. There was almost literally no QB run game until McCaffrey came in, and even he got just three carries.

The worst part was Michigan backsliding with returning starters in basic situations. The second run of the game came on the third drive; Michigan runs a gap-blocked play with Ruiz pulling when he has a guy shaded just outside of him:

C #51

That is never going to work. Either it's a dumb-ass play call or Ruiz blew a basic pin and pull read. I have to hope it's a junior returning center dorfing it because he's not prepared for Wisconsin's base defense after a bye week. Hooray.

The lack of a run game was utterly baffling, because Wisconsin looked like they'd be vulnerable to a bunch of bashing up the middle and then they were right after halftime. Turner got a couple of six-yard first down runs, the first when split zone—which is again the play the arc read fakes—got Turner a huge hole because Eubanks's kickout block was free:

TE #82 and the guy he's blocking 

The second featured Onwenu and Ruiz putting Wisconsin's freshman nose tackle five yards downfield:

C #51

For a minute it did seem like Michigan could pave a very light or inexperienced Wisconsin front, but the first half runs were, minus the end of half play:

• A no-read inside zone for Ben Mason on second and goal from the seven on which the unblocked end, who was not read, tackled him.
• The (probable) pin and pull referenced above on which Ruiz pulled with a guy shaded just outside of him.
• A belly play that Charbonnet took frontside because the shuffle end was coming after him.
• An arc zone play on which an OLB almost took the handoff and Patterson didn't pull.

That's it. Three guys unblocked by design mucking it up and one basic football thing that didn't get executed. I advocated for a more passing oriented offense over the offseason but I didn't mean Texas Tech. I have no explanation for this. Wisconsin got to sit in their 2-4-5 most of the game and Michigan didn't even try to manball until two successful first down plays down 28-0. This is the monkey's paw version of our spread wishes.

So we're running a zone read offense with functionally no reads?

Pretty much? Michigan has backslid here in an alarming fashion. I saw a little pushback after last week's UFR about testing shuffle ends when their momentum is taking them towards the back. Yes, test shuffle ends. You know who tested shuffle ends? Michigan, last year, in this game.

Michigan no longer does this, even with McCaffrey in the game.

This is killing Michigan's ground game. Even if the QB keep gets got after a minimal gain (not likely the case on this play), so does belly when the DE doesn't respect the keep. The rote adherence to "shuffle end == give" is allowing AI to run your offense instead of a human. Michigan had one QB keep in this game.

And we're putting in DL to run the ball!

I mean… sort of. To me the Mason thing was just one of those things. He took a direct hit to the ball from an arm and then a helmet to it about a half-second later; the ball was secured by both arms; he didn't forget how to carry the ball. What rankled about that more than the fumble was the approach. This is no read at all:

It gets three yards but it can only get three yards because there's an unblocked end with nothing to do but tackle the back.

But aren't the reads RPOs?

I mean, I guess, but with one exception these are the same things Michigan was getting killed on against Joe Moorhead PSU. The game moves, and if you're still running stuff from three years ago you're done.

As a program Michigan has an incredible knack for picking up stuff just when everyone figures out how they want to defend it. Michigan imported Mike DeBord to run an all zone-stretch offense because Alex Gibbs made it cool with the Denver Broncos; Mike Hart spent a ton of time dodging guys in the backfield. Michigan picked up athletic QBs and ran zone read stuff after defenses had evolved ways to defend it. And now they've imported a bunch of RPOs that Wisconsin had downloaded.

It says a lot that Patterson's interception came when a DL batted a pass on a literal run play with a pass attached.

It says that we are 25 minutes into this game and Michigan has run the ball three times for a total of seven yards and a fumble.

More generally, opponents are wise to the basic RPO slant that is the large majority of what Michigan is trying to do in this department. This is a pick if the safety sitting on the RPO slant doesn't leave the area for no apparent reason:

UW safety to top of screen

These are not the wide open chunks of yesteryear, and since Michigan wasn't running that's not buying you anything on the ground.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the offense?

Also bad!

Shea Patterson:

SHEA PATTERSON

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
MTSU	2	14(3)	3		4	3(1)		1	2	4(2)*	2*		70%	-
Army	1	17(2)+++	1		1	3		-	6*	5	-		61%	-
Wisconsin	2	15(3)++	1		7	7		1*	2*	5	2*		63%	-

Patterson ate a ton of pressure and that is a mitigating factor. But, yeah, back to back days in the low 60s is tough.

Patterson has no idea what the defense is doing and what that means for who's going to be open. This ended up being a punt to Collins, who's running a corner route. He draws a flag, so hooray. Also Patterson looks at him and only him for the whole play despite… you know:

MCKEON

And then there was the coda. Unless there's a stunning turnaround over the rest of the season Nico Collins, who is open by 10 yards, jumping up and down while Patterson throws into double coverage is going to be the lasting image of Patterson's time as the starter.

At this point I think this is all the Shea Patterson there is. Any particular instance of not finding an open receiver is just a blip, and sometimes it works anyway. The consistency with which Patterson seems to lock into one guy pre-snap and then either throw that or bail and improvise pops out when you do every play in detail. Wisconsin seemed to know this and spent a lot of time dropping LBs into the boundary. The first snap was an example of this. Patterson was able to rescue it:

But is that the play? To me he does have Black on his first read. If he's uncomfortable with that because there are a zillion guys to the boundary, it seems like you should look to the field, where Collins and Charbonnet are somewhere between open and "is this a zombie movie?":

If you're looking at five guys in coverage to the short side of the field and it doesn't click that maybe the other two-thirds of the playing surface is a good bet, you're gonna have a bad time. Not necessarily on this play, because it worked, but the rest of the game until Let's Punt Oh It Works time was a demonstration of the limits of this approach.

Third and five on the next drive demonstrated that. Patterson decides to hump it up in a thicket of zone coverage to the boundary. There is zero window here as the boundary OLB drops into an out:

Watching the safety who spins down take away the short out and then get to double McKeon is very frustrating. It feels like Wisconsin picked up on a Patterson boundary tendency and sold out on it because they were certain he would never switch fields.

It's not that Patterson never goes through progressions but it doesn't seem to be a pattern. He's not systematic, he just does stuff. On third and five he's probably expecting man coverage that gets McKeon open presnap. Wisconsin shifts late, McKeon gets a guy, and Patterson is one read and then in improv mode:

This too works out because DPJ gets interfered with but Collins is the systematic read since he's on a drag that will pop open once you don't like the TE out. It does pop open. Patterson improvises.

On the other hand, Patterson was faced with a ton of guys going nowhere. Gattis appears to love routes where guys do nothing at all except sit down? How many guys on this play are real options?

The two guys to the boundary sit down with defenders in their grill and just stop. McKeon is a TE in the flat, hooray. If Bell isn't open there's nowhere else to go, and Patterson gets what he was going to get anyway by scrambling. This was a disturbing trend. WRs farted out five yard nothing routes that had no chance on a regular basis.

 

I will defend Patterson's accuracy a bit. Various balls that looked bad were either because he was getting blown up or because he put it in the buttzone for Collins and got some awful refereeing. An unimpeded Collins catches this:

But! Various Ronnie Bell diving non-catches were bad. This is a touchdown if Patterson hits Bell in stride.

Bell digs that out and makes the catch, replay be damned. But that is a touchdown, except it's not, just like last week against Army. Patterson's bad stuff is still bad and his good stuff has been minimized.

You mentioned punting it up?

This has to be happening in practice, right?

We're 15 games into Patterson's career and these are the first real Rex Grossman shots. That is nuts. I am perpetually frustrated by the lack of replay on various potential long shots but sheeeeeeeeit. Michigan sends three guys deep on this; Wisconsin has exactly three defenders off the screen:

Throw the ball! Are you here to check it down when you have 6'3" and 6'5" guys in single coverage? Throw the ball.

They did that!

Yeah, the second touchdown was a series of downfield heaves that Michigan's giant very good wide receivers paid off, even if they got weak OPI calls like the above. Black was able to bail out a very, very short throw on the next play as Patterson got lit up…

…and this was the most offense type thing of the day:

It is outright stupid that it took three games and a DGAF attitude down 35-8 in the fourth quarter to try a fade from a guy who led the Big Ten in deep ball accuracy last year to the giant guy with an 81% contested catch rate. It's Denard-under-center stupid.

Also note that after the consecutive bombs to Collins and Black, UW played in the parking lot and Michigan got their easiest first down of the year:

A second ten yard hitch in a similar situation came on third and ten and got jumped, because that's a lot more predictable on third down.

In conclusion,

Argle garble argle.

Can I pin all my hopes on McCaffrey?

Maybe?

DYLAN MCCAFFREY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Wisconsin	1	4	1							1	1*		75%	-
--														-
--														-

The one bit of hope coming out of this game was Dylan McCaffrey. His performance was statistically uninspiring but pretty good, all things considered. The offense seemed to, you know, work. He got a couple of one-man PA plays with Eubanks releasing upfield after faking the split zone/arc block. He got heat on both and was able to drop in pretty touch passes:

He also displayed hints that he might be better at reading defenses than Patterson. His throw on the deep crossing route to McKeon really should have been brought in, and is the kind of anticipation throw that Michigan has been sorely lacking.

He had some bad moments—there was a ball nowhere near Bell and a near pick thrown after staring down DPJ—and then he got obliterated. We won't see him this week, but if Michigan's still farting around when he's back from his concussion you may as well put him in and see if he can expand on the above.

Uh we seem to talk about the OL more quickly most of the time?

Well, most of the time they're around, doing stuff. Prepare for the strangest run chart in a minute.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	Total	Notes
Runyan		1	-1	ok
Bredeson	0.5	0.5	0	huh
Ruiz	4	3	1	Mauled a guy the one time they ran up the middle.
Onwenu	4		4	hooray
Mayfield	2	2.5	-0.5	present
McKeon	1	1	0
Eubanks				got a free kickout
All				Goal line only.
Hayes	0.5	3	-2.5	eh
Schoonmaker		1	-1
TOTAL	12	12	50%	all time record for lowest OL run game charting events by a mile
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Patterson		2	-2
McCaffrey		1	-1
Charbonnet				2 carries
Turner	2		2	Seemingly healthy also good 6 carries
Wilson				DNP, get well soon
Mason		3	-3	Fumble.
Haskins
TOTAL	2	6	-4	We like to fumble
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
DPJ		3	-3
Collins
Black	1	2	-1
Bell	1	1	0
Johnson
Sainristil			-	DNC
Jackson
TOTAL	2	6	-4	eh
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	50	22	69%	Bredeson –6, Runyan –5, Mayfield –4, Onwenu –3, Ruiz –2, Haskins –1, TEAM –1.
RPS	4	9	-5	splort

 

The run stuff is whatever, low sample size and largely beaten back by mental errors and bad design. The pass protection was a major issue. Maybe not quite as much of one as Klatt kept making it out to be since there were a lot of plays on which Michigan had plenty of time, but… yeah. When you are getting driven back into Patterson by one guy, can't pick up stunts regularly, and both tackles eat instant spins repeatedly, it's alarming.

Also Michigan gave up a pressure on a three man rush.

Meanwhile Wisconsin was constantly dropping one of their OLBs into coverage and seeing that baffle either Patterson, the OL, or both. Sam Webb related on WTKA that Patterson got hit 19 times in this game:

That'll throw you off.

Are the wide receivers leaving the team in protest?

Uh…

You know who.

Ah, answers itself, then. This was a good week for them, with three circus catches and no routine drops.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

	THIS WEEK					SEASON
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
DPJ	2			1/1					1/1
Collins	3	1/1	2/2	1/1		6	1/1	3/3	5/6
Black	1	1/2		2/2		4	1/2	1/2	8/9
Bell	3	1/2	0/1	2/2		6	1/3	2/4	8/8
Johnson	1					1	1/1	1/1
Sainristil						1
Jackson
McKeon	2		1/2	1/1		4	0/1	1/2	5/5
Eubanks	3	0/2		4/4		4	0/2	1/1	6/6
All
Mason
Charbonnet				1/1		2		0/1	5/5
Turner				1/1					2/2
Wilson
VanSumeren

Routes: Black +-, Johnson -.

And if they're mad they should be. If I was a Michigan wide receiver not named Ronnie Bell I'd be pretty pissed, too. But I wonder about what's going on with them and Gattis. Way too many routes in this game were desultory hitches on which WRs ran downfield, stopped, and just stood there. Look at the two guys to the top of the screen:

Those are never going to be open, and then there's no plan B if you don't like your first option. This happened a lot. Here's a max-pro deep shot on which Eubanks and Collins stop at eight yards and watch Ronnie Bell and only Ronnie Bell do things:

I am generally not a fan of "this works or nothing does" pass plays.

I also wonder if they're supposed to be adjusting to zone stuff and just aren't. There was an incident in the second OT against Army when Patterson winged it way wide of Black on a hitch; in another world that was a good throw right on the sideline to convert. A similar thing happened to end the first drive of the second half. McCaffrey wings this wide of Black; in another world this is a slick out on the sidelines to convert.

McCaffrey has to put it there to avoid the underneath zone defender. Now that it's happened repeatedly I wonder if there's some sort of adjustment Black isn't making here; it seems obvious that a quick out is a better bet against a team that loves dropping OLBs just like this.

(But also watch Collins explode through a jam to the bottom of the screen.)

Everything was broken and let's jump in a fire.

Heroes?

As a group the WR corps did what the could. McCaffrey? Turner?

Maybe not so heroic?

Literally everyone else.

What does it mean for [gestures at season]?

Nothin' good.