Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama

Submitted by Brian on May 10th, 2018 at 1:15 PM

37907506721_576725da5c_z

[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: This went a little less well than the Vandy game. It was a blowout from the drop and finished 66-3. FWIW, Bama was the #5 pass defense last year and was #29 in adjusted sack rate. Neither of those numbers do this outing justice.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: lol nope

Oh, there is one thing of note: Ole Miss ran a lot of max pro even on things like all slants, so if those were covered Patterson did not have checkdown options. Also some of their plays didn't look like passing concepts so much as presnap read sorts of plays where you've got a screen on one side but can decide to hand off or take a shot at a downfield fade. On these plays Patterson was locked into one guy in a route if he chose the fade, even if that fade got wrecked by a DB.

As a result of these two tendencies, Patterson ended up throwing into tight coverage a ton. Only rarely was this a bad decision; most of the time he either literally had no choice or the guy he was throwing at was the least bad option.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass TE flare screen Knox 5
I have nothing QB related to say about this. (CA, 3, screen)
M18 3 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Everyone jammed into the boundary again as Miss wants that space for their solo WR. Fake flare screen, fake handoff, none of this impacts the decision here to go solo backside. Presnap read with the flare option? I don’t know. Post-snap result is that there's one guy in a route and Patterson has to throw it. Metcalf gets destroyed by the CB and Patterson’s accurate-seeming fade ends up yards too long because of the CB jam. (not charted, 0, protection 1/1)
M15 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
7 man slide protection as OM tries to go deep; slightly delayed blitz gets through clean and Patterson has to bug out before it seems like any of his routes develop. He tosses it away as he gets to the sideline. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M15 3 8 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 Dime split 5 Pass Comeback Metcalf Inc
Time for one quick read and then RT gets run over so another bug out. Patterson finds Metcalf for a first down but Metcalf leaps to catch a ball that hits him in the chest and doesn’t get a foot down on a sideline catch he should really make. (CA+, 2, protection ½)
M24 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Dime even 4 Run QB draw Patterson 6
Draw ends up wide open as the closest thing to a LB in the box here is a safety at ten yards. Patterson again slides down before contact when he could probably get the first down here if he’s more aggressive. RPS +1.
M30 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Lodge Inc
LB shows blitz and comes, getting through untouched up the gut. Patterson chucks up a fade in response. That fade is too far inside but the DB is focused on the WR and the ball hits the turf harmlessly. PR? IN? MA? I punt. (MA, 0, protection 0/2)
M30 3 4 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Lodge INT
Multiple issues here as Patterson doesn’t see that his slot WR is much more open here than the outside guy, Lodge. Lodge then gets beat up on the route by the CB a bit and Patterson wings the pass a yard wide. CB deflects and then INTs; Lodge thinks it’s incomplete and stops, TD results. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 ? 7 Pass Skinny post Metcalf 17
Miss part of this play, come back with PA fake and Patterson setting up. Metcalf breaks inside of the DB and runs a skinny post; Patterson throws a lovely soft toss directly to his hands that arcs over the DB for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O45 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Stop and go Lodge Inc
Delayed release from Lodge; he gets inside of the CB and jets past him. S to this side busts, probably because of the delayed release, and Patterson has a wide open guy for a 45 yard TD… who he misses. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O45 3 5 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A 0
Another untouched rusher up the gut. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Metcalf 25
Quick hitch turns into a big gain because of a missed tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
50 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Improv Lodge 35
Orbit motion for Brown from the slot discombobulates Bama D, with the FS running to cover Brown on a flare route. Nobody replaces him. Patterson has time to see that and hit the should-be-open post route but hesitates, and then an unblocked edge rusher has him in his sights. Patterson breaks the pocket and finds a receiver for a deep gain… the same guy he should have thrown it to in the first place. (CA+, 3, protection ½, RPS +2)
O15 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 6
Another dink throw that the WR turns into something. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O9 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3 stack 7 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Similar to the INT except Brown is very not open and the throw is on target. CB wins route and gets a PBU. Nobody is open so this was the best option despite the low probability of success. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O14 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop and go RB -5
RB out of the backfield, flare screen pump fake and then Patterson wants to hit the one dude in a route over the top. He’s blanketed. Patterson throws the flare screen now, way too late for anything but doom. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -3)
O9 3 14 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Dig Jefferson 10
Solid protection for a while until a big guy gets through on a stunt; Patterson can still hang in the pocket and step into a dart across the middle for Jefferson, who is a few yards short. Down 21-0, OM kicks a field goal. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 6
Edge is open as the playside DE sucks inside too far. LB does a good job to beat a block and scrape out to help cut it down. Patterson’s part in this is to run reasonably fast and get cut down by the LB from behind. RPS +1.
M32 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Slant Lodge Inc (Pen)
Patterson again gets an unblocked edge rusher; he stands in and fires an accurate ball to Lodge, who has the CB draped all over him. Dude gets a fairly iffy PI, but the throw was the only place it could be and was made with a dude bearing down on Patterson. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Seven man protection against a four man rush; one very covered short route and two deep guys who looks bracketed. Patterson should probably LIVE MAS at this point down 28-3 and take a shot but it’s more prudent to bail out when the pressure comes, which is way too early, and then throw it away. (TA, 0, protection ½
O39 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Another completely unblocked guy off the edge as nobody bothers to block the backside DE on a PA. Ole Miss is again using this fake screen action that Bama isn’t falling for and they absolutely do not have the blocking for so there’s again one guy in a realistic route, the backside fade dude. CB is over the top of this and the ball is way long and OOB. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
O39 3 6 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
This time two guys come scot free as OM tries to set up a screen and Bama engulfs the back in the backfield. Nowhere to go but down. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, RPS -2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 1 20 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -2
Not as bad as some other pressure events as pocket mostly holds, but Patterson has happy feet by now. He tries to run up in the pocket and gets tripped up by his own man, who got driven back in the pocket. (TA, 0, protection ½)
M11 2 22 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Sack N/A -1
PA, trying to go deep, DT gets around his man to flush Patterson. A second guy is coming from the outside so Patterson can’t step and fire; a third contains and #2 sacks. Patterson’s got the ball out like the proverbial loaf of bread(?) and fumbles(-3). (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M12 3 21 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Flare screen RB 3
Meh (CA, 3, screen)
M37 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB 4
More jogging off the line by the OM WRs; free rusher and Patterson just dumps it to the RB for a few. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
M41 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 5.5 Pass In Metcalf Inc
Metcalf gets zero separation and this is going to be a dink at best; Patterson throws it well behind his guy and it gets PBU’d. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M41 3 6 Shotgun empty 1 1 3 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A -11
Yet another unblocked guy right up the gut. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M16 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -6
PA, unblocked guy unthreatened by run, cover-2 corner on the quick out, Patterson hesitates and is sacked. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -2)
M10 3 16 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB Inc
DE instantly through the line, Patterson checks down and misses but really at this point it’s 38-3 and he’s about to get killed on every snap. (MA, 1, protection 0/2)
M28 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even 7 Pass PA TE wheel Knox 23
Virtually unblocked guy up the gut, VUGUG. Patterson drifts away from him to buy time and the TE actually gets open as he sells an out and then breaks upfield. Patterson puts it right on him. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O35 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Time! Patterson actually has a lot of it here. I can’t see if anyone’s open. One guy on a fade really isn’t. Patterson gets pressure eventually, rolls, keeps looking, and finally dumps it. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O35 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass In Metcalf 4
Patterson checks down on third and long because a three man rush gets through clean and he can’t let it develop. Immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O31 3 5 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Jefferson Inc
Patterson probably bugs out too early here and just needs a little patience to let it develop, but how could you have patience at this point? He breaks forward, gets a spy in his face, and misses Jefferson at the sticks on a flick because he’s getting tackled as he throws it. (BA, 0, protection 2/2)
O32 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass In Metcalf Inc
It’s 52-3 so grain of salt on decisions here as Patterson tries not to get killed. FWIW, this is another zero-good-options throw; he throws an in to a FR WR who’s lost the route and DB PBUs. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O32 3 12 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 DIme even 5 Pass Hitch Brown Inc
Reasonably good protection; Brown open a few yards short of the sticks as Bama is playing soft; good throw, dropped. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O32 4 12 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Improv N/A INT
VUGUG. This time RG ole blocks the NT. Patterson drifts back and just chucks it in the direction of a guy; S undercuts for the INT. This isn’t even a bad decision given the situation. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M23 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Fade Lodge 37
Three man rush by Bama’s second unit just gives Patterson enough time to chuck a fade down the sideline that is very well covered and dead on the money; Lodge goes up to make a tough catch. (DO, 2, protection ½)
O44 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over 7 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
VUGUG. Patterson does a good job to avoid the guy and finds his RB wide open on the sideline but wings it over his head. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
O44 3 14 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Out Jefferson 4
Decent protection; at this point whatevs. Ball is high and forces a good catch. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)

Probably a lot of useful information from this game against one of the nation's top defenses, right?

nooooooooope

Why not?

Imagine last year's Michigan OL playing Bama.

No.

Fair enough. Since we're not imagining things, here's Patterson's night in a nutshell:

During one stretch Patterson was sacked on five of eight dropbacks. If you're not a chart-reader, about halfway through the game (but most of the way through the chart since the 4th was irrelevant) I got frustrated by typing the same thing about a Virtually Unblocked Guy Up the Gut and started typing VUGUG when that happened.

This was a debacle from the start, out of hand by the end of the first quarter, and very little of it had anything to do with Patterson. He did show some happy feet and miss some throws after moving around in the pocket, but the environment was such that it would have been a shock if he did not.

But enough about Michigan's pass protection.

Yes, the flashbacks to various Michigan QBs laying crumpled under a pile of bodies were persistent and severe here. For the record, I had Ole Miss's pass protection at 22/55, probably a UFR record low 40%, and on many Ole Miss dorfs I thought about a third protection negative because the pressure was coming directly up the middle of the field.

This wasn't a guy coming around the edge and sacking the QB after he maybe had time to get the ball out. This was someone running inside the tackle, usually untouched. Patterson frequently had to start moving before he'd even set up to throw.

Did this exercise produce anything at all?

One hell of a Poor Damn Shea Patterson passing chart, for one:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Alabama   2 15(3)+++     8   3   1 3 3 1   64% -
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

These pressure-heavy games become hard to chart as I try to suss out what is a reasonable grade for any particular throw when you have the dread certainty someone's about to take your head off. FWIW, one interception—a fourth and twelve heave after VUGUG—got marked a "marginal" throw because the right thing to do was fling the ball in the general direction of one of your guys. The other one could have been either an IN or a BR; I went with the more judgy BR. This is bad but it's not throwing it to a linebacker's chest:

Given the situation, Patterson's part in this debacle is at worst neutral for Michigan's prospects. And it might be positive? He was put in a number of no-win scenarios, like this incomplete slant on Ole Miss's best drive.

image

That's destined for a PBU, but all options are bad here. It's a seven man protection with only three guys in the route. The slot's covered, the solo WR to the bottom of the screen is getting jammed to oblivion, and the targeted Van Jefferson has lost his route badly. At least this time Patterson wasn't running for his life.

Patterson duly threw these passes even if it was clear the WR—frequently for some reason true freshman DK Metcalf—was getting his face pressed off.

He had no other choice unless being buried under 500 pounds of Bama lineman counts. Metcalf in particular had a rough game, unable to get off the line of scrimmage with any consistency and poor when given an opportunity to catch a ball.

For Patterson to (mostly) maintain his accuracy and not do anything truly egregious is impressive. Probably the worst thing he did was miss Lodge when he busted open for a 45-yard TD, and he did pepper in a couple pretty throws:

And while he had this without rolling out, this escapability and ability to put the ball on the money 30 yards downfield while on the move is impressive:

Lord knows Michigan's going to need that next year.

So… punt?

More or less. Patterson had very few opportunities to do anything and was being chased all night. I don't think any QB could have been effective given the chaos around him; this is no more meaningful than Patterson torching UT-Martin.

Michigan 93, Nebraska 57

Michigan 93, Nebraska 57

Submitted by Ace on March 5th, 2017 at 10:45 PM

Michigan already knew their Big Ten Tournament fate heading into their game at Nebraska. The game still had stakes, however.

One more victory and the Wolverines could feel secure about their NCAA Tournament standing. They wrapped that up early in the second half, then turned their focus to history.

Derrick Walton got his name in the Michigan record book with 16 assists, breaking Gary Grant's mark of 14 through masterful orchestration of John Beilein's offense. Walton also led the team with 18 points and five steals. He turned the ball over only twice.

With his 209th win, Beilein tied with Johnny Orr atop the all-time wins list among Michigan coaches. The final buzzer also required an update to my favorite running stat of the season:

Heading into tonight, Nebraska's worst loss of the season was by 17 points—at Kansas. Michigan doubled that margin and added a bucket for good measure.

They did so in much the same fashion by which they defeated the Huskers at Crisler. Walton played the role of distributor in the first half, working the pick-and-pop with Moe Wagner, who sunk all three of his three-point attempts in the opening stanza. Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, the other primary beneficiaries of Walton's largesse, joined Wagner as double-digit scorers in the first half.

Unlike the game in Ann Arbor, Nebraska couldn't come close to keeping pace. Tai Webster and Glynn Watson combined for 50 points on 21-for-35 shooting in the first matchup; they had 13 points tonight, going 5-for-17 from the field. The invigorated, pesky Michigan defense forced 16 turnovers and locked down the perimeter, limiting the Huskers to a 2-for-15 performance from beyond the arc.

Walton began hunting his own shot in the second half, especially when Wagner had to sit after picking up two quick fouls. He scored 11 points in the half before Beilein called off the dogs. Michigan pushed the lead as high as 38 on an Ibi Watson fast break layup from Xavier Simpson; Sean Lonergan scored his third and fourth points of conference play on the previous possession.

The final numbers are astonishing. Michigan scored 1.43 points per possession while ceding only 0.88 by the Huskers. They went 20-for-27 on twos, 14-for-27 on threes, and 11-for-14 at the line. Of their 34 field goals, 20 were assisted. With the defense taking away any threat of the outside shot, Nebraska had no means to stay close.

Michigan faces Illinois at noon on Thursday in the 8/9 game of the conference tournament, a fitting start to a postseason run with a much brighter outlook since the Maverick Morgan Revenge Tour began in January. The squad that showed up tonight—and the one that administered to five other teams their worst beating of the season—can play with anybody in the country.