Message board guy for the win. Designated NCAA leak recipient Pete Thamel has a new article out with some details that more or less confirm the post on our message board that I thought was credible when I posted on Friday. Thamel is an irritating writer who habitually writes his articles in such a way as to maximize the scandalousness of whatever's going on…

Stalions forwarded the tickets he bought to at least three different people in different areas of the country, sources say, which hints at the breadth of the operation.

…so I don't want to quote from it heavily. But the upshot is:

• Stalions bought tickets to ~30 games at 11 Big Ten schools in his own name.
• He sent those tickets to other people.
• Those people taped the sidelines.

As Seth pointed out on Twitter, Thamel—or the person feeding him—seems to have misinterpreted an area of the NCAA bylaws that's meant to restrict what you can do on your own sideline. Also note that these games go back three years; Stalions was hired in May of 2022.

A precedent, but probably not particularly applicable. A message board poster dug up a Baylor infractions case from 2016 where an assistant coach attended a game of a future opponent and was handed a half-game suspension. The NCAA has traditionally been disinclined to do much about minor one-off issues, which are labeled "secondary violations" and get tit-for-tat punishments. They don't contribute in any way to a larger case of lack of institutional control. Most schools self-report a handful of these on an annual basis.

It seems clear that Stalions was engaging in an extended scheme to try to benefit Michigan football and this will not be handled as a secondary violation. But about that…

[After THE JUMP: mmm parsing]

Hooray for legalese. This is the internet, and it is specifically the Michigan internet, so we are overrun by lawyers parsing the NCAA rulebook and saying "welllllll…" The bylaw Michigan is accused of violating literally says only this: "Off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents (in the same season) is prohibited." The end. Friend of blog Richard Hoeg:

The money trail is going to answer a lot here but looking at the rules, I’m not sure they actually anticipate/prohibit what is alleged here, particularly where Stallions didn’t himself go to the games.

Good faith violation? Potentially, sure. But rules breach? Not as clear. https://t.co/IRw61GRGVU

— Richard Hoeg (@HoegLaw) October 23, 2023

Dan Wetzel has an article that goes into the gray areas:

No source has suggested that any Michigan staffers, assistants or athletic department employees were flying off to games to scout in person. Almost everyone, after all, has their own gameday duties. Plus, doing so would require a vast conspiracy including, almost assuredly, the athletic department accounting office reimbursing travel costs. …

Sources have said any information from in-person observation came from others. Who are they? It’s not known publicly, but perhaps friends, family, fans? Anyone willing — if you accept the allegations — to go to a game and acquire information.

In a legal sense — NCAA legal — would random people who knew a coach or Michigan staffer be considered representatives of Michigan’s athletic interests?

The bylaw against in-person scouting does not state who is prohibited from off-campus scouting. Could that mean everyone? Or only the coaching staff? Or athletic personnel also? When the rule was first enacted in 1994, no one could have envisioned cell phones filming sidelines. Or maybe no one could have considered anyone would have attempted to send some old friend to the game.

Or consider this: Every coaching staff in the country receives unsolicited emails from random fans offering free “advice” on how the team should play. If a coach opens an email from a fan — or runs into one at a coffee shop — who said he was at a previous game against this week’s opponent and notes they should exploit the Cover 2 defense, is that a violation?

If this gets into a heated NCAA case, expect the definition of who is and isn’t prohibited from scouting to be a big deal.

Personally I do not think that Stalions's sleight of hand is going to fly as a reason to let his scheme slide. I do think a competent Michigan defense ties up as many resources as possible arguing it.

The NCAA acknowledges this is not a major advantage. The rules committee actually considered repealing 11.6.1 a couple years ago. Their rationale:

Rationale: The Board of Directors Infractions Process Committee requested that the Legislative Committee Modernization of the Rules Subcommittee focus its rules modernization efforts on identifying rules that no longer serve the needs of the membership and the 21st century student-athlete, and recommending modifications to or the elimination of such rules. Specifically, livestreams of intercollegiate competition and prerecorded game film are readily available in the digital age. The minimal competitive advantage gained by scouting future opponents in-person is outweighed by the monitoring and enforcement burdens of ensuring compliance with the legislation.

Michigan's sign stealing operation already worked with available TV and all-22 tape plus past games against the same opponents; the additional benefit of Stalions's operation is unknowable but is probably minimal.

I doubt any of this gets traced any further up the chain than Stalions. "Is it plausible this guy was just BUYING TICKETS on his 55k salary HIMSELF?!?!" I mean, yes. Yes, Connor Stalions is the kind of Michigan superfan who would spend a bunch of his own money to help Michigan win in any way imaginable:

All through college, Connor spent summers and time off returning to Michigan to volunteer at U of M football camps and clinics. There was no vacation, just relentless pursuit of improving his coaching craft. He quickly befriended the assistant coaches and gained their trust because he was willing to do any work.  Upon graduating from the Naval Academy he was stationed at Camp Pendleton in San Diego for basic training. 

Connor knew he had to keep volunteering at Michigan to pursue his dream, so he had to find a way to make money to fund all of his volunteer work.  He bought a house near the airport and rented all its bedrooms on AirBnB while he slept on the couch. Then he realized he could shorten his commute if he just slept in the car.  So, he did and pocketed enough money to travel to every Michigan football game on his own dime to volunteer.  He did this for years and finally earned a full-time entry position as an offensive analyst.  

This is exactly the kind of person who would buy various tickets to Big Ten games so people he knows can film the sideline and his sign-stealing can be marginally more effective. Also, the fact that he bought them in his name reveals a sort of naivete that is less likely the higher this goes up the chain. It seems likely Stalions thought this would be okay if he didn't go himself.

There is not going to be a postseason ban, now or at any point in the future. The NCAA has probably issued its last-ever postseason ban when it blocked Oklahoma State from the NCAA tournament. Since, we've seen instances of a head coach literally, personally paying recruits and an FBI-sourced scheme to pay recruits to go to Kansas result in approximately nothing. LSU, NC State, Arizona, and perpetual offender Louisville also avoided any meaningful punishment.

The NCAA has not even issued a notice of allegations, and Michigan has 90 days to respond to one.

The prospect of the NCAA massively deviating from its recent infractions history to hammer Michigan outside the bounds of its own rules for a low-level staffer engaging in a practice the NCAA itself believes offers a "minimal competitive advantage" is so far beyond the bounds of credibility to strain credulity. If you are conspiracy-minded about the infractions committee being out to get Harbaugh, you should note that an equally credible conspiracy theory is that television executives would have a conniption fit if Michigan was banned from the postseason.

What's going to happen, in all likelihood: Stalions will be given a show cause, Michigan will be fined a surprisingly large amount of money, they will be given a lengthy probation, and that's it.