Baumgardner: Harbaugh should change his philosophy about what wins big games or M will stay nationally irrelevant
Nick's latest, making the case that to go from good to playoff contenders Harbaugh must adjust his offensive philosophy.
"When talent is close to even in modern football, the team that rides with its best athletes and an open throttle wins more than not...
"If you enter a football game against a team with even or better talent and don't have enough in your toolbox to change speeds and allow your best athletes to be explosive, you're going to lose. Michigan went conservative without enough tempo at Ohio State and lost. It went conservative without enough tempo against Florida in the Peach Bowl and lost. It went conservative without enough tempo in the season-opener at Notre Dame and lost."
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2019/01/08/jim-harbaugh-michigan/2509625002/
January 8th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
"The assertion that you'll get negged for disagreeing with Harbaugh is not somewhere we agree."
His initial comment was referring to Baumgardner getting negged, not himself.
"I guess my options are to stay away from the boards or to find a way to enjoy reading the same comments over and over? That's a bummer."
I'm sick to fucking death of references to khakis, whole milk, steak, EUTM, who's got it better than us, and all the other completely irrelevant Harbaughmanic memes that are still trotted out on a daily basis. I don't give a bleeding shit about the endless stream of "posbang" threads, repetitive hype videos, and celebrations of the awesomeness of Don Brown's moustache.
I can simply choose not to read them.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
We have the tendency as a fan base to stick our heads in the sand when the walls start closing in. Unless there are drastic changes made to our offensive philosophy, we will never beat Ohio State and we will never take the next step.
Refusing to have Collins, DPJ, and Black on the field at the same time while guys like McKeon, Gentry, and Martin get significant playing time is absurd. Don’t even get me started on our obsession with running the football down 3+ scores and not having a tempo package.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
I can't even imagine our TE's trying to block those DE's last night.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
There definitely was a different look regarding the players of both teams last night that is not the same in our players. I was thinking this same thing about our TEs last night and quickly stopped because it was depressing.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
They're full of roids.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
That thought also crossed my mind last night.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
At the risk of "getting you started", Michigan consistently needed an extra blocker (Tight End) on the field this year because their OL is not yet elite. All of that running they did was in large part due to the strengths of their individual linemen (basically, four guards and a center), despite how painful it was for us poor fans to watch rather than of all those exciting passes we'd hoped for. Martin didn't get nearly as many snaps as DPJ or Collins this year. Black had a pretty significant injury. Tempo/improving their 2-minute offense 100% has to happen next year. I'd be pretty surprised if this isn't equally as evident to Harbaugh as it is to us. This offense will be better next year. Enjoy the off season.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
Clemson hasn't had a single OL drafted into the NFL in the last 4 years yet they are 55-4 in that timeframe with 4 ACC titles and 2 national titles. Tell me how elite their OL is again, thanks.
I'm sick and tired of the excuses this fan base makes. If we have a talent or schematic deficiency anywhere it's Harbaugh's fault and no one else's. Maybe don't recruit so many damn three stars every year.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
Just so I understand. Excuse: "The OL isn't elite" Reason:"Harbaugh hates 5 stars, but loves 3 stars"? Got it.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
No you don't understand. If you want to run a 1970's offense then you better have 5 star players at every position if you want to be successful. If you don't have that type of talent then running a modern offense out of 11 or 10 personnel is probably the best way to maximize your results. Packing three star TE's and fullbacks into the LOS and asking them to block Clemson's DL last night would have been beyond comical. That we're going to be starting a Hoke recruited OT and a 3 star from Connecticut on the OL next year says to me Harbaugh still has some major recruiting issues.
January 8th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Exactly this. And this was proven this year against teams we "out talented". And proven in the exact opposite direction of teams we were on par with or slightly below talent-wise. Great post, thanks.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Did you read the same comment I did because that’s sure not what I got out of it. You don’t have to have an elite o line to win. They just have to be serviceable and you scheme around that.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
Don’t worry..
Mgogogogurt says that the offense will be better so it must be!
January 8th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
I'd be pretty surprised if this isn't equally as evident to Harbaugh as it is to us.
That's the thing I don't get. Harbaugh has played football for his entire life, and he's been a coach for a long time now. Given that he's been good at doing both, why would he not ALREADY realize that a functional 2-minute drill is good to have in your pocket?
The team stopped rolling out new wrinkles as the season went on, so why didn't they use Rutgers week to do nothing but run 2-minute drills? It's really weird.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
He does know.
I watched Standford vs. USC from 2010 the other day. Stanford moves the ball downfield with 50 seconds left without any of the issues we saw this year.
I don't know what's going on, but its not like he thinks "Actually, having an effective 2 minute drill isn't a good idea".
January 8th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
I think they have a systemic play calling issue. We've all seen the "too many cooks in the kitchen" comments. That's at least partially based in reality. The most obvious times for that issue to rear it's head is when the clock is working against you. It's so broken, and the end of the first half against Florida had me cringing, for sure.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
New QB.
We've been through this before.
Harbaugh is not opposed to tempo. He's used it before. But his offenses are complex, and this year's QB was his first in this system. In addition to uploading the offense into Shea's brainspace, Harbaugh did a fair bit of re-education in turning a gunslinger into a risk-avers game manager. On top of that, the offense was adding new pieces throughout the season. MGoBlog covered in detail that our TE (forget which) was struggling to pick up the tweaks to the run game.
Forced to choose, Harbaugh opts to 1) make 100% sure the offense gets the play and lines up properly, 2) adds depth to the playbook, and 3) tempo. #1, check. We didn't have a TE fumble a handoff this season, FWIW. They got to #2 for stretches of the season, extensively detailed in UFR. #3 was going to have to wait.
I'm not saying it's the best way to do things, per se. But he's had success with it, and it's not like he has no clue what tempo is or does.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
Yeah, the OL was weaker than we'd hoped and thought (for much of the year), and certainly needs to keep improving. But the offense needs far more than just a 2-minue offense and some capability for tempo. It's needs a new dose aggressiveness in the form of pass routes and run options. Both teams last night flung the ball all over the field, and ran it everywhere - including tossing it forward into the line. In contrast, Michigan throws outside and runs safely behind the OL.
DPJ and Collins combined for less than 90 catches and 1300 yards for the entire season.
January 8th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
the tempo thing is maddening...... one would think, down three scores, is to leave our best players on field and let shea call a list of plays on the spot, instead subbing in and out.... this was hoke level ineptitude and shocked at harbaugh...truly...
January 8th, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
So basically Nick finally wrote an article summarizing what this board has known all along. Cool.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
Nick B. echoes back whatever he sees in the most recent games. Early in the season Harbaugh was a genius on offense, now he's throttling our offense.
I actually don't mind the narrative changes: I think there is sufficient recent information (i.e., Rutgers through the bowl game) to warrant calls for a serious philosophical shift.
We, as a fanbase, should have known that something was up when 200 passing yards became the normal stat line. The people on this board who worried about it early in the season...well, we owe them a collective "yeah, you were right."
January 8th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
It's also an easy take after Shea and Cornelius Johnson said that the coaches were going to open things up and let the playmakers make plays. When Harbaugh does it, Baumgardner can say he foretold the change.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
It’s taken $28 million and four years for Harbaugh to figure this out?
January 8th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
He's obviously not as smart as we are, don't be condescending about it.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
It has only recently become OK to direct any criticism toward Harbaugh. It wasn't really an acceptable position to have that there was something that may need to change until about the South Carolina game or maybe even the Notre Dame game this year. People who dared murmur as early as like the Purdue game of 2017 were brutalized. One positive about a relatively disappointing stretch of football is that everybody can at least speak freely and sometimes critically about the coaching staff both good and bad and not get attacked.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
There has been an article saying this exact thing every single day since the debacle in Columbus.
We fucking get it.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
We do all get it. We just have to hope that Harbaugh does too. And he hasn't shown he does yet.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:37 AM ^
Kind of like how Saban did last night?
January 8th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
I’ll take a national title blow out after multiple national and conference championships any day of the week. Thanks.
Saban is also the same coach who benched his starting qb in the title game last year. Harbaugh couldn’t tell Brandon Peters was better than JOK until late 2017 when the season was already over. Everyone and their mother knew Peters > JOK.
January 8th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
Thank you for addressing this.
Peters > JOK
I recall this decision was made because Peters had a lesser understanding of Jim's convoluted playbook. A better coach would have taken the better talent (Peters) and put him in a position to make plays. Instead, Jim picked the lesser talent to run his yucky playbook.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
Saban wasn’t getting his ass kicked by a mediocre Florida.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
He also didn’t have a handful of starters quit the team before the game.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
That's true. Saban seems to be a better motivator as well.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
It's not hard to be a motivator when you're playing for a national title.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
Which Alabama is every year, so what's the point here?
January 8th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
Wait was Clemson playing manball between the tackles offense?
I missed that.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
At one point last night I saw Clemson cheat. Inside their own 20, 3rd quarter, with a 21 point lead they PASSED on SECOND down. Don't the rules say you have to run at least twice into the line before you pass in that situation? At least that's what I thought. Running three times and punting is preferred because it uses more time, but a safe pass (5 yds or less) is sometimes allowed on third down and less than 5.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
I’m a quasi-rules expert and yes, you’re correct. The rules state: “You must run the fullback up the middle into a stacked box for gains in 1 yard increments.”
January 8th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Kind of like Hoosiers with Coach Norman Dale and the "pass 4 times before you shoot"
January 8th, 2019 at 9:37 AM ^
I tend to agree. When you play more even-matched teams, you won't always be able to win doing what you want to do. Sure, you can out-bully Maryland and Rutgers, but better teams are going to be better at taking that away.
You have to be able to adapt and play to the opponent's weakness
January 8th, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
Saban went with Tempo vs Clemson and got doors blown off.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
Agree. He was running at will and abandoned it just to throw the ball to the other team.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
With the Heisman winning QB? Seems like a good bet. Didn't work, but doesn't seem like a bad thing.
January 8th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
Didn’t know Kyler Murray suited up for Bama last night.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
And what was Clemson doing?
January 8th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
Dabo went with tempo versus Alabama and blew their doors off.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
I can’t disagree with him here. We have very talented players, and we have to let the athletes help us win games instead of suppressing their talent with an overly conservative game plan. The guy is smart and tells it like it is. If you listen to his podcast and how he talks about Beilein, you can see that the guy has no problem giving credit where credit is due. You can’t take the sparty all the way out of him, that passive aggressive stuff just comes with the inferiority complex.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
maximizing explosive athletes in space has to trump time of possession moving forward.
Amen.
Clemson lost the time of possession and rushing stats to Alabama, big time. Didn't matter.
And it did not help Alabama who could not keep pace with Clemson's offense.
40 points.
It takes 40 points to win a big game against elite opposition these days. Your offense better be able to get you there.
This has and will continue to be true for Michigan against Ohio State.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
In the 5 years of the playoffs (15 games) only 3 times has the winner of one of the games scored less then 30 points.
January 8th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
Yes, to use a tired cliche, the paradigm has shifted. But it's true.
Offense wins championships now. You need a good defense to get key stops, but then your offense has to immediately take advantage of that.
Defense and ball control with long but empty drives on offense won't get it done anymore.
Here are the Ohio State scores against Michigan this decade: 37, 34, 26, 42, 42, 42, 30, 31, 62. This even includes some supposedly "offensively challenged OSU teams under Tressel or with Warinner as OC.
It's a pipe dream to think we will beat Ohio State primarily on defense, especially with Day in charge. The days of Bo and Woody 17-10 games are over.
If we beat Ohio State next year, it will be because we scored 40.