The Explanation
11/24/2018 – Michigan 39, Ohio State 62 – 10-2, 8-1 Big Ten
From the start this blog has sought to detach itself from the furies of gameday. This column shows up Monday noonish and is thus the last one to appear. It usually tries to get a grip on the emotional tenor of what happened once whatever red mists have passed. Most games that are not abject humiliations are broken down play-by-play in an attempt to explain what actually happened, and gesture towards why.
So it's natural that people would ask me what happened; I am a person who would be able to venture some guess as to what caused the #1 defense in the country to give up 700 yards and more points than Michigan ever had to Ohio State. And, sure, there are some answers to be had. Ohio State ruthlessly exploited Brandon Watson and Devin Gil. Michigan's game plan was terrible because when you're the #1 defense in the country it's impossible to think your approach needs to be entirely different.
But these are weak justifications for the towering, Lovecraftian whole. They do not begin to explain what happened on Saturday. I struggled to put together anything that would be remotely satisfying. Then I figured it out: the fact that makes all the puzzle pieces slot together.
This is Hell.
[Bryan Fuller]
I am being punished for some sin so colossal that it justifies me reliving my life over and over again, except the end of every football season has been replaced with every flavor of pain football can hand out. This may be my sin, and the simulation will reveal it to me at the very end. I will be permitted a brief moment of knowing the totality of my existence before being thrown back into the rebooted whole.
Or I may be a person who has committed grievous crimes against football and is being punished by living through this existence as someone who holds my true self in utter contempt. This would in fact be justice for Jim Delany's sordid existence: to bear the brunt of every money-grubbing decision on an annual basis and then get a metaphorical kick to the junk so powerful it might as well be real. The reveal at the end, as I download this into whatever qualifies as a soul before being moving into another college football fan, would be the kind of devastation that you really rely on Hell to dish out.
Other candidates to be placed in this particular hell include everyone involved with replacing Pitbull with Larry Culpepper, that one FOX executive who surrounded himself with prophylactic pictures of his kids and sexually harassed his way out of a job, and people who post pictures of their dogs with captions like "OHHHH WHO'S A GOOD DOGGO" somewhere other than Instagram.
So, good news: you don't exist. Or bad news: if the demons have decided that they can cram all of the above into the same simulation for efficiency's sake, your existence implies that you have sinned powerfully and long, and respite is not coming.
But they messed up, you see. I don't buy this latest one. Oh, I was willing to accept the one where the quarterback breaks his foot in the middle of the game and still nearly carries Michigan to a win, even though the offensive coordinator called the same play he had on before after an OSU timeout. I was willing to accept the one lost by a literal unknowable inch. I was willing to accept DJ Durkin checking out a week early and not being too bright to start with.
I don't buy this one. The one where Ohio State fires one of their coaches for abusing his wife before the season, and Urban Meyer skates. The one where Ohio State loses by 29 to Purdue and barely squeaks out victories over half the Big Ten that Michigan is simultaneously paving. The one where the same team that came one three yard pass to a wide open receiver away from losing to Maryland waltzes through, yes, the #1 defense in the country like it is not there. I know, now. I know this is not a random universe that happens to fall into a maximally painful configuration. I know this is one specifically directed to cause pain, and in that knowledge is… well, not exactly power, but mitigation.
I know what's coming, now, Satan. Bring it on.
[Patrick Barron]
November 26th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
This isn't directed at you, Brian, but I'm frustrated by the coaching hot takes.
The offense put up points. 39 might not have been a true 39, but even 28 points wins every game on Michigan's schedule, except this one.
Don Brown has been the architect of a Top 5 defense for three years running. He's proven he's a good DC. He devised a game plan that was predicated on the following:
1. Winovich and Gary would be able to pressure Haskins (look at Brian's preview for what happens when Haskins gets pressure vs. when he doesn't)
2. Our secondary would hold up in coverage.
Both of those things were true for 11 games this year. They weren't true for this one.
That's it. That's what happened here. Why did they happen? A few of the starters weren't athletic enough (I do have some issues with continuing to play Gil over Ross).
As for Winovich and Gary? Man, who the hell knows.
The offense didn't show up in the ND game. The defense didn't show up in this game.
But, I'm not going to look back on this season and despair. People were saying 8-4, maybe 9-3 if everything breaks right. They beat the crap out of everybody but the two Top 10 teams they played on the road. I'd rather be 10-2 and going to the Rose or Fiesta Bowl than not. FWIW, if Michigan wins their bowl game, here are the seasons that were better (or similar) in the past 40 years...
2011 - 11-2 (win vs OSU and Sugar Bowl vs VT)
2006 - 11-2 (loss to OSU and Rose Bowl loss to USC)
1999 - 10-2 (wins vs OSU and Orange Bowl vs Bama)
1997 - 12-0
1991 - 10-2 (win vs OSU, lost Rose Bowl to Washington)
1986 - 10-2 (win vs OSU, lost Rose Bowl to ASU)
1985 - 10-1-1 (win vs OSU, won Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska)
1980 - 10-2 (win vs OSU, won Rose Bowl vs Washington)
So, we're looking at one of the 10 best seasons in the past 40 years. At this point, the Ohio State stuff is all that's a negative mark against Harbaugh. We finished above 3rd in the Big Ten East, we won versus a ranked team on the road, we showed up in three consecutive "big games".
They've won the 7th most games of any program in the country over the past 4 years. This is a Top 10 program. And, yes, I'm upset, but honestly after surviving the late Carr, RichRod, Hoke years, I'm okay with it too.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
My emotions don't care about facts yet. (upvoting anyway)
November 26th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
I keep wondering why we couldn’t get any consistent pressure with our pass rush. That is the core issue of what doomed us. Gave Haskins absurd amount of time to pick on Watson and Gill. I may be wrong but I think Hill was also out and losing Long only made coverage issues worse.
Losing Bush hurt big time. We needed his sideline to sideline speed.
I think losing JBB last week also really hurt. No UFR but I think they really picked on Steuber with their pass rush and that led to many pressures on Shea.
Reakly just still can’t believe how our badly our defense got dominated.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
I've been thinking about this a lot, too. If we kick the extra points instead of going for two twice, that's 41 points. Would anyone before the game have thought Michigan would lose if they scored 41 points? Of course not. The offensive game plan was frustrating at times, but people are acting like it was a complete tire fire. How does scoring 39 points against a playoff-caliber team on the road give people the impression that Harbaugh's system is outdated and will never work?
November 26th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
Because half of those points came in "garbage time". :(
November 26th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
The offense was not a complete tire fire, but it didn't do it win it really counted. The two most important drives were the first drive of the game (3 and out) and the first drive of the second half when we had stopped them and a TD could put us in the lead (again, quickly over). Not only would scores there change the scoreboard, but change the emotion.
And it wasn't really creative -- the only play I said, "Wow, nice design!" was the fake & pass to Gentry (which he caught in the end zone, and then dropped when the defender hit him) -- where was the "full playbook" that is always soon-to-be-coming? Finally, it didn't utilize what other teams had done against OSU and had repeated, big play success against (jet sweep, ala Maryland anyone?) -- why not?
The truth in today's college football is sometimes you've got to score 50-plus points. That seems crazy, I know. But it's where the game has not only headed, that's where it is at (see Oklahoma, who likely will be in the CFP instead of us). Too many glancing "body blow" plays while the other team is successfully throwing haymakers.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
I understand the complaints and I don't think the offensive game plan was great by any means, but the biggest reason Michigan lost on Saturday was the defense. I don't see Don Brown getting excoriated and rightfully so, because the majority of the fan base knows that one game doesn't suddenly make him a terrible coach.
November 26th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
i would add the evans touchdown to the list of 'nice design' plays.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
Stop with the 'we got 39 points." Yes,literally correct but take a closer look.The 'standard JH offense produced 19 points.The other 20 came from 1.Hurry up late in first half (7 points) 2.Gift TD after fumbled KO and a 1 play drive where we got an RB in space!!!!! Who knew? (6 points) 3.Milton hits a late bomb to set up a meaningless TD (7 points)
November 26th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
The offense has always been B/B- caliber all-year.
There were reasons we justified in this in our heads (not running Shea to "save" him for OSU, doing the bare minimum to skate by against inferior opponents, keeping plays and formations locked up to unleash our full potential against OSU, etc.etc.). None of those turned out to be true and the offense showed that at the end of the day it's ceiling was only what we thought: a B/B- caliber unit.
Nothing more or nothing less happened Saturday.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Yes, the Northwestern game was the alarm bell for me. But I hoped we had grown from that; we really didn't.
We are in a fight for our life, down 17-13, and here is what we run in the 4th quarter on 1st down.
- Pass to Wangler (9 yards)
- Run by Higdon (1 yard)
- Run by Higdon (1 yard)
- Run by Higdon (0 yards)
- Run by Higdon (1 yard)
The "run the RB into the middle" wasn't working, yet we stubbornly stuck with it. But, with some great plays by Shea on 2nd and 3rd down (and a great catch by Gentry), we score.
We need a new OC, with authority, to take us from a B/B- to the "A" that the modern game requires. Just like we improved the OL by hiring a top person with a clear line of authority, the same thing needs to happen to the offense overall. Otherwise, 10-2 is the cap next year as well.
November 26th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
Remember that Dan Enos guy Saban stole away from us. Jim got caught (screwed) in a lurch, and it was too late in the coaching change season to really recover, so we got a continuation of last year as far as playcalling is concerned. With improved o-line play, and a healthy functioning quarterback or two - it looked like it might get it done. It did for every game but the one that really, really mattered.
There's a reason Saban changed from the offensive philosophy Michigan is currently using: it may win most of your B list games, but will not be enough for your A list games. At some point you have to open up and put an insane amount of points on the board.
Look how Bama's passing game is going this year, and imagine having Dan Enos as our passing game coordinator, instead of Pep ...
November 26th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
It's not who the OC that matters, it's what the program (head coach) coach encourages, allows, and reinforces.
November 26th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
41 points should have been enough. I couldn’t agree more.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
The 2011 season was such a weird one. I honestly don't think that team was any better than the 2012 or 2013 teams, it just experienced massive turnover luck and ran into the worst OSU team in the last 40 years or so. The UM 2015, 2016 and 2018 teams would all pave Hoke's best 2011 squad.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
I would say it's not so much the loss as it is the shellacking.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
@smwilliams. 100% agree. We're in good shape. Your two points about our defensive gameplan will work against almost everyone. And they did - until Saturday. Problem is, our aggressiveness with our LBs was limited by the need to drop them into coverage and our DTs were getting no push so their OL could double Chase and Gary. So no pressure on Haskins (there was probably nothing we could do to get pressure), and two of our defensive backs couldn't keep up with their speed. Offense and special teams setting them up for 21 points made the score look far worse. You give me 39 points on the road against them, I take that bet all day long.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
I would include the 9-0-3 season despite the not having win total. It did include a Rose Bowl victory over a good Washington team.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Hell is really going 5-7 and having no fun. The Revenge Tour thing was fun. How the season went from "shit we will be no better than 8-4" rising to the #4 ranked team in the nation ... that was fun.
Running into that OSU buzz-saw from nowhere was shocking and depressing at the same time.
But we are making progress with the program. It is (mostly) fun again. The players gave it their all, but sometimes another team is better that day. OSU was firing on all cylinders and we could not keep up with that offense.
My hot takes:
- 3-star DBs and LBs are not as fast or athletic as 5-star, NFL bound WRs
- Good coaches can expose those miss-matches, but good coaches can't always overcome or hide them
- playing in Columbus sucks
Onward to the bowl game. Time to develop young (and fast) guys like Ambry Thomas for next season and hopefully send the seniors out with a W and 11-2 record. This team worked really hard for its fans and was fun to watch ... and future program development is still worthy of our support. We will some day beat them ... maybe next year when Haskins and all those 5-star WRs get drafted.
November 26th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
5-7 is easy if you're used to it. Ask an Illinois fan how they'd feel about a 5-7 season.
Hell is built by expectations. It's taking a long elevator ride to heaven and merely getting thrown down back to Earth. Any further down is superfluous.
November 26th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
Thanks for this sane take. It was mostly fun to follow Michigan football again. I hope we can get on the elite level where it will be fun because we are beating Ohio State on a regular basis. It really isn't about curses, but coaches and personnel. Michigan let the program go into a long slide and then a fall off a cliff. I don't think Bo should have been allowed to name his own successor. I think Carr, good but not elite, was a lazy hire after Moeller was fired. The athletic directors were also wanting in the years after Canham. Bo was my first and favorite coach of Michigan, but the old practice of promoting the football coach to athletic director was also not helpful to us. Bo didn't stick around that long as AD because it wasn't his true calling. I think we are finally doing it right with Warde Manuel and Harbaugh, two guys with a proven track record who were hired after thorough searches.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
Good information. I found it interesting that we have won the 7th most games over the past 4 years. That's much better than the previous 7 years. Hopefully we continue to improve.
I would add a couple other seasons to the Top list.
1993 - 9-0-3 ("undefeated", tied OSU, won Rose Bowl vs Washington)
1989 - 10-2 (beat OSU, lost Rose Bowl to USC)
That puts 10 on the list. I think the hard part for fans is that 8 of the top 10 seasons were in the 80s and 90s. Last 19 seasons have been tough. A NY6 bowl win over a top opponent would be a nice addition to the list.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
I keep expecting to read "Don Brown named Head Coach at Maryland" some time soon.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
- OR -
to take the Catholic position, this is not Hell, but it’s Purgatory and the one hope we have is that eventually, one day, the effects of that Sin are finally purged, the pain is over, and we finally get to go to heaven.
Need to find a way to get a Plenary Indulgence ASAP.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Or... to take the religion thing a step further (Brian started it!), it's time to downgrade football from its place of idol status.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
I have been pretty good the last couple of years remembering that these are 20 yo kids playing a game and to not get too high about a win, or too low after a loss. But I lost that perspective as the season went along and it looked like Michigan was going to exorcise all of their past demons. Saturday was a nice wake-up call that I won't forget for a very long time.
November 26th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
I prefer your Purgatory explanation.
The Hell analogy is apt for how it seems at the moment -- perpetual torture, with no hope for redemption.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
is this the matrix?
November 26th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
In the Mgoblog version of the Orwell classic 1984, the protagonist sits at a BW3's in Columbus Ohio, contentedly eating the tuesday special jimmys-and-roasted-onion boneless wings when Urban Meyer walks through the door. "Oh oh oh, come join me at this here table, I love you", Brian exclaims. Meyer ignores him completely.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
Why do people call it BW3? Buffalo Wild Wings has 2 Ws.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
It was originally Buffalo Wild Wings & Weck. Beef on weck sandwiches.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
This is not how I am supposed to feel today. This is how my OSU-loving extended family members are supposed to feel.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
As soon as the blocked punt settled into the arms of the OSU player (because of course it did), I politely excused myself from the room where my wife and son (both OSU fans) were also watching the game and spent the rest of the afternoon and early evening in my office doing grad school work.
But, really, what I was doing was trying to figure out a way to adjust my life so that I stopped dreading this game. Before it happens. Every year, living in Columbus, this game week crushes a bit of my soul. Normally, it's the pre-gloating, and knowing that Michigan is probably going to lose. I keep my head down, smile the self-deprecating smile, and listen to the cooler poopers condescendingly try to be nice to me, not realizing that their smug arrogance drips through even more as they gaslight about why Jim Harbaugh really should be fired for not beating them after four seasons.
This year was supposed to be different. In hindsight, the fact that every single Buckeye fan that I know was saying things like, "Well, it looks like this year you guys will finally beat us. I just hope it's not too bad!" was the worst kind of water torture. I had no confidence going in that Michigan would win, but as soon as you say that to a Buckeye fan their response is some patronizing quip about how "Michigan's expectations really have changed" -- whether because they're willfully ignorant about how lucky they've been to have had the coaches they've had, or they've never experienced the fallout of that One Bad Hire and the damage it does to a program for a decade.
So, thankfully (I guess), I didn't see the rest of the bloodletting. I tapped out. And, after three hours of ruminating, that's the only answer I can come up with. The only way that I can think of to mitigate the horrible pit in my stomach all during Game Week here as these douche nuggets tape over all of their M's and high-five while listening to Smashmouth is to treat this Michigan team like Freddy Kruger. If I take back all the energy I give them, they don't exist. They can't hurt me anymore.
I have to stop watching. When I considered the total hours I've spent this season watching Michigan football, and considered how much other stuff with lasting value that I could have been doing instead, it was the only conclusion I could reach. My wife asked, "Well, didn't you enjoy all of the other games?" as if that was comfort. What was the fleeting enjoyment for if it was all a mirage to come crashing down in so clusterfuckian a fashion?
What if, starting with the bowl game, I just stopped watching? What if I just focused on the yearly exceeded expectations of John Beilein's squad instead? If my choice is Groundhog Day Hell or nothingness, I choose nothingness.
-----
Whew. That felt good to get off my chest. I'll see you all for the bowl game, then?
November 26th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
I sincerely wish I could stop watching, but I cannot avert my eyes. This must be what addiction is like.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
First mistake: allowing your son to be raised an OSU fan. Preventing that should be priority 1a as a father (priority 1 being keeping him alive).
November 26th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
Not a mistake. Really, my attempts at winning him over to Michigan were essentially the equivalent of a 3-star RS senior CB trying to cover a 5-star on a drag route. The entirety of my family is full of OSU grads and fans. I am a blue island stuck in the middle of a red ocean of Buck Cherry songs, dudes in capes and cowboy hats shooting me with finger guns, and emails that read like this: "Hey *an! I a* e*ailing you about to*orrow's *eeting".
I tried to pressure the QB. Turns out I couldn't get home.
The trade off is that I get him for the Browns.
...
Aw, fuck.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
You didn't miss anything. But then you knew that.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
FWIW your interactions with the locals in Columbus both pre and post game is EXACTLY what mine have been like up here in Cleveland. I wore my M varsity jacket to the gym on Friday and man much older than me (yes it's true, they are out there) wearing OSU gear head to toe smiled as we passed and said "this is the year I think you're gonna want to wear that on Sunday."
That made me smile cause he was right (I thought). This IS the year I'm gonna want to parade around the neighborhood wearing my Michigan gear so everybody knows exactly where I came from.
Or not.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
You just may be my long lost twin spirit. I also left a house party after the punt block, and spent the rest of the weekend ruminating about how I got myself to where the success of this team was so closely bound to my self-esteem. I am still depressed and consider this the lowest moment in my Michigan fandom ever, even lower than the Horror, with 2006 OSU a close second. At least with the Horror this thing called BPONE didn't yet exist and I still had a full mental arsenal of hope and faith for the excellence and future of the program based upon decades of prior success.
I pondered how after 20 years of bachelorhood, I had a big void of interests to fill upon getting married and how I'd made the fateful decision to reinvest in my Michigan fandom 10 years ago, leading to reading MGoBlog 2-3 time a day, and venturing over to recruiting sites, and getting myself to where I knew the story behind every player, and the story behind every game coach and team. I realized all of this made it all worse.
Back in the 80s I wouldn't know 80% of the players' names due to no internet or recruiting sites. Being a Michigan fan was just light entertainment and fun. I was far more detached.
I walked out of the house party knowing something was wrong with me that I was unable to continue enjoying the company of friends and fraternity brothers I saw very rarely, because that was all outweighed by what amounted to torture in continuing to be in the presence of that game on that screen, with what was happening to players and coaches I had grown to care for from afar.
MGoBlog is my favorite site on the internet, and Michigan football is my favorite passion outside family/work, but the only conclusion I can draw is that my life needs to get out and get some air.
November 26th, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^
The bowl game it is!
[BTW sooner or later we will feel just as frustrated by Michigan Basketball making tournament runs, only to fall short. Any playoff system pretty much ensures that. It's one reason why I thought the old-fashioned no-playoff college bowl argue about it till next September system is in some sense, better]
November 26th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
Michigan is 10-2, ranked in the top 10, and will probably be favored to beat their opponent in either the Rose or Fiesta bowl. The Ohio State game was frustrating, disappointing, embarrassing, and painful. But an 11-2 season with a Rose or Fiesta bowl win would be nothing to sneeze at, and Michigan will go into next year with expectations that are not only exceedingly high, but also obtainable. Don't let the pain you're currently experiencing overshadow the fact that the state of Michigan football is better right now than it has been in a long time.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Agree but--my renewed BPONE doesn't allow me to anticipate any Bowl victory. And more substantially, I'm worried about the morale and willingness to give full effort of a team that pointed everything at the revenge tour and the playoff, and now has nothing to play for.
November 26th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
i have to say, i will be stunned if this team doesn't give it all in whatever bowl game they play. they may lose - indeed, they may come out flat - but i don't think this will be a 'izzo team with a low seed' effort.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Yes, but in a lot of ways this is worst-case scenario for Michigan fans. The program brings on the hottest coach in the game and he turns the program around from what had been a horrible stretch of seasons. They immediately improve and start winning ballgames. But, through bad luck or whatever you want to call it, they drop a few - to Michigan State, ND, Ohio State. Then a pattern emerges - they can't beat their rivals. And now - here they were - with the better team and best chance to beat their rival in years AND play for a conference and national championship. And they didn't just lay an egg- they played the worst game in program history.
I'm beginning to despair now. If they can't beat Ohio State next year I won't know what to do. It's exactly like Brian says - we're paying for unknown sins. We made a Devil's Bargain in the past and this is how we are cruelly punished, existing perpetually in this Twilight Zone. Yay we win 10 games a year but we ALWAYS lose to those motherfuckers in South Bend/E Lansing/Columbus. That sucks and is deeply unsatisfying.
I know Harbaugh brought the program back from failure but why is it so hard (and so much to ask) that he push them over the last hump? Also - the Hoke/RR eras were outliers and shouldn't be how Michigan is judged. I don't think they should be expected to win very national championship either. But, I think the standard for this program should be the peak Lloyd Carr years: win at least one national championship and compete for others, win a few B1Gs, beat State all the time, ND most of the time and Ohio State at least half the time (preferably all the fucking time).
November 26th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
WHO CARES ABOUT SOME SHITTY BOWL
This isn't the 1970s. Ohio State, Big Ten title game, and playoffs are all that matters. JFC
November 26th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
g'bye, then.
jfc, indeed.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
To be honest I don't really care about Michigan's bowl game.
By now we all know how those end. Michigan will play a Georgia or LSU or Washington St. and probably lose.
We all know what would fix matters - Four or five straight years with a top 5 recruiting class finish.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
my personal plan is to just start betting huge amounts of cash on osu until we win. if we lose i get paid if we win, the cost will be worth it
November 26th, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Based on recent data points and the incoming recruiting classes for Urban Meyer, you are going to be a fucking millionaire.
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