so angry he's squattin [Eric Upchurch]

Unverified Voracity Knows Nossing Comment Count

Brian August 13th, 2020 at 12:38 PM

Sponsor note. Richard Hoeg. A lawyer. A podcaster. An explainer of goings-on. A person you can hire in the event you start a new business, or already have one. Here's his logo.

hoeglaw_thumb

Contracts? Incorporation? He's got it covered. The machinations of the video game industry? He's all over it. You can do no better than Richard Hoeg, in these matters.

Should have got this up earlier. Michigan was in a tight battle with Georgia Tech at the top of the EDSBS charity bowl standings for a few days. Now they are… not.

We can claim no credit for this. But we can still push it over the goal line, which is currently about 11k away. This year I've commemorated a very special game, because as a society we are currently Rutgers watching a third string fullback score from 20 yards out.

zap

Donate. It'll feel vaguely good for a brief time. And you will see the full picture of Spencer in overalls.

[After THE JUMP: nobody knows!]

Nobody knows anything. This is not this site's usual exhortation to be skeptical of the leadership of any particular organization. This is merely reality: the Big Ten may have made a mistake. They may have done the right thing. I don't know. You don't know. They don't know. Nobody knows anything.

Bill Connelly on the situation:

In the social sciences, there is a concept called a "wicked problem." It was coined by University of California, Berkeley professor Horst Rittel and describes, in effect, a unique problem that has no right answers. Whatever you choose to solve a wicked problem is a "one-shot operation" that cannot be undone. You don't learn everything about the problem until you try (and probably fail) to solve it. Finding the least wrong solution requires creativity and early dialogue.

Apparently there was no dialogue about the potential of a spring season until approximately three days ago, and that can be put on the Big Ten's leadership, but the fundamental yes/no decision is not one that is clearly right or wrong. This is the equivalent of going for it in some marginal situation. The decision is ambiguous and will be judged entirely on a random one-off result. 

We'll only know in a few months, and even it might be a situation where there's a lot of chaos and a 50/50 coinflip that someone has a major cardiac event during a game doesn't come to fruition. COVID-19 may have already claimed its first healthy young athlete, as 27-year-old former FSU center Michael Ojo collapsed at practice and died soon after "recovering" from coronavirus. 

More medical details. Bruce Feldman has them, with even Pac-12 coaches saying they didn't see a way forward:

Before Monday night’s Zoom call, one Pac-12 coach said he thought his peers and the conference ADs were overwhelmingly in favor of having their teams doing walkthroughs and getting back out on the field, but that all changed in those 90 minutes.

“Whenever you start mentioning the heart, that is a whole different deal,” the coach said. “That got everybody’s attention. When you hear that even people who are asymptomatic can get heart issues, that’s what I think really scared people. It is a novel virus — what do we really know?”

Another Pac-12 coach told The Athletic on Thursday morning, “I don’t think there was any choice when we heard that. It wasn’t fair to the kids. To me, it was a no-brainer.”

Since the coaching fraternity has been publicly furious about canceling games, frequently defying their nominal bosses to make public statements, that's sobering.

Meanwhile an incredible quote from the Big 12 commissioner:

"If we get to the place where our doctors and scientists say, ‘You know what, you guys got two wheels off the tracks and you’re headed for a train wreck,’ we will pivot that day."

Responsible leadership is popping lateral wheelies in a train. College football 2020.

Scott Frost shrinks. Nebraska was outraged at the Big Ten's decision to postpone and/or cancel fall sports, and Desmond Howard is like THAT'S FINE GET OUT WE CAN FIND SOMEONE ELSE TO NEVER BEAT IOWA OR WISCONSIN:

Nebraska is not leaving the Big Ten West, where they do not have to go up against a national power to reach a conference championship game. Nebraska is not leaving the Big Ten, which gives them many many dollars in perpetuity in all years except this one. Nebraska is having a moment and should count to four.

Nebraska has counted to four.

Well done, Nebraska.

Never say Dick Vitale didn't do anything for you. ESPN's screecher in chief may not be good at saying things that are accurate and delivered at a reasonable volume level, but he indirectly helped push Xavier Tillman out the door:

For this, and this alone, we may be grateful.

Gonna save this tweet. Giles Jackson was impactful in limited time last year.

Sacrifice everything for hockey. No football. No students. No leaving the house. Shut everything except Yost down.

No nothin'. I would like to see this hockey team play.

Etc.: Duncan Robinson and Bam Adebayo are extremely effective basketball bros. Nico Collins lands 18th on Todd McShay's early mock draft. The Little Caesar's logo and its dark, hairy past. Cam York likes to fish. Jane explains college football to a Vox audience. Nick Baumgardner and Austin Meek on the fallout. GRIII interviewed by CNN.

Comments

Blue_In_Texas

August 13th, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^

Can anyone explain how Duncan Robinson is so much better in the NBA than he was in college? Never would have thought he'd be Beilein's best NBA player from Michigan. 

Lionsfan

August 13th, 2020 at 1:32 PM ^

Also, landing on a semi-good team (and great organization) helped out immensely.

Duncan spent his first year alternating as a starter in the G-League, and as a bench player for a .500 Heat team with an established head coach.

In contrast, Trey's rookie year was on the 25-57 Jazz, who fired their coach after the season. Stauskas' rookie year? The 29-53 Kings, who went through 3 coaches that season, and was also teammates with noted locker room shit-stirrer DeMarcus Cousins.

And then Moe got caught in the LeBron remodeling of the Lakers roster/front office, and then sent to another dysfunctional team.

Needs

August 13th, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^

The Ringer's NBA restart blog has a piece today arguing that Trey has been (along with Cam Payne) the secret MVP of the bubble. Probably 10-15 degrees too hot a take, given Dame Lillard, but makes the argument that it's not unheard of for point guards to struggle early before finding clear roles in the league in their late 20s. It's the Jonathan Tjarks article that's currently at the top.

 

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/7/30/21348562/nba-restart-tracker

Streetchemist

August 13th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^

He literally had to relearn what was a good shot. College Robinson wouldn’t shoot 50% of the shots he takes currently.  Also echoing what others have said, he had to learn how to move. I bet he studied tape of Korver, Reddick, etc. And finally he joined an incredible organization when it comes to player development. 

bronxblue

August 13th, 2020 at 10:34 PM ^

He was pretty good at UM but he really developed in Miami and, frankly, showed he was a much better shooter on the move than he did at UM.  Some of that was probably due to play limitations and non-optimal use while at UM and part was Robinson's continued maturation as a player.  Hell, the fact he went from an historically bad defender to an average one while at UM was probably an early sign that he was capable of rebuilding his game as necessary.

Erik_in_Dayton

August 13th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^

A quick note on Dick Vitale: I find him grating as an announcer. But I met him once at a dinner, and he was extremely gracious to everyone at the event. So I feel a pull to defend him a bit.

/end of cool story

Michigan Arrogance

August 13th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^

I get that his schtick is 30 years old and he sometimes tries to be an insider when he's often not, but I have no problem with DV. That dude was CBB from 1990-2010 and helped promote the game as much as anyone else. He's a good dude by all accounts since the worst thing you can say about him is that he's a ND fan.

93Grad

August 13th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^

This is the perfect retort to the whackadoos who slam the scientists and experts because they sometimes create models of guidance that turns out to be wrong.  The mouth breathers love to point out that Faucci changed his stance on masks, etc.  That, of course, is a ridiculous reason to not now where masks.  

This is a brand new virus and we learn new information every day.  Just because our knowledge evolves does not mean that the experts' prior analysis was wrong.  We just have more information which provides better data to input into the models.  And even with more data and better models that does not mean anyone knows for certain how this will all evolve.  Responsible leaders have to use the data to weigh risks and make the most informed decision they can with what is known at the time.   

Brhino

August 13th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^

The thing is, time may NOT tell.  The only real way to tell would be to split reality into two different universes, one in which the Big 10 plays and one in which it doesn't, and then meet up later and see which one worked better.

Some other leagues may or may not play and you may or may not be able to extrapolate their experiences (especially if they go really well or really poorly) to how you think the Big 10 season would have gone, but most likely it's all going to be a big muddled grey area that settles no arguments.

 

bronxblue

August 13th, 2020 at 10:43 PM ^

The problem is proving the negative is very difficult.  If you don't have a season and nobody gets sick as a result, you can't prove it was actually any better than letting people play (as has already been argued numerous times by people here and elsewhere who are against the shutdown).  

michgoblue

August 13th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^

Setting aside your inflamatory language (mouth brehters, whackadoos), I agree with your general concept that our knowledge about this disease is constantly evolving, and that the decision making and policy response needs to change with it.  

For example, you note that Fauci initially said no masks, and updated his stance based upon improved information.  This was the right thing to do.  Likewise, we now know after half a year of data certain other things such a how to better treat those suffering respiratory distress in a hospital setting without going directly to intubation (which resulted in death over 80% of the time). 

But, if we are going to update our response, we should do so consistently.  We now know that while everyone faces a fatality risk, the fatality risk to kids is near zero.  Likewise, the fatality rate for otherwise healthy young adults is at or lower than that of the common flu, whereas the risk of death to the elderly, the morbidly obese or those with certain conditions is significantly higher than other common viruses.  We should constantly be looking to evolve our response to this disease in such a way that balances protecting those most at risk while causing the least long-term harm to society in general and to those who are less in need of protection. 

Applied to football, yes having college football has some risks.  But cancelling also has a number of negative consequences.  So many businesses depend on college football; not just the universities, but the vendors, bars and restaurants, stores such as MDen, etc.  Without college football, countless people will face financial ruin (which can lead to increased fatality risk from drugs, alcaholism, depression and even suicide).  Moreover, aside from providing mere entertainment to all of us, college football and sports in general (and other similar aspects of society such as theaters, clubs, etc.) provide a forum for family bonding, community building, and distraction for the problems that so many have in their day to day lives.  Removing something like college football, even for a year, threatens financial ruin for many, the further erosion of society and even mental health impacts on some for whom it is their primary diversion.  On the other side of the ledger, the risk of death to otherwise healthy athletes who are being tested frequently is generally considered to be low.  Certainly no higher than the risk of smashing their heads into each other 50-60 times per game (plus practice) for years.  And, by removing football from their lives, we are actually likely increasing their risk of catching and spreading COVID.  A strong coach such as Harbaugh has the ability to keep his players from going to bars, house parties and generally acting irresponsible.  Without that oversight, so many of these guys are going to do what typical college students do - go out and mix generally and freely.  Rather than keeping these players busy with practice, film, etc., and instilling team rules that mitigation mad decision, we are essentially removing these built-in protections.  

Needs

August 13th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^

While I disagree with some of this, it makes a bunch of good points and is very well stated. One pushback, though...

It seems impossible that games would have actually allowed fans to attend, which means local businesses were going to be hit really hard no matter what happened. It also removes an issue of how local officials should manage the issue of people showing up in town because there's a game, even though they can't attend.

4th phase

August 13th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^

Everyone has long understood the correlation between age, comorbidities, and risk. That isn’t new. If anything, the new information is about the risk of heart related issues and they did take that into account, exactly as you say.

Most of the financial impact has nothing to do with having the season. People aren’t going to flock to college towns this year whether games are played or not, at least not in the usual numbers. People won’t be in the stands so those businesses will suffer regardless. 
 

Also please don’t try to make the argument that people will commit suicide if there is no season. it’s bullshit and you don’t really care about mental health, you’re just throwing shit at the wall trying to get some sympathy points behind your argument.

 

the risk of death to otherwise healthy athletes who are being tested frequently is generally considered to be low.  Certainly no higher than the risk of smashing their heads into each other 50-60 times per game (plus practice) for years.

People keep saying things like this without any data to back it up. Is it certain? How many players have died due to college football injuries in the last 10 years? What’s that percentage? Im not convinced that one is more high risk than the other, both are pretty low.


Also the bars aren’t going to be packed because they can’t be. House parties maybe, but basically you’re saying the only thing separating these players from being responsible and being out of control is football. And I’m not sure that’s true. MLB and NBA players have made bad decisions even with games on the schedule. And college kids can be responsible whether or not they have practice the next day.

michgoblue

August 13th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^

Let me respond to a few of your points:

1.  While everyone has long understood the correlation between age, comorbidities, etc. and risk, public policy hasn't shifted much to take that into account.  Rather than closing kids out of schools, we should be sending kids back, allowing youth sports, bands, plays, etc. and much better protecting nursing homes, hospitals, senior living and those with conditions.  Meaning, that while schools should open (they are certainly as essential as liquor stores), teachers who are older or at risk may have to sit out the year.  

2. You take for granted that stadiums will not be able to have fans.  Why?  Given the evolving understanding of risk, the fact that this disease's mortality rate is not nearly what we thought, and the risk assessment that we can now make, why do you take it as a given that young, healthy fans cannot be in the stands?  Moreover, not all of the economic harm that I mentioned has to do with fans in the stands:  TV makes up the bulk of the revenue, and those involved with the TV production of the games are all about to lose their jobs (Desmond and Kirk may be fine, but all of the staff of GameDay are about to be laid off).  There are hundreds of non-stadium job categories impacted by this decision.

3.  To your point about suicide, no, I don't think that anyone is going to say "fuck, they cancelled football, I'm going to kill myself."  But, there are so many during this time that are experiencing severe depression or balancing on the edge.  For so many, something as trivial as college football or baseball or theater or museums is a real distraction and something that gives them happiness to balance the depression.  We've taken away most of what people enjoy in the name of COVID.  For some on the edge, the loss of these distractions will certainly lead to increases in mental problems and possibly suicide.  

4.  Your comparison of NBA players making bad choices and defying rules to college kids is inapt.  If an NBA coach tells an NBA star making $15 million a year not to do something, and the star doesn't listen, what's the real consequence?  Is the coach really going to sit the player for a game?  And if he does, does the player really case?  For all but the top 5 players on a college team (maybe top 25 at OSU), violating a coach's edict, especially about something as serious as COVID, could lead to severe consequences that can impact their ability to get drafted or even play.  Yes, having a strong program set rules for these young kids to live by will absolutely keep them from engaging in some of the riskier behavior that so many college-age kids are engaging in.  

On a final note, my premise was to follow the rapidly evolving science.  We all take for granted that strict lockdown measures make a difference in terms of bringing down COVID.  As evidence, most people point to NY because NY cases surged, Gov. Cuomo instituted strict lockdowns, and the numbers have come down significantly.  During the recent surge, many contrasted NY with Florida and Arizona because the latter two did not institute nearly the lockdown / distancing measures.  Sure, NY got hit first, but if you look at NY's curve from when the surge started, then plateaued, and then fell, and now compare that curve to the curves of Florida and Arizona, you can see almost the same shape and the same trajectory on the way down in Florida and Arizona that NY experienced, although with far less draconian lockdowns and loss of society.  Maybe what we have taken as a given - that we can't have such things as football, parties, etc. - isn't such a given?  Maybe the virus is going to do what it is going to do regardless (because even the most locked down person still has to leave the house to eat, exercise, breath fresh air and pick up supplies).  The curves can be found here - toggle the various states if you want to compare how COVID looks in each.  If you want to really start questioning lockdowns, toggle to Hawaii, which has amongst the strictest lockdowns and still won't allow tourists on the island state.  They are currently experiencing the steepest upward curve.   https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+covid+stats&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS858US858&oq=arizona+covid+stats&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3655j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

 

4th phase

August 14th, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^

1. We are talking about college football, which I think the presidents did take new information into account. You've expanded the conversation to everything, which is a more complicated discussion.

2. The stadiums wont be at full capacity and probably not more than 25%. I take that for granted because that is how sports are currently being played. It would be crazy to go from 0 to 100% on this. Even if we did have fans, it would be a very slow and methodical ramp up. And you were talking about local businesses, but now you've shifted to the TV networks. The point is that local businesses will still struggle. 

3. I don't like it when people use mental health issues as a tool to support their cause. I find it really disingenuous. If you aren't personally suffering from a lack of football or you aren't a mental health professional dealing with people who are suffering from a lack of football, then its all conjecture.  You say its "certain" that loss of football will lead to increase in mental health problems. That isn't certain. Don't weaponize other people's very real issues to fit your narritive.

4. Again, you act as if the only thing keeping college students in line is football. They can act responsibly without games on the schedule. A comment below explains it better than me. 

 

They are following new science, with the heart info. Also the idea behind lockdowns and socially distancing are just common sense. Its harder to transmit the disease when you aren't gathering into huge groups. Not to mention every expert agrees with that. So what "new science" have you seen that says gathering in huge crowds, or close contact during physical exertion won't spread the disease?

michgoblue

August 14th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^

1. What new information did the presidents take into account?  Before you say “long term effects of Covid,” note that there are zero studies of long term effects because Covid has only been around for a few months. We have no idea if there are long terms effects and won’t until months are years from now. As of now that is just conjecture and speculation, at best. 
 

2. I disagree that open air stadiums cannot be at full capacity. Just because “that is how sports are currently being played.”  We have crowded beaches, crowded parks, massive protests in close proximity and people gathering indoors and outdoors regularly. What is the magic of outdoor stadiums that makes these gatherings worse. Before you say “ 100,000 people in the same space risks a super spreader event,” it’s not like if I go to the stadium with Covid I infect 100,000 people any more than I would infect an entire beach. At most I expose the few people around me in my section and on line at the concession. And again, masks and outside mitigate that. Further, 25% capacity for the big house could be the difference between survival and failure for a number of businesses. 
 

3. On the mental health issue, sorry if you “don't like it when people use mental health issues as a tool to support their cause” but here, the “mental health issue” does support what I am saying. No, I am not saying that anybody is going to jump off of a bridge because football is cancelled. What I am saying is that experts seem to universally accept that mental health is being impacted by the pandemic, lockdowns and general changes in society. There are significant spikes in depression, anxiety, drug and alcohol abuse and, yes, suicide. Football, like many other aspects of society, provides many people with a distraction from what is going on. For lost on the edge, no, the cancellation of football alone is not going to make a difference. But, football is just one of many aspects of life being dramatically altered. Combine the loss of sports with the inability to go to a show, the inability to go to a bar, the inability to have a large gathering, the closure of schools and the loss of general mingling, and yes, this can lead to increased suicide. This concern has been expressed by countless mental health professionals. 

4. Of course college students can act responsible without football. But, largely, they aren’t. Do you not agree that having a strong coaching staff and rules in place that exceed those to which other college students are subjected (with consequences above those to which other students are subjected) could help keep more kids from engaging in stupid behavior?

Finally, you make the following point:   “Also the idea behind lockdowns and socially distancing are just common sense. Its harder to transmit the disease when you aren't gathering into huge groups. Not to mention every expert agrees with that. So what "new science" have you seen that says gathering in huge crowds, or close contact during physical exertion won't spread the disease?”  
 

The new science that I am seeing is the curve in Florida, the Carolinas and Arizona. All of those states have been taken to task by the lockdown proponents for not doing enough distancing, masks and shutdowns. Yet their curves seem to be coming down in almost the same manner as NY, Michigan and NJ, which locked down more than many other states. Meanwhile, California - another lockdown proponent - is experiencing continued surges in cases.  Finally, take a look at Hawaii - they are amongst the most locked down of states. Look at their current curve. They are experiencing  the most steep increase in new cases in the entire country. Almost seems like the lockdowns aren’t all that effective. Maybe more people should question the lockdowns being shoved down our throats and destroying society and businesses by the day.  Can you explain these curves otherwise?  

itauditbill

August 14th, 2020 at 5:56 AM ^

So well written points. Some counter-points to those points:

Fatality risk is near zero. It is a very low number, I hate using a statement like near zero, as your near and my near might not be the same near. However, we can both agree that the chances of dying is lower if you are younger and our treatment to stop death has improved. However, what worries me and seems to worry others is the long term, unknown impacts of Covid 19. The ultra-marathoner who can't run more than 2 miles now for example. (https://tinyurl.com/y5h7wbfp) There are definite impacts to getting it. As a runner myself that worries me. I would think that any athlete would be concerned about that.

There are steps we can take to mitigate the financial impacts. They are tough but they are there. What is the value of human life when by simple action we can keep that life safe? The mental health impacts are horrible either side. While you note the impact of losing a job, what is the mental health impact of losing a loved one, or in the case of the long haulers as noted above losing your physical and/or mental ability? To take it too far, what is the mental health impact of dying?

Finally what I think is your worst argument. These young people can't possibly be safe unless they are in a super structured environment? Um, okay, me thinks that perhaps they should join the military where they can get the kind of supervision they need. I'm sorry, but there are significant proportions of the student body who are able to act in a disciplined way. If these young people are so unable to do this without the structure of football, or basketball, perhaps a broader discussion of how we have failed them as a society and what steps we can take to a) remediate the current generations issues and b) fix the young ones that are coming up needs to be had. If, as you say, the "typical" college student will be going to parties and acting unsafe, then we need to shut down college as well. And all of the businesses in the college towns will fail even faster.

LKLIII

August 13th, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^

This is what I don't get.....

If this new information about the heart inflamation is so dangerous to people who get the disease, then why are all of these ADs allowing the football teams to practice 20 hours per week? Furthermore, why aren't all these university presidents scrambling to 100% shut down their campuses to ensure that their students don't create superspreader events in the dorms, apartments, house parties, restaurants, coffee shops, libraries, and bars around campus?

When viewed with the "big picture" in mind, playing football against another school is a *TINY* fraction of the potential COVID spreading events that are likely to take place once tens of thousands of students come back to these college campus enviornments for a fall semester. Even if the classes themselves are 100% on-line, that doesn't prevent kids from interacting in the dorms, laundry mats, grocery stores, cafeterias, campus study halls & libraries, etc.

So, if this was a major safety concerns for younger people, shouldn't we be seeing major efforts to cancel the thousands of would-be super-spreader events taking place among a campus of tens of thousands of regular students too?

Otherwise, it seems like they're focusing on this small aspect of COVID spread while basically ignorning the sheer volume of interactions that in aggregate seem to represent a MUCH larger threat to the health and welfare of students.

WindyCityBlue

August 13th, 2020 at 2:17 PM ^

General question.  Where did the whole 'mouth breather' comment become such a bad thing.  I mean, I breathe through my mouth (and my nose too).  In fact, if I didn't breathe through my mouth, I would likely die.  So I guess I'm a mouth breather?

It's kinda like saying "those anus excrementors!"

MGoStrength

August 13th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^

This is merely reality: the Big Ten may have made a mistake. They may have done the right thing. I don't know. You don't know. They don't know. Nobody knows anything.

Bingo.  You're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't.  While I think the B1G could have waited, explored more options, and generally handled this better, I have absolutely no problem with cancelling fall sports.  Sometimes you have to make people unhappy in order to do the right thing for them.  My dog just had to go under general anesthesia to have a tooth removed that he cracked a week earlier and now he wines at me for his chew toys.  I'm sure he's pissed I won't let him chew on his toys with his surgically repaired mouth, but you know what...it's in his own best interests.  He can be pissed.  We'll both be happy in a few weeks when he's healthy and back to normal.

crg

August 13th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^

Who would've thought that southern teams from 100% revenue focused conferences would ever risk player safety in pursuit of that revenue?

A Fun Guy

August 13th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^

Tillman will be one of the few ex-MSU players that I could actively root for in the league. Seems like a genuinely good person and he's earned his way to this spot. Couldn't be happier that he escaped the Green Goblin.