This Week’s Obsession: Most Desired Breakout Player
You break out or I will. [Bryan Fuller]
The Question:
You get a magic wand to anoint any Michigan player an instant all-Big Ten, except an offensive tackle else we'd all just be naming backup OTs.
Brian: This might be dumb.
Ace: We’re all gonna go with CBs, right?
Brian: I'm going with Quinn Nordin?
Ace: Never mind.
The Responses:
Brian: I mean, #collegekickers, right? And if Nordin can hit them straight you've got four years of NFL range and accuracy plus kickoff returns that amount to "lol no".
Is that crazy?
Adam: I was going with Ron Johnson because please someone anyone D-line depth. and it'd be nice to have a guy that can play SDE and 3T.
Brian: I feel Ron Johnson is an invalid selection since to be All Big Ten you have to have some opportunity to play and TBH he does not.
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| An instantly playable James Hudson could give Michigan a solid two-deep at DL. |
Adam: But who are the backups?
Brian: Dwumfour and Solomon.
Ace: In terms of value added over another position on the roster, Nordin isn’t crazy. Dropoff from his ceiling to the backups is bigger than most any other spot on the roster.
Brian: Yeah, I mean it would be nice if Devin Bush was ABT but I'm not stressed if he isn't.
Adam: I'm going more for the principle than a specific player but I really haven no idea who the backup 3T will be. Marshall? Hudson? DIB?
Ace: I’d guess Hudson. He’s outrageously strong.
David: Maybe Gary if they can find snaps for a freshman at anchor?
Ace: Gary might slide inside on some obvious passing downs but he’d be better utilized on the edge. I think that’s a last resort that won’t be needed.
Seth: Kemp is the backup at anchor. Of all the backup DL that’s the spot I’m least worried about.
[Hit THE JUMP for more of us ignoring the offense because you really cut our legs out with this tackle rule.]
David: I guess I have two (two!) thoughts in this vein. First, Pick a CB. It seems that M has 3 potentially nice options at safety...although one could slide down to VIPER. They can also potentially live with 2 of McCray/Robo/Bush at LB. They also have a great class of freshman LBs coming in. The DL looks like it will still be very good...with maybe a slight bit of depth once the Fall rolls around? While there are many different options at corner -with high ceilings- it is still very much an unknown and we have yet to see any of those options take meaningful snaps. If Long/Hill/Washington/freshman were to be an instant success, this defense could be very, very good again.
What if Drake Harris hit his potential?? All of a sudden this offense could explode! You have a tall burner who can take the top off the defense. This would ease the load of the rest of the younger guys and allow them to find their niches. Obviously, the OL will need to give Wilton Peters time, but an All B10 home run threat would add a dimension to this offense that we haven't seen since probably 2011.
Ace: I’m taking David Long. Aside from offensive tackle, cornerback is the biggest question mark in the lineup. We’ve seen some flashes from Lavert Hill, enough so that there’s reason to be optimistic he’ll be at least a passable starter. They need another, obviously. We haven’t really had the chance to see Long play, to the point that it’s mildly concerning, but he’s got a ton of talent. Living up to that potential early would address one of the biggest concerns on the entire team and give this defense a chance to be as good as last year’s.
Adam: David and Ace took the corners, Brian covered special teams, and I'm not at all concerned about the safeties or LBs/VIPER, so I'm sticking with backup 3T. I'll borrow from Ace and go with James Hudson. NT is in fine shape with Mone and Solomon and, if he rekindles the hype from before he was injured, Dwumfour. At SDE you have Gary and Kemp, and I expect Kemp will be a serviceable backup this year. That leaves WDE and 3T as the perilously thin spots. I think you could make cases for Luiji Vilain or James Hudson; I'm going with Hudson because it'd be real nice to have someone to spell Michigan's best defensive player.
For the lols [Bryan Fuller]
Seth: James Hudson is a good value pick but I'm going totally selfish with this one and taking Josh Uche as a stand-up OLB/DE tweener. Reasons:
- Guy most people weren't talking about in preseason to All-B1G would necessarily mean tons of TFLs, which would be hella fun to watch.
- Young enough and not-built-for-NFL enough that we'd probably get to keep him a long time.
- WDE depth right now is "um, can Vilain play?" while the roster sets up well for Brown's 3-3-5 sets.
- Wheee tiny blitzball edge weapons. I've been wanting one of these in our defense ever since Michigan State was wracking up 17 TFLs with tiny Denicos Allen.
- Die in a fire, Urban Meyer offenses.
- Don Brown hybrid edge weapon gives me a year's worth of Neck Sharpies material.
Ace: Last year may have set our expectations for D-line depth unreasonably high. Vilain was edging towards five-star status by the end of the recruiting cycle. He’s probably going to be a plug-and-play guy who’s more than serviceable as a backup on a line where he’ll be surrounded by top-end talent.
That said, I’d still love to see Uche break out. He could be a lot of fun.
Seth: Right? Like envision all those runs where J.T. Barrett gets isolated with a DE and slinks through the crack for 6 yards, except instead he's constantly getting brought down in the backfield then jumping up all like "Who the hell got me?"
QB is arguably the most important position on the team, or at the very least the offense. Michigan could have gone undefeated if his good 2016 season were kicked up a notch to "All B1G". By extension, in order to have an all-B1G season, our O-Line would be very good as well so this choice effectively fixes two position groups.
I'm assuming that means first team all Big Ten? Wilton was 3rd team last year.
If Chris Evans had an all B1G year, it would imply all's well on the OL. It would also suggest that our passing game is good, b/c otherwise opposing Ds would be focused on Evans.
Speight or Evans. You and Late Bluemer above nailed it. Success by either of those guys means the offensive line figured it out.
I trust Don Brown will make defense happen.
Sp2^3
Not completley true. He could turn into Barry Sanders clone and not need a competent offensive line or a good passing game to be great. /s
we're so inept at pass-pro that we have to run on 1st and 2nd downs and end up racking up some decent counting stats for the RBs (which, let's be honest, that's mostly what ABT voters base RB voting on), and also makes them seem more "important" as they'd get a higher percentage of the team's yards. Justin Jackson was first team last year and NW was awful at passing, and amazingly, also terrible at rushing, too. So no, that position is not indicative of team performance, like OL voting tends to be.
For the purposes of this discussion, I think Kugler has to be the answer here because that implies our ground game AND passing game are likely to have been successful. C voting very often is a reward for the entire OL.
Ian Bunting. We need to replace Butt and it would be huge if ol skillet hands turned out to be a dominant force in the post.
Suppose he found a way to block as well (with his OT body) as he can catch the ball, and added consistency. Rob Gronkowski anyone?
Asiasi was the best blocking TE last year, by a mile. But he's not here this year, so maybe Jr will look like he picked it up some?
I'll say David Long as well, lock down corners are critical to team success and winning the big games. Shuts down half the field and gives the DL a little extra time to disrupt the backfield.
I can't believe Brian did not pick Khaleke! In Don Brown's defense he could be that breakout ABT player.
at least from Brian's perspective, that the expectation for Hudson might already be ABT
I was thinking the same thing. The faithful all know about Khaleke, but he is still basically unknown to the outside world. He got some run at safety and special teams in 2016, but now he's basically Peppers.
An All-Big Ten QB puts the team in the Big Ten title hunt. All the other positions (outside of tackle and kicker) would improve our chances, but QB would have an out-weighted impact because they have the most control of how the team does.
I too am hoping not to be eaten.
Higdon is my answer. I like his game as a ground it out runner with quickness. I'm expecting special things from him as well as Evans, but Higdon strikes me as the more "Harbaughfense" RB.
If Hill already looks like he's panning out, then having another young CB who looks to be delivering on a large amount of potential would be great.
If he is an all B1G center this year, then that means he would be an anchor for a very good OL and his calls would be spot on all year. You make that happen and get the OL playing as a strong cohesive unit the rest of the offense takes off. Our defense should be very good so that would spell a very successful season.
this long in the post or thread for Kugler to come up. Seems like the biggest ?'s on the team are at C and RT. How this discussion doesn't start and end with Kugler (since RT is a given and ineligible per the rules) doesn't make sense to me. Unless people are answering it more as which guy they'd personally like to see do well because it would be fun if said guy was good rather than which position would benefit the team the most by going from current expectations to ABT with a wave a wand.
Nordin isn't valid in this discussion because I don't think he'd be an unexpected ABT: the wave of the wand might not even do much if anything for him. The baseline expectation for him is that he should be really good. Besides it's not a high enough leverage position. He might be ABT without a wave of the wand for all we know.
We know that Kugler hasn't been good enough to crack the starting lineup in four years, even when we had tackle issues last year but kept Cole at C. The wave of the wand for him could be huge.
Honorable mention: one of the QBs. Highest leverage position on the field. It would be very nice to have the best/most productive QB in the conference and it would mean JT Barrett and/or McSorley didn't win it, which would be a good indicator that we beat one or both of them.
IDK, kickers that can hit from a great distance can absolutely demoralize another team. When 3 good stops in a row still becomes 9 points, well that hurts. I mean, I'd rather not get stopped 3 times, but a good kicker can be a terrifyingly effective weapon.
Evans or Isaac. Been a long time since we had an elite runner in Ann Arbor.
Since we can't pick an OL this seems like the obvious choice to me. It's the most important position and a good one will make our RB and WR and TE talent flourish. I'm also not optimistic about Speight and would go with Peters over him (plus he's younger).
just because it would be great to have a walk on make All B1G
Give me the RT.
If he's playing at ABT level, the offensive line is going to be steam-rolling people. We know what Cole can do. A Fr->Soph leap is expected from Bredeson. One of Kugler/Ruiz will handle the center spot. Since I can't take RT, I'm taking Onwenu. Plus, how fun would it be to see a ~360 pound ABT guard destroying folks on the line?
Finally WDE gets some mention as a weakness worth getting nervous about! Here's why Vilain or Uche also gets my vote:
- SDE - Gary will play a lot, Kemp is a backup
- NT - Mone has Soloman and Dwumfor as potential backups
- DT - This is a position where you can use a variety of guys depending on the situation
- CB - I agree with Ace that we need someone to step up, but there are six guys that are competing for two spots. Brown will find the 2-3 he needs.
- S/Viper - We have four guys for three spots, plus some SAM types at Viper
If you look at WDE it is a guy we like who played about 20% of snaps last year and has historically been considered very undersized and then nothing. Typically WDE isn't a position that you want to see true freshmen play either because offenses love to play with their minds with read options and play action. It is also a position where you'd really like to have a specialist available to rotate with the starter.
On third and long you'd like to see Hurst/Gary slide one spot over and put another pass rusher on the edge opposite Winovich.....who is that???
If any starting DL gets hurt you know who plugs into their spot (even if a huge dropoff in talent) except for Winovich.
QB or RB....it will take all of the problems on that side of the ball away.
if that fella can stay healthy and clog that middle at a consistent level. Then coach Brown's blitzkrieg will be unleashed. Excites me to see opponents in long third down stress.
Wilton is going to throw a lot better, oh about twice as good a long ball as he did last season. I want to see someone clear, i.e., Darboh vs. WI in stride, ready to gallop across the goal line.
Give me Kugler as an all-conference center, and a lot of other things will take care of themselves.
He competed so hard during the spring game. There is a ABT player in there, I hope it comes out this year.
I'm going with Michael Onwenu only because he is a giant and I want to see that giant do well. I hear giants like pancakes and I would like to see Onwenu make many pancakes for himself.
Even with the no OT rule, I don't understand why so few picked OL. The prospects on the interior are more of a known quantity than RT, but they are still far from proven. If Kugler, Braden, Onwenu or Ruiz makes all conference, that's a huge win for the OL. Right now, it's hard to say any OL will make all conference. Knowing at least one will would be great.
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