Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

I'm dumping the chart from this section because I was squinting at it and couldn't figure out if it said anything meaningful. Revamp.

FUMBLES. Michigan fumbled 15 times last year, losing four. That's fortunate; studies have generally shown that there is no repeatability to fumble recoveries and everyone regresses to 50%. The main culprit here was McCarthy, who was charged with nine; Corum had one, Stokes had one, Edwards had two, and Ronnie Bell had two. QB fumbles are often a combination of youth and bad pass protection, so hopefully Michigan will be able to reduce the raw numbers here; otherwise turnovers should scoot up.

OPPONENT FUMBLES. Michigan only forced two last year, a major dropoff from the 11 they forced in 2021. Seven of those came from the DE, so the recipe here is clear: get to the QB. PFF does not chart "oops" fumbles so I'm not 100% sure how many times opponents put the ball on the turf themselves last year; Michigan only recovered four on the season so they can't backslide any further here.

INTERCEPTIONS. Opponents converted 13 turnover-worthy passes from McCarthy into six interceptions. If pass pro remains steady McCarthy should drop that number of potential INTs.

OPPONENT INTERCEPTIONS. Michigan improved from 2021, when they had a 50% conversion rate on interception opportunities (8/16). Last year they were 14/19, with Will Johnson and Rod Moore leading the way. Their ratio of PBUs to interception opportunities also went up a bit. With Moore back and Johnson emerging into a full-time starter this should remain relatively high, especially if Michigan cranks its pass rush back up. Their 14 INTs were tied for fifth in the Big Ten.

UPSHOT. Michigan was third in TO margin last year in the league with a +8; they were fortunate not to lose two or three more fumbles and should have finished in the middle of the pack. Baseline expectations should be improvement since McCarthy was the source of most fumbles and (obviously) all interceptions; he moves from a true sophomore to a junior and will be more responsible.

Meanwhile Michigan's pass rush should be more consistent in big games and it has a couple of real ballhawks in the secondary. They should at least tread water; improvement is likely. (Insofar as anything is likely with such a high randomness thing.)

Position Switches

finally [Fuller]

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. Flipping sides of the ball is very bad. Sliding an OT to OG is probably fine. Sliding an OG to OT… might be bad. Flipping ILB slots is nothing.

Nothing of note.

OG LaDarius Henderson to LT. Not concerning because if he plays he'll have beaten out an actual tackle.

LB Kalel Mullings to RB. Hooray linebacker depth.

OL Reece Atteberry and Alessandro Lorenzetti to DT. Might say bad things about DTs past the top four but not a concern for this season. Outrageous OL depth means that taking a look at a couple of guys who might not be on the two deep (Lorenzetti isn't; Atteberry could have gotten pushed out by Raheem Anderson or Andrew Gentry) is low cost.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios: 9-3, with losses against Penn State and Ohio State and then one of those games where you fumble six times and the Baba Yaga curses you.

Best Case: 12-0. I mean.

Final Verdict

This may be the worst schedule I've ever perceived. There is no one in the nonconference, the crossover games are year zero Nebraska, year zero Purdue, and a Minnesota team that just lost its entire identity. Rutgers and Indiana look like exceptionally putrid versions of themselves. Michigan State hasn't defended the pass in two years, lost its starting quarterback and only good skill player to the portal, and is going to try to cover Donovan Edwards with the same two dump truck MLBs they were playing last year.

Penn State, Maryland, and OSU is a closing gauntlet. But if Michigan isn't 9-0 entering those games it'll be an upset. How many of those spreads are going to be 14+? 21+?

Conference
9/2	ECU	Must win
9/9	UNLV	Must win
9/16	BGSU	Must win
9/23	Rutgers	Must win
9/30	@ Nebraska	Must win
10/7	@ Minnesota	Must win
10/14	Indiana	Must win
10/21	@ MSU	Must win
11/4	Purdue	Must win
11/11	@ Penn State	Likely win
11/19	@ Maryland	Likely win
11/26	OSU	Tossup
Absent:	Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

12-0. Yes, fans of multiplying percentages together, 11-1 is probably the most likely outcome. Don't care. Hit dingers.