Essentials

WHAT	#2 Michigan (12-0) vs #18 Iowa(10-2)
WHERE	Sharon's Heating and Cooling Stadium Indianapolis, IN
WHEN	8:17 Saturday
THE LINE	M –21.5 (Vegas) M –23 (Bill C)
TELEVISION	FOX PBP: Gus Johnson Color: Joel Klatt
TICKETS	from $60
WEATHER	no

Overview

Well, it's Iowa again. Except this time they're the Most Iowa. They are not content with being regular Iowa, a very good defensive team with a plodding offense. No. They're going to get their starting quarterback injured. And then they're going to get their top two tight ends injured. They're going to have the #1 defense in America, per SP+, and the #124 offense. And they're going to win ten games by exactly three points each when they get a punt return touchdown with four seconds left on the clock.

This game will either be a slow-motion blowout, a la Penn State, or a deeply annoying meatgrinder that terrifies you to within an inch of your life. Probably the former.

[AFTER THE JUMP: "no"]

Run Offense vs Iowa

[Barron]

Last year Michigan had a relatively easy time of it here as Iowa was content to sit back in their cover two and eat duo after duo. Michigan glided down the field for a 75-yard TD on their first drive. Last year's UFR:

Those drives were just so smooth, man.

This was partially a Hawkeye thing. I've charted Iowa games before but I don't recall this level of passivity from the Hawkeyes. With limited exceptions, Iowa sat in bend-but-don't-break until the score was 20-0. Michigan runs were a little weird to chart because I often hand out RPS+1 when you've got a hat for a hat for everyone in the box… but this wasn't exactly schemed, most of the time. Sometimes Michigan motion/outside threats even gave them situations where they were +1, without even involving the QB. Here the Iowa MLB gets held by the threat of Bell until Corum is burrowing into the sticks next to him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BVJrcOzBqk

They did not deviate from this until it was 20-0 and desperation kicked in. Corum and Edwards combined for 34 carries and 162 yards, 4.8 per. Normally you'd expect a defensive coordinator who endured that one year to come into the next game with a different gameplan, but this is Iowa, so… maybe, maybe not.

I do think it's likely the Hawkeyes get more aggressive after they dared Michigan to not beat themselves a year ago and Michigan was like "ok." This version of Michigan is the least penalized team in America and has only lost seven turnovers in 12 games. Sitting back and waiting for Michigan to go Big Ten West on them isn't going to work, and three field goals might be enough for Michigan. They might as well get after it; they've got nothing to lose.

Despite the absence of Zak Zinter it doesn't seem like this version of Iowa is more likely than last year's to win a straight-up battle. Alex likes one DT…

…this year's tackle group is better than last year's but still not a strength per se. I like Logan Lee, who showed good burst/explosion to swim in the backfield and gum up the run. He gets a star, but the other players are merely solid to good. Yahya Black might be the weakest starter on the defense, while Ethan Hurkett rotates in. I like Hurkett more as a pass rusher but had some vulnerabilities against the run, while Black profiles on PFF as the reverse.

…but this is not enough DTs to like. PFF loves every single player in the front seven against the run except edge Joe Evans, who is merely decent to them. But as Alex mentions, the Ain't Played Nobody here is huge:

Iowa saw the following offenses by ranking in SP+: 49, 70, 111, 26, 120, 87, 89, 106, 105, 98, 88, 121.

That #26? Penn State, which built that ranking on blowing out very bad teams and completely failing to move the ball against Michigan and OSU. PSU ground out 397 yards over the course of a slow-motion blowout. There's a fair chance that Michigan just overwhelms the Iowa defense physically and never has to get out of second gear, like last year. There is also a chance that Phil Parker reads the room and gets to blitzing his ass off. This did work last year. Iowa picked up a couple of three-and-outs in the fourth quarter by holding four different Corum runs to two yards or fewer. (Then Corum scored a 20-yard TD on which Jack Campbell didn't lay a finger on him.) If Iowa gets aggressive from the jump, Michigan will have to put the ball in the air, risking the one thing that can turn this game in Iowa's favor: interceptions.

KEY MATCHUP: SEBASTIAN CASTRO vs TIGHT ENDS AND WHOEVER ELSE. Castro is Iowa's fine nickel; he does not come off the field. He is 205 pounds, though, and may be called into duty against AJ Barner.

Pass Offense vs Iowa

[Barron]

Iowa's secondary was a legitimately awesome unit before star CB Cooper DeJean went out. It is still mostly awesome, with three guys who garnered stars in Alex's charting and are grading out at 80+ on PFF. Those guys are the nickelback, Sebastian Castro, and the two safeties. Sophomore Xavier Nwankpa had an understudy role and is now an Iowa safety, except 247 had him as the #25 player in the country when he was a recruit. By the time he's a senior he'll break the PFF grading scale. Quinn Schulte returns from last year's team and is your average veteran non-five-star Iowa safety.

Iowa also has a safety-ish linebacker, Jay Higgins, who is grading out spectacularly well to PFF. One caveat: his average depth of target is two yards downfield. That looks like a bunch of screens and not a whole lot of carrying good tight ends down the seam. I'm sure he's gotten a ton of practice doing that since he is at Iowa, the land of tight ends.

With DeJean out, Iowa's corners are merely solid players, not stars.

Iowa is going to Iowa, so expect a bunch of cover two with changeups mixed in to prevent McCarthy from getting too comfortable with any particular look. I'm not sure it'll matter much. Last year Iowa had a secondary approximately as good as this one and Lukas Van Ness, a rotational DE who ended up going in the first round of the NFL draft. McCarthy calmly dinked and dunked his way to an 18/24, 155 yard day. That's just 6.5 yards an attempt, but there were no turnovers and just one pass charted as turnover-worthy by PFF.

This year Iowa's pass rush is fairly anemic. the aforementioned Joe Evans is Iowa's only lineman with a double-digit win rate at PFF; his 12% isn't bad but neither is it outstanding. Almost half of their 23 sacks on the season came against Purdue and Northwestern, with three more coming against Nebraska last week. These are very bad pass pro lines, though Purdue's season grade is propped up by the tackles who got injured midseason.

McCarthy has been good at reading zones for most of the year and it doesn't seem like either corner is particularly likely to keep up with Roman Wilson on the snaps where Iowa runs man. Given his year, and this game last year, I'd expect him to be a sidelight but an efficient one. The spectre of an Off Game does loom. This would be the worst team to have a Maryland/BGSU game against.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs WELL YOU KNOW THROWIN' PICKS. Short of an avalanche of fumbles that's the way M loses.

Run Defense vs Iowa

[Barron]

This preview series has flirted with posting a mere "no" over the course of the year as Michigan ran up against various offenses deeply unlikely to do a dang thing. It always diverts from such an entirely dismissive approach for bad juju reasons, preferring instead an almost entirely dismissive approach. This is difficult to do with Iowa.

Anyone who's seen an Iowa game in the last ten years knows what's in store: a lot of under-center plays featuring zone blocking, with the occasional gap-blocked counter. Leshon Williams, Iowa's main back, is averaging 5 yards a carry but the distribution of those yards is extreme. He has rushes of 82, 53, and 53 yards this year; that'll distort your average. Iowa's adjusted line yards are as abominable as the rest of the offense:

Iowa is in fact the worst team in America in this metric. I very badly want to "no" this after Michigan stuck six guys in the box and held TreVeyon Henderson to three yards a carry last week.

One thing that does give a bit of pause is that Iowa is a team that runs a fair bit of zone stretch, which has given Michigan issues this year. However, the circumstances in which it was working were relatively narrow, and if Michigan is having troubles with frontside doubles on stretch they can drop a safety into the box. It'll be fine. Ohio State is in the rear view mirror; Michigan can be +1 in the box, as a treat.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs 50+ YARD RUNS. Inadvisable to give them up.

Pass Defense vs Iowa

let's be real [Barron]

No.

…

No, seriously, this time it's just "no."

…

FINE

It was amazing how the Iowa virus infected Cade McNamara, who seemed like a perfectly reasonable quarterback at Michigan, right off the bat. McNamara went out early in the Michigan State game and got crushed against Penn State. Let's ignore those games. McNamara's collective performance against Utah State (The #129 D in SP+), Iowa State(#18), and WMU (#106): 53% completion rate, 5.9 YPA. The good(?) thing is that those performances were opponent-invariant. The YPA against ISU was 5.6, which was more or less what it averaged out against when Iowa played two of the worst pass defenses in America.

Then McNamara went out and things got worse, somehow. Deacon Hill stepped into the job; he's got a 48% completion rate. He's averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. He's thrown 5 TDs and 6 INTs. His PFF passing grade of 40 is dead last of 173 D-1 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. (Michigan has already played 167 and 169: Heinrich Haarberg and Katin Houser.)

Hill has been pressured on 37% of his dropbacks and will be under siege. Iowa's leading receiver is Erick All, who has not played in Iowa's last five games. Nico Ragaini is Iowa's most targeted WR with 61; he has 26 catches for 8.7 YPC. He is dropping 21% of his targets. Hill's second-most targeted WR, Seth Anderson, is catching 36% of his targets and has a 16% drop rate. Iowa's receivers are collectively grading out 132nd of 133 D-1 teams, better than only ECU.

This is the worst pass offense in America. If Hill averages 5 yards an attempt it'll be an upset.

KEY MATCHUP: BRIAN FERENTZ vs MIKE DEBORD FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL CURTAIN CALL. Maybe Ferentz the Younger will completely change his offense to take advantage of talents like… Nico Ragaini and Seth Anderson? I dunno, but watch out for a halfback pass. Not like it could grade out worse than Hill.

SPECIAL TEAMS

As per tradition, punter Tory Taylor is a golden god. His net of 44.6 leads the nation. Also  his raw punting yards aretops nationally by 399. Nobody in the country has more punts than his 79. He has given up 25 returns for 146 yards, but… eh.

The kicking situation is suddenly shaky after Iowa had two medium-length field goals blocked against Nebraska. Drew Stevens fell to 18/26 on the year and got pulled for Marshall Meeder, a who-dat who kicked a 38-yarder to beat the Cornhuskers. That field goal would have been good from… uh… 40. Maybe. Stevens is likely to reclaim his job. He's just 4/8 from 40-49 this season. He does have a big leg, with a long of 53.

Iowa's return units were a major strength until DeJean went out for the year. Kaden Wetjen took over the punt return duties; he has 30 yards on 4 opportunities. Wetjen has been the primary kickoff returner and hasn't done anything there.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• Hill completes a pass for more than five yards.
• McCarthy throws three interceptions.
• Ye Olde Iowa Bullshit transpires.

Cackle with glee if...

• Iowa's content to get duo'd to death.
• McCarthy remains as locked in as he was against OSU.
• Michigan wins the punting battle.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 for Worst Offense In America, –1 for Michigan Doesn't Beat Themselves, –1 for Three Touchdown Spread, –1 for Brian Ferentz Factor, +1 for What If Ferentz Wants To Go Out In Style, –1 for Uh How Would He Do That With Nico Ragaini, +1 for The Pick-Sixingest Of All Teams, +1 for Golden Punt God)

Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Tony Pettiti Will Either Hand The Trophy To Harbaugh Or Not Do That)

Loss will cause me to... lament Michigan's six turnovers.

Win will cause me to... hey, Pettiti! It's your mom! She says you are a total mug who doesn't know ball at all!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

It's going to be a Michigan-Iowa game of recent vintage. The utter lack of a passing game for Iowa will be even more utter this time around, but Michigan will be more passive than PSU is and yield some yards here and there. On offense, Michigan will be conservative down-to-down, looking more like 2022 Michigan than 2023, because TOs are the only way to lose this game. They'll take some downfield shots that are relatively safe, hit a couple, grind Iowa a bit, kick more field goals than usual, and ease on out.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• Kalel Mullings has ten carries.
• The Iowa first half points under cashes.
• Michigan, 29-4.