Essentials

WHAT	Michigan (1-0) vs Hawai'i (0-2)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	8PM Eastern
THE LINE	M –51
TELEVISION	BTN (Lisa Byington, Jake Butt, Meghan McKeown)
TICKETS	$60s, falling to $20s by evening.
WEATHER	Tailgating: 80° and cloudy Game: Dropping to 68°

Overview

There are bad teams. There are atrocious teams. There are Rutgers teams that belie the whole concept of Power 5. Then there's about 15 feet of crap. And then there's Hawai'i. Alex Drain pulled SP+* ratings for the worst dogs at our bowl and found it's been a decade.

Opponent	Rk	Rating	Final Score
2012 UMass	124*	-34.4	63-13
2022 Hawai'i	128	-26.0	?
2013 CMU	112	-18.8	59-9
2014 Miami-OH	123	-18.7	34-10
2015 UNLV	116	-16.2	28-7
2013 Akron	103	-15.3	28-24
2016 (at) Rutgers	117	-14.9	78-0
2019 Rutgers	117	-14.6	52-0
2018 (at) Rutgers	108	-12.3	42-7
2021 Northwestern	106	-11.1	33-7

I did not remember playing UMass in 2012. After Alex mentioned it… I still didn't remember playing UMass in 2012. David recalled that was when Mike Cox returned with his new team and maybe played his way to a short NFL career. BiSB reminded us Denard got bored after six seconds in the pocket and danced around everybody. Denard wasn't supposed to do that, because the biggest key to that game was UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SUBJECT YOUR STAR QUARTERBACK TO HITTING.

You are welcome to tell Cade that's why JJ is starting this one. It makes as much sense as going under the lights when the biggest drama should be which backups come out in what order.

Like Michigan's first opponent, the Rainbow Warriors are just emerging from the crater of a coaching hire that ended in two years and nuclear disaster. In this case it was Todd Graham, who was so toxic he had to be removed by a state investigation, though not before most every football-capable human on the island had escaped. Unlike our last opponent, new Hawai'i HC Timmy Chang couldn't repopulate with citizens from his old town, because Jay Norvell already picked it bare. Chang was Nevada's WRs coach last year and was going to join Norvell in that same role before The Island called home its favorite 'Bow.

For the young among us, about 20 years ago Chang was the run 'n shoot gunslinger who beat Alabama the one time. If you don't know what I'm talking about, you are hereby excused from the rest of this preview to experience the last moment our nation was truly united behind one cause:

We are here to answer any questions you might have, except "What are 'Freedom Fries'?".

For the rest of you, Hawai'i is a team that would love to go back to being a June Jones run 'n shoot, but can't just yet because their only offensive weapon is a Timothy Bracken-ish running back. Their most effective defensive weapon is the endzone. If you're too young to know what a Timothy Bracken-ish running back is, I see you have refused my invitation to watch Alabama fans being miserable in paradise. You are doing this to read a preview of a foe of which oddsmakers say "will lose by 50" is too kind. This is on you.

*[Ratings correspond to how much you should win or lose to a completely average FBS team like Rutgers.]

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Run Offense vs Hawai'i

[Hawai'i Athletics]

There are 131 teams at the FBS level and we can stop right there, because if you're old enough to remember the Iraqi most-wanted playing cards, you know previews only bring up the number of teams to point out the preview-ee's proximity to last. Anyway, Hawai'i is 130th in defense to Bill Connelly's SP+, a full 2 points ahead of FIU for worst defense in the country. The bad news for Hawai'i is that early SP+ rankings ignore FCS games and still take last year's rankings into account, so 2022 FIU's score is functionally #N/A. It also throws out garbage time, when Hawai'i somehow gets worse against 5th stringers repeatedly ignoring their coaches' pleas to burn clock. In base stats they're giving up 7.5 yards per carry and over a touchdown per ten carries, despite opponents playing 5/8 quarters with a three-score lead.

Alex Drain, who bravely broke down the film of this, came out of it a little broken:

Let's just put it directly about what I watched. The Hawaii defense's performance against Vanderbilt was one of the most embarrassing and humiliating showings by an FBS defense I have ever seen. The players are completely overmatched in their 1-on-1 matchups, yes, but the organizational errors I witnessed, and the complete inability to tackle anybody on the first try, was shockingly bad. This is a roster cobbled together from cast-off transfers after the 2021 defense was nuked by the Todd Graham investigation and subsequent firing. They have very little talent and most players here are still wearing name-tags. I knew going in it was going to be bad. It was still surprising how bad it was.

Yes, my young apprentice. Let the hate for the crappy football you had to watch flow through you. Alex gave out a Foe Film-record eleven cyans (our designation for trouble spots), seven of those for starters, and refused to name a dangerman.

If he'd been forced to it would be longtime starter Blessman Ta'ala, who's not huge and not one to break into the backfield, but will fall to his knees and protect the line of scrimmage like a goalie. For the rest of front-seven Alex was like sieve-sieve-sieve-sieve-sieve-sieve:

... didn't merit a star, but Ta'ala is also the least problematic piece on the defense. He's a big beefy nose who doesn't really move. Which is good when fellow DT starter John Tuitupou is getting ejected from the line on seemingly every play. Jonah Kahahawai-Welch is the primary starter at one EDGE position, often playing from a stand-up position, and he provides little pass-rush while struggling to set the edge. …The LB level has two consistent starters, Penei Pavihi and Isaiah Tufaga. Pavihi, the returning starter, is the better player but that's like saying Zavier Simpson is a better free throw shooter than Shaquille O'Neal.

The only other non-cyan beyond Ta'ala was Anchor Mataio Soli, a former four-star Arkansas recruit who was 6'4/245 in high school and is now listed at 6'4/230. The other edge is a stand-up OLB type who keeps getting pulled for other bad ideas.

How did they get so historically bad? Well they weren't very good on defense (96th in SP+) last year, but the player exodus hit hardest on this side of the ball. Only three starters are back, and only one of them was any good. The issue is straight-up talent; even when their players are in the vicinity of the other team's, they get run by or blocked into oblivion. Imagine trying to hand out UFR scores on this run by Vandy QB Mike Wright.

It's all your fault. And all your fault. And all your fault. And all your fault.

Michigan's run game likes to push around edges and trap linebackers inside with tight ends or the occasional receiver. Their top running back is one of the dodgiest guys to tackle in the country. Our big concern after last week was we had to take the already finely tuned rushing machine out for a drive or two when we were trying to watch a quarterback battle up in here. That machine should also be better with Ryan Hayes (protocol) returning to push Trevor Keegan back to guard and Gio El-Hadi out of the lineup, and ball socialist Cade McNamara stepping aside for JJ 'keepin it' McCarthy.

The only way this isn't a historic blowout is Michigan not bothering. Hawai'i put 2/3 safeties in the box to counter Vanderbilt's QB rushing attack. Traditionally the Harbaugh reaction to that has been to add more tight ends and offensive linemen until the defense doesn't want to play in the box anymore. Michigan could get stuffed a few times if they choose not to play the game, and QB keeps are turned off. The one game last season that Hawai'i showed any run defense life at all was SDSU, when Brady Hoke tried to run six-on-eight all day.

KEY MATCHUP: NO INJURIES vs NO BRADY HOKE. If Michigan wants to squeeze a Heisman run for Corum out of this season now would be a good time to bonkers up the numbers a bit. On the other hand, the question of whether a Matt Weiss'd up, Sherrone Moore-blocked Corum-McCarthy running game is any good is the last thing we need to learn from this game, so why risk it?

Pass Offense vs Hawai'i

Throw it to the field!

So much of what a quarterback has to do on the football field comes before the snap. Can he recognize the coverage, spot where his pressure's coming from, get his team in the right call, and prepare his mind to exploit the weaknesses he found? JJ McCarthy's main goal tomorrow night will be demonstrating he is just as capable as McNamara, who despite last game's wobbles, has proven himself eminently capable.

McCarthy's main obstacle in achieving that goal will be a difficulty slider set to "The guy with the teleprompter knows where this is going."

Hawai'i played a simple Cover 1 with eight in the box against Vandy, a QB-run offense, and then went quarters all day versus WKU. In neither case were they able to generate much pass rush. Ta'ala is a stay-at-home DT and their undersized ends tend to fly upfield in an attempt to enforce some kind of time limit on how long their very slow corners are left out there. This leaves a lot of room to scramble—WKU's very-much-a-pocket-passer QB had nine carries for 43 yards. WKU also scored on a flea flicker. We're just saying.

All of those CBs are transfers, walk-ons, or in former Georgia Bulldog Hugh Nelson's case, both. He starts opposite "5-11" JoJo Forest, whose name sounds vaguely familiar because he sat out the Covid year at Oregon State during that whole kerfuffle. The safeties, among whom I include the nickel, are all tallish and skinny, but for a rotation Iowa State transfer who's more of a hybrid LB. Michigan has Ronnie Bell, Cornelius Johnson, Erick All, Luke Schoonmaker, Donovan Edwards, Andrel Anthony, and the fastest man in the history of Hawai'i.

KEY MATCHUP: ROMAN WILSON vs. ONE MORE BEDTIME STORY. The people back home are watching. The safeties can't stay back there forever. What time is it, 10:35? Okay but after this we're turning out the lights, got it?

Run Defense vs Hawai'i

Parson can play. [Hawai'i Athletics].

Like some of those Rutgers teams mentioned above, the one thing this opponent has going for them is a running back who can do things. Dedrick Parson transferred from Howard last year and ran former starter Dae Dae Hunter out of town.

Alex:

The good was there. Parson is a strong and compact back, listed at 5'8", 205 lbs., and he cashed in a long TD run when given a big hole:

Hawaii runs Belly and gets an RPS win with the corner on the playside edge crashing down and taking himself out of the play. Parson gets a window, and he's gone. He's not the fastest but his thickness allows him to shed tacklers and battle for extra yards.

Parson's not large, but he has that nasty little cut with a burst of acceleration, a good bit of meat under those shoulderpads, and the kind of legs that are still churning when you lift him up. He's also their best weapon in the passing game. Any chance to get him in space with the ball is probably their best hope to put points on the board, however Alex noted issues with holding onto that ball has put Parson's job under threat.

The RB position also has a rotation. Dedrick Parson was a guy I had high expectations for and is still the nominal Dangerman for this piece, but fumble problems have beset him and led to the rise of Nasjzaé Bryant-Lelei, who got a lot of snaps in the WKU game.

There were two fumbles that popped right to defenders for touchdowns in that game, one of them to Alex Orji's brother. Fumbles are random but Parson does tend to chicken-wing it. Nasjzaé Bryant-Lelei is a guy with some of the same attributes but less so. We'll see them both.

As for blockers, the new TE is 90% receive who will flex out to help space the passing game—if he's getting down to the LBs we've got troubles—but the OL itself has some non-disasters, namely two returning starters. LT Ilm Manning has good agility, but RG Micah Vanterpool stands out as the lineman most likely to create a cutback lane. Center Mo Ta'ala is a true sophomore who has moments when you see a star forming, but his best days are still well in the future.

The running game isn't as rudimentary as CSU's was, but they're still limited to only a few concepts that are mostly about hitting quickly: Belly, Iso, that sort of thing. They're left-handed, to the point where they'll run out unbalanced formations and pull Vanterpool to combine their best parts.

KEY MATCHUP: LINEBACKERS vs DECISIVENESS. My theory is that linebacker play is the most opponent-invariant position on defense because so much is on how well you react. Saw some good things from Colson and mixed things from Mullings trending in the right direction. This will be an incremental step up in difficulty.

Pass Defense vs Hawai'i

My proposal: Let the two head coaches each take a drive.

Timmy Chang graduated early from Nevada Air Raid Academy, but the version that enrolled on The Island this spring retains a lot more of a Mouse Davis/June Jones rolling QB flavor than the purer Mumme variant Norvel runs. The 'Raid is a derivative of the 'Shoot—the big difference is the latter likes to cut the field in half for easier reads—so the distinction is minor and probably has more to do with Chang's lack of options at quarterback.

What this means from the stands is it will occasionally look like that 2017 Minnesota QB (the game after the rainstorm when Higdon and Evans ran for 200+ each) who kept rolling to one side. Except because it's a 'Shoot those passes are coming out the second it looks like someone has leverage.

And no, they do not have any good options. The guy who's starting, Joey Yellen, started this season as the backup, replaced starter Brayden Schager against Vanderbilt, started against WKU, then got yanked for Schager after throwing 4/11 for 36 yards and an interception. He's got an 11-percent sack rate and is averaging 2.8 yards per dropback this year. He is not a run threat; all ten of his career "rushes" have been sacks.

Schager is listed as an "emergency-only" player for this game due to an undisclosed injury last Saturday. The backup for this game is Jake Farrell an unranked RS freshman who's never taken a college snap. None of these guys are the Wazzu transfer that 'Bows fans thought was coming to save them, Cammon Cooper, who got in at the end of WKU and might be gone-zo.

So: Yellen. He actually started as a freshman at Arizona State in 2019, but lost his job there and transferred to Pitt for two seasons, leaving the continent after spring ball. The most optimistic take is the plan with Yellen's late transfer was to use Schager until Yellen was acclimated. Anyway, maybe don't be too loud about our first world QB battle problems in earshot of the visitors this week.

Complicating matters are protection issues everybody was pointing out to me when I started to suggest a Colorado State tackle might be the worst player Michigan faces all year. I know we're trying to get a sense of which Michigan edges can replace a (shoulda) 1st rounder and a legend, but I don't think we'll be able to trust any information against these guys either. At least we're all becoming really good at power ranking right tackles of the Mountain West.

Further complicating matters is the injury loss off Zion Bowens, who was supposed to be their top receiver. Bowens is expected to play but probably won't be full-go yet. Alex thought everyone else was Just a Guy, with the possible exception of that Flex TE, James Murray.

KEY MATCHUP: MWC PASS PROTECTION vs UNREASONABLE EXPECTATIONS. If Derrick Moore and Eyabi Anoma come out with more UFR positives than snaps….it still might not mean anything.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The 'Bows are currently ranked 1st(!!!!?) in opponent field goal efficiency, which is propping up their FEI ranking (37th) for now, they have a guy who handles both punting and kicking well in Matthew Shipley, who has them 23rd in punt efficiency. He's got a career 40-yard average with few returns, but he's inconsistent, with punts of 31, 32, 32, and 36 yards from deep in his own zone, offset by 47- and 54-yard booms. From what I saw that may be on his long-snapper, who put a few of them low. None gave up returns, however. In three years he's a career 28/37 with a range just short of 50.

Punt returns have been a non-factor this year given they involve forcing opponents to punt; the backup slot mite gets those. Kick returns are more of a thing (and happen far more often). Cornerback Jalen Perdue is willing to take those and try to make something happen, since giving up a little field position means less than an opportunity to put those guys in space. His 10 returns this year average 17.4 yards, but variant; he took a few past the 30, and got caught at the 10 a few times.

Jay Harbaugh spends a maniacal amount of time figuring out ways to marginally increase kickoff efficiency and Michigan's anti-shield punt-blocking strategy is particularly effective against punters who can't roll away from their attack. Then you factor in the long-snapper adding a half-second to the process, and sigh because this is all just stealing yards from the offense.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• The Islanders do anything with the ball.
• Or stop Michigan from running on anything other than a well-schemed blitz.
• Both quarterbacks are a damned mirage.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan shows up hungry.
• They take it one game at a time.
• This is Michigan, fergodsakes.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 (Baseline: 5; +1 night game against team with black in their uniforms—yeah, bet you didn't think of that, did you, +1 for Hawai'i has played one more game than we have so they're more prepared at this point in the season, +1 for Vandy and WKU were better competition than CSU as well, +1 for this game starts at 3PM in Hawai'i so their players will be mid-afternoon chipper while ours are just getting settled in before bedtime, +1 for two of these guys are Georgia transfers and Georgia is a death machine; –10 for Todd Graham was here.

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for people might be watching.)

Loss will cause me to… NOOOOOOO NOT AGAIN NOT AGAIN THEY SAID IT COULDN'T HAPPEN AGAIN.

/watches Big Lebowski on repeat for six days, posts kittens on blog, 43% chance I move to Maui and start a blog for octogenarian tennis players.

Win will cause me to… Spend next week pretending what JJ did against this defense was remotely meaningful.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: Sweet-ass victory.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• The sun sets directly behind the Western boxes about 15 minutes before kickoff, and is absolutely lovely.
• #8 brings one in and Carl Grapentine absolutely nails "Catch made by Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala"
• Touchdown Carter Selzer!
• Michigan, 69-0