About last week

Over them mountains?

Over them mountains.

 

The Road Ahead

Washington (0-1)

Last week: Lost to Montana, 13-7

Recap: The 2015 Alejandro Iñárritu film The Revenant was the story from the American Northwest. Things go fine for about the first ten minutes, and then the protagonist is attacked and mauled by a grizzly bear and left for dead. He then has to drag his wounded, bleeding ass a huge distance for a shot at revenge.

There are three primary differences between the original and last Saturday’s gritty reboot:

• Saturday was about 30 minutes longer than the original.
• Saturday was bloodier and harder to watch.
• Leonardo DiCaprio didn’t have to John Donovan wandering through the woods with him pointing at various tree trunks and boulders and saying “maybe go directly through that.”

Washington executed a 9 play, 78 yard touchdown drive on their first possession. They followed that with a 9 play, 50 yard drive that ended in a turnover on downs. Their final 11 drives covered 193 yards and scored no points. John Donovan remains a master of making a plan, having that plan not work, and continuing with that plan. The slants will continue until morale improves.

It wasn’t all Donovan’s fault though. QB Dylan Morris was bad. The receivers were bad. The offensive line, which was supposed to be one of the best in the Pac 12, was bad. Having your running backs average 3.3 yards per carry against an FCS defensive line that averaged 253 pounds per starter is bad.

This team is as frightening as: Leonardo DiCaprio searching for an Oscar. Talented, but desperate. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: The Washington defense was actually fine. Montana scored 59 and 48 points in their two games in the spring season, and Washington held them to 13 points, 10 first downs, and 232 total yards.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Washington’s wide receiving corps is torn up; they started the year thin at wide out, and by the end of Saturday, they were without each of their four top receivers. They basically have four scholarship receivers left. Giles Jackson was the go-to target by the end of the game.

When they play Michigan: UNDER THE LIGHTS, uh, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN IV and VIII.

Next game: at Michigan, 8:00 p.m., ABC (Michigan -6.5)

[After THE JUMP: More. Not better... but more.]

Northern Illinois (1-0)

Last week: Won at Georgia Tech, 22-21

Recap: I… uh… what?

After failing to win a single MAC game last year, NIU beat a Power 5 team for the first time since they beat… /guesses ‘Mike Riley’s Nebraska’ but Googles anyway/… Nebraska in 2017. Rocky Lombardi only threw 17 passes against 42 runs, but he threw his second TD with under a minute left, and coach Thomas Hammock went for 2 and got it.

This team is as frightening as: Huskies. Not that far removed from the a ferocious band of apex predators (NIU was in the dang Orange Bowl less than ten years ago), but is currently tame enough to be put happily into a festive sweater. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Rocky Lombardi, still, apparently.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Even with the stunning topline number, NIU was still outgained substantially by a mediocre team that played most of the game with its backup quarterback. Vegas still has them as a touchdown underdog to a Wyoming team that barely won a squeaker against Montana State. They still bad.

When they play Michigan: Enemy or no, is a good boy.

Next game: vs. Wyoming, 1:30 p.m., ESPN+ (NIU +6.5)

Rutgers (1-0)

Last week: Beat Temple, 61-14

Recap: You know it’s a weird week in college football when you see Rutgers beat an AAC team by 47 points and it barely registers on the radar. But it gets both weirder and yet simultaneously more explicable when you dive into the box score.

Rutgers only put up 4.3 yards per carry and a Mertzian 5.0 yards per pass attempt. So how did they score 61 points with only 365 yards of offense and 21 first downs, you ask? It’s simplistic to just say “turnovers,” but… it was the turnovers. Temple turned the ball over 5 times, and as a result, Rutgers had scoring drives of 26 yards, 2 yards, 28 yards, 22 yards, and 17 yards, in addition to the 9 points scored directly by the defense.

It is entirely possible that Temple sucks. They finished 1-6 last year in the AAC. But two years ago, Rutgers scored a total of 51 points in their ENTIRE nine game Big Ten schedule. Putting up 61 in a single game, regardless of context, is a Schiano Miracle.

This team is as frightening as: Folding a king-sized fitted sheet. It’ll fold, but you won’t be happy with how it looks. Fear Level = 4

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers’ passing attack remains pretty Rutgerish (Rutgish? Rutgerial?). Noah Vedral threw for 5.1 yards per attempt, and the receiving corps remained “Bo Melton and some guys.”

Michigan should worry about: You don’t wash that “Noah Vedral threw for 350 yards against us” taste out of your mouth that quickly.

When they play Michigan: Gonna go out on a limb and predict Michigan will be favored.

Next game: @ Syracuse, 2:00 p.m., ACC Network (Rutgers -2)

Wisconsin (0-1)

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 16-10

Depth Chart

Recap: Jack Coan was 26 of 35 for 366 yards (10.5 YPA) and 4 TDs and a pick this weekend. It would have been the fifth most passing yards in a single game in Wisconsin history… if, you know, he had done it for Wisconsin instead of Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Graham Mertz was 22 of 37 for 185 yards (5.0 YPA) with no TD’s and 2 picks. He also fumbled twice, including an absolute killer with under three minutes remaining that turned a 1st and goal at the 1-yard line into a 2nd and Goal from the seven.

Wisconsin ran 95 offensive plays on Saturday. That was 44 more plays than Penn State ran. They held the ball for 42:51. And they scored 10 points. I don’t even know how that happens. Some of these drives are staggering. 15 plays, 46 yards? 12 plays, 62 yards? 17 plays, 67 yards? And none of those drives scored ANY points? What are y’all doing with these plays?

This team is as frightening as: A Galapagos Tortoise who has spent the last 80 years mastering the katana. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: They have a running back named “Chez” and a quarterback named after a cracker. That’s gotta mean something.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: In the seven game since Mertz’s breakout performance against Illinois last year, he is 120 of 209 for 1175 yards (5.6 YPA) with 4 TDs against 7 INTs. He’s averaging 168 yards passing in those games.

When they play Michigan: It’s still Madison, and that defense is still quite good.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (Wisconsin -25.5)

Nebraska (1-1)

Last week: Beat Fordham, 52-7

Recap: The good news: after futzing around with Fordham (a middle-of-the-pack Patriot League team) for about a quarter and a half ⁠— this was a 10-7 game with 5 minutes left in the first half ⁠— Nebraska pulled away easily. They outgained Fordham 633-292 and gained 34 first downs to the Rams 12. They even managed to cover the 42-point spread.

The bad news came about 500 miles away in Champaign, where Nebraska’s Week 0 opponent lost to UTSA. The Roadrunners put up better numbers across the board against the Illini than did the Huskers. Not that “maybe Illinois is secretly really good” was ever a balloon that was gonna float this house all the way to South America, but damn that thing burst with vigor.

This team is as frightening as: A chihuahua. Generally overmatched, though they don’t seem to realize it. Seems like it should be quick & speedy, but it isn’t. Will not shut up. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Adrian Martinez hasn’t looked like a world-beater, but he’s averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and has yet to throw an interception.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …against Illinois and Fordham.

When they play Michigan: Poor Damn Adrian Martinez.

Next game: vs. Buffalo, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Nebraska -13.5)

Northwestern (0-1)

Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 38-21

Recap: It took all of 13 seconds for the shine of Northwestern’s 2020 season to patina somethin’ fierce.

Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker took the first play from scrimmage 75 yards to the house, and finished with 264 yards and 4 TDs on 23 carries. And while a lot of that fell on the front seven, Northwestern’s secondary couldn’t tackle AT ALL. The Wildcats were behind 21-0 early in the second quarter, and they never got closer than 14 points down the rest of the way.

This team is as frightening as: As it should be.

Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Hunter Johnson looked serviceable, throwing a couple of nice balls on the rare occasions when his receivers gained any separation. Most of his completions were short, though, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and under 9.2 yards per completion.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern has finished a full game over .500 in consecutive years exactly twice since the 1970’s; Gary Barnett’s ’94 and ’95 teams, and Pat Fitzgerald’s ’08 and ’09 teams that finished 9-4 and 8-5. There’s a good chance this won’t be the year they snap that streak and put together back-to-back winners.

When they play Michigan: Sometimes you can feel the “dumb game” vibes coming from a mile away.

Next game: vs. Indiana State, noon, BTN

 

Michigan State

Last week: Won at Northwestern, 38-21

Recap: Looks like someone found themselves a running back.

As mentioned above, Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III went absolutely ape-shit on the Northwestern defense. He showed a rare combination of power, vision, change of direction, and enough speed to pay it off. It’s been since Jeremy Langford, or possibly as far back as LeVeon Bell, since Michigan State had a running back who could reliably get more yards than were delivered to him by the offensive line, but if this game is any indication, they have one again.

The defense was less inspiring. The 392 total yards came at only 3.4 yards per play. But Northwestern came up empty on three drives that reached inside the MSU 25 yard line. Besides, 21 points is the most ever scored by a Hunter Johnson offense, and his 3 TD passes equal his career total entering the game.

This team is as frightening as: Hemorrhoids. Just… yeah. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: I’m gonna go with “the dude who had more rushing yards in a single game than any Spartan had all of last season.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Payton Thorne didn’t look like a world-beater on Saturday against a brand new ⁠— and not confidence-inspiring ⁠— Northwestern secondary.

When they play Michigan: I can feel the clenching already.

Next game: vs. Youngstown State, noon, BTN

Indiana

Last week: Lost at Iowa, 34-6

Recap: In a week of “oof” performances, one oof stands alone. And that was the Indinia Hoosiers.

Indiana was down 14-0 to Iowa less than 3 minutes into the game, and never recovered. Michael Penix, Jr. had his worst game of his career, finishing 14-31 for 156 yards (5.0 YPA) and 3 INTs. And that “3 INTs” vastly understates the badness; two of those picks were returned by Riley Moss for touchdowns, and Penix had another pick called back on a roughing the passer penalty and two more potential picks dropped.

This team is as frightening as: Pre-renaissance Indiana. Which is somehow scarier than New Competent Indiana. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Indiana held Tyler Goodson, one of the best running backs in the conference (if not the nation) relatively in check. After his first second carry of the game went 56 yards, his next 17 carries only gained 39 yards.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penix got flustered by Iowa’s disguised coverages, and now that Michigan has unlocked “Disguised Coverage” on the ol’ Civilization Tech Tree, this could come in handy.

When they play Michigan: I, for one, welcome a return of Stupid Indiana Game That Michigan Wins.

Next game: vs. Idaho, 7:30 p.m., BTN

Penn State (1-0)

Last week: Won at Wisconsin, 16-10

Recap: James Franklin, you sly devil.

Penn State’s offense spent most of the day doing precisely nothing. At one point, they ran 18 consecutive plays without a single double-digit gainer. 33 of Penn State’s 51 offensive plays gained fewer than 3 yards. But they were able to pop juuuuuuust enough big plays to eke out some points; they got 201 of their 297 yards on five chunk plays. The other 46 plays gained an average of 2.1 yards per play. The running game produced exactly one (1) running back carry for more than 5 yards.

Winning in Madison takes a lot regardless of circumstances, but, even as we acknowledge that, we also have to acknowledge that Penn State got lucky. Wisconsin screwed around all game, getting inside the Penn State 10-yard line twice in the first half and coming away with no points, and then turning a 1st and goal from the 1-yard line ⁠— the situation Wisconsin Football was forged from the Great Universal Cheese Log those many years ago to perform ⁠— into zero points and a Penn State first down at midfield.

This team is as frightening as: Emperor Penguins. Thrive in whiteout conditions. Not particularly skilled at running. Prone to sit on the egg for long periods of time. Fear Level = 8

Sean Clifford still has…

Michigan should worry about: Between Edge Arnold Ebiketie, LB Ellis Brooks, and S Jaquan Brisker, Penn State has their usual complement of playmakers on defense on all three levels.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Folks, Sean Clifford ain’t it.

When they play Michigan: No earthly idea. Let’s discuss later.

Next game: vs. Ball State, 3:30 p.m., FS1 (PSU -22)

Maryland (1-0)

Last week: Beat West Virginia, 30-24

Recap: Maryland took part in its annual ritual of looking surprisingly good while embarrassing a Power 5 non-conference opponent on Saturday (see also: 2019 Syracuse, 2018 Texas, and 2017 Texas). Taulia Tagovialoa completed 26 of 36 for 332 yards (9.2 YPA) and 3 TDs against a West Virginia secondary that was expected to be very good.

This team is as frightening as: A four-year-old with a knife.

Fast and full of energy and enthusiasm, but as much of a threat to himself as to others. Probably not gonna end well, but you’re really curious to watch it unfold. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Maryland may have the best pair of wide receivers in the Big Ten, and yes I am familiar with Ohio State. Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus combined for 12 catches for 255 yards and 2 TDs against West Virginia.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland is 3-19 over the past 6 seasons in the month of November.

When they play Michigan: November Maryland will look very different from September Maryland.

Next game: vs. Howard, 7:30 p.m., BTN

 

Ohio State (1-0)

Last week: Won at Minnesota, 45-31

Recap: Ohio State trailed 14-10 at halftime. I choose to look at that half, with the first half of the first game of the season being the most historically accurate barometer of a team’s success that season.

If there were any surprises in this one, they were that (a) CJ Stroud MIGHT be human, (b) Miyan Williams might be the dude in OSU’s backfield over Master Teague, and (c) Ohio State has a couple of very fast receivers.

This team is as frightening as: lol Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota was able to move the ball on the ground against the Buckeyes, especially before Mo Ibrahim left the game with a season-ending injury.

Michigan should worry about: Once the explosive plays started, they did not stop.

When they play Michigan: Let’s take this one game at a time, eh?

Next game: vs. Oregon, noon, FOX (OSU-14)