The Case for Ranking M over ND in the CFP
The conventional wisdom is that if the top four teams win out, the final CFP ranking will be 1/Alabama, 2/Clemson, 3/ND, 4/Michigan. I will argue in this post that it is at least likely that Michigan will be ranked ahead of ND if each team wins out.
When teams are comparable, the CFP committee is supposed to consider four criteria:
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head result (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
So let's go through these bullets, one by one.
Conference championships won: If each team wins out, the edge goes to Michigan.
Strength of schedule: Through 11 weeks, Michigan's SOS is ranked 32nd by Bill Connelly; Notre Dame's is ranked 59th. And that's before Michigan plays OSU and Northwestern for the second time. Edge: Michigan.
Head-to-head result: Notre Dame, albeit by one score in the first game of the season in a year in which everyone knows that Michigan has dramatically improved through the course of the season. Edge: Notre Dame.
Comparative outcomes of common opponents: This is the factor that people are underappreciating. Michigan beat Northwestern by one score early in the season; ND played a similarly close game (albeit with a slightly higher scoring margin) more recently. But Michigan gets to play Northwestern a second time. If that game's outcome is more lopsided, it could make a big statement with the committee regarding common opponents. Edge: Notre Dame for now, but possibly Michigan after the championship.
That's either 2-2 or 3-1 for Michigan, if Michigan wins out and beats Northwestern soundly in the B1G Championship.
This matters, of course, because the #4 seed is likely to play Alabama in the first round. Should be interesting either way...
November 13th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^
No. No. No. No....
If you think the weight of a head to head competition makes things interesting now. Have ND lose a game and finish with one loss. All the whining and crying you will hear is the "ND is a 1 loss team and STILL has a head to head win over Michigan."
Im just saying the LAST THING any Michigan fan wants is a 1 loss ND team and the final selection to come down for the 3rd/4th spot and these are the teams that will be in the bucket:
Michigan
Oklahoma
ND
The plain and simple fact is that ND can state they are the ONLY team in that group with a win directly over anyone else. And that will carry significant weight.
As tough as it is to say this, we want ND, just like Bama, to win out. Leave no debate.
Win out, and have ND and Bama win out and we are in.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
I disagree. If ND loses they will be officially out. (Ian) Book it. The head to head win will not matter for shit. There is no recovering from a late season loss to Syracuse or USC, unless you're Alabama or Clemson. If ND played a conference championship game against a worthy opponent, and won, they would have a chance. Otherwise, no way. Michigan absolutely wants ND to lose. And with that and Michigan winning out, Michigan will secure a spot in the top 4.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
Clemson looks really good. I'm not sure it is that much of an upgrade.
Also, no.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
Our talent matches up better with Clemsons rather than Alabama. But otherwise I agree, Clemson will be toughh
November 13th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
Relatively speaking, I feel far more comfortable playing Clemson than Alabama, and I am comfortable with neither. I was thinking about this earlier today, and if I had a choice and assuming we actually make it past the final hurdles, I would breathe a sigh of relief if we got Clemson (even though we are in no way favored in that matchup either)
November 13th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
I'm curious as to why you say that our talent matches up better with Clemson. Are you saying that Clemson is less talented than Alabama and hence we are closer to them in terms of talent? If so, I'd agree.
I feel like we matchup better with Alabama stylistically though. Alabama is a really, really good passing team but their offense is a lot more straightforward. They don't run the QB as much as Clemson, they don't misdirect as much as Clemson. And Michigan has the best pass defense in football. I feel like our corners matchup well with their WRs and they struggled to pass protect in drop-back situations against Miss St. I like our ability to put pressure on the QB in a more straightforward passing game that isn't optioning nearly as much.
And Clemson probably has a better D line than Bama. As much as our O line has improved, it's still the weakness of the offense and it would get tested more against Clemson.
I'm not saying I'd rather play Bama but I feel like some of the style elements mitigate Bama's undeniable overall talent advantage.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
Bama runs a lot more spread offense than you think they do and they rarely run pro style offense. The talent advantage is still there. LSU is comparable to Michigan in terms of defensive talent and still got smashed 29-0.
Bama has three DL who are projected as a top 50 pick which includes Quinnen Williams who is projected as a top 5 pick. I would say it's even between the two of them in terms of DL talent. Plus, Bama is built to stop Harbaugh's offense. Michigan has a better chance of scoring on Clemson defense than they do against Bama.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^
Let's just get there. I don't care who we play. Alabama and Clemson would both serve as great measuring sticks to find out where we really stand right now.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:24 PM ^
There you go..."just get there"!!!
November 13th, 2018 at 6:46 PM ^
From, "Win the Game" to "Just get there", lol
November 13th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
Good analysis but from my standpoint as a fan I'm not sure that it matters. Michigan is going to have its hands full with Clemson or Bama. I'm not sure I'd rather play one or the other in the first round.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
It really doesn't matter. If we want to win the National Championship, we have to win out. That means beating Alabama. If that means we play them 1 v 4 in the semi's, so be it. Honestly, after last season's troubles, IDGAF. I believe in this team.
Right now, they're focused on beating Indiana handily...then THE GAME. The rest will work itself out.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:31 PM ^
100% correct. There are very few scenarios where Michigan would not have to get past Alabama to win the NC. Yeah, it could end up 3 vs 4 in the finals but it's not likely. If we're good enough, we're good enough and we'll beat Alabama and win it all. If not, well, it will still be great to claim B1G champs and making the 4-team CFP. Just gotta get there first.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
Assuming of course that we win out from here... I'd rather get Alabama in the semifinals. Get it over with and see how we stack up against the undisputed best team of the era.
November 13th, 2018 at 7:01 PM ^
I'd like to play Alabama if only to compare it to Sparty's playoff trip, which ended as quickly and gruesomely as Scatman Crothers' trip to the hotel in The Shining. Right now we are tied all-time with MSU in points scored in the CFP. I'm sure we would at least take the lead in that category.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
Where it is even close, the advantage should be given to the team that won head to head. Why else play the games? I couldn’t disagree any more with people that argue Michigan should overtake an undefeated ND team this year.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^
It was the 1st game of the season.
Brand new starting QB
Tougher overall schedule than ND
I ran out of gas!
We have a higher scoring margin
and that's against a tougher SoS
I got a flat tire!
I didn’t have change for cab fare!
M has a better defense
I lost my tux at the cleaners!
and the M offense isn't much worse than ND
I locked my keys in the car!
An old friend came in from out of town!
Someone stole my car!
M has better advanced stats
There was an earthquake!
Vegas would favor M at a neutral site
A terrible flood!
Locusts!
IT WASN’T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!
November 13th, 2018 at 6:14 PM ^
Because the point is to determine who the best 4 teams are at the end of the season and rank them in that order. The point is NOT to determine who beat who at the beginning of the season 4 months prior.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^
Agree. ND won head-to-head. They had, on paper, a really tough schedule to open this year with Michigan, FSU, Stanford, USC.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
I'm hesitant to use words like "precedent" describing the playoff committee, because it's pretty clear they just decide who think is better in their hearts and invent a reason later. But they've made it pretty clear that head-to-head ain't a big thing to them. They care more about 1) number of losses 2) conference titles 3) how dominant you looked. I don't think its necessarily the head to head that will get ND above Michigan, it's the 0fer in the loss column if they win out. Michigan's potential 13th game being shit ass Northwestern doesn't help either.
As far as Michigan seeding goes, hell I'd rather play Alabama first. No matter how you slice it, you'll have to play them, so you might as well do it first with a lot of time to prepare and as fresh as you'll be. And if you beat them in round 1, that's a hell of a psychological advantage for the Clemson game.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
Especially with a ''home field advantage.''
November 14th, 2018 at 5:49 PM ^
I'd rather play the tougher team first, as well. Injuries happen, and you are less likely to have a key player injured going into the first game.
I'm just not so sure that Alabama is the tougher team for Michigan to beat. The matchups seem better against Alabama than Clemson, if Clemson is as good as they look against a suspect schedule. Alabama's defense doesn't worry me as much as Clemson's does, and Alabama plays the kind of offense Michigan defends well against.
Losing to Alabama in the first round would be tolerable if Alabama wins it all. Best case is M beats Bama and then plays a ND team that got all the breaks against Clemson. Worst case is M loses to Bama and then Bama loses to a ND team that got all the breaks.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
Ok was hoping somebody would start a thread on this topic cause I didnt want to do one myself. Watch what happens tonight - I'm fully expecting the committee to put Georgia ahead of Michigan based on their higher number of "quality wins" on the season. This is the payoff the committee gets for over-ranking the SEC teams and under-ranking the B1G teams all year long. Take a look:
Michigan quality wins 2: MSU (#18) & PSU (#20)
Georgia quality wins 3: Kentucky (#11), Florida (#15) and Auburn (#24)
Both teams have one quality loss: Michigan to ND (#3) and Georgia to LSU (#7). I heard at least three different people today on both Fox sports and ESPN say Alabama is in the final four no matter what they do against Georgia and if Georgia wins they will obviously be included as well. I know that nobody here wants to here that and very few believe we'll get left out but I'm telling you I can see this coming a mile away and if Georgia wins we're gonna get screwed.
Let's see what happens tonight. If I'm right we're about to move back to #5 while OSU stays at #10 and the committee will put two of their beloved SEC teams in the final four and will make the B1G east title game of 5 vs 10 not nearly as important as 1 vs 4 in the SEC.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
Why is division champ Northwestern not considered a quality win?
November 13th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
They arent ranked in the top 25.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
They must be on the fringes. Hopefully they win out and get into the 20-25 range where they should be. That and an osu win should be good enough.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
No, they arent. You're referencing AP voting and that's not what the committee uses. They are unranked, as of last week, by the bowl committee.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
That was before they won the West. The CFP committee seem to consider things like that, so watch them show up this week or next.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^
If Northwestern and Wisconsin break into the top 25 the last week of the season will that boost those wins or too little too late?
November 13th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
Your data is not accurate. Auburn is no longer 24th. And will Kentucky still be top 25 (probably i guess).
But your idea stands - Georgia is very close and still could very well jump us.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
I used last week's data. In all probability MSU will fall out of the top 25 this week as will Auburn giving us one quality win and them two.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^
It's very plausible Northwestern gets into the top 25 though. We'll see.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
Yes, MGrowOld, I think that is probably what will happen tonight. I don't think it changes anything though except for it gives people the illusion that these weekly reveals are something to pay attention to.
Everything holds, we win out, Bama beats Georgia - Michigan is in.
Complete chaos, we win out - Michigan is in comfortably.
We win out, everything else holds, Georgia beats Bama - We eat sad pizza and play WSU in Pasadena.
(Unless..... Trump Card bitches!!! Georgia blows Bama out, then Bama eats the sad pizza and we are in).
November 13th, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^
That's about my take as well. We really need Alabama to beat Georgia. And if they don't do that, we need them to suffer the most feckless, humiliating loss in the history of football.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
The only way they put two one-loss SEC teams in the playoff is if Bama loses the championship game. Bama would be the only team that they would dare to try to rationalize is better than a 12-1 Michigan. Michigan not only has major cache, but is a very, very attractive brand to have for TV ratings.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
Yes, exactly. That's exactly what i've been saying here for a week now. A one loss Alabama team will trump our Michigan ace cause the committee wants two SEC teams in the final four.
An Alabama win is what he need to have happen. They wont take a two loss Georgia team before us.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^
they've also been calling this year's Alabama team the greatest team in the history of forever.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
I've seen a lot of people talk about Michigan's TV appeal and I just don't think that's very important in this instance. Do you really think that more people are going to tune in to watch Michigan vs Alabama than Clemson vs. Notre Dame.....or any other iteration of the Final Four? It's the semi-finals....people would watch even if MSU was playing (and losing 38-0).
November 13th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^
The CFP has struggled with ratings to the point that they’ve moved the games around to catch more eyeballs.
It definitely matters.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
they did schedule semi-final games on New Years Eve which was not the best programming decision.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
Last week was a dull week as regards movement in the Top 10 ---- I sort of expect UGA (which does have 3 nice wins in a row) to be ranked #4 just for the added "drama" of it all.
And then folk will have something to talk about tomorrow.
Honestly, these week-to-week rankings are dumb IMO. As 2014 proved, they just change things up at the end as they see fit.
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As regards a 12-1 Alabama with a loss to a 12-1 Georgia in the SEC Title Game: I think it's to Michigan's benefit for Oklahoma and Washington State to keep winning and get to 12-1 themselves.
The committee can quasi-justify leaving one 12-1 conference Champion out (to include Alabama), especially when that one 12-1 Champion has a loss to a team already in the playoff (e.g., the "they had their chance against a team in the playoff" argument can be used)
I'm not saying I agree with that argument - but I can hear it being made.
I think it's hard to keep THREE 12-1 conference Champions out to include Alabama. Then there are 3 sets of folks bitching and complaining. They'll be more inclined to include one of them. And then it becomes more of a direct comparison between U-M, WSU and Oklahoma.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^
This is an interesting take on the situation. You have a plethora, yes, I said PLETHORA, of 12-1 conference champions waiting in the wings after a Bama loss in the SECCG. It may force the committee's hand to boot Bama, else they have two P5 conferences screaming at them. That scenario would almost certainly impose immediate changes to a 6 or 8 team playoff.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
Sadly, I could easily see this playing out as you’ve described since the decision makers are heavily SEC biased and no one seems to care that ND gets a bye on a conf title. Stupid is as stupid does.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
I won't say you are wrong, but if the committee takes a 1-loss, non-conference champ over a 1-loss conference champ - then the playoffs will cease to exist as they are currently constructed and it will most likely move to a larger format (12 - 16 teams).
If you leave out 3 Power 5 conferences in favor of putting a rematch in the playoff (UGA and Bama), then the playoff committee will lose all credibility and the people on the committee will be out of a job. For self preservation alone, I don't think the committee would do that.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^
Michigan will have had more quality wins than Notre Dame. It's entirely possible that they're the ones who get left out.
I still maintain if they "wanted to" rank Georgia ahead of Michigan, they'd have gone ahead and done it last week. What's stopping them?
You may be right that Michigan gets left out, but it's not going to be due to some diabolical SEC conspiracy theory with the college football illuminati planning out a month's worth of polls just to get the result they want. If it happens, it's because they happened to pick those four teams that week, and it's not something that's going to cost me a bit of sleep.
This is, however, why people's suggestions to cheer for OSU are preposterous. There is a known procedure for wining the Big Ten, so concentrate on that -- and if an OSU loss makes that more likely -- which it does -- then that's what you should want. The playoff is a beauty pageant.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
so then it'll flip when Michigan plays Ohio State and Georgia plays Georgia Tech.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^
Good point. I had not thought the timing of the games.
My core point remains though regarding a one loss Alabama team vs a one loss Michigan team. But I do think you're right that we'd move back to #4 in two weeks if everything goes as planned.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^
They also play UMass this week, which #HALOL. Great ending to the season for UGA.
Auburn will lose to Bama so there goes another "quality" win for UGA, plus a 20 point loss mid-season to LSU.
I think Michigan is in if they win the B1G by beating Ohio State.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^
I'm in this camp. A one loss Michigan BIG champ is in. The Champ of the best or 2nd best conference cannot be left out at 12-1 with a 1st week loss to the #3 team. I don't think the rest of the season will play out to garner this type of very difficult decision, but I think we are in if it does.