The Case for Ranking M over ND in the CFP
The conventional wisdom is that if the top four teams win out, the final CFP ranking will be 1/Alabama, 2/Clemson, 3/ND, 4/Michigan. I will argue in this post that it is at least likely that Michigan will be ranked ahead of ND if each team wins out.
When teams are comparable, the CFP committee is supposed to consider four criteria:
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head result (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
So let's go through these bullets, one by one.
Conference championships won: If each team wins out, the edge goes to Michigan.
Strength of schedule: Through 11 weeks, Michigan's SOS is ranked 32nd by Bill Connelly; Notre Dame's is ranked 59th. And that's before Michigan plays OSU and Northwestern for the second time. Edge: Michigan.
Head-to-head result: Notre Dame, albeit by one score in the first game of the season in a year in which everyone knows that Michigan has dramatically improved through the course of the season. Edge: Notre Dame.
Comparative outcomes of common opponents: This is the factor that people are underappreciating. Michigan beat Northwestern by one score early in the season; ND played a similarly close game (albeit with a slightly higher scoring margin) more recently. But Michigan gets to play Northwestern a second time. If that game's outcome is more lopsided, it could make a big statement with the committee regarding common opponents. Edge: Notre Dame for now, but possibly Michigan after the championship.
That's either 2-2 or 3-1 for Michigan, if Michigan wins out and beats Northwestern soundly in the B1G Championship.
This matters, of course, because the #4 seed is likely to play Alabama in the first round. Should be interesting either way...
November 13th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
Yes this scenario would be very bad for Michigan.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
Georgia beating Alabama would be REALLY bad for Michigan. I fully appreciate what criteria the CFP committee claims they consider, but I find it very hard to believe that a 1-loss Bama team gets left out for a 1-loss Michigan team, even with M winning the B10 Championship.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Ideally, Alabama wins, Clemson loses, and both Notre Dame and Michigan win out. Then we can settle the issue of who is currently better with the Irish.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
Ideally, Citadel beats Bama this weekend.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^
I think for Michigan to *realistically* win the M-ND comparison, the committee will need to think that Michigan is on a higher *level* than ND, not only above but by a significant margin, therefore preventing them from even needing to make those four comparisons (including H2H).
And to make that realistic, ND has to lose. Likely to Syracuse.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
No
I we don't want or like some stupid SEC argument that team B should get in over team A because SEC! SEC! SEC! than Michigan can't and shouldn't be ranked ahead of ND
November 13th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
If ND and Michigan win out, the only way that Michigan passes ND is if we flat out dominate OSU and NW. Beating OSU, ranked in the top 10, by 20+ points in Columbus would get the committee's full attention. Following it up by crushing NW while ND is idle could be enough to override ND's head to head win with recency bias being what it is. I cannot see a close win against either or both schools being enough.
I am not saying we should pass ND. We lost in a game never felt as close as the final score to me. That is a lot to overcome. I would just be happy to beat OSU by any margin of victory and NW to claim the Big Ten title. Everything after that is gravy.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
Agreed. Our first offensive TD came with two minutes left. I don’t think their was an unbiased person who watched that game and thought “Michigan was really competitive in this game”. That’s why there was so much panic after that game.
And I don’t really buy this idea that Notre Dame hasn’t been playing well or that they’re overrated. After they switched to Book, I was a believer that they are good team worthy of the playoff at 12-0. They have destroyed most of their opponents since the switch, with the exception of Narduzzi’s “try to beat one team we shouldn’t beat” game, and a late rally by NW. And it’s not like we were all that amazing vs Northwestern either.
Just win out, and we’re in. And honestly, I would almost rather play Bama than Clemson. Clemson I feel is laying in the weeds until the playoff. Something about them feels like thei 2016 team
November 13th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
If it were Alabama with Hurts instead of Tua, than yes. Let's not get too arrogant with how good our D is... one injury could change ALL of that-- on either side.
Just win, baby.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:58 PM ^
Which is why I trust computers to judge the results of the game over humans. People panic. The S&P+ formula cranks through and says Michigan had a 60% post-game win probability against Notre Dame. Play the game 10 times, in South Bend, with the same yardages, etc., and Michigan wins 6.
That's also why Michigan is a solid 7+ point favorite over Notre Dame on a neutral field right now. Michigan is a better team than Notre Dame, no matter the results in the first game of the season.
So many people are throwing out most of the data to focus on two data points: Notre Dame hasn't lost a game -- then again, UCF would be 9-1 with that schedule -- and Notre Dame beat Michigan. In 2015, MSU beat Michigan. Only Jemele Hill and her 500K mid-Michigan Jabroni followers believed that MSU was better than Michigan that year. You can't just say "team A beat team B; therefore, team A is better." That's not how life works.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:43 PM ^
Huh? How was Michigan better than MSU in 2015?
November 13th, 2018 at 4:33 PM ^
Can't get past the head to head result. Mind you, at this point of the season, on a neutral field, I'd like our chances against the Irish, but that's a fantasy.
Honestly: I couldn't care less about playoff talk at this point. The teams in the top six have at least two, maybe three, games left to play. A lot could happen. All I care about is beating OSU. Anything after that is gravy. Alabama ... Clemson ... who cares?
November 13th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
There's many fans who want to dismiss the head to head result because Michigan has improved dramatically since opening the season in South Bend. However if the roles were reversed, we would be touting the head to head result as reason why we should be ranked ahead of ND. I think we would win a rematch but we had our chance and didn't take advantage.
We really need Northwestern to win out to give us another win over a ranked opponent. That may be the one hope we have to pass ND, beating two ranked opponents to capture a conference title.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
The question is, will 8-5 Northwestern be ranked or not? Losing to the same team that already beat you once shouldn't drop you in the rankings because you haven't learned much new information, but you know they'll drop after a B1G CG loss.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
C'mon. We lost to ND HEAD-to-HEAD, let it go. Top-4, sure. But to claim we should be ahead of them is quite laughable. We lost to them. 12-1 v 12-0 is still a "-1" to the team that is 12-0. IF/WHEN Notre Dame loses a game, then we'll be ranked ahead. Go Orange!!
November 13th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
Not to worry, ND is going to lose to Syracuse this weekend.
Then all hell breaks lose.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
My burning question for OSU week is how much did we prepare our team for Tate Martell?; because he can run the zone read.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
We prepared well for JT Barrett and if I suspect that Meyer will play both Haskins and Martell against Michigan, than I expect that Don Brown is preparing for that as well.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
Michigan is better than ND, any objective fan of college football who knows their stuff would agree. Hell ND might not even be a top 10 team, outside of Michigan they dont really have a marquee win. Meanwhile since that game Michigan has now beaten 4 top 25 teams and presumably if this conversation still matters in 4 weeks Michigan will have beaten 6 top 25 teams, OSU being a top ten. With that said Michigan screwed up by not taking care of business in South Bend. They had every opportunity to win that game, IMO minus the first 2 ND drives Michigan controlled that game. Shot ourselves in the foot time and time again, ND didn't do anything special to win that game. However, ND won, that win and the perceived notion that an undefeated power 5+ND team is somehow worthy of a CFP spot.
Michigan should be ahead, but I'd say we are right were we need to be as of now.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
They’re undefeated and they beat us. Case closed
November 13th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
undefeated > one loss
especially when loss was to undefeated team. the rest is window dressing and mental gymnastics
November 13th, 2018 at 7:06 PM ^
Then you need to put UCF in the playoff ahead of Michigan. To do otherwise is intellectually dishonest.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^
UFC would be (at least) a 3 loss team in any P5 conference.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:47 PM ^
The only possible reason for doing this, assuming both teams win out, is to send the message to ND, "join a conference or else".
I'm personally fine with this and am in favor of a playoff requirement that you must be a conference champ, but it's never happening. At least, it's not happening this year.
November 13th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
In my mind, given all the things out of our control, the one thing that should begin tonight is a PR campaign from B1G HQ, ESPECIALLY if your "Georgia to #5" scenario occurs. Delaney needs to be vocal about the value of conference championships (or why the hell do they matter - besides $$$) and the ridiculous scenario of having two teams from one conference in the playoffs (it was settled on the field).
You can't start bitchin' and moanin' after the fact because it's too late and you're a sore loser. Now is the time to start the serious questioning of how middling ACC and SEC teams are automatically superior to B1G, Pac 12 and Big 12 middling teams. What the hell else is Delaney good for if not to get out in front of this for the conference? If we're left out to two SEC teams that just played and he's been silent, he should be fired. (Oh, and for rutger, too)
November 13th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
This shouldn't even be a discussion.
The CFB Playoffs is about putting the four most deserving teams. What makes a deserving team? Obviously one is playing extremely well. But winning also matters. You can be the greatest team in college football, but if you can't close out your must-win games, you don't deserve to go.
ND beat us when it mattered, and will (likely) go undefeated. They're in.
The real discussion is if undefeated Michigan should go above Alabama if Alabama loses to Georgia. I think yes.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
Actually, CFB playoff is putting out the four best team, not four most deserving teams. That's how Bama and OSU got in from the past few years.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^
Bring on Bama
November 13th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
Michigan will be either #2 or #4. The committee would kill to have a Harbaugh-Saban semifinal if stuck with ND and Clemson as the other two teams. However a Michigan Notre Dame rematch, should Clemson stumbles in the ACC championship, would be a spectacular consolation prize for the committee and us fans.
November 13th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^
Beat bama first or second. Doesn't matter.
GO BLUE!!
November 13th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^
I cannot condone ranking Michigan over ND if they win out. Given the exact same circumstances in reverse, I would be so pissed if ND ended up ranked ahead of Michigan. I would be calling for the committee to be dissolved and replaced with a better playoff system and selection process. Oh wait, I'm doing that anyway....
November 13th, 2018 at 5:24 PM ^
Syracuse can end all of this, this weekend.
Please, Syracuse?
November 13th, 2018 at 5:43 PM ^
Just win out and make the playoffs. You have to play Alabama sooner or later, in all likelihood, and it doesn’t mater if it is the first game or the second. You might even say the first game is preferable in that you might be able to sneak up on them more so than in the final. But either way.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
There is no case for Michigan finishing ahead of Notre Dame unless they lose and Michigan wins out. It's really that simple.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:20 PM ^
The metric that ought to be applied is not Strength of Schedule, but Strength of Resumé (as posited by Bill Connelly a few weeks back and now updated weekly), which is a metric that combines schedule strength with how the team actually performed against said schedule (using actual points scored), and compares that with how an average top-5 would be expected to perform. Most of the ratings are negative since most teams are not top-5 teams. Indeed, Michigan is only one of three teams with a positive result. You'll also notice that many of the usual suspects populate the top-10: Bama, Clemson, Michigan, Georgia and Oklahoma as well as non-P5 fancy stats darlings Utah St. and Fresno St. Noticeably absent from the Strength of Resumé top ten is Notre Dame, who can be found at #14, 11.7 points lower than #3 Michigan. It's also worth noting that the #1 Death Star is another 11.5 points above Michigan...
November 13th, 2018 at 6:21 PM ^
If 2 SEC teams get in and B1G/PAC12/B12 get left out again I cannot see the CFP structure remaining. These are meaningless exhibition games that bring in incredible amounts of $. Let the ACC/SEC have their own postseason and the other 3 can come up with their own arrangement.
The biggest problem is ESPN being in bed with the SEC. They have a vested interest in the SEC being consistently over-rated every year. Every ESPN commentator tows the line that SEC is the greatest conference known to man.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:28 PM ^
With three games to go the case for an 8 team playoff remains very strong. And though there will surely be some "sorting out" that "sorting" will not negate the appropriateness of expanding this field. Conference divisions confound and pollute the process...this whole thing needs a serious re-work. A part of me hopes that the top 6 teams win out with the exception of Georgia beating Alabama...and let the hell rain down on this ridiculous 4-team arrangement...because there would be two team left out that absolutely should be and have every right to be included.
Otherwise, it does not require much delusion or imagination to place Michigan ahead of ND at this juncture.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:38 PM ^
Too soon. Let’s hold off on playoff seeding until after these next two games. Need a strong win Saturday and any kind of win in Columbus. I was confident before the 2016 game and then Speight and the refs happened. Nobody here should be over confident about the Ohio game. And Clemson would be a tough game as well.
November 13th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^
I say they just announce the rankings a day or two before the games begin. That's all the time I need.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:41 PM ^
November 13th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^
I think if Michigan wins out it will end up being 1. Bama 2. Clemson 3. Michigan 4. Oklahoma
I think ND loses to Syracuse or USC.
I think Georgia loses to Bama.
I think West Virginia loses to Oklahoma.
However, if all win out I think it will end up being 1. Bama 2. Clemson 3. ND 4. Michigan.
(Notre Dame can make a case by beating Syracuse and USC handily, but if they play close games and Michigan crushes Indiana, osu and nw...could be interesting).
November 13th, 2018 at 6:57 PM ^
not sure USC is good enough this year to knock off NfD.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
I think you're correct. Syracuse will beat them this weekend.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:45 PM ^
Agreed Bama beats teh doors off of UGA. But no way Syracuse beats ND, like less than a 10% chance. West Virginia is for real and I think they split the back-to-back matchup with Oklahoma which will dump both from the chance. UM just needs to win out. Go Blue !!!
November 13th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^
I think your final 4 picture is ALMOST correct. Instead, I am going to slot WVU in there instead of Oklahoma. I think WVU will win the Big12 by dominating Oklahoma to the point that the committee cannot deny them a spot in the CFP. And ND will lose one of their next two games.
November 13th, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^
I can see Clemson dropping to 4th if ND blasts Syracuse and sets up a first round rematch. UM vs ND. Alabama vs Clemson. Imagine the ratings that weekend.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^
I would love to reduce the Bama-Clemson episode four (?) showdown to a semi-final matchup. So sick of those two teams playing for all the marbles.
November 15th, 2018 at 2:14 AM ^
They were a semi-final matchup last year.
November 13th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
The only legitimate case for this is Notre Dame taking a loss. Undefeated ND should be in over everyone other than Bama.
November 13th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
Just watching ESPN and the ranking and they just started debating. What "if" ND stumbles? And the response was split. All I am saying is that ND winning out is better for us than a 1 loss ND. While most agreed that Michigan is playing better, ND holds the ultimate trump card by simply stating they beat Michigan.
And as Jesse just noted, it would be "We beat Michigan with our BACK UP QB."
While I personally believe Michigan gets in, to me it is just not a slam dunk as most people believe it would be.
Again, best case scenario for Michigan.
1) Win out.
2) Bama wins out
3) ND wins out
After that it doesn't matter. If 2 or 3 do not happen, then there will be debate and ballsey feeling notion of "Well, who is playing better?"