The Case for Ranking M over ND in the CFP
The conventional wisdom is that if the top four teams win out, the final CFP ranking will be 1/Alabama, 2/Clemson, 3/ND, 4/Michigan. I will argue in this post that it is at least likely that Michigan will be ranked ahead of ND if each team wins out.
When teams are comparable, the CFP committee is supposed to consider four criteria:
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head result (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
So let's go through these bullets, one by one.
Conference championships won: If each team wins out, the edge goes to Michigan.
Strength of schedule: Through 11 weeks, Michigan's SOS is ranked 32nd by Bill Connelly; Notre Dame's is ranked 59th. And that's before Michigan plays OSU and Northwestern for the second time. Edge: Michigan.
Head-to-head result: Notre Dame, albeit by one score in the first game of the season in a year in which everyone knows that Michigan has dramatically improved through the course of the season. Edge: Notre Dame.
Comparative outcomes of common opponents: This is the factor that people are underappreciating. Michigan beat Northwestern by one score early in the season; ND played a similarly close game (albeit with a slightly higher scoring margin) more recently. But Michigan gets to play Northwestern a second time. If that game's outcome is more lopsided, it could make a big statement with the committee regarding common opponents. Edge: Notre Dame for now, but possibly Michigan after the championship.
That's either 2-2 or 3-1 for Michigan, if Michigan wins out and beats Northwestern soundly in the B1G Championship.
This matters, of course, because the #4 seed is likely to play Alabama in the first round. Should be interesting either way...
November 13th, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^
If ND loses the probability of them not being in the final four is MUCH higher than a 50/50 proposition. I would put it much closer to "No chance in hell". And this in no way jeopardizes Michigan's chances...it most certainly would enhance them. Remember, you were listening to ESPN!
November 14th, 2018 at 12:57 AM ^
I agree, a one loss ND may still get in over WVU/OU but Michigan will jump them as the #3 team in the playoffs, if we win out. Our biggest worry will be if GA beats AL and ND and Clemson win out. I think there is a 50/50 chance that this dumb ass committee will put AL in over us and leave us out. I'm sure this will cause an expansion of the playoffs, just like when the coaches gypped Michigan out of a full national championship in '97, the NCAA invented the BCS bowl game so that #1 would play #2.
November 15th, 2018 at 3:04 AM ^
Note quite - the NCAA did not really create the BCS and the BCS was just a reforming of a prior system.
There was a system in place to arrange #1 vs #2 games since the 1992 season, but not all conferences and their home bowls agreed to join. The original system was called the Bowl Coalition and it included the ACC, Big 8, Big East, SEC and Southwest conferences plus Notre Dame, and their home bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sun, Sugar and Cotton). The Big 10, PAC 10 and Rose Bowl declined to join the coalition. In 1995, the Southwest conference disbanded so the coalition was reformed and renamed as the Bowl Alliance. It dropped disbanded Southwest conference's home bowl - the Cotton bowl After the 1997 season, the Big 10, PAC 10 (as it was called) and Rose Bowl decided to opt in so the Bowl Alliance was reformed again, and this time renamed to the Bowl Championship Series - BCS. It was formed by 6 conferences including the today's P5 conferences plus the Big East. It also included independents and others and the corresponding bowls.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^
There is no way in hell ND stays in the picture (ahead of Michigan if they win out) if they lose one of their next two. My argument would be that ND lost with their BETTER quarterback on the field. And they beat us on their home turf 10 or 11 weeks ago when Michigan was a different team.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:59 PM ^
True, but a Golden Domer will tell you that they beat Michigan with their BACK UP QB. It goes both ways.....
And a Golden Domer will also state they are a very different team with Cook as their QB now.
Its just not that crystal clear.
Is completely clear cut / slam dunk with a 1 loss ND? ...... Not really
Will Michigan win out....yes
Will Michigan deserve to be in the CFP? ..... yes
Do I believe Michigan deserves to be in the CFP over a 1 loss ND? ..... yes
November 13th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
We will be #3 if we beat Indiana and OSU. ND does not have a road win against a top 10 opponent.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:31 PM ^
The only reason to care is so we wouldn't have to have a bad trip flashback of when Alabama murdered our team in 2012 at AT&T stadium. Either way Clemson is also a very tough match up.
November 14th, 2018 at 9:12 AM ^
How about we're a tough match-up for Clemson? I don't know why we as a collective group continue to assess our place in the CFP from a position of inferiority. Alabama is the best team in the country by a good-sized margin right now, no argument. Anyone facing them in the playoff is going to have their work cut out for them. But Clemson? I'd love to face Clemson and sic our defensive line on their freshman QB. The BC defense gave Clemson a game for a while and for lack of a more productive offensive, I dare say could've really provided competition. Clemson has yet to face an offense with as many weapons as Michigan.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^
None, no case. ND beat UM head-to-head.
Edit: assuming both win out.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
The notion of us leapfrogging ND - a team that directly beat us and has no losses - is pretty ludicrous especially given that all of our remaining potential wins are somewhat tainted. No-one will care about Indiana, they'll say it's a 'down year' for OSU if we beat them and cite the Purdue game, they'll dismiss a win over Northwestern in the CG as nothing valuable as well.
Now it goes without saying that all of this is a massive case of people putting the cart before the horse..as a win vs OSU in Columbus is not something any Michigan fan should ever pencil in.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^
One important problem, you say when teams are comparable. Michigan will have one loss and ND none. They won’t do any comparing beyond that, and as a Michigan fan I would not want that precedent to be set. ND is undefeated and generally considered to be part of the P5. That should matter more than anything in the current format.
November 14th, 2018 at 12:06 AM ^
Agree. The only positive would be that it may force ND to join a conference.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
I believe you are only making this case because you don’t want us to play Bama and are hoping another team will beat them for us, making the road to a title “easier”. Just win the games.
November 14th, 2018 at 12:04 AM ^
Clemson should be 4, they will get exposed in the playoffs
November 14th, 2018 at 6:00 AM ^
If Syracuse beats ND, don’t be surprised to see M drop to 5 or 6 below Georgia and Oklahoma. The best thing we have going right now distinguishing us from the other 1 loss teams is that our loss came at the hands of undefeated ND.
November 14th, 2018 at 8:10 AM ^
Assuming UM wins out - "takes care of business" in final three games.
Ranking Scenarios:
- Bama, Clemson and ND win out ... UM stays #4 (my most likely case)
- Bama, Clemson win out but ND 1-loss to Syracuse ... UM becomes #3, OU #4
- Bama 1-loss to UGA, Clemson wins out, ND wins out ... Bama is #4 (shit case)
- Bama 1-loss to UGA, Clemson wins out, ND 1-loss ... Bama #3 and UM #4
Clemson is playing patsies so they aren't losing. To minimize the risk in Scenario 3 where a 1-loss Bama bumps us out, we need Syracuse to edge ND in a close game. That would likely deliver under Scenario 4 the final CFP ranking: #1 Clemson, #2 UGA, #3 Bama, #4 UM.
My most likely case is Scenario 1, but at this stage of the season a 1-loss ND from a #12 Syracuse at Yankee Stadium would not drop us out of the top 4 given how well the committee has stated we are improved since that ND loss. Scenario 3 is danger for us, but Scenario 2 and 4 are going to work for the good guys.
So there ... Go Orange, Beat ND !
November 14th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
If the real metric is “4 best” you take M over ND period.
On a neutral field played in November, I would bet the majority of football fans pick your team to beat them.
Ergo, the “ eye test”. You deserve 100% to be in if you run the table. And it isn’t close. Better wins, better margin of victory, more than satisfactory eye test.
And I hate your team. Lol. Respect and facts trump individual rooting interests.
November 15th, 2018 at 2:00 AM ^
Michigan will have the better SOS but it won't be night and day different. I use Sagarin's and those SoS scores are closer than the ones you listed. Michigan still has to play Indiana and Ohio State while Notre Dame plays Syracuse and Southern Cal. The committee has Ohio State ranked 10th and Syracuse ranked 13th. They must not see a big gap between those two teams. Neither Southern Cal nor Indiana are in the playoff rankings but Sagarin's computer system has Southern Cal ranked 21 places higher than Indiana. Michigan can win a conference championship and ND cannot. But over the past few years, the committee has showed that they only consider conference championships as a tie breaker. Michigan might get a second shot at Northwestern and beat them worse but would the committee assume that Notre Dame couldn't have beaten them worse too if they had the chance? Who knows? My gut instinct is that the committee will treat rankings 3 and 4 the same as if they were ranking 4th and 5th. In other words, would they leave out an undefeated Notre Dame in favor of a 1-loss team that Notre Dame beat? I don't. So for that reason, my best guess is that Notre Dame would finish 3rd and Michigan 4th unless Notre Dame loses. But I don't think it really matters. Bama and Clemson are very similar. If you can beat one, you'd have a good chance against the other. And if you can't, then it doesn't matter.
November 15th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^
The only people who would be pissed at this... ND fans. The rest of the world is good with it.