The Case for Ranking M over ND in the CFP

The Case for Ranking M over ND in the CFP

Submitted by Communist Football on November 13th, 2018 at 3:21 PM

The conventional wisdom is that if the top four teams win out, the final CFP ranking will be 1/Alabama, 2/Clemson, 3/ND, 4/Michigan. I will argue in this post that it is at least likely that Michigan will be ranked ahead of ND if each team wins out.

When teams are comparable, the CFP committee is supposed to consider four criteria:

Playing Football While Being Notre Dame

Playing Football While Being Notre Dame

Submitted by Ecky Pting on November 7th, 2018 at 6:45 PM

Bill Connelly's Strength of Resume supports the assertion that Michigan has the strongest record thus far of the one-loss teams, with Georgia and Oklahoma right behind. Connelly's Strength of Resume basically evaluates a team's past record by comparing the actual scoring margins in all of its games to that of a hypothetical average top-5 team (i.e. with M at #3, M would be akin to your average top-5 team).

Michigan Moves Up to #3 in S&P+ Rankings

Michigan Moves Up to #3 in S&P+ Rankings

Submitted by mjw on November 4th, 2018 at 1:03 PM

Flipped spots with Oklahoma.  Pretty big divide Michigan and Clemson (#2), so barring them losing a few, this might be the team's ceiling.  Full list here

Individual team profiles haven't been updated yet, so can't give new win probability or projected margin numbers for the Ohio State game.

Other teams of note:

The case for rooting for LSU over Alabama this Saturday

The case for rooting for LSU over Alabama this Saturday

Submitted by Communist Football on November 1st, 2018 at 10:37 AM

The conventional wisdom among Michigan fans is that it's in our interests for Alabama to beat LSU, because that increases the likelihood that only one SEC team makes it into the CFP.  I'd like to argue the opposite, which obviously is mainly of relevance only if we win out.