The case for rooting for LSU over Alabama this Saturday

The case for Joe Klatt over Paul Finebaum.

Any questions?

I would like to see our D measure itself against Alabama. And I think that if our offense continues to improve that on a very good passing day by Patterson we could score points against them. 

Bama is not going to lose twice, so that is the flaw here.  However painful it is, I will be hoping that Alabama wins out and eliminates having two SEC teams in the final 4.   If Bama has 1-loss, then they will be in the final 4.  The signal is already there from the committee - they put LSU ahead of ND so they would have the cover to drop Bama to only #4.

People need to realize that the whole CFP was created by the SEC for their benefit (i.e. conference title means nothing more than a tie breaker). 

We need Alabama to eliminate LSU and UGA by giving them 2 losses.

None of your cases hold much water...and are not worth consideration at this time. Besides, from the POV of the athlete-any athlete worth anything, you want to play "Alabama". Anyone who does not want to play Alabama-sucks for them...you're off the team-I do not want to play next to you.

Fans remain idiots and deserve no consideration either...in case you were wondering.

There is some seriously flawed logic in this post.

1. The SEC champion (assuming it's one-loss Georgia or LSU) will get into the playoffs. 

2. One loss Alabama will get into the playoffs.

Why do I believe No. 2 is true?

Because one-loss Alabama always gets the benefit of the doubt.

Alabama has five national championships under Saban. 

Know how many undefeated seasons they have under Saban?

One.  

Four of their national championships include a loss. 

I disagree with point #1.

If Alabama loses to LSU on Saturday, and then both win out, both will get in.  If an even somewhat reasonable case can be made to include Alabama, they will get in. 

If Alabama wins out, including against LSU, it is very unlikely that another SEC team will get in.  At that point, a 1-loss Michigan's most likely competition is Oklahoma.  It will be much easier to make a case for Michigan over Oklahoma.

"If Michigan wins out, they will not be left out of the CFP, no matter what..."

-This is an assumption, and I think it is probably correct. But it is by no means certain and not "written into the rules" anywhere. Given that leaving a one-loss Alabama team out seems like a massively risky prospect, if it's between us and them, why risk it? 

"If Alabama has one loss, there is at least a possibility that they lose twice..."

-Um, OK, sure. They've had like 4 seasons in the past eleven years with more than one loss. Two of those were two-loss seasons, and one of those losses came in the CFP. Of course it's "possible" they have more than one loss once they get that first loss, but that seems like a huge leap and is quite unlikely. 

"If Alabama finishes the regular season with one loss, there is at least a possibility that they are left out of the CFP..."

-I think the odds of a team that has won 5 of the last 10 NCs being left out of the playoff because they have one loss is incredibly small, especially if it is between them and another one loss team. If for no other reason, they are the defending champs, and if it was between them and any other one loss team, there would need to be an incredibly strong argument for putting anyone else in besides them. 

All of that being said, I want to see Alabama lose because their fans are just the most awful humans. But I would in no way make 50 logical leaps to defend this as "better for Michigan" or anyone else. 

If Michigan loses to Alabama in the semi-final, I'll still come away very satisfied with the season, even if it's approaching a blowout. I realize that is aside from the point of the OP. But my point is making the Playoff is a key next step in the progress of the program. Therefore, better to ensure a clear path and no risks of 1-loss Alabama and LSU-or-UGA SEC champion both ahead of UM.

I understand the intrigue in imagining possible scenarios..

but good God we've got 4 weeks left to play yet and a conference championship game. Who know what happens in those weeks. It will all play out on its own in the end.

These arguments don't hold for me.

1. It doesn't matter who I root for, since I have no influence on the outcome.

2. The chances of Alabama losing once are low. The chances of them losing twice before the end of the regular season are... almost nonexistent. If they're going to suffer a late-season upset to, say, Auburn (who looks bad right now), that's still a bad loss for them, I'd just as soon have LSU out of the picture.

3. There's a chance that Bama gets left out of the playoff with one loss to LSU, but it's not a great chance and I'd rather not play with it.

The major argument for rooting for LSU? I don't like Bama and I've always had a soft spot for LSU as a college football fan. I went to a game there in 2001 and it was phenomenal. 

I think that, in low-probability scenario in which Michigan wins out and makes the playoff, it is likely that Michigan draws a top-seeded Alabama. I'd rather not, but fine. The playoff is big boy football. You play terrific teams. Our chances would be low. But it's college football, anything can happen. 

Just win our games, let the other stuff settle out.

Absolutely wrong, IMO.

A 1-loss Bama has already proven to be capable, they are the defending NC and they've already done enough to warrant entry with a single loss.

Michigan needs to win out and get a tiny bit of help ASSUMING Bama wins Saturday. A Bama loss would make the road for a 1-loss Michigan so much harder. A 1-loss UM still needs Oklahoma and Georgia to lose again for safety. They're ahead of both today but if both rattle off a string of blowouts it could get iffy, especially if UM is winning by single digits vs PSU, OSU and a West champ deemed weak in the media. Style still matters a bit and our offense still looks inept for 2 quarters a game.

As bad as Bama losing to LSU would be, Bama not losing until a UGA SEC CG could be worse. Again, they wouldn't fall far and still have the Bama credentials. The impact there would be the late loss.

Our best setup is Bama winning out and a loss hitting UGA, OU and/or ND. We have to win out, obviously. A loss and we're talking about the best bowl possible. 0% chance a 2-loss UM gets in.

This is Rat Poison - Beat Penn State

Your premise is that Bama should lose twice or zero times for Michigan's case. A zero-loss Bama is more likely than a two-loss Bama, so no, there's no reason to root for LSU this week.

No. this is flawed logic.

Get out of here. This is insane.

Bama is in unless they lose twice.  And even then, the committee finds a way to get them in.  If Bama loses to LSU and LSU wins the division and the conference, one loss Bama gets in due to the Alabama Exemption.

You might as well cheer for Bama to keep on winning.

It is likely that:

1. an SEC team is in the CFP
2. Clemson is in
3. ND remains undefeated and they are in

That leaves competition for the 4th spot between B1G champ, Big12 champ, Pac12 champ and a 2nd SEC team.

So... our best chance to get in is for there to be NO chance of a 2nd SEC team, and that means LSU must lose this Saturday.  Period.

The number of people commenting that "there is no way Michigan gets left out for Alabama" / "Look at the schedules" is honestly concerning.  It doesn't matter -- It just doesn't.  It's Alabama. If there is an argument for Alabama to be in the CFP, they are going to get in the CFP over Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma, OSU ... any other "big" name.  That's what happens when you are still in the middle of a dynasty.

Alabama is not losing to LSU.  I have no idea where they are weak, but I anticipate we'll be doing something other than watching CBS after 9:30PM Saturday night.

This is beyond idiotic.

A ZERO loss Alabama is far more likely than a TWO loss Alabama. A zero loss Bama means there is a two loss LSU and (at least) two loss SEC East champ, therefore eliminating two SEC teams getting in. 

At that point, you are looking at a Bama, Michigan, ND, and Clemson CFP.  Assuming these four win out.

A one-loss Bama leaves the door open for the SEC champ and Bama and then the choice between Clemson, ND, and Michigan for the other two spots. We are more likely to lose out there. 

This is not an original comment, but I remember reading somewhere how Alabama is now being rewarded for their dominance in past seasons, in addition to the current season. Add this to hysterical headlines such as "Is this the best CFP team in history?" and you have to wonder, if a one-loss Bama makes it in, to what extent is that due to a halo effect given their recent history? 

wait, you're rooting for alabama to lose twice so we don't have to potentially play them.  well, if they lose twice, are they really that good?  and if you think there is a chance they lose twice, why should they be feared?

The common sense scenario is to root for Bama, since that knocks out LSU. I'm thoroughly on the 1 loss non SEC champ Bama doesn't get in over 1 loss champ Michigan, so a morbid part of me wants Bama to lose to see that unfold. I will die on that hill and ind of want it to happen, so I can know I'm an idiot or gloat about being right.

So much happens throughout college football in November most people will forget Ala/LSU ever happened.

Let it play out, root for the Maize and Blue and enjoy it.

Alabama isn’t losing twice, and a one loss Alabama would probably get in over a one loss Big10 Champ Michigan.   Undefeated Notre Dame and Clemson get in for sure.  The SEC champ is almost certainly getting in.   

I totally agree with the prevailing wisdom that we have to be rooting for Bama this weekend.   

There's a simpler reason.....Alabama is really easy to hate and watching them lose brings me joy.  Sure, I disagree that it benefits Michigan, but I'll root all the same.  

I am treating this season like an old-school pre-BCS season.  Beat your rivals, win the league, good things will await you.  I don't care what we're ranked, I don't care about scenarios, I don't care about records.  I want to beat PSU and OSU (plus the tomato cans) and then everything else is gravy.  

Man I disagree with every one of your conclusions. The selection committee sucks the SECs dick as hard as humanly possible. They'd put 3 SEC teams in the playoff if they thought they could get away with it.

I want LSU to win because I don't like Alabama very much. I don't give two sh*ts about potential playoff implications given that it's early November and every scenario has so many IFs attached to it that it's not even worth thinking about it really.

For one, Michigan - who according to the forum consensus a month ago were headed for a 7-5 season - would have to win their next 5 games to even be in the discussion. It's possible, but it's also not nearly as likely as this forum now seems to believe. Beyond that, all those other teams also have to win a bunch of games for the scenarios to line up as people describe. A ton of stuff can happen and usually does happen that makes these early November discussions a moot point.

"because that would make it at least possible that Alabama could be upset twice"

They're not losing twice during the regular season/conference championships.

I want LSU to win.

you haven't watched the Joe Klatt videos have you

Your argument in no way suggest that it is BETTER for Alabama to beat LSU. It only says that Michigan still gets in if LSU wins. This may be possible, but it remains MORE likely to get in if Alabama wins. 

If Alabama loses twice, it will only be because of some major injury in my opinion. The only logical rooting interest is LSU. 

The best scenario for college football is for a one loss Bama to get left out of the playoffs so that Nick Saban will tell the committee that the playoff needs to be expanded to 8 teams and the committee will bend over backwards to make it happen next year.