ESPN Lists us as #5 in the CFP Rankings So Far
Mates,
Per the ESPN article I will link below, our beloved Wolverines are listed as #5 on the CFP rankings, out of 15 teams they say are still 'alive' to get in. Besides us, ohio and Iowa have a shot to make it. Our now-vanquished friends in EL as well as Wisconson are out, as is our next opponent, PSU.
Top four were
Bama
Clemson
ND
Georgia (trending down)
Go Blue,
XM
October 24th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
I think this is one of the biggest non surprises one week before the first CFP rankings are released
October 24th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
I think Florida is a bigger threat to our chances since they beat LSU. If FL wins out and beats an undefeated Bama to win the SEC, are both FL and Bama in the CFP?
EDIT: should have been a reply to the Hatter post below
October 24th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
FL beating Bama is a big IF in my opinion.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
I dont think a team that lost in the Conf Championship game would make it unless every other team had 2 losses. It's one thing to be passed for the game due to a tiebreaker but losing in the final game, I just don't see losing what is generally considered a play-in game and it having no impact. Plus, once again Alabama has not exactly had a challenging schedule and if they beat LSU to go undefeated in the regular season, that would still only give Alabama only one top 25 win on the season unless Texas A&M wins the rest of their games and they stick at the bottom end of the top 25
October 24th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
Alabama is in unless they lose twice...and even then the committee might include them.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:34 PM ^
I don't see it that way. Big difference between losing on the road (as they did last year at Auburn) & losing a neutral field conference championship.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
I suppose it could happen depending on Florida's margin of victory. But even though it's Alabama, how do you justify putting in a 12-1 team with a loss that happened 5 mins ago over a 12-1 team, that won its conference and last lost a game on September 1st?
October 24th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
These committees are always willing to adjust the rationale around the results they want. If Alabama loses in the SEC title game, it'll be "well, they were undefeated in the regular season--they shouldn't be punished for playing in a championship game."
October 24th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
Their rationale will be that Bama is one of the BEST teams. They've never said they wanted the 4 most deserving teams.
October 24th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
If the point is to choose the "best" teams, then why are strength of schedule or conference championships even considered?
This is what I mean. The selections are made arbitrarily, and then post-hoc justifications are given for why some teams are in and others are out.
October 24th, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^
because they had a better overall season? I’m not saying it’s really the case but it’s possible bama could have significantly more wins against ranked teams than us at the end of the year.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^
Highly unlikely that they beat UGA on a neutral field and Bama in the SEC. IF they pull that off, they probably deserve the CFP as much as anyone.
October 24th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
FL not going to win out.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Not sure why they have Georgia ahead of us, but whatever.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
Its ESPN, what else needs to be explained. It will take care of itself. All the top SEC schools, except Alabama will have 2 losses by the end of the season, and I believe Bama will lose 1 somewhere, not sure where, bit they will. ND will be the only undefeated team.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
Where would Clemson's loss come from? I just don't see them losing @FSU, vs Louisville, @BC, vs Duke or vs SCAR.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
I don't know, but when was the last time we've had 2 undefeated teams? I guess ND could lose and Clemson could be undefeated, but I think the rest of ND's schedule is hot garbage. Clemson starting a freshman at QB means anything could happen.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
They lost to 3-3 Syracuse last year. They lost to 5-4 Pitt the year before. Hell, they were lucky to get a win over Syracuse this year.
These things aren't always easy to spot on paper, but that doesn't mean they can't happen.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^
I see you are not familiar with the ACC.
It is called "clemsoning" - the act of pulling a Clemson. Google it. They will lose. Why? Because they are Clemson. Clemson always loses one ridiculous game...except for that one year. Think of it as the ACC version of "Sparty No!"
October 24th, 2018 at 6:37 PM ^
You just described Michigan in the Schembechler/Moeller/Carr era.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
I'm not sure they actually do. Per the article, "Contenders are listed by record and in order of FPI rank.". UGA has the same record and, apparently, a better FPI.
October 24th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
Doesn't matter. UCF will win out and lock up their second straight national championship.
October 24th, 2018 at 9:42 PM ^
We are all just playing for second place.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Continue focus
winning five will deliver
Bo’s goal, big ten champs
October 24th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
538 has Michigan 5th as well....gotta win out with fingers crossed
October 24th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
I stopped reading 538 when they, you know, totally blew that thing they were so sure of in November 2016...
#nopolitics
October 24th, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
#nopolitics
I don't know if a 70% chance is something they were "so sure of." Draw a card from a deck. Is it an ace or a face card? That's a 30% chance.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
Pkatz just showed that he doesn’t understand how probabilities work.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
guessing that was mostly tongue-in-cheek, not a serious statistical commentary.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
This is going to be a tough path to tread so I'll try to do it simply in mathematical and pragmatic terms.
Statistically they gave said event about 30% chance of happening and even laid out the exact path that it ended up following. If anything they proved to be the most accurate. Their models are still pretty good for events filled with uncertainty.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
Correct. They were pretty much the only national organization that gave that event anything more than a snowball's chance in hell of happening.
And the national polls were within the margin of error.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^
Yup. Nationally, 538 was dead on. If I remember correctly, they slightly overestimated voter turnout among minorities, mostly in a few key cities in Michigan, PA, and Wisconsin.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
They also didn't bank on so many people leaving the top line of the ballot blank (90K just in MI, margin of victory being around 10K). Because that never happens. Like never ever.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^
That 30% came from running 10,000 simulations with random errors in polling in either direction. So, that means that the 7,000 ended up one way and 3,000 ended up another. He repeatedly said that the margin of error in polling is generally 2-3%, which was more than enough to swing the odds.
That being said, beyond predicting games, I'm not sure how he can say they have a better shot than us. We'd be in nearly identical situations. The only thing I can think of is that they are running their ELO on the back end to determine it.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
That's better than Marcus Ray. On BTN live today, he says that Purdue is the best team in the B1G and Michigan is #2. Howard Griffith laughed at him, and it's painfully obvious he has an agenda at this point, I just don't know what it could be.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
I wonder what crawled up his ass and died? Does he really hate Harbaugh so much that he's willing to constantly shit on the school that gave him everything good in his life?
Seriously Marcus. Every good thing that has ever happened to you happened because you went to Michigan (and had Woodson covering half the field).
October 24th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
At what point is it safe for me to admit that I never thought the hit on Boston was all that impressive? Dude was airborne and Marcus just basically pushed him down. I realize SI put it on the cover but it's not like he lit the dude up.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
It made for a great picture / .gif, but that's it.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
Marcus thinks he covered the other half as well as Woodson closed off his side.
The better question - why does he still have a job at BTN?
October 24th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
Because BTN sucks in some very fundamental ways.
Seriously, they have Gary DiNardo on there every day talking like he knows things about football.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
He feels threatened by the success of the team. Like they'll be stealing his (and the 97 team's) glory if they win a title. Unlike 99% of former players who want the program to succeed, he wants to be able to look down at the current players and be able to point out that they're not as good as his team.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
That's some pretty severe narcissism.
Which I guess in the age of the selfie and twitter is normal.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
Maybe his agenda is to be laughed at.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^
I feel like I heard he wanted a job on Harbaugh's staff and didn't get one so it's sour grapes.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:34 PM ^
Food comas make you think unrationally.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
PSU and OSU are going to try as hard as they can to knock us out but I don't see it happening. We'll win our remaining games as long as the team stays focused and plays with that same aggression - which they will.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^
Anyone who doesn't think Michigan is in if they win their remaining games (including the conference title) is crazy. There is no chance in hell UM gets left out when you consider their strength of schedule alone. All three rivals were road games with one of them being a loss by only seven points, which was also the first game of the season with a new QB.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^
I think it's very unlikely that M could be left out if they run the table from here. But there are a couple ways I could see it happening if the SEC champion is not Alabama.
If Clemson and ND win out, they are both undefeated and will be in.
If LSU, Georgia, or Florida wins out from here, that team will finish with one loss and necessarily have beaten Alabama. If we assume that's Alabama's only loss, then you have three 12-1 teams (Alabama, Michigan, and the SEC champ) for two spots. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the committee takes the two SEC teams and leaves Michigan out.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
I think it's nearly outside the realm of possibility. The committee left the Big Ten out last season in a very close call. Taking two SEC teams in that scenario means they want to blow up the current system, because that's what would happen.
Oklahoma is the bigger threat.