Bye week snowflakes
Things on my mind that don’t all warrant new threads. Comment on some, comment on all, post pics of bunnies with pancakes on their heads, whatever.
1. Look into your crystal ball, is Shea the qb next season or has he moved on to the NFL? I’m feeling 50-50 about it right now.
2. Uche feels a lot like Winovich 2016 as Brian mentioned in the game recap. Can he be a good enough run defender that we plug him into Winovich’s spot next year as a full time starter, or will be still be a situational pass rusher.
3. If we get past Penn St and Rutgers still looks..like Rutgers, do you consider giving McCaffrey the start? Conventional wisdom says no, you pull Shea when you have a comfortable lead, but there might be some benefit to extended action for McCaffrey/Milton.
4. Who will have more success in the Big Ten: Scott Frost or PJ Fleck? Early returns not great on either but still very early for both. Personally I think Frost will figure it out and do fine there. Not sure if PJs boat rowing will find as much success in Minnesota.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
I agree with #1. While he's great in college, I can't imagine Shea being anything other than a disaster in the NFL right now. He doesn't seem confident enough throwing into tight windows and passes up available throws when they're there. The NFL is all tight throws. I selfishly hope he comes back, but I also think it would be best for him (unless some team is going to draft him in the 1st round I guess)
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
Best feeling bye week I think I've had in my time as a Michigan fan (since '06)
Re #3: Still seems to me that Shea doesn't trust his protection well, doesn't trust his receivers to make a play, and is hesitant to throw it into to tighter coverage. I say start him vs. Rutgers and just go air raid. If Shea starts putting it in the ButtZone for Nico, DPJ, and Gentry more often, this is a really tough offense to stop
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
I hate bye week...
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
1. Shea is gone if we make CFP.
2. Uche (pass)/Hutchinson (run) and Paye are your DEs next year.
3. You start Shea and pull when lead is comfortable
4. Frost
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
1. 95% Shea is gone. I’m pretty sure it was discussed at the beginning of the season that it was basically a one year rental for him then he was going to the draft. If he ends the year with 2200 yards 20ish TDs and 5 INTs with Michigan in the national spotlight he could gainer enough hype to slide into 3rd or 4th round.
2. I think we will see Uche stay a pass specialist but he will see more snaps overall next year.
3. Play Shea as much as you can, keep his rhythm and in game reps for him and the O line and recievers will be so so important going deeper into the season facing higher quality opponents.
4. Frost, Adrian Martinez is gonna be a problem for the next 3 years. He is super impressive physically for a true frosh and throws a beautiful ball. I think he will make them a decent team with a few good runs sprinkled in over his tenure. Fleck is so so so over rated. Talks fast, says a lot, has good grandpa metaphors, but doesn’t win games. He will be gone in 2 years.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
I know that the prevailing thought was Shea would be a one year rental before he jumped to the NFL. But he's also come out and openly talked about how much he has been learning from Jim and Pep. If he gets a 3rd round or later grade I don't see that as a slam dunk that he would bolt.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^
1. I think he stays but if he does leave I feel really good about McCaffrey anyways.
2. I think he will be very productive but will be in a rotation.
3. Shea plays 1st half and 1 series and then it's up to DCaff.
4. Frost for sure.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
I will dissent from the other comments and say yes to starting McCaffrey against Rutgers. I like it. Get him 12-15 PAs in real time and give Milton the entire second half (minus the first drive of the 3Q, as is customary)
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
Beat Penn State
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^
My initial impressions:
- I think this is the most interesting question of all of them. To me, Shea Patterson does not look NFL ready. At 6'-2" he's a little small by NFL standards (that's not going to change, obviously), has a lot of problems with zone coverage and has happy feet in the pocket. Compared to what Michigan has had in the past 10 years he's great, but that's a low hurdle to clear. McCaffrey has looked as good or better than Patterson in short duty, and given Harbaugh's philosophy of competition (includes Milton and Peters), it isn't a given that Patterson will be the starter when the season opens in 2019. So it might not be a bad idea for Paterson to take his chances on the NFL at the end of this season.
- Assuming that Gary is also leaving for the NFL, and given the way Don Brown likes to rotate in DL's, Uche is going to have to see a lot of time on the field. He might not see 50% of snaps, but it will probably be close.
- I think Patterson should get all of the meaningful snaps he can... so with Rutger, that's probably just the 1st half.
- I have a feeling that Frost is going to build Nebraska to something around what they were under Pelini, which was pretty good. Doing that at Minnesota would be the first time in about 70 years. I also seems that Frost has a good comradery with his players.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^
- Although obviously I'd love for him to come back, I think he's gone. He hasn't put up huge numbers in our run-based offense, but he has excellent efficiency and has the arm strength and athleticism NFL teams are looking for. The NFL doesn't just evaluate stats - Josh Allen was drafted 7th overall, and he had horrible numbers. And the way the NFL compensation model works, there's a huge incentive for players to get to their second contract as quickly as possible, and staying in college longer than necessary just delays that.
- I think Uche has shown more than enough competence against the run to be our WDE, especially since Kwity Paye has proven to be such a good anchor. But Don Brown seems to play his DEs on both sides, and I'd bet those two and Hutchinson split time about equally (with Vilain in the mix if he's ever healthy).
- You absolutely do not start McCaffrey. First, even though Rutgers is Rutgers, you don't tempt the fates. Second, Patterson has only started eight games at Michigan, and he's obviously far more important to the team this year, so it could be good to give him some drives to keep the rhythm going. That said, if we're up 20+ in the first half, I could see him getting a quick hook and playing McCaffrey and Milton for the bulk of the game.
- Frost. Even though Nebraska is ass this year, it's a place that he can recruit and he can win, and he's proven his mettle as a coach. Fleck had success at WMU, but I don't think he's as good as Frost. In addition, if Fleck did happen to lead Minnesota to a couple successful seasons, he'd almost certainly leave for a higher-profile program.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^
I could have probably asked my question #4 a little differently since most will agree that Frost/Nebraska has a higher ceiling for success. Maybe a better question would be who will have more success compared to what the expectations are. If Frost brings Nebraska to an 8-5, 9-4 program like under Pelini, and Fleck gets Minnesota to be bowl eligible every year, maybe that’s more impressive.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
1. Gone to NFL especially if he grades first two rounds
2. Uche will be a good replacement for Chase. Another year in weight room will be key
3. Start Shea for a couple possessions then Mac
4. Frost
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
Frost. Nebraska’s offense is already quite good, except when we hamblasted them. Minnesota totally underwhelming.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^
1. He gone. Hope he heads into the Draft fresh off a CFP appearance.
2. I think he's time-sharing next year.
3. No. But hopefully Shea is handing it off to Tru Wilson up 35-0 before D-Mac comes in.
4. Frost and I don't think this is even close. Frost is going to win the Big Ten West within 3-4 years. I think it's more likely Fleck is fired within 3-4 years than Minny winning the Big Ten West.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^
2. Plagiarism. (Refer to MGoBlog's recent mentions of Uche.)
3. Hell no. Until we have Peak Shea he should play most of the games. OSU will probably save their best effort for Michigan.
4. I think Fleck is a buffoon and a charlatan. I expect him to be coaching Northern Illinois in a few years.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^
I don't think you can start McCaffrey against Rutgers. I know it feels like an NFL preseason game but we will still need to give it our all. I do think we can pull starters at halftime if the score is out of hand. The danger is losing momentum and flow by resting players too much.
Scott Frost will far exceed Fleck in my opinion. I don't think Fleck survives to get a long-term contract extension.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
Here’s a hot take:
I think McCaffery will be a more effective QB by next year anyway so I’m fine with Shea leaving.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
1) a crazy playoff run could change things but as of now i think he’ll be back
2) he may still be more of a situational player, but he’ll get a bunch more snaps even so
3) no, but he’ll take over in the 2nd quarter when we’re up 35-0
4) frost and it’s not even close
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
What would be the argument for Fleck over Frost?
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
I guess the argument would be that Fleck actually turned a program around. UCF was good for a long time before the bad year right before Frost took over. He had a lot of talent to work with in a talent rich state. WMU did nothing before Fleck. No bowl wins, no MAC championships in a state without a ton of talent and 3 other schools on the same level fighting for it.
(I still think Frost is going to be better in the long run)
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
1. I think he declares for the NFL. This is a very weak QB class. A strong finish to the season and good individual works outs could result in him being drafted a lot higher than he probably should be. I think it is in his best interests for his long term development to return.
2. My guess is yes after another off season to get stronger.
3. Shea needs the reps. Right now, he is mostly still waiting for guys to get open rather than throwing with anticipation or throwing them open. If the offense was 2nd nature to him, then maybe I could see going with the back up. Give him the 1st half to continue to sharpen up and then let McCaffery light up Rutgers in the 2nd half.
4. Frost. Besides being a better offensive mind, he should be able recruit better at Nebraska than anyone can at Minnesota. Nebraska seems unlikely to recapture their glory years, but they should out pace the Golden Gophers.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Frost and Fleck are both probably going to be fired within five years. It’s pretty obvious that both are flash in the pan type guys. Frost less so, with only a few games under his belt, but his offense is not going to translate well to this level. It’s pretty easy to gameplay him.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^
1. I think Shea is the QB. He looks liek he is having too much fun. He probably goes end 2 early 3rd rounds either way so why not have another year in college. Especially, since the whole O could be back. (Except JBB and Perry)
2. Don't think Uche could get to the weight he needs to be a Winovich. Think it is more plausible he turns into a Furbush who could still rush the passer on 3rd against spread teams in a 3-3-5. DB has shown he will try to get the best guys on the field.
3. No. Don't get cute. Style points still matter. Put up 100.
4. Scott and I don't think it is close. Followed Fleck closely as I have a degree from WMU. He is a good recruiter, don't think he is the best XO guy. He never really beat a team he had less talent than and lost some games he should have won before his final year. His teams were a low big ten team talent wise. Plus, having Terrel fall into his lap as a legit mid major QB and getting Corey Davis, who ended up being the best college WR in MAC history, those were some nice breaks.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
1. Check back later. If the season were to end right now, I'm saying he is returning. But if he continues to develop and grow and say we win the playoff, then he's gone.
2. bring on Wino 2.0
3. It would be stupid to start Dcaff. Start Shea, let him score 3 TDs in the 1st quarter and then let Dcaff come in after that. Milton can play once we have a 50 pt lead, so that may come after the half.
4. My guess is Frost, if only because he will be given a longer leash and have more time to build his program since he's the former star QB.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
I may be in the minority, but I don't mind if Patterson goes pro. I think McCaffrey is the better QB RIGHT NOW, and I think he has a higher ceiling than Patterson.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
To be honest, it isn't even the snowflake threads after Bye that bother me, but the amount of shits and fucks in the open thread for Bye, since they traditionally play us close although this year, I don't suspect it will even be competitive.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
Fuck Bye. That shit ass muthafucka
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
I think Shea is a GREAT College QB... but he hasn't shown me NFL-level just yet. Not to say he can't be... but leaving after this year, I can't see the benefit
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
1 - Shea will stay. He isn't NFL ready.
2 - Uche full time. Coach Matty will put on his wizard hat and turn will into an NFL'er.
3 - Shea will start the 3rd Q but not quite finish it.
4 - Who cares. Just keep beating them both.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
1. Shea stays one more year, too much going on and will want a season with a few more signature moments. Right now has to compete with Herbert and I think he'll want to have more of a resume.
2. Assuming Uche will gain a little more weight and be able to hold up, similar to Chase. Given what he's shown on the field hard to argue against it happening. There are other bullets in the chamber, but right now it feels like Paye will rotate with Hutchinson at SDE leaving Uche to handle WDE.
3.Keep starting Shea to help the starting offense work on its stuff in a fairly low threat environment. Pull him early, but he needs the live game reps and Frankly so does Hamilton.
4. Scott Frost, you can already see how dangerous Nebraska is going to become once he gets the defense right. Fleck is fine, but I don;t see him overcoming the substantial limitations Minnesota has as a program. Frost is positioned to be cooking with gas eventually, just in time to be our dedicated crossover opponent, YAY!
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:47 PM ^
1. If Shea keeps improving and has an impressive last few games, I think he's gone.
2. Full time starter.
3. Shea starts and plays the first half. McCaffrey starts 2nd offensive series of 2nd half. Milton gets cleanup duty.
4. Probably Frost, but as someone mentioned earlier, the expectations for each will be much different. Both coaches benefited at their previous stops from having better players than their conference counterparts. Frost has a better chance of pulling this off (at least compared to the Big Ten West teams) but neither is going to be able to compete at the same level of recruiting with Michigan, OSU, or PSU.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
- Shea could use another year in a pro style system at Harbaugh's tutelage if he wants a shot at NFL first round money$
- Yes, Uche grows into Chase's roll ... like he did for Taco
- You start Shea, pound the ball on the ground with like 3 play-action TDs and let the youngsters mop up late 3rd and 4th quarter
- Scott Frost at Nebraska ... it is a sure bet, 100% confident ... Gophers have no national appeal nor do they have any rich history in collegiate football
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:14 PM ^
#3. Milton doesn’t make the trip to Rutger. This is two-fold.....#1. travel roster limitations #2. Even IF Milton has passed Peters, you need/want Peters to get into that game early enough to be able to show off his abilities.
Peters picking up P5 interest (ideally not in the B1G) as a grad transfer will do wonders for attracting and keeping QBs at M until not needed. —- Imagine Peters at WSU next year slinging the ball around for Mike Leach.
(Obviously it would be ideal if BP stays even if it is as a backup...we don’t need an Nebraska-level QB situation)
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^
Unless Fleck has the ability to hire excellent assistants, I'll be very surprised if he gets anywhere close to what Glen Mason achieved. He strikes me as all PR and marketing.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^
1. If we beat OSU, win the B1G, and go to the playoff, then he's gone. Otherwise, I would think he'd be better served by coming back. He's definitely not 6'2", he might be barely 6', so he's not gonna get the scouts jizzing themselves over another mediocre, tall white guy from the B1G. I think if the season ends badly, he'll want to come back like Chase did.
2. Uche will play some on standard downs, but we have enough depth that he won't start.
3. Nah
4. Frost can actually coach one side of the ball, can still recruit and has more resources.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^
I really only have an opinion on #4, so I'll just answer that one based on my (potentially incorrect) impressions:
I've seen a lot of really good arguments in the thread for Frost, and I think the "If he can't turn it around, where the hell do you go from there" one is compelling. Frost is going to have a tougher time turning it around because Nebraska can no longer use their Big 8/12 ties to easily get into the fertile recruiting ground of Oklahoma and more importantly, Texas. Nebraska has always had to recruit nationally and Frost's ties to the West Coast from his Oregon days may be very important. But you still have to convince a kid to come to Nebraska. I also keep in mind that Frank Solich and Bo Pelini were fired after nine-win seasons at Nebraska. I'm not sure what that means for Frost, but it is in the back of my mind.
Fleck has a more interesting case because Minnesota would like to have good football, but they're not obsessed with having good football. They enjoy the Gophers, they would like to see them win, but they're not going to go crazy about it. Fleck seems like he has those good Midwestern values and is good with the media and he has lower expectations...except that because of that, Minnesota could more readily see an ability to cut ties after say a disappointing 4th year than continue to row the boat.
I just find it hilarious that the Big Ten, after giving us six years of getting Wisconsin while OSU got Nebraska flips it and will give us six years of Nebraska starting in 2022, while Michigan State trades Northwestern for Minnesota (though given Northwestern's record against them in the last three years, they may welcome that change.)
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
1. I think he stays unless he balls out, we win out, and make the CFP
2. I could see Uche getting there eventually, but probably not next year. He needs to put on about 15 pounds to be Winovich's size and I'm not sure he can get there by next year, but I definitely see his role increasing for next year.
3. Maybe, would prefer to keep Shea in, then maybe put McCaffrey in in the 4th
4. Frost 100%
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
1. Shea is good, but he doesn't scream "ready for the pros" when I see him play. He's got an arm, he can make plays, but he is hesitant about throwing the ball and doesn't see open receivers at times. If he is first round draft material, then of course he'll go pro, but it seems another year with Harbaugh would do him some good.
2. Uche looks good. Can he maintain his speed with another 10-15 pounds on him? That's what it will take to be a better run defender.
3. Shea plays the first half. DCaff in the second half vs. Rutger unless Harbaugh wants to go for more than 78 points this year.
4. I'd say Frost will be more successful. What he did at UCF would support that. But, given how long Nebraska has been in the wilderness, I'm wonder how recruiting will go for him. Nebraska's glory years are further behind them than ours. He needs to pull players out of Big 12 territory and Florida. What 18 year old kids want to spend 4 years in Nebraska? Fleck will probably bump along at 7 to 8 wins per season, but as mentioned before, Minnesota needs to accept that and stop changing coaches all the time. Some stability would help and might get them to an occasional 9 or 10 win season as Ferntz does.
October 23rd, 2018 at 6:09 PM ^
Shea might come back for another season, but that may make McCaffrey decide to transfer. I mean, he's already been waiting awhile for his chance to start.
Do we still want Shea back under those possible circumstances? I'm just really not sure.
I guess if Shea finishes this season great... most of us would definitely want him back and just take the chance with McCaffrey.
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:20 PM ^
I wouldn't think McCaffrey would be affected by that decision. He is a RS frosh this year, so would still have two years to start after Shea leaves following 2019 season.
Shea should def stay. Playing great...but needs to show consistent command of the whole range of passes b/f leaving
October 23rd, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^
1. Shea is now tied for third with Dwayne Haskins in Heisman betting. I'm guessing he gets a first round grade at the end of the season and heads for the NFL.
3. Absolutely not. Start Shea and get a three score lead before you start giving reps to the backups.
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^
Minnesota royally fucked up. Look what Claeys is doing in Pullman. They could've been the new Iowa.
And neg me all to hell, but I like Scott Frost and Nebraska and think they will supplant Wisconsin as the B1G West bully as soon as next year.
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
1. I saw a projection that had shea going late in the 1st round so I think if that’s the case he’s gone. I think he could use another year but I’d be fine with McCaffrey taking over, I think he’s the best prospect we may ever had
2. Our D-Lind is stacked. Even with Gary and chase leaving. Paye looks great, Uche, Solomon, Kemp, vilain, Dwumfour and hopefully keeping Hinton and potentially Zach Harrison
3. As long as we get a double Rutger aka a Rutgers
4. Frost. Both will be the best coaches they can ever ask for. PJ will win 7-8 games a year and Frost might be a little better at 8-9 with occasional west contention
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
Love Shea and so glad we have him...but he should not declare early. The bomb to DPJ was sweet, but it seems like NFL scouts would want to see him hitting more of the medium and long range stuff to WR's more consistently. Seems like he is still somewhat reticent on that front.
Frost will be fine at Nebraska. He's a good coach and will get it turned around there eventually.
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:35 PM ^
Frost will have A LOT more success that Fleck. Nebraska will be a difficult offense to deal with soon. If they ever get it together on D, they could give Wisconsin a lot of headaches.
But why does Frost still wear a beat-up, floppy, bent bill cap like some college sophomore?
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:40 PM ^
McCaffrey to start versus Rutgers? No way. Shea and his receivers still need to refine things in the passing game. Timing. Seeing open spots in zones. Throwing guy open.
But it would be great to get McCaffrey 3 series and Milton 2 series against Rutgers.
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:59 PM ^
Good format for a thread, btw. Good points for discussion without needing to be earth shattering.
October 23rd, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^
So uh, was anyone else aware that Karan is currently #6 in the nation in rushing yards? (And #2 in the Big Ten.) Surprised me a little bit. He's only played seven games and is 169 yards away from his 1,000 yard goal for the season. Pretty awesome.
October 23rd, 2018 at 9:11 PM ^
Biakabatuka yardage against OSU? Would be cool.
But RB usage is different these days.