Baumgardner: if this continues, more losses will follow, more than one
Nick Baumgardner take on last night's game. Pretty fair IMO. The most "negative" quote is below, he did acknowledge all the positives (coming back, the complete shutdown, etc)
"A team with a vanilla offense and a defense that, save for about 15 plays in critical situations, is lights out. A team that plays with familiar inconsistent mental focus early away from home. What's that going to mean for this group's final record at the end of the season?
Unless Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has better answers than he has shown, it'll mean more struggles — and more losses — against the Big Ten's best."
September 30th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
Well Akron had 3 defensive TD’s, if we had done that, we would have won in a blowout yesterday.
September 30th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Does anyone think we have a shot to beat OSU or Penn St after watching them play last night?
This game was a humbling of expectations.
September 30th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
Well, Michigan doesn't have to go to Happy Valley at night versus PSU. It will be a very different atmosphere.
As for OSU, the past decade indicates it doesn't matter what time or where that game is played.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
Yes.
OSU was absolutely abysmal in the first half. PSU was terrible in the third quarter in particular. Also, James Franklin got outcoached, which isn’t surprising, because James Franklin got outcoached by Brady Hoke, and no matter what you may think about Harbaugh, I’m sure you agree he’s a better coach than Brady Hoke. I expect a Michigan win over PSU, and I expect to be in the game with OSU in the fourth quarter with a chance to win, and we’ll see what happens from there. (I’d “expect a win” over OSU also if the game were at home).
The Northwestern game is a classic example of sequencing bias. If Northwestern had sprinkled its scoring drives throughout the game, the narrative would be very different. The defense allowed 202 total yards on 63 plays, or 3.2 yards per play. The offense managed 376 yards on 66 plays for 5.7 yards per play. Northwestern was in the game due to penalties (real and imaginary) and field position. Both the offense and defense were fine.
For comparison’s sake: OSU got 389 yards of offense on 76 plays, for 5.1 yards per play; PSU got 492 yards on 76 plays for 6.5 yards per play, but 93 yards of that were on a 7-yard completion where KJ Hamler outran the entire Buckeyes secondary. OSU was 4/17 on third down; PSU was 3/17. These were not unstoppable juggernauts on either side of the ball.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Excellent take. In addition to this, people need to STFU about Haskins. Stop cocksucking. His 80% yards came on screens to Dobbins, Hill and that arm punt to B Victor who ran through arm tackles. Haskins my ass.
Patterson on the other hand had a beautiful NFL level throw to Gentry in seam. Does it matter in college? Well it can. Now I hate to be the "wait till next year guy", but I see what harbaugh wants - these type of throws are pretty NFL style/pro style. HARD to do in college. BUT I believe M is getting there and one a QB is in the system - probably Mcaffery since he has been here 2 years - it'll be a meat grinder offense.
Getting there, but still a year away unfortunately, but I can see glimpses.
I suppose one knock is that playmaker WR that makes people miss or has blazing speed like Hamler. That's where PSU and OSU scored points while Michigan relied on prosthke corner route (drop by McKeon there buddy) or seam throw to Gentry.
Alot of these woes would be negated with C Evans jukig or Black added to WR core.
Stay the course.
September 30th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
I wonder if these kinds of articles and responses are simply a function of the times in which we live, where everything is reduced to an existential crisis. I get the fanbase's PTSD and the resultant BPONE from the RR and BH coaching tenures, but before then, wins like the one that the team fought for last night were celebrated with the same kind of relief and enthusiasm that Winovich exuded in his post-game interview. If you haven't seen it, find it. I haven't been able to, but it would be worth a watch. He's answering questions about his and his teammates' performance, breathing hard. But it's not because he's gassed at the end of the game, he's absolutely elated. He looks like he wants to go right back out on the field and play some more--and rightly so.
Yesterday's win was an accomplishment. The defense did something absolutely remarkable. And the offense did just what it needed to do--score more points than the other team. Style points be damned. Yesterday's win was not a harbinger of impending doom. Nor was it a crack in a fragile wall through which a horde of spartans, nittany lions, and buckeyes will flow to molest our children and abuse our wives.
This may just be my avatar speaking, but in times gone by, it was fairly well understood that a team's performance in one game had little, if any, direct impact upon how a team would play in subsequent games. We understood that teams grew over the course of the year, fought through or in spite of injury, could go hot or cold, make boneheaded mistakes in critical moments, or perform the miraculous at the tender age of 19 years old. This was football. It was never cause for an existential crisis.
Perhaps many of us are still suffering from PTSD and are stuck in the BPONE, but I guarantee that the first step out is to choose to take yesterday for what it is, a well-deserved, hard-fought win. Let's see where the team is on the October 13th, 20th, and November 24th before we decide to embrace despair. This team offers a lot of hope.
September 30th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
I guess he didn't listen to Jim's latest press conference. The team displayed tremendous effort, really great. They got out there and competed, and blah blah blah generic bullshit non-answers.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
It’s annoying I get it. I was pissed yesterday too. It’s annoying to watch them come out flat in every single road game, but Northwestern plays Michigan hard every single time. With the exception of 2015. The play calling and Harbaughs stoubern way of trying to run up the middle needs to change.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
Fair and accurate, but also not enough emphasis on the fact that if we continue to play like that, more wins will come. And they will outnumber the losses.
Yesterday was a good win. 85% of teams would not have won that game. Sure we would like to be in the top 5 pr 10 percent. But top 10 to 15 percent year in year out is damn good. Most wins of all time good.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
He’s not wrong. I had little doubt we’d beat Northwestern last night because we seem to always pull it out against them. But they’re Northwestern. We are to Northwestern what OSU is to us. A team we always play tough and have chances to beat, but we fall apart down the stretch, let them back into the game, and ultimately come up just short through either stalled drives or countless unnecessary self-inflicted wounds.
For all the folks who’ve said we’re going to beat the shit out of MSU this year, after watching the game yesterday I have to wonder how in the world you all think we’re going to beat them if we play like that. Much less beat a team of OSU’s caliber. If MSU was at home, okay maybe. But on the road? Against an opponent who prepares for us 365 days a year? If we play them like we play Northwestern, we’re going to embarrassed yet again.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
I agree. But we won't play MSU like we played NW. We obviously came out overconfident and unfocused. Easy to read between the lines with Chase's quotes right after the game to see the team considered it a guaranteed victory. That will not be the case against MSU.
We still very well could lose against MSU though.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I would like to see Michigan pick up the pace of the offense and use more spread concepts.
let the offense be as aggressive as the defense and actually put pressure on other teams
September 30th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
And if we play like we did against Nebraska then we’ll win a lot big games... see I can do it too.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
Wow, what brilliant analysis! The players did not take NW serious enough to start, it was obvious. Chase Winovich basically let that slip in his post game interview. It doesn't take a football savant to know if we play like we did yesterday we will not beat the better teams.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
Hey Guys!
Wasn't it great that the team showed that mettle that could lead to a special season!
I mean coming back from 17 down on the road against a B1G opponent, sure it's a situation you don't want to be in, but it's also nice to know they have it in them.
Wow, I'm just so prou- ........
What's wrong? Why is everybody staring at me?
Do I got a boog?
o wait ........ THIS again ..........
never fuckin mind
September 30th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
So let’s leave out two important factors in both the ND game and the NW game. Road games at late afternoon/night when both opponents had multiple weeks to game plan for our defense. Both games resulted in 2 quick tds after which Don Brown made adjustments and essentially shut down the opposition for the final three quarters. ND is still undefeated and NW is still going to win 9 games this year. Are there issues? Absolutely, however a big comeback win in one and almost in another as we are breaking in a new qb to a complex pro style offense on the road at night to a top 8 team... give these guys some credit, the sky is not falling.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
You think NW is going to win the rest of their games to get to 9 wins?
September 30th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
You have NW beating MSU, ND, Wisconsin, and Iowa? Like stealing candy from a baby.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
It’s frustrating. We are into year four and there doesn’t seem to be much improvement. UM struggled to put up 20 points against NW and Michigan starts a 5-star QB, 5-star WR, and a 1,000 yard rusher.
September 30th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
Least amount of points scored on NW this year.
Thay includes Purdue, Duke, and Akron.
September 30th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^
This. It's year four and we're struggling against Northwestern with a reasonably talented roster. That's why people are starting to question the coaching.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
If Michigan plays bad for stretches of other games they'll lose some. No shit, Nick.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
I think his point was, we've seen this film before. This game does not inspire confidence that our road woes have been overcome this year, nor our penchant for killing penalties.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
About the defense, I have kind of been on the “sure, the defensen is great after the other team goes into a shell and starts sitting on it” rant, but I think there may be more to it than that. I think Brown’s attacking style kind of has our defense flying blind full steam ahead to begin the game when he really needs to play some softer defensive concepts until he sees what the offenses are trying to do. He is winning everything after the first quarter decisively, but the opposing teams “scripted drives” need to start going for field goals and not TDs. Allow our defense a little time to “warm up” before coming with real pressure packages. Maybe solve your problems with ...... observation, instead of aggression for the first few drives.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
Four games in, there isn't a large enough data set to have a lot of confidence in picking up tendencies on tape; so, essentially you go in with incomplete information, especially if the opponent shows a lot of new plays.
They've done a good job making the adjustments defensively in game so far, and now they will have more and more data to help prepare the team during game week.
So, in a way, these weeks have been observation and that should help the defense "start" faster.
September 30th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
The team was really tested yesterday. They responded with a huge comeback and win. I honestly think that will do more for his team and building a winner then an easy win would do. Get guys like Evans and Solomon back and the team is just that much better
September 30th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
Harbaugh has done nothing to improve this offense. Stop blaming everything on his coordinators. If we play like that in the next 4 games we will lose to Wisconsin msu and psu. His offensive play calling is atrocious. Last nights running up the middle reminded me of the monsoon game last year against msu where he wanted to pass the ball on every play. He is one of the most stubborn coaches I have ever seen. Nw is trash dirt trash anyone with eyes should be able to see that. Our team should be ashamed of themselves. Come back my ass. They have got to improve or else this season will be a disaster and Harbaugh can go bye bye
September 30th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
You sound a little unstable, especially since we're just talking about a game played by young adults.
September 30th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
You can enjoy your moral victories while Alabama and Ohio state win more championships. I wonder how many people will agree with you when we lose to osu again. Your the moron that makes me hate our fan base. Losers with no guts to call it what it is. You probably thought RR and Hoke deserved another year lmao
September 30th, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^
Hey, my mail's late.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
the predictability of UM's offense is on full display when NW had 8 men in the box anticipating a run, and instead of checking out of the play, UM ran right into the pile
other team's have exploited the 7-8 yard quick slant on first and second down against a very good UM defense... not sure why UM hasn't tried to employ that strategy into their first few series - and thus force opposing D's to overplay the short routes and possibly free up the deeper hitch and go routes for UM WR's
also a few designed QB draws could also help keep opposing LB's and safeties more off balance
UM's O-line is not going to be one that plows a lot of holes against better defenses - but a more imaginative (nothing crazy, just more 1st a/o 2nd down safe passes) play selection could help the O-line become more effective
September 30th, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^
Do we even have a slant game on offense?
September 30th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Generally I find Nick's writing to be fairly balanced and of better quality than many sportswriters, this article is a bit slanted.
and he's always better writing than with live takes on the radio.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
How many more teams does UM play on the road w 2 weeks to heal up and game plan? Those are huge advantages especially when you are likely to have a bit of a let down (UM coming off a bigger game in its home opener against a bigger name, trash-talking opponent).
Some fans expect these young and impressionable men to be like a pro machine. How many of you are always at the top of your game?
Instead of celebrating the grit and improvements the team showed it's more fun to focus on the negative and let a Sparty sow doubt.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
I am probably one of the few who thinks yesterday was a god send.
First - Adversity, down 17 ON ROAD! Well rested, well coached opponent.
Second - Adjustments on offense and defense. Defense shuts down their offense, Offense starts to move ball
Third - Clutch plays by QB
Fourth - Score Late to take lead
Fifth - Defense stops last opponent possesion
And most importantly, WIN. Keep in mind, App State took PSU to overtime. Yes, the same PSU that outplayed OSU last night. This is the type of game that Michigan loses the last two years. This is the game they needed for confidence going into East Lansing. This team is growing by each week. Those who can't see it, either don't want to, or don't know what they are looking at. Yes, this team is good enough to beat Sparty, WI and PSU but not good enough YET to beat OSU.
September 30th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
But we are seriously out numbered.
Stay strong!
September 30th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Reporter re-stating obvious facts. Check.
September 30th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
After watching OSU vs PSU last night, we looked slow and unprepared for the Big Stage IMO. The Secondaty plays scared, the O Line is sluggish and Shea still waits to long to make a decision IMO.
September 30th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
The secondary appears to be a Huge liability. That does not bode well for the remainder of the season. I see a lot of PI calls and tests. More Watson is needed.
September 30th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Overall, I agree. Doing things like spotting the other team 17 points and committing double digit penalties WILL cost us games if we keep doing it. Championship teams don't do that.
September 30th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
I'm seeing same record as last year.
Maryland won't be a cakewalk. Their overall body of work is as good as Michigan so far; with a much better win.
September 30th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
I think he pretty much hits the nail on the head in this article. Sadly, we are what we are on Offense.
September 30th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^
The only thing that will change these tired, overplayed and lazy narratives is beating MSU and/or OSU. Beyond that nobody cares to dig deeper. '15 MSU was a one in a billion play. '16 OSU was a refereeing disaster even though "refereeing shouldn't matter" idiots will endlessly harp. Beyond that, people just need to temper their fucking expectations. Michigan is a solid team that goes through things even the best do. Beat MSU this year and the narrative will begin to change. Beat Wisconsin and the needle may nudge. Until then, blah, blah, blah, blah.
It is an obvious and tired take, with all due respect. At least Brian, Seth, Ace and the many others here take the time to dig deeper into the numbers. Harbaugh will be here for awhile regardless.
September 30th, 2018 at 5:44 PM ^
Don't forget the 1 in a billion coaching blunder by Minnesota that gifted us the win in 2015 and needing overtime to beat Indiana twice. As you see, a couple plays the other way it all looks even less impressive.
We always talk about how flukey the 2015 MSU loss was (rightfully so), but we never talk about how we weren't in max-protect against an all out rush and no deep man.
Dantonio sent the house hoping for something to go wrong and it worked. That's outcoaching.
September 30th, 2018 at 7:11 PM ^
Actually contrasting it to UCLA and Nebraska is making it look waaaaaay more impressive to me.
September 30th, 2018 at 5:39 PM ^
Penalties did more to hurt us last night AND at Notre Dame than anything else. We probably lost 2 endzone opportunities on those alone, and that's a fourteen point swing we're talking about there. Imagine the score being 34-17 instead of 20-17. Big difference.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^
Baumgardner is a feckless, soulless Michigan troll who gets paid to be so. Please do not patronize him.
September 30th, 2018 at 9:47 PM ^
I remember watching a lot of Carr teams play in a similar way. They would play soft in first half and then second half adjustments would take effect and the team would often pull it out. Very strange how after all these years, this is still happening. Harbaugh needs to get this team firing on all cylinders right from Q1 15:00. They need to treat the beginning of the game as situation critical, every time.
October 1st, 2018 at 8:03 AM ^
This isn’t real surprising. We played like a team ranked in the mid-20s. We still play 4 teams in the top 20, so 7-5 is still a real possibility. Now if we can play like a top 10 team (and I believe we have the talent to do it), then we are looking at a much more special season.