Would we have been better off if Moeller didn't resign?

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on

A big what if question. One of many in Michigan Football history.

buddha

September 11th, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^

I am of the belief there are three pivotal moments in UM football over the last 30 years that I will always look back on and ask “what if”: 1) Moeller’s resignation; 2) Why couldn’t the program take a leap forward after 1997 (and solidify national dominance for years to come); and 3) Why can’t we win big games since Bo died...

there are obviously other questions too, but those are the ones that keep me at night...

Mr. Owl

September 11th, 2018 at 11:59 PM ^

Mo quit because it was the right thing to do.  He shouldn't have put himself in that position.

The Lions messed up by firing him.  They had lucked into a good coach & never gave him a chance.

True Blue Grit

September 12th, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^

He quit because he was forced to do so after being crucified by the media, and the weak U-M administration not willing to ride it out.  Plus Bo was on vacation at the time and would have stepped in to prevent Mo from resigning had he been back in Michigan.  Yes, it was an ugly incident.  But IMO, it didn't justify him losing his job over it especially considering all the things we've seen other coaches get away with that were much worse.  

charblue.

September 12th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^

I don't know, I just think the morality of the times were different then. Not from a Michigan standpoint, but public perception. Moeller could have survived but Bo's shadow still cast deeply over the program. Michigan men don't act this way.

But let's remember, both Gary and Lloyd came as a package deal from Illinois. They were hired about the same time by Bo, with Gary recommending Lloyd to the staff.  Go back and read how Lloyd was essentially hired after a lunch at the Pretzel Bell in Bacon's book on Bo's Lasting Lessons.

You can read about Moeller's departure and Lloyd's ascendency as well. These are coaches cut from Bo's cloth with slightly different views on offense and defense, but not about how to run a team or how to recruit and manage players. So, you're basically talking about a coaching evolution that would have only changed in timeline, not much else.

As for Lloyd staying or leaving, I think he did agree to stay one more year because Henne, Long, Hart and company agreed to come back for their senior year in 2007. But the decision was precipitated by what happened the year before and the seniors decision for one more go-around. Whether that was smart or not given App State is always open to debate but it led us to our current time.

There were always rumors about how long Lloyd wanted to coach. The only strange act for me in Lloyd's tenure at Michigan was the way he dealt with RichRod in such a negative backhanded way, first recommending him as coach and then undercutting him afterward. It almost seemed like he was trying to make a point about philosophical coaching differences in a way that didn't become his character.

Chuck Norris

September 12th, 2018 at 12:54 AM ^

I was very young at the time so I don't remember. Was it surprising that he resigned? Could he have gotten away with not resigning? Would he have been fired if he didn't resign?

Frank Chuck

September 12th, 2018 at 1:48 AM ^

It if my firm opinion that Gary Moeller getting fired is one of the worst things to happen to Michigan Football.

Moeller was doing a number of things:

- most notably, he was trying to recruit lots of speed from Texas and California because he wanted a more dynamic passing attack alongside the powerful rushing attack

- he was more aggressive as a playcaller; Moeller also has the ultra-rare distinction of being a great OC and DC. (Young fans probably don't know this. He coached both sides of the ball at Michigan and was damn good at both.)

-----

I think Moeller would've adopted something closer to the Purdue passing attack of the very late 90s and early 2000s because he would've encountered the spread while vigorously recruiting Texas. (That's basically how Purdue found the spread. When recruiting Drew Brees from Texas, Purdue OC Jim Chaney learned about the spread and was the earliest major adopter of the spread.)

I sometimes wistfully wonder how different Michigan Football would've been if we had a spread passing attack like the one Oklahoma has had for year and years...

It sure would've been nice to be ahead of the curve (re: innovative) on offensive football for once.

FYI: Carr won the 97 National Championship with many players that Moeller recruited. Of course, Carr had a role in building that team since he was the DC before being promoted to HC.

uminks

September 12th, 2018 at 1:59 AM ^

Carr did a great job up until '07. Bo left successors MO and Carr on staff to take over. Carr should have groomed a successor and I think we would not have had such a bad stretch. But in a few years we all may be glad we got Harbaugh and if we did not have the dark years, who knows we may never had gotten Harbaugh.

ShadowStorm33

September 12th, 2018 at 4:58 AM ^

Moeller's teams definitely had talent, and he was an aggressive playcaller, but his last two or three teams seemed to underachieve. That's what makes this an interesting question for those of us too young to really remember the Moeller years; would he have turned it around if he had not been forced out, or was there something inherently flawed about him/his system such that he couldn't get elite results despite elite talent?

DonAZ

September 12th, 2018 at 7:17 AM ^

His record at Michigan:

Year  Overall   Big Ten
1990  9–3        6–2
1991 10–2       8–0
1992  9–0–3    6–0–2
1993  8–4        5–3
1994  8–4        5–3

His most aggressive call was Grbac to Howard when 4th and 1 from the 25 yard line against Notre Dame in 1991.  But I recall being in Michigan Stadium in the 92 and 93 seasons just livid because of some really passive play calling at times.  Very much "play not to lose" type calls.  His 93 and 94 seasons were not great.  

saveferris

September 12th, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^

There was definitely a sense that Michigan was on a downward trend as the Moeller tenure progressed.  As great as the 1991 season was, Michigan's two losses (FSU and UW) were pretty convincing blowouts that just fed the narrative in the national media that Big Ten schools weren't of National Championship caliber.  Further, while Michigan didn't lose a game in 1992, 9 wins to go along with 3 ties was pretty underwhelming to everyone.  Then 16-8 over the next two seasons, which included the Kordell Stewart Hail Mary and just what had become Michigan's penchant for unsteady performances week-to-week.  Also, while recruiting was good under Moeller, we started to see a lot more volatility in player retention at the time along with some player discipline issues popping up with more frequency.

All these factors combined for an atmosphere of unease with Moeller and when he had his meltdown, it gave the University the opening it was looking for to make a change.

Blue Durham

September 12th, 2018 at 10:34 AM ^

It seems to me that the people who are too young to have gone through the Moeller years seem to romanticize about them.  Moeller took over a stacked, very well-coached Michigan football team and promised to "open up" the offense. 

The further removed from Bo his teams were, the poorer they were in fundamentals.  I particularly remember how the team got increasingly worse at blocking and tackling, a staple of Bo's teams.  There was little in the way of game planning and play calling to offset the decline in fundamentals. 

1993 and 1994 were very disappointing years, and there was nothing to indicate that things would improve with the team.  Moeller knew it and felt the pressure leading up to the event that resulted in his resignation.  Few people felt confident in the future prospects of the program at the time under him - there was absolutely no groundswell for the university to retain him.

Moeller's record as head coach didn't inspire much confidence either, despite Bo's support.  Moeller's record at Illinois:

Year  Overall  Big Ten

1977      3-8     2-6

1978   1-8-2    0-6-2

1979   2-8-1    1-6-1

[The previous coach at Illinois Bob Blackman, went 29-36-1 from 1971-1976, with a 5-6 record in 1976] 

As far as I know, Moeller was never offered a college head coaching job again (although he did serve as interim head coach of the Lions once).  I think that says something.

There is nothing about Moeller's teams' performance that makes me think that they would have performed a well as Lloyd Carr's, let alone better.  And Carr was a great representative of the university.

Maize and Luke

September 12th, 2018 at 5:32 AM ^

Given his character flaws, I would say no. We'd probably be in the middle of a scandal or trying to recover from one. 

The Lions definitely should have kept him. They'd be the Patriots 2.0

bacon1431

September 12th, 2018 at 7:08 AM ^

I don’t think so. Moeller won 7+ conference games once at Michigan in 5 seasons and two seasons where we won 6 conference games. Carr had 5 7+ win conference seasons in 13 years, and 5 where we won 6. 

Lloyd also had an incredible record against top teams on the first half of his coaching career. 11-1 vs top 10 teams from 1995-1999. That’s pretty amazing. Moeller was 7-5-1

bacon1431

September 12th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

Means we fell on our faces against some mediocre teams. Both Moeller and Carr had 13 losses in their first 5 seasons (only 5 for Moeller). Moeller lost to 9 ranked teams and 4 unranked teams. Carr lost to 10 ranked teams and 3 unranked teams. This would be more of a bugaboo for the second half of Carr's career - losing games we shouldn't have. Over his last 8 years, we lost to 11 unranked teams, and 5 additional games against teams ranked in the 20s. 

Moeller's two worst seasons as HC were his last two seasons. Carr's two worst seasons as HC were his first two (until 2005). So Moeller seemed to be trending down and Carr was trending up. I mean, 10 of his thirteen seasons, we won 6+ games in conference play. Since then, we've had 4 and only 1 7+ win conference season (and that was a season in which we had 9 conference games. Lloyd only had 8 each year). 

Personally, I think alot of people are choosing Moeller because there's a "what if" factor there. We don't know for sure what he would have done had he stayed as HC. He could have continued to trend downward, or he could have won the conference 8 of the next 10 years. With Carr, we know that the second half of his career was filled with alot of missed opportunities.