Was it as bad as we think?
I was at the game and it felt like a train wreck. However, watching it live you don’t see as much as you do when you watch the tape. I finally got a chance to watch the game. I came away thinking it wasn’t quite as bad as I thought at first. There were so many plays here or there that could’ve made a huge difference. I don’t feel like Notre Dame outclassed us at all, it certainly wasn’t like 2014. The problem is, every single big game we have feels like the same thing. One play or two plays or a handful of plays here or there that the other team makes and we don’t make. Does anyone feel any better about this game after letting it brew for a couple days? Or is the sky still falling? I’m not really sure what to think at this point.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^
"We're going to surprise and crush Western on Saturday"
Good lord, look where we are as a program and fanbase. This guy is pumped about maybe beating a MAC team.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
Well we looked like butt in the noncon last year, so that would be an improvement.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
My thoughts exactly. A number of posts here were ripping MSU and PSU for sloppy wins against lesser competition and now the fan base is like "hang 50 on WMU" we'll show em.
SMDH
September 4th, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
That's a weird conclusion for you to reach. I'm saying we looked horrible in the noncon last year which was a harbinger of things to come. This year we looked poor in our 1st game and everyone thinks the sky is falling. I'm saying I suspect we're still a very solid team and we're going wipe the floor with Western just like a solid team would
Wait till Wednesday or Thursday and the Hot Take Mafia will be out in full force predicting a close game or maybe even a Western upset. It's not going to be that way on Saturday
September 4th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
From the ESPN box score that's up right now, we did outgain them in this game too FWIW.
This loss is 100% about the narrative and tackles. People saw how Runyan and JBB performed and are assuming that the season is lost (which, may end up being the case). The narrative is the idiotic "Harbaugh can't win big games" argument.
Florida sucked last year, but it was a Top 25 matchup to start the year on national television. That was a big game. How about beating a Top 10 Wisconsin team in 2016? That seemed like a big game, too.
At the end of the day, we're talking about two damn plays. If Blake O'Neill doesn't fumble the snap against MSU in 2015 and JT Barrett is marked short (whether he was or not is a debate), then Harbaugh made the playoffs in 2016 and is 3-4 against ND, OSU, and MSU and nobody is giving HAWT TAKEZ calling for him to be fired.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
Dude, nobody gives a shit about all these IF's. It's such a tired and overplayed argument.
"IF Hawkins makes that interception"
"IF Winovich doesnt get a roughing the passer"
"IF the tackles played better"
Out of control, win the damn game. No more IFs
September 4th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
I upvoted you for the "sometimes you have to win the damn game" sentiment.
But if you look at a loss and DON'T think about "here's how we could have won that game", then nobody can help you and you'll be very unhappy for a long time in life.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
I agree that those two plays (O'Neill fumble and Barrett's first down) are HUGE in the Harbaugh narrative. Michigan could pretty easily be 3-3 against MSU and OSU.....but they are not.
I reviewed the box score too and was surprised at how close the game was statistically. Total yards, First Downs, TOP.....all were very close. Michigan fell short in fourth down conversions (0-3) and the critical nature of the penalties. In retrospect, the game wasn't as lopsided as it appeared while watching. I don't dispute for a second that Michigan's OL got beat up, but Michigan's D put a beating on ND, too (particularly in the second half).
It's hard to overstate how critical the Brad Hawkins situation was. He was in perfect position to intercept (or at least knock down) that TD pass but he was out-hustled by Finke. It was my impression during the early stages of the game that Notre Dame just WANTED it more. I can think of at least three different instances where the ND player just went after the pass more than the Michigan player. That's pretty shocking coming into a game like this. I don't know what more they could possibly need to motivate them.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
I’ve been pretty critical of the team and pessimistic the past 2 year, but I think I’ve been very patient with Harbaugh. I haven’t called for his head once.
That being said, we need to start winning these fucking games. If this season ends up 8-4 or worse, it might be time to look elsewhere. But the season is far from lost at this point.
September 4th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^
"If only these four or five crucial things had gone differently, then things would be...different!"
Yeah, no shit. Too bad it doesn't matter.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
I'd be with you if this game existed in a bubble. Context-free I wouldn't be disappointed in the result. ND might be legit good, the offense had a lot to put together in a short time, some first-game jitters on both sides of the ball, it was a night road game. However, the HOW we lost is. . . ugh. As pessimistic as I am, I'm not usually this down, but it doesn't take much football smarts to see how ineffective the pass pro was, so context matters.
Yet again we simply do not have offensive tackles, we knew we didn't, and just like last season, there's nothing to be done about it except grind through the pain. But as a fan there's an element of hopelessness in, "We lost this game because of a problem that simply can't be fixed this season." There's no ask again later; the reason we lost this game isn't going to get better, because there are no quick fixes to roster holes.
Someone has a bit of shortness of breath, you usually don't bring them in for chest x-rays. That'd be an overreaction, sure. Someone who's struggled with pneumonia for years has a bit of shortness of breath, you absolutely bring them in for chest x-rays and that is not an overreaction. This game basically validated our worst fears so while I'm not with the "EVERYTHING SUCKS FIRE HARBAUGH" trolls, mainly because I don't tie my emotional well-being to the efforts of some college guys who don't even know I exist, it's shaping up to be a long season. I mean. . . that tackle play is now on tape.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
I've stated before that it's one game, the team has talent, and it's way too early to write the season off. Never been a fan of opening with ND either at home or on the road. First games need to be against cupcakes so you can work the bugs out of the system, because there are always things found lacking when you line up against another team.
Last year, our highest offense point total was 35 against Maryland. We scored 33 against Florida, but that included 7 points by the defense. We were playing starters deep into the fourth quarter in most of the easy games. So, as stated above, we'll learn something from the cupcake games over the next 2 weeks. If the offense continues to struggle, then we should all get worried. If they can't get the second and third string at least a quarter of playing time, then be worried. If they can work out the kinks and run up some scores in the high 40s and 50s, then things are looking up.
As for the defense, holding opponents to 10 points or less means were doing just fine.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
No, our fanbase overreacts to absolutely everything (both wins and losses) so this response is exactly as expected.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
I think we'll be alright and will probably improve as the season goes on like Penn State did in 2016. There's a lot of good parts and pieces here and a start on the road, in a night game environment is tough. Obviously disappointing, but this team looks good to me.
Seems like every break went for ND Saturday. The stinkin jump ball that should've been picked. The 50% passer Wimbush miraculously dropping in a few perfect deep balls to get out of 3rd down situations. Then it seemed like every promising drive we had got nerfed by something dumb (botched hold on a FG, PA on 2nd & goal from the 2, Gentry not reeling in that 3rd down TD pass after)
Very disappointing to look so inept, but there were enough flukey things that make me think we're a good bit better than we looked. You can envision a few ways we win that game even with the tackle spots being black holes. We'll be good, but I don't know how far we're going to get without functional tackles
September 4th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
Is it just my maize colored glasses, or do other people perceive that whenever there's a 50/50 situation in a game it almost NEVER goes our way?
September 4th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
For this game, the 50/50s did go ND's way. It seems like in the last 10 years, we've had the 50/50s go our way against Minnesota, Indiana, Notre Dame (Rich Rod, Gardner's lights out game), Northwestern (the slide field goal; the Roundtree falling catch) and the lesser teams while MSU, Iowa, and OSU get the 50/50s against us.
Whether that is post-hoc revisionism based on game outcome or just the fact that when you win the 50/50 balls/calls you're going to win the game, I don't know
September 4th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
That's a really good point.
If we win the 50/50's against teams that are worse than us (hello 2015 game vs. Minnesota!) and seem to lose all the 50/50's against teams that are better than us, I think that tells you that the 50/50's aren't what turns the tide.
I'd conveniently forgotten about a lot of our favorable bounces.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
It never goes our way. Being unclutch is in Michigan DNA.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
Jordan Poole says hi.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
All I need to know, Is should I continue making the "Shea for Heisman" website???
/s
September 4th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
Sky is not falling for me just disappointed again for all the reasons above. How can our D let Wimbush run at all? We knew he would run? But to be the best you have to make those plays that we just can't seem to make. Not throwing in the towel and I am no coach so I am just going to sit back, watch the game, and hope that crazy bastard gets us to the promised land we have been missing since Carr retired.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
I'll be interested to see the UFR. From my amateur view, it looked like Chase and Gary were living in the backfield, but the DTs got so little pressure that it always left huge gaps between the guards and tackles for Wimbush to step into or scramble out of. If I'm right, I'm not sure what the remedy is there. Have the DEs try to power in at 5 yards instead of going 7-10 deep?
If we had Glasgow or Hurst still, I bet the entire game looks a lot different because Wimbush would've been getting eaten alive by the ends
September 4th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
I spent much of the game flustered at the gaping lanes left open by what I thought was hyper-aggressive edge rushes that flushed Wimbush out of the pocket without proper contain. As an amateur football technician, I never thought to look at the lack of interior DL push as a potential cause of the gaping holes. And now I feel bad for throwing mental shade at our DE's if this was largely an interior DL issue.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I don't know if I agree. I the DTs aren't getting push you really should be cognizant of that fact as a DE and stop trying to go around every single time too.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
I'm definitely seeking someone with more football acumen to help answer this question. I think I am spoiled by our recent string of awesome interior DL who would blow shit up on a frequent basis. But the ultimate answer is probably more nuanced than placing blame solely on either the edge rushers or interior DL - I'm sure it's a play-by-play answer. The UFR's have helped me understand situational football immensely, so I'm looking forward to the analysis.
September 4th, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
Maybe we just didn't give their interior OL enough credit going in. Two 5th year seniors that are expected to go in the draft this year. ND was counting on that being their advantage and it was. Outside of Wisconsin we may not see an interior OL that good all year.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Hawkins makes a pick on that 2nd TD and we get the hold right coming out of the half, then Michigan wins 20-17 if all else holds. Our defense played their butts off in the 2nd half. Our offense put up 307 yards while giving back almost 50 yards in negative rushing (assuming this is almost all sack yardage). How many games do you put up 300 yards and score 10 points?
First week of the year too. Gotta stress that.
[EDIT] Rushing Stats:
Higdon: 21 rushes +77 -5 (Net 72)
McCaffrey: 3 rushes +10 -0 (Net 10)
Peoples-Jones: 1 rush +7 -0 (Net 7)
Evans: 2 rushes +2 -1 (Net 1)
Will Hart: 1 rush +0 -11 (Net -11)
Patterson: 5 Rushes +11 -32 (Net -21)
So 43 of the 49 negative rushing yards were sacks/FG muffs.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
First week of the year is an important point that can't be stressed enough.
Remember that Bo eventually insisted that Notre Dame NOT be scheduled as the first game after he lost a few with teams that were not prepared (not to mention the difficult in game planning when there's no film).
September 4th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
Of course it isn’t as bad as people are reacting. We are Michigan. We overreact to everything.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
No. Michigan left about 10 points on the field--the botched FG hold, Patterson's sack to take UM out of FG range, and the terrible decision to call PA from the 2-yd line on 2nd down that led to a sack and an eventual FG after Gentry couldn't make a contested catch in the end zone. Further, ND got 4 bonus points when the Winovich late hit gifted ND a TD instead of a FG.
Now, clearly the in-game calls change if ND isn't winning by the 11-14 point lead they carried for most of the 2nd half, but the UM mistakes made a close game look more dominant for ND.
Notre Dame is a probable Top Ten-ish team, which is a tough game on the road early in the season. Look at UGA last year--the team that was 1 blown coverage away from the national championship barely won on the road in Week 2. UM is probably going 9-3 this year, but at least the team is competitive in losses. It's not good, but it's not Hoke/RichRod bad either.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
In a vacuum, no. In the context of the same idiotic coaching and execution errors dooming the team in a big game yet again, yes.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Could not agree with this more. If it would've looked like there was any kind of offensive game plan to play to our personnel it would be different but none of the offseason coaching moves have made any difference. There's no excuse for the lack of a hurry-up at the end and the delay of game to start the second half pretty much sums up the last two years with this offensive staff.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Defensively it felt like the general bloody mindedness of the universe (or a mistimed jump by Hawkins) and one dumb play by Winovich from a 13 point, 290 yard effort. Which is good to great.
Offensively we're not explosive and can move the ball OK until there is a catastrophic mistake, usually by a tackle. And we can't recover.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
I hate to be "that guy," but this has been discussed at great lengths in other threads. Personally, it's not as bad as some think. Yes, the o-line has issues, but we handed that game to them in the first quarter. The offense put together some decent drives, until they shot themselves in the foot. Moreover, the passing game was more effective than any time last season. (More completions and yards in a game than any game last year).
The troubling area to me is that Michigan teams under Harbaugh keep making mental errors that lose us games. Why is that and how is it remedied? Is it not coaching enough discipline and fundamentals? Are the players playing tentatively (especially on O) because they are afraid to make mistakes and are under too much pressure? Are the schemes too complicated? Whatever it is, it needs to be fixed.
What's clear to me is that Harbaugh's teams don't know how to win yet. (And I'm not sure the staff does either). We can debate offensive game planning till we are blue in the face, but until players make plays, stop the mental mistakes, and play with more discipline, they won't take the next step. However, I saw enough positives from the ND game to think we are heading in the right direction after last year. But again, it's primarily the mental mistakes that are losing us games. The staff needs to find a way to correct that because whatever Harbaugh is doing, it's not working on that front.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
I'll also add...two comments from players in the last week lead me to believe there could be some discipline issues at hand.
1. Chase's comments about the captaincy. He said to the press that it was a "popularity contest." I am sure that pissed off the captains and players who voted for them. That's an insult to your teammates. I can guarantee you there were some eye rolls and talk in the "dorm rooms" about that. They are kids after all.
2. Gary commenting on Edwards tweet. Rashan, didn't say anything bad and was standing up for his brothers, but there's no need to comment - even if asked. Harbaugh should make it known to players that "external noise" is not to be addressed. It doesn't do anything to help the team. Sure, it's a minor thing taken out of context, but these are "red flags" that point to discipline issues. Maybe, Gary was asked about it before Harbaugh could address it, but he should know better. There's nothing to gain from it.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
Speaking of mental mistakes, I agree they've been a huge problem and one that I thought we wouldn't see when JH was hired.
I banked on him recruiting (and getting) the same type of players that he had at Stanford. Brilliant guys that made up any physical shortcomings by having a really high football IQ and ability to think on the fly.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Agree. I thought JH would bring discipline and smart play to Michigan. It's head scratching. Who knows what's really behind it, but part of me thinks he is trying to coach college kids like they are professionals. It just won't work at this level. Their games and mental approach aren't there yet. Not to mention they are student athletes who can't arrive at 6AM and stay at the football facilities all day and night.
It's like the school teacher who is ambitious with their syllabus for the year, but realize the kids don't have the skills and knowledge yet to do it all.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
The sky isn't falling but it's pointless to even say that because you'll get louder angry voices that will say Harbaugh needs to be fired, Michigan's a bad team, etc.. Facts or reasoning be damned.
Harbaugh is the guy for this program. If you think otherwise, there's no reasoning with you.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
I would love to play Notre Dame again in the playoffs, it is actually possible too. So its not that bad. I dont know how good ND really is. They could be great team this year, or they could get 4 losses. If ND is a really good team this year and goes 10-2 then this game means nothing when considering the playoffs.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^
I will be curious to see the defense UFR. Specifically, I was among those that complained about 1) Hill starting the game with one or more busts; and 2) Don Brown not realizing that man to man left the defense open to wide open spaces for QB running, like on 3rd and 18. Watched the game again Sunday morning, and it looked to me like Don started in zone. On one of the first plays Hill was expecting a safety behind him, and when that did not happen he ran after the receiver. He looked lackadaisical, but if the play was in zone, he was not lackadaisical. Brown then dropped the zone quickly, leading to the QB runs against man coverage. So the defensive failure was that they tried zone and it failed badly and quickly, and was discarded for a problematic man coverage. Did anybody else see that? Wondering if I am right or not.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
This was my exact initial reaction to the first Hill "gaffe". Maybe it was a busted zone coverage issue? But I quickly discarded that notion since we play man so frequently. This issue is exactly why I love the UFR's.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
It is "not as bad as we think" while, at the same time, being "worse than we could ever imagine".
That is the Quagmire of most UofM fans.
gigity ....gigity
September 4th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
The problem I have is that we struggled in pass protection again. Our team will not improve to any significant degree unless this improves.
However, overall, the game was far from the route that some of my coworkers are making it out to be.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
it wasn't good. i dont think ND is a top 10 team. i do see 8-4/9-3 which is what i always thought
September 4th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
9-3 is on the optimistic side of things. 8-4 is still achievable.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
9-9 and 0-17 are reaching “28-for-28” status around here. The next few games should take care of the 9-9 (but folks are going to yell 10-9 or 11-9 because that is what they do.)
Because of the loss to ND, there is no margin for error. MSU is an absolute must-win game. If we lose that, the “Harbaugh is on the hot seat” noise will be deafening. That affects recruiting and that is the lifeblood of the program.
My fear is that we play Wisconsin first and their big uglies will tenderize our defensive line, giving the MSU line an advantage. This really is a schedule from hell.
September 4th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
MSU is a must win game 110%
September 4th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Pre-season I thought, as did everyone else, that if we had serviceable OTs we would be a force to reckon with. Our OTs were not very good. Runyan missed a lot of blocks and JBB wasn't much better. Even Ruiz biffed a block partially causing Shea's interception.
The panic is that we've had one decent O-line in the last 9 years (2011). Confidence level in fixing it is low.
We have two "tune-up" games to get ready for Nebraska, Northwestern and Maryland who should be beatable, but can't be overlooked. Then we have Wisconsin, MSU and Penn State. Can we get better quickly? We could be looking at 8-5 or 7-6 if we don't get the ship righted on the O-line.
The defense also had trouble with Wimbush. I'm thinking that is an aberration, but it throws gas on the fire of worry.
But it did look better on re-watching. Fortunately MSU didn't look very good (or Utah State looked good) and though I didn't watch it, PSU had a lot of trouble with App St. (So pissed PSU didn't loose so that we could never hear of App State again.)
September 4th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
It's less the individual result than the overall trend that concerns me. Time will tell. Shea Patterson looked very good when he had time to throw.
September 4th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
The sky is not falling. I stated it Saturday night after the loss. I think we have a special QB in Patterson. We've got two glaring problem positions on the OL that will get better, IMO, how much better is really the question. We have a talented defense and a great DC. I hold out hope for a great season. Win the first available statement game in conference and parlay that into a B1G championship. Fuck it, why not be positive? It causes more stress and takes so much more mental bandwidth to be negative, angry and bitter.