Searchbits IX: Dramamine Time
like the mean streak, this coaching search will jerk you around
HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH: HOORAY. I hope you guys like rollercoasters. Yesterday it was all sun and butter, because when the money comes in someone's hearing something:
Jim Harbaugh 2015 Coaching odds suspended after a stream of bets on Michigan moved them from 8-1 to 2-1 yesterday afternoon
— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 6, 2014
Note that this is not a "who will be Michigan's coach" prop, it's a "where will Harbaugh be" prop. The sportsbook had a low maximum bet on this event (2k) but had so much Harbaugh-to-M action coming in that they couldn't set the odds high enough to discourage it, and thus yoinked the bet.
At the same time this was going on the insider rumble got near-fervent at Rivals, partially from unofficial sources, partially from official ones. For the first time it really felt like it was happening; I heard some chatter that Schlissel and the regents have been brought into discussions. That implies that negotiations reached the part where numbers are involved.
The only pause came last night when Sam re-iterated that a couple of his sources were skeptical, and even he later said he thought Harbaugh was probable. Hooray! Stack the pancakes and get the syrup catapult out, we're having Harbaugh for brunch!
HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH: HELP. Then this morning the NFL guys weighed in with the same thing they've been saying since it became clear Harbaugh was headed somewhere else after the season: nope. Many of them did so.
The problem with these assertions is that many of them contain nonsense within them. CBS:
While many are connecting Harbaugh to the opening at Michigan, where he was a star quarterback, sources close to the coach maintain he is not interested. Harbaugh's family has close ties to outgoing Michigan coach Brady Hoke and Harbaugh is much more interested in NFL possibilities.
Ties to Brady Hoke are not a reason to not take the Michigan job. I'm sure these guys are all getting information from people who know something about something, but they seem to just repeat it without considering whether or not that source is reliable in this matter. The story goes on to assert that Steven Ross "could" end up being the primary competition with the Raiders for his services when people have reported that his focus at the moment is getting him to Ann Arbor—and away from the Jets.
So I'm skeptical of that, but poke an NFL insider today and he's saying Harbaugh to Michigan ain't happening. Ian Rapoport said Michigan "reached out" and "left convinced he wants to be an NFL coach"; FWIW he is the guy who asserted a few weeks ago that Ross wanted Harbaugh at M.
So the usual, with all sides escalating. Someone's going to look dumb.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
MORE PLAN B STUFF. Michigan is still focused heavily on Harbaugh and will be until he gives them a flat no. But they're not putting all their eggs in one basket, which is an improvement from the 2007 search (no basket, eggs anywhere and everywhere) and the 2011 search (basket reads "HARBAUGH!!! hoke i guess). I get the impression that Michigan is contacting a lot of people, either because it's a good idea or because it's the ultimate smokescreen.
So I have a series of unconfirmed reports, all about different people who have had the proverbial feelers extended to them. Along with the guys mentioned yesterday (Whittingham, Mullen, Addazio, Mora) I've had blips on David Shaw, Mora (again) and even Gary Patterson. Patterson is unlikely unless his team misses the playoff—we'll know that today. Previous reports that he'd flat turned M down are premature but likely to be correct in the long run.
And… ugh… people keep talking about Greg Schiano, who Florida passed over for a third year coach with a 7 million dollar buyout and Nebraska passed over for a 62-year-old. Scout's Brian Dohn reports($) that Schiano is making a "strong push for the job" after turning Michigan down in 2007; it should be noted that the strong push is coming from the Schiano side of things… which like yeah duh. I haven't heard anything about the interest being reciprocal.
In re: Schiano's attractivness. Nope! He had one really good year in 2006, and then spent the next five years going 16-19 in the post-defection Big East. He deserves credit for rebuilding Rutgers, but his star has collapsed since he seemed plausible in 07.
ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MULLEN. I forgot to include a link to a Matt Hinton piece on Grantland describing the various ways in which Mullen has cobbled together a top ten team from discarded ham and kumquat-flavored toothpaste. Hinton includes a couple of charts that demonstrate how impressive Mullen's season has been and why he's liable to GTFO of Starkville at the first reasonable opportunity:
I cross-referenced every player listed this week on official depth charts released by Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M against their original recruiting rating, and on paper, at least, the difference between the top of the division and the ostensible bottom is a yawning chasm:
Mullen’s only five-star signee, sophomore defensive lineman Chris Jones, is listed as a backup; of the four-stars on hand, only four of the eight are listed as starters, all on defense: senior defensive tackles P.J. Jones and Kaleb Eulls, sophomore linebacker Beniquez Brown, and senior safety Justin Cox. Everyone else on the no. 3 team in the nation, by the standards of the rest of its own division, arrived as an afterthought.
And this is a considerable improvement on MSU's previous recruiting! It is super-hard to maintain against that kind of recruiting thunder in a division where Hugh Freeze might be the worst coach. (Seriously. Who is the worst coach in the SEC West?)
And Scout's Jamie Newberg says "he just knows" that Mullen would leave for the Michigan job if offered it.
CUMONG MAN. The hotdog rumors will not die:
One bit of Michigan search info I can share--there’s one well-known current head coach who believes Michigan is going to hire Sean Payton.
— Ben Estes (@benestes91) December 5, 2014
Last January Payton signed an $8-million-per-year extension that extends to the 2017-18 season. It makes him the highest-paid coach, period. Buying him out of that and giving him a commensurate contract is a financial commitment on par with those debunked Godfather offers, and presumes he wants to leave the Saints franchise he's been with since 2006. Also, all he has to do is suck less than the Falcons to make the playoffs this year. This doesn't pass basic common sense.
CUMONG MAN II. Gil "Thorpe" Brandt has a case to make for Schiano:
My wildcard for #Michigan is Greg Schiano, might even be front-runner. Will get excellent recommendations from high-powered #NFL coaches
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 5, 2014
It is not a good case. The NFL does not like him one bit. Also: remember how we thought Nebraska's search was nuts? They could have hired Schiano in a hot second. Schiano is the only way Michigan can come out of this hiring troika with a guy the other two definitively passed on.
Etc.: Les Miles tells a recruit he's not going anywhere. I think he thinks that's true because he thinks he's not going to get a sniff. Here is a comprehensive rundown of everything that's been said so far.
December 7th, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^
I remember Harbaugh saying NO after the Orange Bowl a few years ago...when I see that again from him then I will figure these NFL guys to be right.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:15 PM ^
If Harbaugh says no and Schiano is plan B, we might as well freeze ourselves for three years and come out when the new AD is doing their search. This is especially dumb considering Mullen would come to UM according to several reports. Hackett should be giving spread coaches some love if he isn't already and this is all media BS (likely).
December 7th, 2014 at 1:56 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
Probably nonsense - but supposedly Mora "wants" the Michigan job: http://www.chatsports.com/michigan-wolverines/a/Insider-Rumor-Jim-Mora-Wants-To-Be-Michigans-Next-Coach-10-2-6053
December 7th, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
Plan A: Harbaugh
Plan B: Mora.
I can live with that.
December 7th, 2014 at 5:54 PM ^
I can live with Mora too, I just don't put a lot of stock in these internet rumors.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^
Excellent update Brian. Who knows what is really happening--but the fact that there is SO LITTLE actual intel on the search seems like a good sign. I think Hackett (and Ross?) are doing whatever they can behind the scenes to let Jim Harbaugh know we want him and will do what it takes to bring him home to Ann Arbor. I agree with you that they are simultaneously vetting their Plan B options. Now that the regular season is over and the playoff lineup is set a couple of those options--like Stoops or Patterson--might could be Plan 1A options??? In any event I have a good feeling about this search so far compared to 2007 and 2010--we're not doing anything obviously stupid and we seem to be competently, diligently, and patiently evaluating our options before making a final decision. That's more than I can say about Florida or Nebraska, neither of who hired someone we would even consider good Plan B's! Go Blue!
December 7th, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^
Why in the world did Florida pull the trigger so quickly?
All these top level options for us that are in the rumor mill - Stoops, Mora, etc - are all people that Florida did not want, or people that said no to Florida? Or, of more concern, they are just baseless rumors and Florida already knows they are not available.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
I think we should kidnap that old Kansas State coach - Snyder- keep him in Ann Arbor. He might not notice this and think he is still in Kansas.- and we could win the Big 10 without paying much.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
Not one person in the AD is even mentioning Schiano's name as a possible replacement. Yet we get "reports" from all of Jimmy Sexton's cronies (read: NFL washouts and media puppets) that he is a "leading candidate."
Go fuck yourself, media people who fall for this shit and regurgitate it as fact. It makes UM look bad to even be mentioned in the same sentence as Greg Schiano.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^
I can't think of a worse hire.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
Charlie Weis.
December 7th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
I am still troubled by his offensive calls while I was at TU in Philly. His offense takes manball to neanderthal levels.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again...if it's Adazio, I'm not renewing.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
I may be a pessimist, but Sam's sources that recently said that it will be much harder for Michigan to pull Harbaugh from the NFL than they previously thought seem to corroborate the NFL guys saying that he is not coming back to UM.
I think it makes sense that Harbaugh would be intrigued with the idea of coming back to Michigan and thus, might be telling his UM friends that he is considering it, rather than flat out saying that he is not interested. But I think this is false hope. I just hope that it isn't Shiano.
December 7th, 2014 at 4:00 PM ^
"could be much harder for Michigan to pull Harbaugh from the NFL..." could just mean that it will take a premium price tag.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
I have the Mean Streak to thank for a pinched sciatic nerve and over a year of intense pain.
I'll just go ahead and cool story bro myself. Carry on...
December 7th, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^
December 8th, 2014 at 4:21 PM ^
usually due to sloth followed by overdoing something. One time it was due to the Mean Streak, when I was 16. I won't go near wooden coasters.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^
Because he isn't and probably shouldn't be a clear #2. Too much baggage.
December 7th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^
because both suck. Addazio in particular is unqualified.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^
where Jim Harbaugh resides as our next coach until I see him in a video holding up a current newspaper with a bold headline "NO GO, BLUE" over his photo while confirming it verbally. Proof of "NO" x 2.
I'm tired of all the "sources." Hell, we could all probably list some kind of "source" who thinks they know something. A friend texted me today that her son, who used to work in the football department, heard that Gary Pinkel of Missouri is a front-runner. I just tapped "Delete."
December 7th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^
Sometimes we forget that people on the inside can make stuff up, too.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
I just hope that if I'm sitting in front of Searchbits X, XI, XII or whatever it will be next Sunday, it's because Harbaugh has definitely agreed via back channels and we're simply waiting for the NFL to wrap up to make it official. If it's not going to be Harbaugh, I would have to think those behind this process definitively know by now, so let's move on and get the new leader of the Michigan football program in place so he can get to work (PLEASE NO Schiano or Addazio).
What a shitty weekend. NJIT debacle, OSU annihilates Wisconsin and gets to #4, and inconclusive but not heartening Harbaugh news. Please provide optimism, Wings and Lions...
December 7th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^
make any sense such as Schiano. Why fire Hoke then turn around hire a guy that has a similar resume? Also if you are Harbaugh do you want to take over an NFL franchise that's likely a project needing 3-4 years or longer to make competitive? Or go to a college team with lots of talent that's maturing? The best argument for the NFL however is that the super bowl is a more appealing prize to go after. But then returning to michigan for 3 years raising the program then going back to the NFL could be another path to the same end depending on the prospects of available team's at the time. Who knows...we will find out soon enough.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:53 PM ^
I think Mullen would come to UM if Harbaugh passes, but I do take issue with the Hinton piece regarding the star ratings because it ignores the fact that a lot of those teams have very young collections of highly-ranked recruits. This isn't basketball where freshmen usually step in and can dominate; there is a real advantage with having older, lower-ranked kids. I mean, if you look at the smae Phil Steele chart, you see the following in terms of age of team:
Team | Rank |
---|---|
Miss. St. | 5 |
Auburn | 6 |
Ole Miss | 26 |
Arkansas | 47 |
Texas A&M | 90 |
Alabama | 107 |
LSU | 119 |
So while MSU is doing more with less, they are also doing it with MUCH older kids than schools like Alabama and LSU. Probably explains why, until this year, they haven't been able to stay close with the best teams in the SEC West.
Mullen is a good coach, but I don't see why we are ignoring his history of okay coaching because he won 10 games for 1 year with one of the oldest teams in the country.
December 7th, 2014 at 4:32 PM ^
This is a good point.
The biggest variable in everyone's evaluation of Mullen is how you take the quality of his competition into account versus other candidates. Even most advanced models have a difficult time taking into account how bad the teams he beat were and how good the teams he lost to were.
So to bring it back to your point, the pro Mullen crowd would disagree that he has a history of okay coaching. I'd say he pretty solidly outperformed MSU's historical average. This year put him on the map as a guy who could make it big, but I think he was already a solid candidate before this year.
Besides, look at the other plan B's that are popping up. Does anyone really want Schiano or Addazio over Mullen. Like, really? I just don't see the need for having that debate. The only real debate in plan B's is Mullen versus Les.
December 7th, 2014 at 7:02 PM ^
Oh, I think he's the best Plan B option out there, and I'd prefer him over Les. But I take issue with the argument that Mullen is a stud coach who can make Michigan great a la Meyer, Patterson, etc. He's not, and while he's coached better at Miss St. than their historical norm, it still (a) hasn't been amazing, just better than below-.500, and (b) it has been remarkably unremarkable in that MSU basically beat the dregs and never had much success against the better teams in the conference until this year. As noted by alum96 in one of his diaries, Beilima at Arkansas has beaten as many "big name" SEC teams in his 2 years there as Miss. St. did in, what, 6, and outside of Florida a couple years ago, all of those wins have come this year.
I think Mullen would be the best coach available, but I'm just not sold that you aren't getting anything better than the guy he is now, which is 8-ish wins and the random 10-11 win season on a good year. That's basically late-era Carr, which is fine but feels like Michigan stuck in neutral while the rest of the country keeps moving on.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:56 PM ^
I'm just waiting for the job posting so I can apply as I have every search since Lloyd retired.
- Reads MgoBlog and participates with the community.
- Carries dog-eared copy of The Essential Smart Football in back pocket.
- Has a solid understanding of how a clock works in relation to time and how this information can be useful.
- May or may not be a Michigan Man depending on your definition and preference.
- Will walk to AA (may take me 6-8 hours).
Anyone heard any good inside information on my candidacy?
December 7th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
is Les Miles. Give everyone in the division exactly the same talent level and Les's lack of clock management and taste for weird negative-expectation gambles probably sinks him.
But wait! He won a national championship! And went to another NCG (against a Bama team LSU had already beaten)!
That does count for quite a bit, but recall too that 2007 was the flukiest confluence of events to get LSU into the championship game. More to the point, LSU is often very good because they recruit extremely well. Most good recruiters would do well in Louisiana, but Miles has done extremely well. That is part of the coaching package, and you have to give Miles credit for it. It more than makes up for his game-day coaching.
His program develops this talent well too, but so does everyone in the SEC West, so that's at best a wash.
December 7th, 2014 at 6:21 PM ^
There is more to coaching than just gameday strategy. Les's program consistently develops players well, with the sole exception perhaps of QB. He doesn't just recruit well, he turns those guys into excellent players. Under Hoke we did the former but not the latter.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
And would Hackett just wait around in the twisting in the wind case? I don't think so.
December 7th, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^
If Harbaugh had actually left Michigan representatives with the impression that he wouldn't leave the NFL, as several of the sources are suggesting, wouldn't the conversation have seriously shifted to another candidate by now? Why would Michigan still be pursuing him, as appears to be the case?
December 7th, 2014 at 5:50 PM ^
but it's possible that he would lead UM on even with no intent of coming to AA. He knows he's out in SF at the end of the year and is likely to be traded (and he's fine with this). He therefore has no interest in "helping" SF and simultaneously hurting his new NFL franchise with an expensive trade where the 49'ers are getting multiple picks. The only leverage he has in that scenario is give the impression that he's thinking about returning to college. He can also use that leverage to help drive where he gets traded (i.e., trade me to the Jets or I'm going to coach at Michigan and you get nothing). That lowers his asking price for the team acquiring him and keeps him in control of the situation.
One additional point: Harbaugh is up for an extension regardless of which NFL he ends up coaching (if he in fact stays in the pros). Thus it's in his interest to get the biggest offer he can from Michigan and use that as leverage for his next pro contract.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
After UM's bb loss yesterday to NJIT. OSU's demolition of Wisconsin and their subsequent selection by the playoff committee I am not hoping for anything positive to come UM's way. If things keep going this way we will be announcing Johm L Smith as the new head coach any moment now.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
If it's not going to be an A list guy then I would be more comfortable handing the reigns to Nuss then getting another MAC coach, a crappy retread, or someone elses's unproven coordinator. M is already going to be paying him and before he worked under Hoke he was on the hot coordinator list and was successful at every stop before AA.
He's certainly not my first choice but I think of the last guy who was hot and successful before he came to AA and didn't pan out. He's now successful at his next stop.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:56 PM ^
I'll be even more in the tank for Mullen if he can bring Dak Prescott with him.
December 7th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
I underestimated how difficult it would be to be patient during this process.
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