greg schiano

Previously: Rutgers Offense

We're back for the defense half of FFFF, focusing on the side of the ball that our opponents for this weekend specialize in. Rutgers has started the season 3-0 largely on the back of its offense so it's time to ask: how scared should we be of Sir Henry's finest defenders this weekend? 

The Film: We're going with Virginia Tech again for reasons previously stated in the offense piece, recency and the likelihood that the Hokies are indeed better than Northwestern and Temple (not assured, but likely). 

Personnel: Don't get mad, Seth is testing the powers of the Michigan Cyan Circle Positive Jinx [click for big]: 

Rutgers' EDGEs are familiar to those who read this column last season, or Michigan recruiting news dating back four years. Old Friend Aaron Lewis is still around, his chops against the run still up for debate (they seemed fine in the game I charted) but his overall importance to this Rutgers defense is not. The one-time Michigan commit is currently off to a blazing start to the season, PFF's 3rd-highest graded EDGE player to play at least 50% of his team's snaps. He gets the star for it. 

The other EDGE is still Wesley Bailey, the one who gets to drop into coverage from time to time. He's fine, but not the impact piece of Lewis. Bailey is the spot on the line that rotates out more frequently, where you can see the likes of Kenny Fletcher and Jordan Thompson get involved. Sometimes you'll see Rutgers go 3-3-5 with their passrushing SLB coming on in Bailey's place, who I'll get to in a moment. 

DT in my estimation is still the biggest weakness on the Rutgers defense. Mayan Ahanotu is starting after being in the rotation a year ago, while Isaiah Iton, a journeyman transfer joins him in the lineup. Both of these players were liable to being shoved around, Iton especially, earning the diagram's lone starter cyan circle. As most teams do, Rutgers rotates their tackles pretty heavily, Rene Konga, Kyonte Hamilton, and Troy Rainey all in the mix and all of them unspectacular. There is no Dude at this position. 

There is at LB though, MLB Tyreem Powell. A real good player, Powell earns the Dangerman designation this week and is the 12th-highest graded ILB in PFF's grading among players at the position to play at least 50% of his team's snaps. WLB Deion Jennings isn't as good but is still a solid starter and then their third LB is the aforementioned SAM, Mohamed Toure. Though Toure's main skill is his pass-rush ability, he is plenty capable of performing ILB duties and did so in the place of one of the MIKE/WILL starters in the VT game from time to time. 

Rutgers typically goes with five DBs, though sometimes they're in a 4-3 with the SLB out there. The nickel who gets lifted when they shift is Desmond Igbinosun, who seemed decent to me. Like a lot of team's nickels, he has responsibility in the blitzing department. The outside corners are longtime Scarlet Knight Max Melton and Robert Longerbeam, both of whom are familiar with the program and these roles. They are decent B1G starters but showed vulnerability to vertical passing in the VT game. At safety, Minnesota transfer Flip Dixon has had a tremendous start to the season and just missed star status. Shaquan Loyal starts as a ho-hum safety next to him. Eric Rogers is the first corner off the bench, Joe Lusardi the first safety. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: clips]

B1G play starts this week and for the second time in three seasons, the Michigan Wolverines get it going with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan Stadium. Rutgers is 3-0 on the season, a win over Northwestern followed by non-conference wins over Temple and Virginia Tech. Is this squad something to fear, or merely coasting against three very bad opponents? We will settle that debate this week in our two part breakdown, starting today with the offense. 

The Film: None of these three opponents are anywhere close to the same caliber as Michigan, but being two P5 schools, I decided to pick between Northwestern and Virginia Tech. Both teams are brutal this season, with VT having fallen a shockingly far ways from the perennial 10 win days of the Frank Beamer era and Northwestern is going through a scandal we are all familiar with by this point. Per SP+, Virginia Tech is a bit better of a team this season than the 'Cats and so I decided to lean towards the Hokies. Also, the VT game has the benefit of being more recent by two weeks, which should give us a more accurate picture of the Rutgers offense. Though I charted only the VT game, I did review the extended highlights of the Northwestern game and will use them when appropriate. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

For the second year in a row, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are led by the still-teenage QB Gavin Wimsatt, who has a bigger arm than Noah Vedral but has been plagued by accuracy issues so much that a chart of his pass attempts looks extremely Vedral-like. Passing problems aside, the major difference in Wimsatt's play compared to last season is the way they've reconfigured the offense to optimize his legs, something we will explore in length later on. As a result of this situation, we have cyan'd half of Wimsatt to represent his passing game but have left the other side alone, representing his running ability.  

The RB position is headlined by Kyle Monangai, a workhorse and the Dangerman for this piece. Monangai has already carried the ball 58 times this season for 357 yards, a yardage total that ranks sixth in the NCAA in total rushing so far. Of the five ahead of him, two are ahead of him by *one* yard and two more have played an additional game. With 5 rushing TDs as well, Monangai has been a beast so far and a player that the Rutgers offense revolves around. The other RBs include Ja'shon Benjamin, a true freshman who had some flashes in the game I charted and has emerged as the clear #2 back on the depth chart, as well as Samuel Brown V, a stand-out last season in his brief trial before injury. Whatever momentum Brown had last season appears to be gone, with just seven carries to his name in three games in 2023. 

Heavy turnover at the WR room means that all three WRs to get starter status on last season's diagram, including 2022 Dangerman Sean Ryan, have left the program. 6'3 Isaiah Washington is now the top outside receiver while 5'9" Christian Dremel is the go-to player in the slot. Washington seldom leaves the field, while Dremel has played about two-thirds of offensive snaps this season. Neither of those two have looked particularly dangerous but they are tied for the team lead in catches with seven. The other outside WR spot has been a rotating cast of characters, JaQuae Jackson's five catches and 94 snaps leading the group but Chris Long and Ian Strong have been in the mix as well. Farther down the list you can find Rashad Rochelle and Max Patterson. 

At tight end we find eternal Scarlet Knight Johnny Langan, preserved from the 14th century to don the scarlet shining armor every season for the rest of the universe's existence. Langan, once a wildcat QB, has been the TE for a few seasons now and is entering his fifth season as a contributor at Rutgers and his sixth season of college football in totality. If Langan can find a way to play more season he can challenge Chris Autman-Bell for the title of longest tenured B1G player in modern memory. Langan is the team's primary TE, having played over 80% of snaps this season, an important check-down target (5.8 yards per reception) and an okay blocker, having a very strong game against Virginia Tech. Shawn Bowman is the second TE who comes on in 12 personnel and has been largely terrible this season. 

Rutgers' offensive line has been a sore spot for years and the projection coming into the season was for it to be as bad as ever, with heavy attrition from last season. Last year's RT Hollin Pierce has slid over to LT and despite getting a cyan last year, he was surprisingly strong in the VT game, a major catalyst for Rutgers' left-handed rushing attack. I did not give him the designation of feebleness on this year's diagram. On the other side of the line, the RT entering the season was Tyler Needham, who looked okay through 1.5 games before an injury against Temple sidelined him for the Virginia Tech game. In his place was Kamar Missouri, who had a very poor showing and earned a cyan. Taj White is the fourth tackle who gets involved every so often, but I don't have a ton of notes on him. 

On the interior of the line, C Gus Zilinskas is both our name of the week winner and the most-used lineman on the team. He came close to a cyan with a poor performance against Virginia Tech, but the PFF grades from his other two games were good enough for me to avoid putting it on him. Kwabena Asamoah starts at RG, a player who I only noticed three times and all three were negative moments. That, plus a track record of subpar play, earned him a cyan. The final guard spot has been a rotation of Curtis Dunlap Jr., Bryan Felter, and Mike Ciaffoni (some of these guys sub in for Asamoah from time to time too). Of these three, I actually liked Felter and Ciaffoni more than Dunlap but there wasn't a massive difference and I didn't get enough snaps of either to get a feel for it. None of them are "good" and all teeter on the edge of cyan status. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: I hope you like QB draws]

9/18/2021 – Michigan 20, Rutgers 13 – 4-0, 1-0 Big Ten

Well, at least it took 3.5 games to get back to the same old feeling. The grim one, where you're staring grimly at the grim field where grim things are happening and then Michigan and its steamroller of a run game takes a delay of game penalty instead of attempting a fourth and one. After that there's another penalty before Michigan can finally punt. The color drains out of the world until you forget where you are and momentarily think you're at Eastern's stadium, which is now gray—not just gray, but gray-gray, ultragray—in some sort of marketing stunt turned guerilla art installation.

Say what you want about the Eastern Michigan Eagles' proficiency at football, but never slander their perspective on the fatalistic trudge we call life. Football is healthy and good to have influence your thoughts.

At times like these the man with the mustache arrives in my head.

You can find him by googling for "sad Florida State fan," and you will discover that this is now a bustling corner of the image search internet populated by folks in glitter and surrender cobras from sea to shining sea. But mustache man is still first, because he is a perfect distillation of the emptiness of a bad football game where your team gets to do the fun parts three plays, and only three plays, at a time while the opposition dunks on you.

He is also a tribute to the human ability to read nuance into facial expressions. What makes Sad Mustache Man so compelling? He merely stares ahead, stoic. His brow furrows slightly. The way he communicates the existential angst of Ole Miss punching your face in is mysterious. Blindingly clear, and somehow impossible to define. He stares into the middle distance and attempts to keep all his atoms in the same place.

--------------------------------------------

Since Michigan was playing Rutgers, "dunks on you" means "scores ten points in a half and still loses." The feeling is still the same. Michigan's second half didn't lose this game; it felt like it lost future games. At some point down the road when Michigan gets conked everyone watching will think about how the second half of Rutgers foretold this woeful fate.

Which, I guess, fine, okay, yeah. I predicted this team would go 7-5 and so did everyone else. Even after… that, a reversion to that level of pessimism is not reasonable. A reversion to the same old thing—9-3 or thereabouts, losing most of the exciting games, not being particularly competitive against Ohio State—is, and here we're in the same treadmill it seems like we've always been on.

Michigan can exceed expectations this year and still put up something entirely unsatisfying. Too good to fire, not good enough to enjoy. That's not fate, of course: maybe Greg Schiano is pretty good at this and Michigan will receive a wake-up call and actually bomb someone worth bombing on the road. One half doesn't erase the other halves.

But when you keep walking down the same road year after year it's hard to expect that something's different until it actually is. Until then, a steady stare into the middle distance is always a good option. Doesn't usually get you put on TV unless you're a perfect distillation of sadness, and even then there's usually someone just as sad but dressed more outlandishly.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

I AM DETECTING AN ILLEGALITY [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Aidan Hutchinson. Didn't have a massive game statistically but is likely to check in with a monster UFR number. Had a sack, bowled over an OL on the direct snap to Pacheco, probably should have drawn multiple holding flags. Making up for meh performances otherwise.

#2 Nikhai Hill-Green. Shuffled through traffic on the second to last Rutgers drive to stick folks short of the sticks on critical plays. Led team in tackles, a fair few of which were important. Preseason hype seems not crazy.

#3 Brad Robbins. Ok he had a bad one but the one he dropped at the three that took a right turn out of bounds was important, and he limited the dangerous Cruicshank to just one punt return attempt.

Honorable mention: Josh Ross turned in a good performance with one thunderous TFL before leaving; Chris Hinton got off a block on one of the key Hill-Green stuffs to help; Dax Hill was a bit up and down but did stuff some perimeter stuff.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

16: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU)
14: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers)
11: Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU)
7: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers)
5: Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU),
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU), Brad Robbins (HM Wash), Jake Moody (HM Wash), Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan's opening drive is a 17-play marathon featuring two passes, a touchdown, and the absorption of half a quarter.

Honorable mention: Hill-Green gets back to back sticks to functionally end the game; bonafide RPO gets Roman Wilson a chunk on Michigan's second efficient TD drive to start; ditto the Sainristil catch; officials ignore a blatant block in the back on Henning's return.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Can I say the entire second half? No? Okay, uh, McNamara missing three straight open receivers on one of the three-and-outs. (Sainristil could have caught the first one, yes; still low.)

Honorable mention: The rest of the second half.

[After THE JUMP: up up up up nope nope nope nope]