No MGoPod this week because of Easter/Seth on vacation but HockeyCast being taped Tuesday and will be ready Wednesday morning. One day later than normal because David was traveling back from Missouri
I think it has just tended to be that access to the nitty gritty details of hockey strategy and coaching have often been limited to those who played at high levels. TV broadcasts even in Canada have very limited coaching insight in terms of X's and O's and really illustrating the structures that teams play within. It's just hard to go from a casual to coaching level knowledge, much harder I've found than in football. There are resources available, you just have to dig for them and I think it's just tended to be that anyone who was so hockey obsessed enough that they were going to dig that deep to learn how to be a coach was probably also a player of some kind at one point in their life (there are plenty of coaches who topped out as junior/not very good college players)
I haven't heard anything on Casey. I will try to do some digging on that in the subsequent week. He did not appear to have a cast on anything in the post-game pictures when he was in a suit, but can't assess much beyond that.
People would use KRACH as the most predictive ranking system a la SP+/KenPom, but I don't think it's perfect or anything. If you go off of KRACH, Michigan would have a roughly 22.5% chance of beating BC. I'd put it a bit higher than that, maybe closer to 30-35%. Corsi was once thought of (in NHL circles) as the most predictive analytics metric during the early days of the analytics revolution but has since been relegated behind Expected Goals, which unfortunately we don't have public use of in college hockey. I don't personally see Corsi as super predictive in college hockey, where the gaps in PDO factors (shooting/goaltending) are so varied based on talent level. KRACH is probably your best bet, blended with the eye test, which indicates Michigan is playing better than their KRACH rating right now.
we let Raylen Wilson get away but his horrendous coverage on a wheel route for Georgia vs Bama in the SEC Title Game helped Bama win that one and thus pave our path to win a national title, so who's to say we weren't the real winners of that one
i mean sure, but it wasn't Clink vs. these other two guys lol. They wanted to keep Clink and then when they didn't they moved onto a process that turned up these two candidates
I went and got my pic taken with it today at Meijer on Carpenter Rd and it was shockingly fast. Like only 8 people in line, took 5 minutes. I'm assuming it'll be crazy at the MDen
i have recently been publishing and then quickly proofreading so i have something up on a decently timely basis but it leads to a few typos if you read it within minutes of its publishing lol
annoying but probably made the right decision for him. MSU is an interesting young team and their blue line is not really rife with puck-moving D so he can go there and be a focal point, get a lot of PP time, etc. rather than fighting with Casey and Edwards and others at Michigan on the depth chart
ELCs are a bit complex. Dollar amounts change marginally depending on what the circumstances are (if you're a UDFA signing, where you are in the draft, etc) but now it goes up to 950 and the low end is close to around the old league minimum of 750k.
What often happens with ELCs is for CHL prospects, because they don't have the amateurism mumbo jumbo, they sign the contract as soon as they're drafted but then it doesn't start running until they surpass the 9 games in the NHL. What you sometimes see with first rounders out of the CHL is they sign it, play the trial eight games, and then if the NHL team says they're not ready, they send them back to the CHL. Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn't allow that because of said amateurism nonsense. For college players, they only sign the ELC once they're for sure leaving college, because you can't go back after that point. This is something that imo they should absolutely change now that amateurism is dead and NIL is the law of land, but they haven't.
If you're in the AHL with an NHL ELC, you earn minor league salaries and the clock doesn't start ticking on your NHL ELC until you come up and join the big club and qualify for the first year of it
Not Seth but I went in and changed the verbiage slightly. Mayo is definitely not a 5* as you note, but Michigan views him as if he were one and the reporting is he's thus a take regardless of numbers in the class, which I think is what Seth was getting at
I went in and altered the text after this, i was going off of data from Illinois Report Card for Bolingbrook HS that reported a higher than the state average of lower income students in the school. However, while that clip is higher than the state average, at 49.5% of students overall at low income, the use of "predominantly" was incorrect and has been changed. Thanks.
as a general rule i will never believe Michigan is getting a blue chip from Ohio over OSU until the moment it happens, but the pursuit of Scott and West certainly now qualifies as "intriguing"
yeah it's basically a first come, first serve situation. I've been a bit surprised that we still haven't seen anyone commit yet at EDGE but it feels like once the first domino falls, it will be a rush. Rudolph, Nichols, and J. Smith all are probably deciding soon so that may get it going
If you have any feedback about this format, things you liked/didn't like, things you'd like to see added in the next piece of the series, feel free to comment and tell me!
the player has a lot of autonomy here so I think it will ultimately come down to what Adam wants. But the Ducks sent Zegras to college, let McTavish stay in the OHL, they really haven't been rushing it. They want to start getting better no doubt, but I think this is a better outcome than Columbus or Vancouver for example, who almost certainly would go all out to sign Fantilli
I haven't looked into it too deeply yet, will do that more once the FF is over but it's an alright class. Not the same standard as the last three because there was a bit of a recruiting gap when the coaching change happened, but they have a fresh slate of goalies and a skilled F I really like in Nick Moldenhauer out of the Chicago Steel
The MGoPod was using an incorrect version of the PWR Probability Matrix so if you got info from that, it was wrong. Michigan is 80% to be the #4 spot, 17% to be #5, and then extremely small probabilities for 3/6. The three feasible scenarios in that region are (1) Michigan / (2) BU, (1) BU / (2) Michigan, and (1) Michigan / (2) Harvard.
If you want the latter, cheer for Harvard to win the ECAC and BU to lose today to Providence
ah thanks i shoulda fact-checked that. They said he was a Michigan fan on the broadcast and said he was from two hours away so I assumed he was a Michigander and wrote it down as such. Updated in the piece
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haha i almost included a line about "in football terms, this offense is like CJ Stroud throwing to Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and JSN"
Much appreciated!
No MGoPod this week because of Easter/Seth on vacation but HockeyCast being taped Tuesday and will be ready Wednesday morning. One day later than normal because David was traveling back from Missouri
I think it has just tended to be that access to the nitty gritty details of hockey strategy and coaching have often been limited to those who played at high levels. TV broadcasts even in Canada have very limited coaching insight in terms of X's and O's and really illustrating the structures that teams play within. It's just hard to go from a casual to coaching level knowledge, much harder I've found than in football. There are resources available, you just have to dig for them and I think it's just tended to be that anyone who was so hockey obsessed enough that they were going to dig that deep to learn how to be a coach was probably also a player of some kind at one point in their life (there are plenty of coaches who topped out as junior/not very good college players)
I haven't heard anything on Casey. I will try to do some digging on that in the subsequent week. He did not appear to have a cast on anything in the post-game pictures when he was in a suit, but can't assess much beyond that.
People would use KRACH as the most predictive ranking system a la SP+/KenPom, but I don't think it's perfect or anything. If you go off of KRACH, Michigan would have a roughly 22.5% chance of beating BC. I'd put it a bit higher than that, maybe closer to 30-35%. Corsi was once thought of (in NHL circles) as the most predictive analytics metric during the early days of the analytics revolution but has since been relegated behind Expected Goals, which unfortunately we don't have public use of in college hockey. I don't personally see Corsi as super predictive in college hockey, where the gaps in PDO factors (shooting/goaltending) are so varied based on talent level. KRACH is probably your best bet, blended with the eye test, which indicates Michigan is playing better than their KRACH rating right now.
Thanks to everyone who read and commented on recaps this year. Hopefully this will be the worst season any of us will ever see
we let Raylen Wilson get away but his horrendous coverage on a wheel route for Georgia vs Bama in the SEC Title Game helped Bama win that one and thus pave our path to win a national title, so who's to say we weren't the real winners of that one
i mean sure, but it wasn't Clink vs. these other two guys lol. They wanted to keep Clink and then when they didn't they moved onto a process that turned up these two candidates
FWIW this is seconded by Henschke as well but i didn't feel like putting the link to Henschke because I'd already linked a few of his paywalled things
saved my sanity by attending the NHL All Star Game today... back at it on Wednesday!!
I went and got my pic taken with it today at Meijer on Carpenter Rd and it was shockingly fast. Like only 8 people in line, took 5 minutes. I'm assuming it'll be crazy at the MDen
Michigan is definitely the better team and they've shown that all season. If Michigan plays a pretty clean game, give me Michigan 37-27.
But if Michigan plays as sloppily as they did against Alabama, or god forbid TCU, Washington can absolutely win this game and it wouldn't stun me.
Final FFFF of the season no matter what- thanks to everyone who read and commented this year.
you will probably have the opposite reaction to the defense one
only if it's a picture of Wade Boggs laying unconscious on the bar room tile
i have recently been publishing and then quickly proofreading so i have something up on a decently timely basis but it leads to a few typos if you read it within minutes of its publishing lol
Was supposed to be yesterday, but circumstances intervened. New plan is to record tomorrow
the real answer is Brian just forgot to click the box to turn comments on. I have gone in and ticked it so you can comment now
Updated to reflect 45-7 as the final score throughout the story, thanks lol
this is what i get for editing my pieces at 3:15 am
Me reading today's game column
Jess Speight, a walk-on who flipped from OL in fall practice, started a bowl game against Alabama at DT
in case you're wondering, we will have a take on the Harbaugh controversy. Brian is working on it presently
annoying but probably made the right decision for him. MSU is an interesting young team and their blue line is not really rife with puck-moving D so he can go there and be a focal point, get a lot of PP time, etc. rather than fighting with Casey and Edwards and others at Michigan on the depth chart
the ghost of Harry Caray keeps popping up in this thread somehow
ELCs are a bit complex. Dollar amounts change marginally depending on what the circumstances are (if you're a UDFA signing, where you are in the draft, etc) but now it goes up to 950 and the low end is close to around the old league minimum of 750k.
What often happens with ELCs is for CHL prospects, because they don't have the amateurism mumbo jumbo, they sign the contract as soon as they're drafted but then it doesn't start running until they surpass the 9 games in the NHL. What you sometimes see with first rounders out of the CHL is they sign it, play the trial eight games, and then if the NHL team says they're not ready, they send them back to the CHL. Unfortunately, the NCAA doesn't allow that because of said amateurism nonsense. For college players, they only sign the ELC once they're for sure leaving college, because you can't go back after that point. This is something that imo they should absolutely change now that amateurism is dead and NIL is the law of land, but they haven't.
If you're in the AHL with an NHL ELC, you earn minor league salaries and the clock doesn't start ticking on your NHL ELC until you come up and join the big club and qualify for the first year of it
yeah i can definitely see that argument for sure... both come back and both leave together
I hadn't seen that, definitely an interesting quote. No idea if they have any insight at all
on my spreadsheet I have him as a defensive athlete because I'm not really sure where he ends up at the moment
Haskins was 975 in the composite
Not Seth but I went in and changed the verbiage slightly. Mayo is definitely not a 5* as you note, but Michigan views him as if he were one and the reporting is he's thus a take regardless of numbers in the class, which I think is what Seth was getting at
I went in and altered the text after this, i was going off of data from Illinois Report Card for Bolingbrook HS that reported a higher than the state average of lower income students in the school. However, while that clip is higher than the state average, at 49.5% of students overall at low income, the use of "predominantly" was incorrect and has been changed. Thanks.
as a general rule i will never believe Michigan is getting a blue chip from Ohio over OSU until the moment it happens, but the pursuit of Scott and West certainly now qualifies as "intriguing"
yeah it's basically a first come, first serve situation. I've been a bit surprised that we still haven't seen anyone commit yet at EDGE but it feels like once the first domino falls, it will be a rush. Rudolph, Nichols, and J. Smith all are probably deciding soon so that may get it going
one note i didn't put in the piece because I couldn't find a proper place to find it and it will make everyone very sad:
preparing to write a lot of Hellos in the next few weeks is what I'll say
yeah that's not a crazy comp. at all, Green was another mid-4.5 guy, a bit taller than Wallace but similar mold for sure
If you have any feedback about this format, things you liked/didn't like, things you'd like to see added in the next piece of the series, feel free to comment and tell me!
hoping at least someone here gives me credit for correctly calling it the "Commonwealth of Pennsylvania"
the player has a lot of autonomy here so I think it will ultimately come down to what Adam wants. But the Ducks sent Zegras to college, let McTavish stay in the OHL, they really haven't been rushing it. They want to start getting better no doubt, but I think this is a better outcome than Columbus or Vancouver for example, who almost certainly would go all out to sign Fantilli
ah yeah, edited
missed this one, thanks. Piece updated to reflect it
I didn't count Baker because it is not a sure thing he is back until we hear from the NCAA
I haven't looked into it too deeply yet, will do that more once the FF is over but it's an alright class. Not the same standard as the last three because there was a bit of a recruiting gap when the coaching change happened, but they have a fresh slate of goalies and a skilled F I really like in Nick Moldenhauer out of the Chicago Steel
grrrr mixing up the 247 ranking with the composite. Thanks, edited
The MGoPod was using an incorrect version of the PWR Probability Matrix so if you got info from that, it was wrong. Michigan is 80% to be the #4 spot, 17% to be #5, and then extremely small probabilities for 3/6. The three feasible scenarios in that region are (1) Michigan / (2) BU, (1) BU / (2) Michigan, and (1) Michigan / (2) Harvard.
If you want the latter, cheer for Harvard to win the ECAC and BU to lose today to Providence
my apologies on the YouTube videos everyone, it is all fixed and operational now
hey now, we may have both gone to college looking 11 years old but he doesn't have the glasses look down
ah thanks i shoulda fact-checked that. They said he was a Michigan fan on the broadcast and said he was from two hours away so I assumed he was a Michigander and wrote it down as such. Updated in the piece
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