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Hello: Devon Baxter Comment Count

Seth June 19th, 2023 at 8:01 PM

Michigan's edge recruiting has taken a lot of turns this cycle but Michigan finally reeled in one of the top ends on their board.

GURU RATINGS

RATINGS BY SITE

247: 6'6/225

On3: 6'5/235

Rivals: 6'7/230

ESPN: 6'6/230

3*, 88, NR Ovr
#41 DE, #17 MD
4*, 90, NR Ovr
#27 DE, #8 MD
3*, 5.7, NR Ovr
#38 SDE, #20 MD
no rating
3.70 3.99 3.62 n/a

COMPOSITE RANKINGS

247 Composite

On3 Consensus

MGoBlog

 
3*, 0.8859, #506 Ovr
#32 DE, #13 MD
3*, 89, #418 Ovr
#28 DE, #12 MD
3.5*, #544/794 Ovr
#60/87 Edges since 1990
3.86 3.90 3.78

Baxter is a relatively new discovery to the recruiting world. His profile popped up on the sites last March, but the offer history shows a wave last November and another in early February. Any recruiter who asked would be told that the school "likes my film and the way I play" and that [lead recruiter] is a "high energy guy." In our case edge analyst Dylan Roney was also a "chill dude" who tells it like it is. Recruitment over.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Between a Hutchinson and an Ojabo.]

SCOUTING

Not a whole lot. The only site with a national analyst take online is Rivals. The good news is that take is Adam Friedman including Baxter on a list of who should come after his #1 edge Dylan Stewart.

A new and intriguing name … At 6-foot-7, 230-pounds, Baxter's junior film shows him making plays against the run and the pass from his defensive end position, but he also lines up as a tight end and receiver, showing off his impressive athleticism for his size.

This was among the SDEs. Jerod Smith also got a mention.

EJ Holland of The Wolverine got his own scouting by going to see Baxter work out.

…has a really impressive frame with a ton of length. Baxter is listed as 6-foot-7 on On3, but that’s pretty generous. I would say he’s closer to 6-foot-5. Still, Baxter is that tall, long, athletic prospect that Michigan desires in its pass rushers.

I exchanged messages with a source close to the program, and he told me Michigan loves Baxter’s athletic ceiling and ‘dog’ attitude. Baxter definitely has a lot of both. This is a kid that started off playing quarterback and tight end and only recently made the transition to pass rusher.

He gave a comp to David Ojabo, including the rawness. EJ also talked to Baxter's trainer Marlon Curtis of Pass Rush Academy($):

He’s a raw talent. He has such a high ceiling with his athletic ability and gain of knowledge at the EDGE position. He’s very versatile. He has the range to do a lot of things.

Curtis also noted that Baxter was up to 260 as a freshman, and was down to 231 as of April. Curtis has had a *LOT* of pro edges to come through his program, and offered up a build of Josh Sweat with the head of Jevon Kearse.

His speed continues to grow. His length and speed kind of reminds you of these guys moving and doing things.

There's no scouting up from 247 right now.

OFFERS

This was a quick recruitment but as he blew up PSU, Tennessee, Pitt, West Virginia, and Virginia Tech seemed to be the players, with Rutgers (visited June 9) and VT (offered when he was in 9th grade) the schools involved early going "aw shit, they found him!" Virginia Tech was supposed to get a return visit on June 23. He was also looking to visit Tennessee, Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia as of May. He took unofficials to VT, UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Syracuse.

HIGH SCHOOL

The last 4-star to come out of Gwynn Park was PSU DT Phillip Taylor in 2006. They've sent some 3-stars to Pitt, NC State, Virginia, and Vandy. Brandywine is just outside the edge of the DC Metro Area, to the southeast of the city, with Waldorf close enough to share a Costco and rural Southern Maryland in the other directions. It has nothing to do with the Revolutionary War's Battle of Brandywine, unless it was named for it. Think quaint train town in tobacco country that got big box stores and suburban sprawl in the early 21st century.

STATS

Via his 247 profile:

2022: Made 48 tackles, including two sacks and 21 tackles for loss, and caught 12 passes for 181 yard and four touchdowns in seven games.
2021: Made 23 tackles, including two sacks, and caught seven passes for 73 yards.

FAKE 40 TIME

None found.

VIDEO

There's also a workout from his trainers.

His Hudl page has game highlights and sophomore film. Lifting.

ETC

Plays basketball. OMG Shirtless.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Flimsy evidence indeed. He looks like a basketball player out there, with ridiculous length that makes it impossible for high schoolers to control him or escape him. Seems like an obvious candidate for a Herbertization Project, after which Michigan hopes to have their next super-long superfreak to play their Ravens games on the edge. If he's been 260 before he can probably get there again, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of linebackerness to him, so we can pretty comfortably project Baxter to the four-down (four as in 4-3 or 4-2-5) "EDGE" position and figure out later if they want him on the Ojabo or Hutchinson side depending on how Herbertized he ends up. Michigan has a few of these types in various stages of development right now, and Baxter can get in the pipeline.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Michigan wants to take four edges this cycle—right now they're counting Jaden Smith at LB and Jerod Smith (no relation) at edge. This Clemson reporter seems to have a good idea of where Michigan's priorities are:

Per a contact, a best-case scenario for the Wolverines at DE/EDGE might be adding four more in addition to the one already committed. Those ideal four additions would be Mayo, Nichols, Baxter, and Elias Rudolph.

Michigan views Mayo as an elite talent and he will be a take regardless of numbers. People think Michigan leads for Nichols and Rudolph, and via EJ Holland its likely Baxter and Nichols will end up in the same place($). Jerod's brother Jacob is another edge recruitment. They've also been after Brian Robinson and Marquise Lightfoot forever, but the longer those recruitments have gone on, the more it feels like Michigan's gotten as far as they can with them.

THE CLASS AS IT STANDS

OFFENSE
Pos Player State Stars In a nutshell
QB Jadyn Davis NC 4.7 Smooth, accurate field general
RB Jordan Marshall OH 4.4 Accelerates South-North
RB Micah Ka'apana NV 3.7 Well-balanced accelerator
WR I'Marion Stewart IL 3.9 Ronnie slick/quick, #1 WR to M
WR Channing Goodwin NC 3.8 Chain-moving son of Jon
TE Brady Prieskorn MI 4.4 Colston Loveland Midwest
TE Hogan Hansen WA 4.1 Colston Loveland West
LT Andrew Sprague MO 4.2 Basketballin' grow-a-Long
RT Blake Frazier TX 4.2⬆⬆ Athletic son of Steve
RG Luke Hamilton OH 4.0 Midwestern mauler
LG Ben Roebuck OH 3.8⬇⬇ Bigger Midwestern mauler
C Jake Guarnera FL 3.8 Mauler but center
DEFENSE
Pos Player State Stars In a nutshell
DT Manuel Beigel CT 3.5 Lengthy German via Choate
DT Owen Wafle NJ 4.0 Little nose with bite
DT Ted Hammond OH 4.0 Cincy build-a-bear
SDE Jerod Smith CT 4.0 Low-pads, high-motor big twin
Edge Devon Baxter MD 3.8 Super long 4-3 grow-an-edge.
OLB Mason Curtis TN 4.2 Long athlete moving up
OLB Jaden Smith NC 3.8 Underscouted Uche
HSP Cole Sullivan PA 3.8 Hybrid LB with crazy athleticism
S Jacob Oden MI 4.1 Tall son of coach

Comments

Don

June 19th, 2023 at 8:16 PM ^

Did you have this already written just waiting for his announcement to post? Normally we'd get 3 or 4 "Committed!" posts on the board before the official write-up is posted.

Great work anyhow, as always.

JonnyHintz

June 19th, 2023 at 8:40 PM ^

When it’s pretty well known we’re heavy favorites for a guy, they typically write up the Hello ahead of time. I’m honestly surprised they didn’t have one ready to go for Stewart. 
 

I’m also sure it’s easier/quicker to put together when the scouting is limited. Less articles to quote and source. 

Seth

June 20th, 2023 at 7:49 AM ^

Here's what happened. See where the wind went from 10 knots to zero? That was when I was taking my kids sailing because my daughter leaves for camp today. 

So we came home and the girl played in the sprinkler and the boy napped and I saw Baxter was committing (insiders knew it was Michigan) so I checked to see if there was a lot of scouting, and when there was just a little I said fug it, watched his reels, and wrote up a hello post.

Seth

June 20th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^

Yeah well if you want to know how I find time to work while also being with my family, note the time of the screenshot, and note that there was too much wind data already reported for it to have been taken at the pm version of that time.

Blake Forum

June 19th, 2023 at 9:20 PM ^

You're telling me this is a 6' 7" pass rusher who has no history as a national recruit, got snapped up by Michigan based on evals, and also plays *receiver*? I think there's a good chance this kid contributes

NotADuck

June 19th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^

Not to be rude, but where is Mayo listed as a 5 star?  24/7 has him as a 3 star and his composite rating is .92.  No where near 5 stars.

JimmyFresh

June 19th, 2023 at 11:01 PM ^

Yeah, the Robinson recruitment has been weird.  I could be totally wrong, but he seems to really be holding out for that Suckeye “offer.”  Michigan has shown him everything they have to offer and recruited the kid hard, but still no commitment.  Now Kentucky seems to be where he’s leaning???  He might end up in the class after all, but with all the defensive line/edge recruits seriously interested in the joining the class, not sure Michigan is holding a spot for him at this point.  He’s been a top target and I think all Michigan fans who follow recruiting would love for him to join the class, but it’s like “what’s the hold up?!”

alum96

June 19th, 2023 at 10:20 PM ^

Get in the weight room and see you in 2.5 years.  With all the DE development UM has produced it is strange we are not getting Chase Young and Bosa types clamoring to come here vs "athletic projects".  Not to be a Maizen.  Don't mind a project or two every 2nd class, but we should be reeling in top 10-12 type DEs with our track record of getting guys into the league.

mwolverine1

June 19th, 2023 at 10:36 PM ^

Development generally means something different to guys at that rating. They want to be top 10 draft picks and All-Pros, not just get an NFL paycheck. Michigan has been decent at this (Hutch and Gary in particular), but not quite at the level of others. Plus bag and proximity to home are factors we have to work against. 

RAH

June 19th, 2023 at 11:08 PM ^

I don't have data on it so this is just a suspicion but that suspicion is that those schools you cite as reeling in the 5 stars and producing high draft picks are doing just that. They get very highly rated prospects and those guys often get picked high in the draft.

That  means those programs are just doing what is expected on the development front and usually not dropping the baton. On the other hand, Michigan is getting 3 and 4 star recruits and developing them into the NFL. Often as high draft picks.

NJblue2

June 19th, 2023 at 11:35 PM ^

Yeah I don't think Michigan produces enough high end picks and guys who become household names. We're getting there, and I think we'll start seeing more day 1 and 2 picks. Clemson, Georgia, Bama, OSU do that a lot so that's why the tend to get 5 stars even if their actual development isn't as good. (Looking at you OSU and all your 5 stars on defense).

njvictor

June 20th, 2023 at 8:05 AM ^

With all the DE development UM has produced it is strange we are not getting Chase Young and Bosa types clamoring to come here vs "athletic projects"

It definitely is a little weird. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills how OSU is still recruiting so well at DE. Chase Young has been a bust in the NFL, Zach Harrison was a 5* who ended up going in the 3rd round, 2 top 5 players Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have barely done anything at OSU going into their junior years, and somehow OSU is the leader for Marquise Lightfoot and Eddrick Houston. At some point players have to start seeing through their "BIA" blatant self promotion, right?

BlueTimesTwo

June 20th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^

Wasn't it always known/believed that OSU was paying players SEC-style ever since Urban went there?  If so, then it is reasonable to believe that they are still doing so, following the pay-for-play model that is allegedly not permitted.  Top recruits often want an instant payday, and they feel they can get that at OSU.  Odds are if they are an athletic freak then they will get drafter on their "potential" anyway, or so they believe.

dragonchild

June 20th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^

Both are true.  There's absolutely nothing mutually exclusive about those observations.

OSU has mostly completed its transformation into an NFL finishing school.  Sawyer and Tuimoloau are mostly just biding their time.  Why play hard and risk injury if you're already projected to be drafted early?

You'd think NFL teams would notice that OSU is creating a culture of complacence which should have its own repercussions, but so far I'm not seeing that.

pescadero

June 20th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^

"You'd think NFL teams would notice that OSU is creating a culture of complacence which should have its own repercussions, but so far I'm not seeing that."

Probably because outside of QB - OSU players have largely been pretty successful in the NFL.

 

They have 25% more players (71 vs. 56) , with 100% more career earnings ($1.06 Billion vs. $420 million) in the NFL.

 

For just next season: 

1) Bosa - $24 million
2) Heyward - $15.9 million
3) Lattimore - $14.5 million
4) Decker - $14 million

5) Rashan Gary - $10.9 million

6) Curtis Samuel - $10.6 million
7) Corey Linsley - $10.5 million
8) Vonn Bell - $7 million
9) Michael Thomas - $6.3 million

10) Frank Clark - $5.5 million 

 

njvictor

June 20th, 2023 at 7:57 AM ^

This take was interesting to me because there really isn't much film on him at DE out there, but with his athleticism, frame, and the plays he makes in the available highlights, I think this is a good pick up. Here's some videos from 247's Eugene Hankerson that shows off Baxter's athleticism that also sold me:

https://twitter.com/EugeneHankerson/status/1670961845962670080

Also, I kinda have a hard time thinking that we won't take Jacob Smith in this class if he wants in

Magnus

June 20th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^

I saw a commitment article where it said Baxter had 12 sacks as a junior last year. But yeah, 247's profile says he had just 2. Even though he's raw, 2 sacks is a very low total for a 4-star edge player, even if he did play in just seven games.