Michigan -9.5 at Purdue

Submitted by Bigku22 on September 17th, 2017 at 9:36 PM

For my fellow gambling degenerates. 

Michigan is currently -9.5 at Purdue. The line has bounced back and forth between 8-10. Purdue is 2-1 and more importantly for some 3-0 ATS. 

For value purposes, I have a bet from preseason on this game of Purdue +22, so quite the dramatic shift in 3 weeks. 

Michigan also 3-0, but only 1-2 ATS. 

Purdue is off to a great start but will have major disadvantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball (they only have 1 sack on the year). So who's laying the points this weekend?

Also of interest:

Notre Dame -3.5 at MSU

UNLV +39 at Ohio State

EDIT: Updated Purdue's record, they are 2-1* but 3-0 ATS

Comments

teldar

September 18th, 2017 at 9:12 AM ^

This was supposedly part of the source of his heart condition. Supposedly his wife told him to get his dick out of college girls or there were going to be issues. This is why he was out of coaching for a year. Supposedly.

SF Wolverine

September 17th, 2017 at 10:01 PM ^

and while we love to bathe in Domer tears, I think Kelly is going to get them to 8, maybe 9 wins this year.  Stanford no longer looks like a safe loss for ND, and I think they beat Sparty handily.  Mork is spending every waking minute getting ready for us; withhis talent he has to pick his battles, and he'll prep for us rather than ND.  

Logan88

September 17th, 2017 at 10:06 PM ^

If Dantonio is stupid enough to blow a chance to beat a meh Notre Dame team when his depleted Spartans actually have a decent shot of winning that game (home night game) only to ensure that his team can "Lose With Dignity" against UM in Ann Arbor, he should be fired immediately.

Logan88

September 17th, 2017 at 10:10 PM ^

I picked Iowa for the straight up win several weeks before the season. I'm slightly less confident in that pick based on the way Iowa has looked thus far but the Hawkeyes are good for one inexplicable win (usually a home night game) every season. Last year, UM had the bad luck of being the victim, this year I think PSU fans will be shaking their collective heads at a WTF? loss in Iowa City.

DrMantisToboggan

September 17th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^

Really? You're less confident? I've liked Iowa to win this game since before the season as well, but I was always unsure what their QB would look like. I think Stanley has far exceeded my expectations. It will be the first time PSU plays a top 50 S&P+ team, with a top 20 defense. It's probably the first bowl team they play as well. Should be a good game!

DrMantisToboggan

September 17th, 2017 at 9:44 PM ^

Purdue is 2-1. They beat an Ohio team that will finish in the bottom half of the MAC this year and a Missouri team that had fired their Defensive Coordinator the week of the game when the staff realized that the DC had lied on his application saying that he actually knew what defense was. Purdue put up a hell of a fight against a Louisville team that, granted has the reigning Heisman winner, but looks much worse than their squad last year. They got absolutely bullied by Clemson the other night.

 

Purdue is certainly improved under Brohm, who is a great coach. But, like you said, they will be at a serious defecit on both lines, and they'll face an above average defense for the first time this year. 

 

We're a lock to cover.

doggdetroit

September 17th, 2017 at 10:13 PM ^

We can play the same game with Michigan:

Michigan beat an average at best Florida team that has perhaps the worst offense in the power 5. Michigan then looked underwhelming against a bad Cincinnati team (the prediction from Brian was 62-3), and an Air Force team that was severely outmanned talent wise.

At this point, Purdue looks vastly improved compared to the Purdue of the past 3 years. That Purdue would have lost to Ohio (see Darell Hazel's record against the MAC) and gotten destroyed by Louisville. Instead they almost beat them. True Louisville then lost soundly to Clemson, but Im not sue Michigan would fare too well against that Clemson defense.

This will be the biggest Purdue home game since the Tiller era and I expect a close game that goes down to the wire,