ESPN FPI Prediction, Which Isn't Nearly As Hilarious As Was Initially Believed, Projects 9.6 Wins For Michigan, 2.8% Chance Of Winning Out
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/130
MOD EDIT - Fixed title for OP's sake. Hopefully, they enjoy the nod I left to them in the rewrite. - LSA
September 19th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^
Sounds good. Go Blue!
September 20th, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^
Right now I’d take a 10 win season with 2 wins over MSU, Wis, PSU, and OSU, and be over the Fing moon about it.
We’ve said it before and it not come true, but the trajectory of this coaching staff is unreal. Now just need some continuity.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
I’d certainly be over the moon too, but tbh if we lose two games (excluding the bowl game) they would almost certainly be two of those four.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
Title says it all! Hey, whoa…
September 19th, 2021 at 10:25 PM ^
they give that a 2.5% chance of happening
September 19th, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
Agree and adding this here. The probability of winning each game is 50% or better but the combined probability is 2.5%. The OP could say ESPN says “there is a chance” of Michigan winning out.
Btw,
Michigan has an 18% chance of winning the conference compared to PSU at 10.2% and OSU at 33%. PSU is so much lower because they play Iowa. OSU doesn’t play Iowa or Wisconsin.
Also, Alabama has a 17% chance of winning out compared to Michigan at 2.5%.
All meaningless.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^
Everything is meaningless. There is nothing new under the sun.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:46 AM ^
But once you get over the sun....oh boy.
September 20th, 2021 at 6:25 AM ^
Your religion is scary!
September 20th, 2021 at 7:33 AM ^
Just wait until you take the red pill!
September 20th, 2021 at 8:18 AM ^
Wait...are you Nihilist Arby's?
September 20th, 2021 at 1:09 AM ^
Wait OSU doesnt play Iowa or Wisconsin? Go on.. you dont say. Honestly its kind of silly. Yeah Yeah I know they are in the middle of their Illinois and Purdue pod for the next decade I get it.
September 20th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
The probability of winning each game is 50% or better but the combined probability is 2.5%.
If they're treating each game as an independent event, and simply multiplying single game probabilities to get a combined probability, then that's a mistake.
September 22nd, 2021 at 3:41 AM ^
I believe winning out at 2.5% means all the way to the NCAA championship game.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
Favored in every game remaining in our schedule does not mean they have us winning out.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:31 PM ^
They don't even have that. PSU is a 50/50 pick em.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:39 PM ^
Franklin is the tie breaker.
September 19th, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^
We win.
September 20th, 2021 at 6:50 AM ^
Unless it come down to a draw(ing)....
September 20th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
That gif pisses me off so much. The audacity of the man to call a bullshit field goal before half when his team is down by 4 possessions! Clearly he wasn't trying to win the game, just save any small piece of dignity he can by getting some cheap points on the board. The irony is that while settling for his "sad field goal", he did just the opposite in my mind.
Just watching that scoreboard in the bottom right corner, seeing that 0 flip to a 3 while he nonchalantly jots something down in his notepad, makes my blood boil. I want Michigan to run his team of the field in their own damn stadium so bad this season.
September 20th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
Honestly Harbaugh felt the same way as you. I’m sure there is a gif somewhere, but the TV cameras caught him with a look of confusion and disgust at the FG call.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:13 AM ^
We end up 8-4 and lose to a mid level SEC team in a second tier bowl game in Florida. Book it
September 20th, 2021 at 6:59 AM ^
I'm gonna go ahead and watch the games anyway. Just in case.
September 20th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
"I'm gonna go ahead and watch the games anyway. Just in case"
No harm there. But watching the games still won't change reality
September 20th, 2021 at 7:50 AM ^
Gonna play Alabama??
September 19th, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^
I don't think it's projecting what you say it's projecting
September 19th, 2021 at 10:53 PM ^
Wait a minute. I have a 50% chance of calling heads if you flip a coin. Are you telling me that doesn’t mean I have a 50% chance of calling heads ten times in a row?! Bahahaha
September 20th, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
50% chance of calling heads
Since you presumably have control over what you call, there could indeed be a 50% chance of you calling heads on a single coin flip AND a 50% chance you call heads 10 times in a row. If you randomly make the call on the first flip and select heads on flips 2 through 10.
Now, the odds of the outcome the coin flip (not what you would call) would be a different matter. Bahahaha
September 20th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
If I flip a coin 9 times and it comes up heads each time, there's a 90% chance it comes up tails on the tenth flip. Amirite or amirite? What's this nonsense you're telling me about independent trials?
September 20th, 2021 at 1:19 AM ^
In fact, it pretty clearly says there's a 97.5% chance that what he says they're predicting WON'T happen.
September 20th, 2021 at 8:08 AM ^
C’mon, 74.2% of all statistics are made up. 91.7% of people know that.
September 20th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
The glass is 2.5% full.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:29 PM ^
It doesn't have us projected to win out. That's not how probabilities work
September 19th, 2021 at 10:30 PM ^
Stats fail.
September 20th, 2021 at 5:30 AM ^
More correctly, some interpreters of stats fail.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^
I think you should review your middle school statistics textbook.
September 20th, 2021 at 6:14 AM ^
Your elementary school statistics primer would work too. It’s up there on the shelf next to your “Nuclear Phyics Is Fun” picture book.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:36 PM ^
Ok fine, stat nerds. They have us projected to win each of our remaining games.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:52 PM ^
You must be a blast at parties.
September 20th, 2021 at 6:15 AM ^
He’s “hilarious”
September 20th, 2021 at 5:41 AM ^
Stop it Tate!
September 20th, 2021 at 6:11 AM ^
When making a mistake OR riling up people, I doubt the best response is to insult the character of those who disagree. (However immediately satisfying the insult may be.)
September 20th, 2021 at 6:35 AM ^
I cannot believe that you've been here almost 12 years and haven't figured out that you've chosen the wrong place to be a poor sport about being called out for utilizing faulty statistical analysis - either your own or, in this case, someone else's. That's what we do. It truly is the sign of a good "Michigan man" to point out misuse of statistics and other fallacies. Do try to take it in the spirit in which it was intended - educational, but snarky. It's the sort of outlook that will forever give us a psychological edge over OSU if not a game performance edge.
September 20th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
Thanks for fixing the OP, LSA. Also, for trying to coach the OPer.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:37 PM ^
Burn it all.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:43 PM ^
According to that, demolishing NIU was Michigan's least impressive performance of the season thus far.
...(sigh)...must be nice.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:44 PM ^
Cheer upChuck!
September 20th, 2021 at 7:09 AM ^
Or cheer and then upchuck.
September 19th, 2021 at 11:17 PM ^
In all fairness, Chuck you would know better than us. You did just play in the National Championship, what like last year lol?
September 19th, 2021 at 11:25 PM ^
Look at it this way, if things keep deteriorating under Day, you have Fickell in the wings. I mean look how close he is.
There. Feel better?