WTKA Roundtable 12/10/2020: The Velvet Divorce Comment Count

Seth December 11th, 2020 at 8:22 AM

Football things discussed:

  • Kirk Herbstreit should have had to play QB for Ohio State
  • Warde's presser: recruiting clearly is not their top priority.
  • If Harbaugh wanted to come back for what Michigan wanted to offer it'd be done now.
  • Behind the scenes: Harbaugh probably testing NFL, Michigan likely checking out the alternatives.
  • The entire sky isn't falling: they'll still have most of a class signed on Wednesday.
  • Nobody's going to take a coordinator job on a sinking ship unless he wants the top job after.
  • Whatever you do you have to get a recruiting titan.
  • If Michigan's going to pay they're not going to get Isaiah Wilson.
  • Is there a Juwan Howard of college football?
  • Franklin hires guys because they have hot wives.
  • If you're a recruit and you have an opportunity to sign on to a transition class, you are going to get more of an opportunity to start.
  • Buyout doesn't seem plausible, so bottom line is if Harbaugh has an NFL exit he might take it and if he doesn't they sign an extension that Michigan can get out of if there's a bad year.

Hoops things discussed:

  • Big Hunter Dickinson! His +/- keeps going up. Just slicing through Toledo. Who in the B10 verse can stop him?
  • Perimeter communication needs work on defense.
  • Chaundee Brown shootin like that: Charles Matthews with a shot? Prefer him to a 5-star.
  • Around the Big Ten: MSU looks tough, Illinois's shooting is unsustainable but Adam Miller can play.

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.

Segment two is available here. And you can watch the recording here:

THE USUAL LINKS

He does physically look like Michael Finley.

Comments

JFW

December 11th, 2020 at 8:45 AM ^

"

  • The entire sky isn't falling: they'll still have most of a class signed on Wednesday."

How can we say we need a recruiting titan, highlighting the importance of recruiting, and at the same time say the sky isn't falling when we are losing recruits, the top parts of the class, and starting to lose guys already on the team? 

It just has this feeling that people don't like Harbaugh so they're willing to minimize his successes, maximize his failures, minimize the impact of the instability, and maximize the potential for change. 

I really have this feeling that the slow roll we are seeing from the administration on this is going to crater us for like five years. I hope to God that's not true, but it really feels like that. 

Do something. 

Gulogulo37

December 11th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^

Do something isn't an answer. Michigan is gonna lose some recruits whether they fire Harbaugh or not. And they're not going to hire Campbell tomorrow. Things were so much worse transitioning from Rich Rod to Hoke and that's not what cratered the program (cratered for other reasons). Michigan waited a long time for Harbaugh too. No one's season is done yet, but people want this all wrapped up yesterday.

JFW

December 11th, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^

More like they want clarity and transparency. 

If you don't want Harbaugh, fire him. If you do that, start reaching out to people now. 

If he's screwing around with a contract and negotiating, say 'We want him but we're in negotiations'. 

Lack of transparency just bites us in the ass and does no one any good. 

Red is Blue

December 11th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^

Firing Harbaugh now does nothing to address uncertainty as we won't know the replacement.  You can't say "we want him, but we're in negotiations" because it paints you in a corner.  If you don't land him (or pivot away from him) it sends a signal that you can't or won't seal a deal.  Further, it still means there is uncertainty will they work it out or not?  

The only way to have certainty is to extend him now if you know that is what you want to do.  But, that means both JH and M want the marriage to continue and can hammer out acceptable terms.

The only value of clarity is for keeping the recruiting class together.  A lot of people seem to be demanding clarity because they want to know.  You're a fan, you'll know when you'll know and you're not entitled to full transparency.

 

 

Rabbit21

December 11th, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^

Agreed, there is a lot of stuff that is taking time to shake out.  Patience is going to be required.  We're not really going to know anything for a few more weeks anyway if they're even going to come close to getting this right(given a buyout is NOT going to happen in this current economic climate).  Once you accept that they can't really afford the buyout, the only thing left is to wait and let things play out.  Warde got Mel Pearson on the right timing, he handled John Beilein leaving for the Cavaliers on just about the world's worst timing well.  Now there was some serendipity in having a seemingly perfect candidate with strong Michigan ties waiting on the bench in both of those cases, but he also didn't manage to find a way to talk himself out of a serendipitous situation, there is value in having an AD that recognizes a good thing and doesn't screw it up.

This is a difficult situation with a lot of dominoes to fall, I have to imagine everyone involved can see it's not working and are therefore trying to perform a somewhat delicate extraction.  This isn't letting a mid-level manager go, there is a lot of money at stake in a year when everyone had to go scrounging for cash.  Let's allow reality to influence events and take a breath(Yes, I realize that I reacted poorly to a post yesterday asserting that insider information had Harbaugh staying, this is a note as much to myself as it is to anyone else who might be frustrated by what's going on).  

JFW

December 11th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^

I'm a Harbaugh stay guy. But I can respect the other side. Again, I don't discount the complexity. I hate the opacity. And, given what is happening to the recruits, so do they. 

It does no one any damned good. 

Admittedly, the other thing that irritates me is that if it was Harbaugh running this with one of his coordinators and not the AD Brian and Seth would be all over it as a sign of his paranoia, quirky personality, and lack of organization. 

It would be bad then. 

And it's worse now given it's the HC job. We *always* come off trying to be the smug smartest guy in the room. Just be honest.

Rabbit21

December 11th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

Okay I'll bite.  What, exactly, should they say in this situation that would NOT immediately tip their hands in sensitive negotiations.  I am all for being pissed off if they stay opaque like this and bungle it and absolutely will be.  BUT I just don't know what can be said publicly right now that would make anyone really feel better that wouldn't completely compromise whatever plan is being worked out.  

Again, it's a shitty situation and my take is if paying the full buyout was any kind of an acceptable solution then he would have been fired already. 

This is plainly a shitty year and has been for a multitude of reasons, I can accept having to take these external realities into account as a reason for why things need to be handled with a lot of thought to come to a good conclusion for all sides.  

If Harbaugh stays, though, well then I'm out until Michigan under him figures out how to play well on the road, not bend over for the fucking cheese-eaters every year and learns to show up in a bowl(I honestly don't even care about beating Ohio St., I've written that game off forever).  

JFW

December 11th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^

I'll root for whomever. If it's campbell, so be it. If it's Harbaugh, well, he's 2-2 vs. Wisconsin. Yes, the last two sucked; but I'll hope for better. 

I guess I don't fear transparency in business or negotiations. They don't have to lay down everything. Just say 'Hey we want this to happen. We want to get him on board'. If it doesn't work out so be it but you've at least laid it out there and settled recruits and current team members down. You've also set up a situation where assistants know WTH is going on. So if you want to hire some in the future you'll have that going for you. 

I've looked into companies that were hiring but every couple years would just say f* it and dump people; or be vague about their future 'We are planning big changes!'. Did I hire in there? Hell no. Further, after all the sturm and drang we've had at Michigan, a little stability helps parents. 

This is a football program. Not a SALT treaty. 

There is the situation where they want him gone, and can't pay the buyout. OK. Then you're kind of stuck. Figure out a way to keep him for three years and buy in. Stuff will get better eventually. 

 

JFW

December 11th, 2020 at 9:00 AM ^

If we convince Harbaugh to stay, or he stays on his own, or whatever, I'd assume that the hope would be we'd $hit can the coordinators and bring in someone who might be HC materiel in a few years. 

Gattis is a decent guy. I just don't understand his offenses. Looks good under Cade, looks like Crap under Milton. I hate offenses that are so dependant on one guy. Either that or it's like he's saving the 'good' calls for Cade. 

 

SlickNick

December 11th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^

I'm no football expert but too often it seems like Gattis is just trying random plays to see what works. It's hard to see any true identity with this offense. I never really saw any "speed in space", never saw Milton unleash any of his 70yd bombs, and I have no idea what our run game is. It seems like Brian/Ace/Seth think Harbaugh's hands are all over this, and it doesn't allow Gattis to run his "true offense", but I personally find that hard to believe. We spend the whole game in shotgun, no play action, and not the same run offense Harbaugh came in with. I don't believe it was Jim's idea to motion the QB out as WR presnap, and no way would Harbaugh have had Haskins throw a RB pass on the goal line vs MSU. He would rather hand it to Ben Mason 4 times in a row than pull something like that.

Anyways, burn it all down and start over.

JFW

December 11th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^

"It seems like Brian/Ace/Seth think Harbaugh's hands are all over this, and it doesn't allow Gattis to run his "true offense", but I personally find that hard to believe."

There's been f* all for evidence for this, and other people like Isaiah Hole say that Gattis has the keys, full stop. 

Gattis may just be learning the ropes. And the points you bring up are valid. The whole 'AHHH IT'S REALLY HARBAUGH' is crap. When we *did* have the Harbaugh offense it was alot more clever. People are using a straw man of running up the middle to characterize his offense, then blaming him when Gattis does it. 

tomharmon2

December 11th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^

My hope is that the Harbaugh contract is worked out before signing day...  Simply not fair to recruits—and can’t blame any of the verbal commitments if they don’t sign (yet)...  

Harbaugh needs to sh_t or get off the pot...  Just not fair to Michigan program.

Rabbit21

December 11th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^

I think we all understood the reasons for the dip in year three and could trace it mostly to a problem(Bad O-Line) that we knew had been brewing for awhile and there was enough of an upward trajectory elsewhere that there was confidence, sure I think everyone was irritated by the way the team lost some of those games and for my money the South Carolina bowl game was where I started to question the foundations of the program.  But it's when a bad season seemingly comes as the result of decisions the head coach has made throughout(sorry two wins out of six games in his sixth year at Michigan is on Harbaugh) where I think the torches and pitchforks really come out.  

In other words, yeah, there will probably be some grumbling and even some "Fire Coach X!" from the crankier corners, but as long as we're seeing progress, I think the noise will be muted.  

LloydCarnac

December 11th, 2020 at 9:15 AM ^

A falling sky is a process, not an event. The Harbaugh we see today looks nothing like the one we hired, and it didn't happen overnight. Cause of demise is always a postmortem determination during autopsy. And, it is atypical for affected parties to divulge details during sky fall, or even after. Someone will probably write a book about it, and we all know who.

mi93

December 11th, 2020 at 9:57 AM ^

Just spitballing here and haven’t thought it all the way through but could Wheatley be the Juwan equivalent for football?  Is he seasoned enough?

tenerson

December 11th, 2020 at 10:35 AM ^

Sam's wrong. Yes, recruiting is very important but that's not what the key is. 

The key is culture and evaluation. You have to have a great culture and you have to have a huge hit rate on 3 stars to bridge the gap. You aren't overcoming payment of recruits with good recruiters. That's a pipe dream. 

CompleteLunacy

December 11th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^

Not even on 3*. You need a better hit rate on 4*. Which is easier to do, theoretically. But Michigan has constantly been missing on some of the higher-rated recruits they've gotten. (And it's not just that they all suck. Some are starters. But very very few if any ever seem to take the next step towards consistently great to elite. Example: Charbonnet was a high-end 4* and he didn't even see the field this year! He wasn't a bad back last year so wtf happened man?)

BTB grad

December 11th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^

Hoke pulled in back to back top 10 classes before the demise began in the early 2014 season. Harbaugh pulled in top 10 and 15 classes. We didn't get consistent top 10 results on the field either time. 

Michigan can mostly recruit itself. Unless the AD allows us to go full bag men (which I doubt they would), any coach we bring in probably recruits around that same level Hoke and Harbaugh did. NIL should help to improve upon that though

We need a guy who can instill the culture and Xs and Os to actually capitalize on the talent

CR

December 11th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^

I think this is right.

There are scores (or more) of three star (or lower) guys who are a success every year. There are plenty of 4 and 5 star guys who flop.

Build a good culture and evaluate talent well and everything else will fall into place. See John Beilein. You already have the facilities, a great school. a nice city, and alumni who will support athletic grads.

CompleteLunacy

December 11th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^

I'm on Brian's side. I disagree with Sam's take on needing a guy who is an outstanding recruiter first and foremost. Because I don't think improving upon recruiting that Harbaugh has done is feasible at Michigan in the current bagman climate. 

We need a guy who can do more with less. We need a guy who will not only continue to recruit those 4* but then actually develop them and keep them. Harbaugh's recruiting has never been really bad, but player development, attrition, and roster management has absolutely killed him.

You can't attain the recruiting level of OSU and Bama before you actually beat them, and even then I'm not sure it's possible at Michigan. 

 

SecretAgentMayne

December 11th, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^

This is exactly what I was getting at yesterday regarding the Jeff Hafley hype train and his alleged recruiting chops. Hoke and Harbaugh are good recruiters, but it doesn't mean anything if you suck ass at developing them or have no idea how to utilize them. We don't even know if he's actually THAT good of a recruiter, let alone if he can develop talent and mange them correctly.

Brian Griese

December 11th, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^

I agree with everything you said. People need to ask themselves why last year we had a 5 star QB, a stable of highly recruited WR’s and 5 offensive linemen that either have or will be drafted into the NFL and yet we scored 14 regulation points against Army, 14 against Wisconsin, 10 against Iowa, 21 against Penn State and only 19 against OSU for 3 quarters. Compared to recruiting Starz, our talent level and how other teams light up the scoreboard that’s a joke. 

In fact, I believe there was a 9 play stretch in the 3rd quarter of the OSU game that consisted of 7 incomplete passes, a negative or zero run play and a sack. Sorry, that’s not a recruiting problem. 

andrewgr

December 11th, 2020 at 8:30 PM ^

I find this constant lamenting about "bagmen" to be frustrating and tiring.  If you have evidence that a program is paying players, present that evidence to the NCAA and get them punished.  If you don't have evidence, it's unbecoming to blame your failures on someone else's cheating.

FWIW, even Michigan recruitniks, who have heard plenty of scuttlebut about various players being paid over the years, say that they hear nothing or very little about OSU being involved.  OSU lost out on a chance for a national championship due to a bowl ban because several players traded memorabilia for tattoos.  They were star players; if they were getting paid, why were they reduced to swapping their future memories for ink?  If Chase Young got paid, why did he serve a suspension for borrowing (or being gifted, if you insist he lied and there was a coverup) a measly couple of grand?

It's deeply insulting to the players.  If you think you've got what it takes to play in the NFL, what kind of a dumb ass do you need to be to take money from a booster or an agent to go to a certain school?  If you get caught, that's it, you're done; good luck having a career in the NFL with no college coaching, no college experience, and no college tape.

Bagmen were a big part of Southern Football culture for a long time, and probably still are to some extent.  But there has never been a book or an article or a credible allegation that Ohio State had some regular, institutionalized culture of bribing players to go play there, at any point in their history.  There is fame and money to be made publishing a story, supported by evidence, about a major college football team paying recruits; do you really think that multiple journalists haven't looked over the years?  

Ewers is one of the handful of athletes in the history of 247 Sports to earn a 1.000 rating.  He was committed to Texas.  If he took money for that commitment, what do you think happened when he changed his mind?  Had he carefully held onto it, not spending a penny for months, and just politely returned it?  The booster that paid him was just like, "Good luck, have fun?" When he switched to Ohio State, I assume you believe that a QB, who is currently considered a can't miss NFL draft pick, decided to pocket  ten or a hundred grand to go to OSU-- it's not possible that he just saw what Day has done with Haskins and Fields, and the historically great WR room that Hartline has assembled, and decided that he'd make tens or hundreds of millions of dollars more in the long run by maximizing his development in college?  

I have no doubt that once they're playing, some OSU players get a thousand dollar handshake now and then, or a sweet deal on a loaner car, or whatever.  If they're caught, they should be punished; but that doesn't give them a recruiting advantage.  No one's going to a college because they heard rumors that every now and then an alumni will give them a few bucks.  You're talking about paying players large, life-changing amounts of money to get them to commit, which apparently not a single player has ever wanted to talk about afterwards?  That no other teams have ferreted out and ratted on them for?

If Urban Meyer was at Michigan, he'd be recruiting top 5 classes most years.  He'd have a Florida pipeline, and a Texas pipeline, and an Ohio pipeline, and he'd get four of the top five players in Michigan every year.  And none of that would be because he's paying players; it would be because young men want to win, they want to improve, and they want to get drafted, and Meyer has an impeccable record of doing all of that.

It's not academics either.  That argument has been debunked with facts too many times to count, yet it still gets trotted out.  Michigan doesn't have higher admission standards than Ohio State; Wisconsin and Northwestern are the only two teams in the conference that have admission policies that are meaningfully above the minimum required by the Big10.  Michigan's players aren't there to "play school" any more than they are at Ohio State-- Michigan has the same B.S. general studies-ish major that they strongly encourage players to take, the same required study halls, the same academic counseling.  In fact, Ohio State had a higher APR than Michigan did last year.  (And the whole "play school" idiocy is really unfortunate; Cardale Jones was an A student in high school, he graduated from OSU with good grades, and on the day he made that infamous tweet, he was frustrated that he got a bad grade-- a 'B'.)

Michigan hired two horrible coaches in a row.  They then hired a great coach, who (I strongly believe) went on psychiatric medication and became a different person, someone who is not at all a good program builder or head coach.  Don't blame the results on other schools being sordid and cheating.  Hire a better head coach and start kicking their ass.

jdemille9

December 11th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^

I think our level of recruiting is fine, and without a bag man I don't see how it gets any better. We've gotten a handful of high 4's and 5's. Problem is lack of development and prepare them at an elite level.

I absolutely believe we can compete with OSU, Bama and Clemson but it requires having a coach who can create great game plans/prepare them well and a staff who develops the talent they have at an elite level. 

Newton Gimmick

December 11th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

I know he mentioned Tony Elliott too, but it sounded like Sam was describing Hafley without saying his name.  When he was talking about finding the guy with the highest ceiling in terms of recruiting, while still having the coaching chops (the latter being the difference from, say, Hoke).  

UofM Die Hard …

December 11th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^

Interesting that Sam said Chris Peterson like 4 times...

I have some UW friends connected to the program(ish) and said the stress of CFB was too much for him. But i think he is a hell of a coach, would be very happy to see that.