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Date Title Body
12/06/2018 - 2:36pm Of the two losses we had…

Of the two losses we had this season, which ones do you think would have had a different outcome without Pep?

12/05/2018 - 12:53pm I hate to be the bearer of…

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but scientific research is a hell of a lot sexier than insurance.

12/04/2018 - 2:03pm It also doesn't help that…

It also doesn't help that the title of the other thread was something like "LOL ESPN" or whatever it was.

12/03/2018 - 10:52pm So argue with the logic then…

So argue with the logic then (which I haven't defended) instead of the spelling.

12/03/2018 - 3:33pm I find it funny that you…

I find it funny that you easily understood everything he was trying to get across but still you felt the need to be a total asshole about it.

12/01/2018 - 8:50pm Michigan's offense this year…

Michigan's offense this year is ranked #19th in the country on 1st and 2nd down success rate.

12/01/2018 - 2:48am Michigan offenses under…

Michigan offenses under Harbaugh since 2015:

2015: ranked 38th (Drevno, Wheatley, Fisch, Rudock)
2016: ranked 41st (Drevno, Wheatley, Fisch, Speight)
2017: ranked 85th (Drevno, Pep, Frey, Speight/O'Korn/Peters)
2018: ranked 24th (Pep, Warinner, McElwain, Patterson)

Pep is by no means an elite offensive coordinator. But he is not "garbage" either as many in this thread are implying, nor is he the reason that Michigan lost to OSU.

I'm sure the people making these claims think they are being very fact based but it's coming from a place that is just as much emotion as rationality.

11/30/2018 - 7:46pm The Pep Hamilton salt in…

The Pep Hamilton salt in this thread is real.

Did you clowns watch the same OSU game that I did? Maybe you were too drunk to have an accurate memory of how it went down?

I don't recall Pep Hamilton rushing 4 all day and leaving a linebacker back to spy Haskins, or leaving Brandon Watson out there to be repeatedly victimized.

11/30/2018 - 7:43pm If you told me before the…

If you told me before the game that we'd put up 39 on OSU, I'd say "hell yeah we're going to win."

It's very entertaining to me that people want to blame the offense before the defense.

11/27/2018 - 1:16pm Yardage is only part of the…

Yardage is only a distorted part of the story, since the results are affected by the tendency to trot out tight ends and fullbacks in short yardage situations. It's much better to separate out explosiveness and success rate instead of looking at overall yardage or yards per play.

Success rate is defined based on the definition of a "successful" play:

On first down, a successful play gets at least 40% of necessary yards for a first down.
On second down, a successful play gets at least 60% of necessary yards for a first down.
On third and fourth downs, a successful plays 100% of necessary yards for a first down.

Ideally, you'd want to then break down success rate and explosiveness by personnel grouping as well as (bucketed) down and distance.

Then you can point out (made up trend but an example of how this would be useful) "Michigan's 12 package is less successful on 2nd down and long than Michigan's 11 package, but the coaches are using 12 more often"

11/25/2018 - 10:07am We weren't blitzing nearly…

We weren't blitzing nearly as much as we normally do but we were spying Haskins.

The coaches had not enough respect for OSU's oline, too much respect for Michigan's dline, too much respect for Haskins running it, and too much faith in Brandon Watson when he was getting beat over and over again.

11/14/2018 - 8:43pm Revenge Tour season 2…

Revenge Tour season 2 beginning before season 1 has even concluded, interesting....

11/14/2018 - 12:35am I'll follow this up with an…

I'll follow this up with an additional comment. If Shea sticks around next season it gives Michigan continuity in the passing game we haven't had since... yeesh. There's a real opportunity to build something special.

FURTHER EDIT TO THE ABOVE:

We actually aren't great at getting 1st downs on 1st or 2nd down, we just spend /a lot/ of time in 3rd and short. And our passing down offense has improved since I last looked at the stats two weeks ago:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#

11/14/2018 - 12:27am We're really efficient and…

We're really efficient and explosive on 1st and 2nd down, being good at staying ahead of the chains and getting and portion of our 1st downs on 1st or 2nd down or getting into 3rd and short. Our run game and play action games are working very well together on standard downs.

When we do get into 3rd and medium, we're actually very good in that situation relative to other offenses.

In 3rd and long or any obvious passing down our offense is not good, at least according to the statistics. They are still developing the receivers and Shea in this regard.

11/10/2018 - 1:41am Absolutely love watching him…

Absolutely love watching him play.

Here's an early season highlight video (two days ago, so doesn't include the latest game winner, but does include his previous game winner in the season):

<iframe width=" 480" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IZOwhAlfEWA?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>

EDIT:

Not sure how to get the embed working. If anyone would tell me how I'd appreciate it.

In the meantime you can find the video here: https://youtu.be/IZOwhAlfEWA

11/04/2018 - 7:15pm The negativity that you and…

The negativity only has a negative impact on the program, recruiting, etc. You are allowed back onto the bandwagon but you need to sit down and learn your place. The coaches are A LOT smarter at football than you are, by a margin the magnitude of which you are not even able to comprehend. That doesn't mean there is no valid questioning or criticism, but it needs to be done from a place of "hey coach, what do you know that we don't?", and from am understanding that coach is not obligated to tell you anything and in fact it may not be in the interest of the team.

10/22/2018 - 8:42pm We are adherents of the…

We are adherents of the theory that improvement, will lead to victories, will lead to championships.

10/20/2018 - 5:45pm Not to mention all of the…

Not to mention all of the hidden yards we got from our defense and special teams giving great field position. I am overall pleased with the way this game went and how the season is shaping up overall so far, but there will be plenty to work on in practice these next two weeks. GO BLUE!

10/13/2018 - 11:02pm +1, Funny
This was perhaps…

+1, Funny

This was perhaps the most complete offensive performance under Harbaugh and Hamilton. Michigan was efficient, explosive, and was able to vary their scheme over the course of the game based on the situation. It was creative, and it was brutal.

10/10/2018 - 4:55pm Much more concerned about…

Much more concerned about our rush defense vs. Wisconsin's rushing attack, especially with the number of injuries on our DLine...

10/07/2018 - 12:45pm What the statistics say is…

What the statistics say is that we lean to slightly favored in each game, but they should all be competitive and it's unlikely we'll escape from the stretch unscathed.

09/29/2018 - 8:07pm Winovich was held where was…

Winovich was held where was the fucking flag you bullshit refs???

09/29/2018 - 7:55pm It's the same ref each time…

It's the same ref each time making these insane calls against Michigan. Who is this asshole?

09/29/2018 - 7:33pm These refs are complete…

These refs are complete bullshit. Where is the hold??

09/17/2018 - 4:04pm Anyone who has shown over…

Anyone who has shown over half of their offense at this time in the year has a small playbook.

There are only so many plays that can go in the gameplan for a given week.

09/09/2018 - 2:51am "fumbled"
i mean yes it was…

"fumbled"

i mean yes it was a fumble but it was clearly OOB

they got robbed by the refs

09/08/2018 - 11:22pm Wimbush also threw three…

Wimbush also threw three picks against Ball State while he was dropping dimes against Michigan

It's called variance

Edit: this post was meant to be a response to the troll but I think the parent post was deleted

09/06/2018 - 7:01pm There wasn't enough time on…

There wasn't enough time on the clock to run beast mode 3 times.

The debate is (pass, run, run) vs (run, run) and between those two options (pass, run, run) is more mathematically likely to lead to a win (both choices are likely to result in a W but attempting the free pass play first increases the odds in your favor further).

A good question is why did Belichick decide not to call the time out?

09/06/2018 - 3:00pm Mathematically, no.
The…

Mathematically, no.

The question is whether to run 3 plays (pass, run, run) or two plays (run, run).

Interceptions happen less than 1% of the time at that down and distance.

The odds of winning the game are high for Seattle either way, but they're highest when calling the 'free' pass play.

The loss was not due to the playcall, it was due to Malcolm Butler making one hell of a football play.

09/03/2018 - 12:29pm The young guys aren't…

The young guys aren't developing, Fire Warriner!!!

/s

09/02/2018 - 2:27pm What do you expect Jim to…

What do you expect Jim to say here, exactly?

"Yeah we're really disappointed that Runyan didn't get it done tonight."

Do you really expect to hear him say that in press conference? Really?

Some people on this blog are so damn dumb.

09/02/2018 - 1:17pm I don't know any playcalls…

I don't know any playcalls that make up for the fact that you 1) can't pass block, and 2) apparently can't run block either.

09/01/2018 - 2:35pm This should be obvious to…

This should be obvious to everyone but for some reason it isn't.

08/30/2018 - 7:36pm New Gameday Sign: "Google…

New Gameday Sign: "Google Jeffrey Wadsworth Resignation Letter"

08/30/2018 - 7:31pm Congratulations Wilton!!!
As…

Congratulations Wilton!!!

As recently as a few weeks ago, the media were (rather, weren't) talking about him as if he wasn't even in the race.

08/15/2018 - 9:20am As an engineer, this article…

As an engineer, this article makes me like Hackett even more than I already did.

The fact that Wall Street investment types don't seem to grok him is just icing on the cake. :)

08/12/2018 - 5:10pm A real piano is high on my…

A real piano is high on my list as well, Kalil.

Go Blue!

08/01/2018 - 11:37pm Meyer was reportedly…

Meyer was reportedly extremely close with Earle Bruce before Bruce passed away in April.

08/01/2018 - 6:25pm Not very often.
To my…

Not very often.

To my knowledge, this is almost always a precursor to a resignation or firing.

06/24/2018 - 2:23pm Actually, no it isn't. I…

Actually, no it isn't. I wonder, do you have a degree in mathematics or statistics? I do, so let me explain the value of starzzz to you:

Starzzzz are not the most accurate tool available for evaluating an individual recruit; not even close. Talent evaluation by people who know what they are looking at (division I coaches, for example) is the most accurate tool. It's not a perfect tool -- no tool is perfect, but it is far and away more detailed and deep than some recruiting industry once-highschool-assistant-coach-or-something analyst who fires off quick and lazy evaluations of as many kids as he possibly can.

Star rankings are simply the best tool that is available to general audiences (i.e. morons on blogs like you), but that doesn't mean they are a good predictor. If you had any degree of statistical literacy, you would understand that a star ranking has no predictive value for any individual kid. It does have predictive value when taking a sufficiently sized random sample of division I recruits at a certain star ranking, then you can expect a certain range to be NFL draft picks.

Even looking at the class in the aggregate is /not a sufficiently random sample to apply star rankings and gain accurate predictions/. The University of Michigan class contains only recruits who were offered by the University of Michigan coaching staff. It contains only recruits that were heavily interviewed and scouted by the University of Michigan coaching staff, and then offered. These kids won't be coached by random division I coaches, they won't be in random division I nutrition and S&C programs. These are confounding variables that make the sample completely non-random.

You can't use starzzz to predict the success of a kid, because statistics doesn't work that way. A single kid isn't a meaningful sample. You can try to use them to predict the success of a class, but a class isn't a random sample.

P.S. Get off the blog already. You are 1) a complete bitch, 2) obnoxious, 3) you have a complete mismatch between your level of confident and your actual intelligence, 4) you're honestly garbage, and 5) I'd be shocked if your own mom even likes you. Get off the blog already, goddamn.

05/31/2018 - 11:09am I predict we go 9-3 and our

I predict we go 9-3 and our idiot fanbase loses its mind and starts calling for Harbaugh's head.

05/27/2018 - 3:56pm Just watched the finish and

Just watched the finish and was cheering for Will Power because of the name. Had no idea Quinton Washington was on that team.

Go Blue.

05/17/2018 - 12:27am Suuuper premature.
I'm all

Suuuper premature.

I'm all in for Shea (although I feel comfortable also if BP or DM has to play some snaps) but let's see him out there running around in a winged helmet before we start awarding trophies.

Go Blue.

04/23/2018 - 12:34am To my knowledge he is a

To my knowledge he is a student in good standing at the university.

04/18/2018 - 8:47am I believe the issue generally

I believe the issue generally is not that questions were football related questions, but rather that they were just bad questions.

04/16/2018 - 7:05pm No it's not tough to argue.

No it's not tough to argue. You looked like idiots at the time and with the benefit of hindsight you still look like idiots today.

You're going to look like idiots when you start calling for Coach Harbaugh's head when we don't win the Big Ten this season, too.

04/13/2018 - 2:42pm This will be a brutal season.

This will be a brutal season. The team will be very talented, particularly if Shea is eligible to run the offense and if we can find a tackle to protect him.

However the strength of schedule is absolutely brutal. I'm predicting a 9 win season and more moping, uninformed bitching, and general obnoxiousness from fans.

04/13/2018 - 9:34am Isn't it amazing how the

Isn't it amazing how the decisions of the coaches seem to make a lot more sense when we aren't operating with only 2% of the information that they have? That's a lesson that many posters here would do well to keep in mind....

04/13/2018 - 9:32am Also he's correct that Nick

Also he's correct that Nick Baumgardner doesn't know much of anything about Football.

He literally just reads this blog and then adds a little more "Michigan must do better" spin to it. Also his editors at Mlive were trash and frankly I don't think he's particularly intelligent or a good writer to begin with.

04/12/2018 - 1:45am I enjoy these threads where

I enjoy these threads where you report neat facts. Thank you for researching this stuff.