The Great J.J. Debate
If you've been listening to any draft talk at all, you've probably heard people either profess their love for J.J. McCarthy as the best QB in the draft or heard people lose their shit that anyone would consider taking him in the first round.
It seems to me that show hosts who are basically just fans and watch games are the ones who don't understand what the buzz is about. They look at box scores or think about how we beat Washington with Corum, Edwards, and the defense and figure case closed, he's a game manager. They put him in the Mac Jones box.
The people who really look at film or talk to scouts talk about his playmaking talent and his upside. But detractors will even use this as a negative--the "upside" means an unproven project who has never actually carried the team and the scout talk is a smokescreen. They think people only like J.J. for feelingsball reasons. (He's a winner! He's a leader!)
I've also heard people note that he's being used as a proxy for debating Michigan as a program and the legitimacy of the season.
J.J. being the hot topic has been kind of fun. It's still Michigan versus Everybody!
JJ won a Natty and only lost one game as a starter. He made, and has the ability to make, all the plays. GM's who pass him up in the draft, do so at their peril.
See, that's the problem. He's so fragile and won't be able to handle defeat. He only lost 2 games in 3 HS seasons as a starter and 1 in 2 college seasons. He doesn't know how to deal with defeat because he's never had to. I tell ya, he'll just collapse when he loses that first NFL game.
- JJ's detractors, probably wearing their Go Green or Bucknuts shirts.
Meanwhile:
Exactly - just look at how he and a few others handled the loss to Georgia in '21. Seeing the Bulldogs celebrate after their win - and, establishing a commitment to succeed.
Same thing after the disappointing loss to TCU.
If anything - those two losses contributed, IMO, significantly to the team's resolve and focus.
JJ is a very good QB and an exceptional leader / young man. Wishing him well.
JJ's accomplishments speak for themselves. College football fans are a fickle bunch, particularly when they have had gotten their asses kicked the last few years.
I believe JJ has all the tools to be an excellent pro. Let us not forget, he is only 21, If you want to talk about toughness, the Maryland game is an example of just how tough he is.
Time will tell of course, but JJ has all the tools, the physical skills and the intangibles that are much harder to develop.
I would not bet against him.
Many Seahawks fans think he won't even get picked on day two. Incredible. Let alone make sense when they pick at #16. "He didn't even throw for 3000 yards!" Yeah because he didn't need to. "Well he sucked in the PSU and Maryland games!" Yeah because he was hurt. "If the Seahawks draft him I'm gonna be mad!" "Penix, Penix, Penix!" OMFG kill me now.
It's funny because while he didn't throw a lot in the PSU game...he decidedly did NOT suck. (maryland was a bad game tho, yes. he had 3 bad games in 28 starts)
He was, what, 7-8 against a PSU pass rush aiming only to take his head off from the snap. I thought he handled it beautifully! But there was no way that pass game, against that rush, wasn't going to be a Pick-6 and/or get his head crushed in at some point. Changing to all-run-all-the-time probably saved his life...
Passing against PSU that afternoon was a killer mistake waiting to happen. Sherrone out-smarted them like a boss. That JJ only shrugged and smiled with the win (as happy as anyone that day) says volumes about him...
I knew that, you knew that, they didn't know that. An ankle injury prevented him from planting his foot and throwing normally, not to mention the effectiveness of the PSU pass rush, made running the ball much more attractive. In the Maryland game, the following week, he was still dealing with the ankle injury.
People just want to look at passing yards and rushing yards to judge QB play. Even when you point out they played in a system that didn't require that, they don't care.
I want to see JJ in Seattle. It’s a custom fit for him.
I do too that's why I was arguing with those clowns. They'd be lucky to have him and yet they have no clue.
I really thought he was going to Seattle at 16. But at this point with all the hype around him I don't see him lasting past pick 10. Likely with a team trading up to get him. Guess at this point I'm just hoping he doesn't go to any team in the NFC North (unless its the Lions of course) or AFC West.
I seriously doubt that he gets past Denver, who is at 12.
This picture is one of the most iconic pictures in NCAA football I can think of, and it's barely over a year old.
It sure is aging like the finest of wines.
Green with envy or seeing red? They demand you see them at their worst.
Who the Fuck is Mel Kiper Jr?
Mel Kiper Sr.'s son.
Are the DNA tests back yet?
Nice...
Yeah? How’s your mother doin’?
Some idiot who thinks he knows something about football. :-O
Mel Kipers hair knows more about football than he does.
The "pride" of Essex Community College (wherever that is).
+1 for use of the term "NATTY" as I encourage others of us near 50 to accept this glorious word in its current context and relevance to Michigan football.
I had someone challenge me the other day regarding my lack of objectivity toward JJ my very obvious and outspoken Michigan fandom comes through with bias.
I agreed it is impossible as I watched him make every throw going 27-1 at Michigan.
I do not know if he is the best QB in the class but I will argue he has the lowest floor and the most upside.
I don't know, man. I think JJ has the highest floor and arguably the most upside.
*FACEPALM* ^^^ YES highest FLOOR! *dolt*
A glorious thing of beauty!!!
Counterpoint: Tim Tebow also had a two-year stretch where he won a title, 22 games in a row, made plays.
I do believe JJ will have a very good pro career, but nothing is a guarantee.
Tim Tebow was praised for reworking his entire throwing motion in the lead up to the draft. That was a very clear red flag.
I know it's obvious, but they are very, very different prospects.
Tom Brady was the 199th pick in the sixth round.
How many picks were there in that 6th round?
commas are important
So I think JJ is great but the "he won games" stat, I understand why people aren't convinced by that. More convincing is saying "he made the throws in the key moments to beat Bama and OSU, in Penn St they went to the run game because their right tackle couldn't pass block chop Robinson." Saying "his record as a starter" is something people say about lesser QBs, and is a thing that also sorta ignores FB is more than just the QB
SO did Stetson Bennett.
That being said he could use another few years of college.
As one 🐐 exits, another goat enters.
I don't think it's a real debate. JJ's situational performance (YPA in obvious passing downs like 3rd and 6+) make it very clear he's elite and possibly the best in the draft. He is also nearly 2 years younger than the other "top" QBs in this year's draft, meaning he has more development runway and upside to unlock.
The case against him is basically total passing yardage, which is junior high level analysis.
Probably the most underrated quality JJ has is his 3rd down conversion %. There rarely was a case where it would be 3rd and obvious passing down where I wasn't pretty confident that JJ would pick up the first down either by his arm or his legs. We had so many big plays on 3rd down this season. I know it was never a close game but against MSU early he converted multiple 3rd and longs. The Tyler Morris TD was on 3rd down in the Rose Bowl and the Roman Wilson TD vs OSU was also on 3rd and long.
At the NFL level, what is most valuable about JJ's mobility is his ability to extend the play and keep looking down field. He throws very well on the run too especially when rolling to his right. Caleb Williams has that ability too and he looks more "Mahomes-esque" when doing it so I think that is why he has so much buzz. But objectively speaking, I don't see one particular thing as a passer that Williams, Maye, or Daniels does definitively better than JJ.
Unpopular take, but I would bet money that Caleb Williams is not successful in the NFL
As a BEARS fan I am concerned. Williams frustrations at USC this year were not conducive for what he will face in Chicago with the #1 overall expectations and what they can surround and protect him with. Let alone a coach who might have to WIN NOW to save his job.
Trading back and getting a kings ransom once or twice and JJ on the bench for a year behind a free agent starter is much more appealing.
The Bears literally had the easiest fix in the history of football and they wanted to do it. All they had to do was sign Harbaugh to coach. They would trade back in the draft. Draft Brock Bowers, and you have Cole Kmet as your tight ends with DJ Moore Justin fields. Draft is stronger old line. You now have a great running game with a great running quarterback, and a big wide receiver and two. Now you control the clock and field possession.
As a hater of all teams Chicago and Ohio in every sport, ort I hope the Bears crap franchise stays far away from JJ.
I wouldn't bet money but I also wouldn't be shocked if Williams grossly underperforms vs. expectations as a #1 pick. While I don't think last year was necessarily representative since USC's defense sucked, I do think that he's a boom or bust QB on every play. He wants to hit a "five run HR" each time vs. taking what the defense gives him. Maybe with coaching he'll mature and learn but rock star college QBs who run around a lot to buy time and make plays aren't usually the greatest fit in the NFL. Not a hard and fast rule, of course, and Lamar Jackson has certainly become a better pocket passer (for example) but there's something about Williams' game that gives me pause.
Realistic expectations for a QB at #1 is - 50% chance he develops into a starter.
He makes unbelievable plays. Lots and lots of ‘wow’ moments. But can he make ten just good plays in a row?
The biggest pause to me is about Williams attitude and personality. Acting entitled and like a prima donna already without having played a down in the NFL.
8 figures in college tend to do this.
That’s actually a pretty popular take. Whoever takes him at the top is going to be making a huge mistake.