Previously: Alabama Offense 

While 'Bama's offense has had its ups-and-downs, the 'Bama defense has been a rock solid unit all season long. Boasting a hyper talented, NFL-ready secondary, the Crimson Tide have SP+'s #9 defense in the country. There are some weaknesses in the middle compared to past years, but the pass rush and secondary is legit and there's plenty to be frightened of here: 

 

The Film: We're sticking with the Georgia-Alabama tape for the defensive charting as well. Most recent game, a good performance for the defense, and it came against a high-level offense. Checks all the boxes. I will use some tape and reference observations while reviewing film from the other Alabama games this season, including Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Texas, and Auburn as well. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Alabama's defensive line is headlined by its superstar EDGE talent, although we should point out that their two blue chip rushers don't play together all that much. Alabama tends to go with two DTs and their beefy SDE on standard downs, with only one of the two star rushers on the field. Only on passing downs do you see the SDE kick inside and be replaced on the perimeter by the other rusher. The two rushers that trade places as the stand-up EDGE are Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. Both are starred on the diagram, though Turner gets the shield because he is projected for the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while Braswell is more thought of as 2nd round range. Both are expert pass rushers and PFF doesn't differentiate much between their rushing abilities (89.8 vs. 88.6), nor could I find a difference in my review. Both are terrors I would like to see suiting up for the Detroit Lions in the near future. 

The rest of the DL is much less flashy, and it's the DT spot where you see arguably the biggest departure from the typical Alabama team. The foursome of Tim Keenan III, Tim Smith, Jaheim Oatis, and Damon Payne Jr. are all solid players but Alabama doesn't quite have that level of terrifying DT talent that they normally do. None are cyan'd, but none are starred either. Merely decent. The SDE that is nearly DT-sized is 292 lb. Justin Eboigbe, who I don't think has much rushing juice but is a good run defender from the outside and is comfortable moving inside on passing downs. He came close to a star, but ultimately fell short. Reserves on the edges include Quandarrius Robinson, who is occasionally spelling Braswell/Turner, and Jah-Marien Latham, who backs up Eboigbe. 

The linebacker position is rather ho-hum, a primarily three-man rotation of Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell, and Trezmen Marshall. Lawson and Marshall were the nominal starters most of the season but Campbell has moved to take on the title of starter over Marshall late in the year. Campbell is their best coverage LB, an area the other two struggle, while Lawson is their best blitzer. They have varied skillsets and each are capable of making plays, but also being exploited in the right matchups. This positional group, like DT, is a bit of a step down from the usual Nick Saban defense. 

What is not a departure from the Saban standard is the secondary, where Alabama boasts the best cornerback tandem in college football. Kool-Aid McKinstry was a true freshman starter at CB on Alabama's 2021 national championship team and was immediately placed on NFL Draft radars, where he has stayed ever since. As expected, Kool-Aid will be a first round pick in 2024 and he's joined on the outside by Terrion Arnold, who has played very well this season too. I think Kool-Aid is a bit better than Arnold, with Arnold being the one more often targeted by opposing defenses, but the 6'0" Arnold has worked his way into the back-end of 1st round projections due to his play this season. If either outside corner has to miss a play, Trey Amos comes on in relief. He played a bit against Georgia and I honestly felt there was no visible drop-off from the starters. 

At safety, Alabama is rolling out starters at the opposite ends of the experience spectrum with 6th year Jaylen Key, a UAB transfer, starting next to mega-5* Caleb Downs, who is a true freshman. Downs has played exceptionally well this season and earns a star from me, impressive for a Tr Fr safety. Key I was less impressed with but I don't have anything particularly negative to say about him either. The DB starters as a whole log the most snaps on the defense, so there is little room for reserves, but next man up at S is Kristian Story, who splits Downs and Key in the middle in experience as a RS Jr. The HSP/nickel, which 'Bama calls the "STAR", is Malachi Moore. A fourth year player, Moore is both a figurative and literal star, excellent as a run defender and in coverage. This secondary has no real weakness and boatloads of NFL talent. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: how they do damage]

Base set: Alabama is a pretty standard 4-2-5 team with their nickel being the "STAR" HSP (Moore is 6'0"/198, so fundamentally a DB). It usually looks like this: 

I didn't see much change when Georgia went into 12, other than Alabama rolling a safety down and playing tighter to the line. Moore has played 80.8% of defensive snaps this season so he doesn't come off the field a whole lot. The bigger change is what happens on the DL, where you go from the standard four man front to the pass rush package with two stand-up EDGEs: 

I saw a bit of 4-1-6 but very little in the way of five man fronts. Not a ton of intrigue. 

Man or zone coverage: Saban is running his signature Pattern-Match scheme, the Cover 1/Cover 3 hybrid that no one else besides Belichick has the patience/talent to implement successfully. Seth covered it one of his first Neck Sharpies and I will be embedding the same snippet he used in the Citrus Bowl FFFF four years ago: 

Shown here is the left side of the "Liz" variant:

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So all of this is kind of like Quarters: you're numbering receivers, and watching if they go vertical. But you're reading the receiver in front of you (in Quarters they both read the #2) and matching your coverage to what he does (hence the name). Simplified: if your guy goes vertical or angled in, you play Cover 1, if he goes hard inside or outside you play Cover 3, passing off and catching whoever enters your zone.

The thing it's most like is basketball zones, where you stay with your man until he crosses another defender, and you pass him off to that guy.

Thus it's a mix of predominantly man coverage schemes (Cov1) and zone coverage (Cov3) depending on how the play unfolds. Alabama uses this coverage out of both 1-High and 2-High looks, mixing up those sets with regularity. 

Pressure: Alabama was pretty un-blitzy in this game, rushing more than four players on just 14% of charted, non-QB sneak plays. Helps to have two NFL pass rushers that allow you to feel good about getting pressure through only rushing four! They also weren't a very heavy drop-8 team, rushing fewer than four on only 5% of charted, non-QB sneak snaps. Most of the time they were just sending four against Georgia. 

Dangerman: There are a lot of possibilities for this title but EDGE (nominal SAM) Dallas Turner is my pick because he is a major matchup concern for Michigan as a star pass-rusher and is the one the NFL likes a little bit more in the duo of him and Chris Braswell. Either would work, or any number of players in the secondary, but Turner is the one I'm going with. Turner was the nation's top EDGE prospect when he committed to Alabama in the 2021 recruiting class and surprise, surprise, three years later he's a major talent projected for the first round of the NFL Draft. 

Turner came into Alabama at 242 lbs. and they ultimately opted not to do much with that, beefing him up to 252 but leaving him there due to the fact he's a stand-up EDGE who has to cover occasionally (think Ojabo). But Turner is definitely at his best pinning his ears back and going and getting the QB: 

Hello! Pure speed rushing is Turner's major strength but he had some good run defense moments in this game. He's not the sort of edge that is going to be a run-stuffing anchor because of his size, but he is the sort of edge you don't want to run a toss sweep towards, since he can swim off a blocker and chase down rushers in open space in a hurry: 

#15 to the bottom of the DL

When he's on the field with Braswell on a 3rd down, the two NFL rushers can combine to cause mayhem, instilling a fear in QBs that lead to bad decisions/near-disasters: 

Highlights from his three seasons at Alabama: 

No way around it: Turner is right there with Chop Robinson as the best pure pass-rusher from the EDGE position that Michigan has seen all season. JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer were good players on OSU, but neither were true rush terrors (both being better in run defense but more lacking as a rusher). Turner is on Robinson's level as a lightning quick burst, electric athlete who the NFL is clamoring for. He is the biggest matchup nightmare that the Crimson Tide present to  Michigan and resources will have to be set aside to deal with Turner's prowess. 

 

Overview

The Alabama defense is yet another in a long line of stiff tests that Michigan has seen over the stretch run of the season. Dating back to the PSU game, Michigan will now have faced four of the top nine SP+ defenses and they physically can't play one of those nine (themselves). This has been a murderer's row going from PSU to OSU to Iowa and now to Alabama. All elite units of varying stripes and Alabama fits squarely in that grouping. 

We can start with what Alabama does well: the secondary. The Crimson Tide boast an elite secondary of hyper talented players who are well trained and disciplined. Their 93.0 PFF coverage grade as a team is 2nd in the country, 0.1 behind... Michigan. And let me tell you, Alabama has played some significantly better QBs/passing game talent than Michigan's defense has, going up against LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, and Georgia, just as a start. This group has been battle tested by high-level QBs and elite receivers and has lived to tell the tale. 

It starts with the dynamite tandem of outside corners, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold, both projected by various NFL Draft prognosticators to be selected in the first round. McKinstry is a three-year starter and has been on radars over the duration of his collegiate career. I didn't see a ton of him against Georgia, since the Dawgs seldom targeted him and then he left early after entering concussion protocol (he is fine). My one clip of him in coverage was when he switched off into a safety-like zone and was creeping for a potential INT, which Carson Beck did not see: 

Full highlights from games where he was targeted more: 

As a whole, the phenomenon demonstrated in the Georgia game (UGA avoiding throwing at McKinstry) was not unusual for Kool-Aid. He has only been targeted 37 times all season on 454 coverage snaps, nearly half the amount of Arnold on a roughly identical number of coverage snaps. The Georgia game reflects that, as UGA threw at Arnold quite often, with mixed success. Arnold PBU'd some: 

He did get beat a few times, mostly for small gains. Georgia in particular liked throwing quick comebacks routes against him for 5-7 yard gains which feels like something Michigan could try as a way to get JJ in rhythm and keep the offense on schedule/nerf the pass rush: 

But even when balls were completed against Arnold, he was often in really good position and it was just a better throw and catch: 

McKinstry is seen as a top-half of the first round sort of NFL prospect, in the same range as Dallas Turner, while Arnold is more in the back-end to early 2nd. Both corners are terrific college players and more than ready for the pros. Michigan's WRs have their work cut out for them, to say the least. 

The safeties, Jaylen Key and Caleb Downs are the aforementioned mix of experience/talent, Downs the Tr Fr elite 5* and Key the Who Dat recruit turned UAB transfer. Downs did some great work against Brock Bowers in this game, carrying him down the seam here and creating an interception opportunity for his teammates: 

Downs got his Alabama career started by being toasted by Xavier Worthy in the Texas game back in September: 

But his PFF grades have ticked up considerably and by the time early December rolled around, Downs had become a star. He doesn't grade out great as a blitzer, but he rarely does it. As a coverage safety and an open-field tackler/run defender, he's already a Dude. Keep his name in mind for the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Key is maybe the weakest member of the 'Bama secondary, the lowest PFF grade among the starters by a healthy margin and on the hook for the only truly explosive play that the Crimson Tide allowed to Georgia: 

If there's someone that Roman Wilson could perhaps blow by deep down the field, it would seem to be Key. The final piece of the secondary is the HSP/Nickel called the "STAR", a position held down by Malachi Moore. The fourth year player is a do-it-all, versatile DB who fills a variety of roles for the Alabama defense. He blew up one of Georgia's signature attempts to get Brock Bowers the football, shedding a blocker and then bringing down the much larger TE for a TFL: 

It was also Moore who had the near interception on the clip of Downs carrying Bowers down the seam. Moore's coverage was pretty good but I thought he was at his best cleaning up screens/checkdowns underneath and stopping plays from going from bad to worse. All five members of this secondary are between good and great tacklers, with very little sloppiness. They can all cover as well, with Georgia struggling to gain separation against this defensive back group. It is going to be tough sledding and Michigan will need to be creative. 

The coverage problem is compounded by the pass-rush issue. Dallas Turner is sensational, but Chris Braswell is not far behind. He didn't have any sacks against Georgia like Turner, but I did document this rush that, along with help from the DT, forces Beck into a sack for Justin Eboigbe: 

EDGE #41 to the bottom

Braswell does have wow moments on his reel this season, including this game-altering strip sack of Joe Milton in the Tennessee game, leading to a scoop-n-score for the Tide: 

Braswell's pass rush grade on PFF is a hair behind Turner's but they're pretty similar. The NFL likes Turner a bit more but they are equivalent college players, Braswell an inch shorter but three pounds heavier. Potato, potato. The one bit of good news for Michigan is that Braswell and Turner play the same position, the SLB/EDGE, stand-up pass-rusher role. They do join the field together on passing downs, but the majority of plays that Georgia ran were facing an Alabama defensive front featuring only one of the two. Staying on schedule and out of obvious passing downs (3rd & longs particularly) will be paramount. 

If there is a hole in the pass defense, it may be over the middle, exploitable by tight ends. Bowers led UGA in receiving yards, though he was largely kept in check (from watching that game and comparing it to normal, it is clear Bowers was not close to 100%, which played a role). More interesting was Ja'Tavion Sanders' 5 catches, 114 yard performance for Texas against Alabama in September. Yes that was a while ago, but the reason I bring this up is what TE catches against 'Bama tends to look like compared to WR catches. When wide receivers have had success against Alabama, other than the occasional Dusting The Safety clip, most of them are really nice throws and catches to elite receivers (Malik Nabers of LSU, for example) that beat good coverage. To the contrary, there are some TE clips where no one is in the neighborhood and that feels like something Michigan could attack. Here's one that caught my eye in the Texas game: 

I've seen some moments with wheel routes as well, RBs matched up on to LBs or in some cases, Braswell or Turner. Even just dump-off screens targeting sections of the field between dropping EDGEs/LBs and the DB level can find pockets of space that can be free yards picked up through the air: 

LB Deontae Lawson's 41.8 coverage grade and LB Trezmen Marshall's 49.9 coverage grade are definitely something to keep an eye on. Ohio State's LBs had similar coverage weaknesses and Michigan responded with AJ Barner and Colston Loveland combining for 7 catches on 7 targets for 133 yards. If the TEs match up with safeties, it's going to be harder to make big time gains, but sometimes you need guys to make a play. Carson Beck and Brock Bowers make a play here: 

Moving back to the pass-rush front, if there is one piece of solace for Michigan, it's that none of the Alabama DTs have much organic pass-rush juice, which is why Justin Eboigbe slides inside on passing downs but even he is not a player I'm super worried about getting after the QB. Compared to OSU, which had the electric talent of Michael Hall Jr. rushing the passer up the middle, Alabama doesn't offer the same abilities to test the guards/center. Turner and Braswell are the focus and obviously will be a major concern. Alabama didn't blitz a ton against Georgia, as I outlined in the "pressure" section of the piece. When blitzes do come, they are usually five man pressures with a linebacker or corner rushing (or both with the stand-up SAM/EDGE dropping). Also: most of the blitzes they called were run blitzes. Generally speaking Alabama seemed very content to rush four and believe that their two studs would get home (the 2021 Michigan playbook). 

Something that could counterattack their pass-rushing abilities is the scramble. Beck scrambled for a first down on 3rd & 7 here: 

The QB run is a vulnerability that popped up quite often when I was reviewing the tape of 'Bama's defense across the full season, both on QB draws and scrambles. The scrambles of LSU QB Jayden Daniels ripped Alabama apart. Here's a highlight reel of his performance in that game with plenty of scrambles you can observe, one of which I'm having the video start with: 

Dallas Turner whips the LT but Daniels sees it and steps up. Alabama hasn't been spying the QB much in any matchups that I've seen from them, and particularly if their Pattern-Match coverage on a given play has morphed into Cover 1, there will be tons of room to scramble. JJ McCarthy is not quite the level of electrifying athlete as the Heisman winner Daniels, but we saw him rip off huge scrambles against Ohio State two straight years. He's going to have to be ready to do that against the Tide in Pasadena and if he does, there will be room for it to have success and extend drives. 

Transitioning into the rushing game, we can start with the other half of the QB run game, QB draws. Daniels scored a TD on one against 'Bama, and it was actually Tennessee and Milton that caught my eye the most with this, executing several with success. Here's one: 

QB rushing stats against Alabama this season in SEC play (excluding sacks): 

• Ole Miss: 7 rushes, 38 yards 
• Miss St: 3 rushes, 28 yards 
• TAMU: 7 rushes, 34 yards
• Arkansas: 10 rushes, 64 yards
• Tennessee: 12 rushes, 92 yards 
• LSU: 10 rushes, 167 yards(!!)
• Kentucky: 2 rushes, 3 yards 
• Auburn: 25 rushes, 178 yards 
• Georgia: 6 rushes, 6 yards 

A wide array of performances, from Auburn's QB run-heavy approach to Kentucky and Georgia, who called very little QB run (Beck's rushes were nearly all scrambles), but definitely some glimmers of optimism among teams with running QBs, from LSU to Tennessee to Arkansas, not to mention the Auburn game. Michigan has JJ McCarthy, a QB who once out-ran Blake Corum in the open field. He's not as thick as Joe Milton, but he has speed and natural running instinct. It needs to be used as a way to get Michigan free yards, be it QB draws to keep 'Bama off balance, or scrambles that bail Michigan out of instances where their tackles get fried by Braswell/Turner. Once you establish that threat of QB run, the defense has to start accounting for it, and that's where you begin deleting guys from the box. 

As for the conventional rushing game, the unusually ordinary nature of Alabama's defensive tackles is something that the Michigan offense has an opportunity to target. Georgia had a mixed day on the ground but there were definitely moments where they got good push on the interior, an OL reached the second level, and a chunk gain developed: 

I don't have many individual notes on the DTs, be it starters Tim Keenan III and Tim Smith, or reserves like Nate Oatis. They are all pretty similar in caliber, though Damon Payne Jr. might be the weakest at this time. One thing I believe Alabama did well on the ground against UGA was have their LBs in the right spot + DB help to make up for some of their vulnerability at tackle. Here's an example: 

Oatis is moved here and there's room for the first down but it doesn't get far beyond this because the S Downs is right there to make a tackle. But make no mistake, there are glimmers of optimism for Michigan on the ground against Bama's defensive interior: 

What I don't like on the ground against Alabama's defense, however, is runs out into space where you're making linemen have to block Alabama's athletic LBs/DBs coming downhill. Georgia ran into this problem twice, having two drives stuffed on short yardage plays where they tried to target the perimeter on variations of toss/sweeps, rather than the vulnerability up the middle and they got crushed by massive RPS wins for Bama, who had them outflanked in speed and numbers. Here's one, exterminated by a timely run blitz: 

A symphonic effort there from the LBs Marshall and Lawson + Dallas Turner and Downs all ganging up to overwhelm the Georgia blockers and blow this up. That it happened once on 3rd & 2, forcing a punt, was bad... that it happened again later in the game was even worse. This was a different example where the same problems were occurring, Lawson sprinting into space and making a tremendous TFL: 

I'd say to keep the RBs more between the tackles and let the QB run to the perimeter + more deceptive runs like jet sweeps and reverses accomplish that. It felt like Georgia tipped their hand too much and Alabama punished the schematic weakness with the overwhelming talent they boast on defense. The only good thing they got out of those failed short yardage situations was when they got to go against tendency and run PA off of it later in the game, which got a receiver isolated on Arnold, who was trailing the play and very grabby, leading to a DPI flag: 

I think a strong run game can be built against Alabama but it's going to need to target the defensive tackles, use JJ McCarthy, get creative on the perimeter, and for the love of God, no sweeps/tosses or stretch zone that challenge Alabama defenders tackling in space. That's their whole thing!! 

 

[Patrick Barron]

What does this mean for Michigan? 

Alabama has a very strong defense and there's no two ways about that. In contrast to Michigan or any of the elite B1G defenses, 'Bama had to face a litany of high-end offenses in an SEC loaded with firepower, plus scheduling Texas in the non-conference. Going off of SP+ offense rankings, they've faced #2 LSU, #5 Georgia, #6 Texas, #20 Texas A&M, and #21 Ole Miss, offenses that are all better than the second best offense Michigan has played (Penn State). There is no reason to doubt the achievements of the Crimson Tide defense and Michigan is going to have to have a plan ready. Gaining traction against this defense, especially without the true game-breaking receiver talent that teams like LSU and Texas used to crack Alabama open, will be an uphill battle. Based on tape and statistical results from all the games that Alabama has competed in this year, the following is how I would approach the Rose Bowl.

The biggest objective for Michigan's offense in this game is staying on schedule/ahead of the sticks. With two offensive tackles who have had their wobbles in pass protection, there is every reason to be quite concerned about the matchup of Henderson/Trente Jones against a Chris Braswell or a Dallas Turner. Since those two players largely only play simultaneously on 3rd & long sorts of passing downs, Michigan has to find ways to avoid getting into those situations as much as possible. If only one of those star rushers is on the field, you can devote resources to doubling or chipping them (giving your tackle help), but when both are on the field, it's a much more difficult task.  

With that in mind, running the ball effectively is the key to the game. Michigan is going to need its interior OL to win their matchups with the Alabama defensive tackles, which feels doable, but also be tricky enough from a schematic standpoint to stop Alabama's LBs/safeties from keying in on the run and holding those runs where you get traction up front to only ~3 yards. Thus, JJ McCarthy has to be a central part of the designed run game. You can't have the same fears you've had in the regular season about injuring JJ in this one; it's the CFP, this is the end of the season anyway. I think they should be prepared to dial up as many as ten running plays for McCarthy, be it reads, QB draws, or QB power sort of stuff.

Those concepts have shown effectiveness against Alabama this season and will help make the conventional run game for the RBs more effective by putting stress on the Alabama linebackers. Moreover, the running game needs to be diverse and deceptive, not just in terms of gap vs. zone plays but I want to see Semaj Morgan involved. I wouldn't mind seeing Roman Wilson get a carry or two on a jet sweep. Reverses, end-arounds, empty the bag of tricks. Any creative play you have to get the offense 5-7 yards and keep the chains moving should be on the table in this one. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

The passing game will need to get creative too. Georgia struggled to get separation against Alabama and I expect Michigan will as well. The best passing attacks against Alabama have been those with NFL wide receivers, which Michigan does not have. Michigan is going to need to do what Georgia did in sticking more to short stuff, particularly on standard downs. Those quick hitches/comebacks routes against Terrion Arnold seems like something Michigan could use, but this feels like another TEs game. Georgia's fixation and attachment to Bowers made him a focal point of the game-plan, whereas Michigan doesn't have a weapon worth that much attention and has the luxury of multiple TEs about as good as each other. Playing out of 12 personnel and targeting whichever TE is matched up with an LB, or tossing a jump ball to a Loveland when covered by a shorter DB have to be key matchups to look for.

Additionally, this feels like a good Donovan Edwards game. I'm less excited about the prospect of screens because of 'Bama's athleticism in space, but a few well-designed/well-crafted screens have the potential to grind out some yards too. Angle routes and wheels seem more fruitful. Finally, if Michigan gets into obvious passing downs, the scrambling ability of JJ McCarthy has to be ready to play a role in keeping Michigan's offense alive. He's going to need to save them on some occasions to keep the ball rolling and pick-up free yards when the protection isn't there, because other QBs have shown that is another weakness of Alabama. 

It certainly will not be an easy endeavor but there is a pathway to enough points to win. Alabama played a damn good game against Georgia but still allowed 321 yards on 5.4 YPP. Not gashed, but not throttling Georgia either. Some score effects on that last drive, yes, but Georgia also had enough offensive success between the short passing game, hitting one deep shot, and rushing for 3.5 YPC on the ground to score 24 points (and that's with a missed FG on a drive that entered the red zone). Georgia did that with their two best receivers banged up and a QB who offers no run threat. Michigan has a much more mobile QB and should take advantage of that, their receivers might not be as good as Georgia's but Auburn's plan of "all QB run" moved the ball at 5.7 YPC. There are ways to move the ball against Alabama... standing in the pocket and taking your chances against that secondary and those edge rushers is not one of them.