The Opposition Explained: If for some reason you’ve avoided it so far, it might be a good time to read my piece on the Stunt 43 defense.

Formation Notes: This was Gun 12 Double Stacks.

They also had a formation with Donovan Edwards at wideout, which I called Trips Empty.

This Rutgers passing formation I just called Nickel Wide AA for the gaps the LBs are pressuring.

And when they were in the B gaps I called it BB.

Substitution Notes: Starters the whole way; Filiaga got a late drive in place of Keegan, blew an assignment, and was promptly replaced again by Keegan.

[After THE JUMP: Sow the same seed of rapacious license and oppression over again, and it will surely yield the same fruit according to its kind.]

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M26	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins Unbalanced	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Power CF	Haskins	7	0.62
Pre-snap M has All step off the line and Schoonmaker step on, going unbalanced with Schoonmaker covered. RPS+2 this delivers the cocked C to Zinter and M has numbers. Stueber(+1) and Schoonmaker(+2) blow out Tverdov and seal Fatukasi. Vastardis(-1) bounced off Fogg while trying to turn, and All(-1) goes inside to give up the numbers advantage instead of hunting the SAM (Singleton) outside. Haskins(+1) has to follow him and this turns a huge play into one where he grinds through Singleton for a few extra.
M33	2nd	3	Pistol 3TE Unbalanced	4-3-4	4-4 Under	2	Run	8	Split Zone	Haskins	5	0.43
RPS-1 this is supposed to hit backside R has a safety rotating down to stick. On the FS All(+1) got a good hit Schoonmaker(+0.5) got a turn on the SAM so a bounce is the traveling CB vs Haskins(-1) who doesn't take it. Inside Zinter(-2) failed to move the NG with his blockdown as that guy rips Vastardis(+1) by. Vas improvises, putting one arm on the C and using the other grab the LB's shoulderpad (refs+1) so Haskins has somewhere to squeeze. Rotating S sticks.
M38	1st	10	Offset Ace Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Pin & Pull	Haskins	11	1.03
Vastardis(+1) good seal on the NG, Zinter(+1) knocks Fatukasi on his ass, Schoonmaker(+1) planted the Jack inside, and we're in business except Hayes(-2) lost his blockdown to the other DT. All(+1) rescues this by dealing that guy an arm while still chasing the WLB but that just delays the tackle.
M49	1st	10	Gun 12 Double Stacks	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	5.5	Pin & Pull Read	Haskins	7	0.60
Both WRs are stacked behind their TEs and running smoke screens but that's a presnap read since McNamara(+1, read+1) reads the backside DE while the SAM is charging in. Good idea (RPS+1) since they're still running into a 6-man box and RU is slanting as always. Vastardis(+1) gets a strong kick. Hayes(-1) is looking for a kickout on the MLB when the whole idea is to have him lead block, finding that guy only after Haskins(+1) has gotten impatient and chosen to grind through that LB for a decent gain instead. Risk works out; results-based charting.
O44	2nd	3	Pistol Ace Twins Unbalanced	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Counter Trey	Corum	2	-0.65
#2 WR covered so both TEs can be off and M can flip Rutgers to an even front and attack away from the nose (RPS+1). RU adjusts by blitzing the WLB but Keegan(+1) dealt with it. Hayes(+1) stays engaged to a flaring DT until Zinter (+0.5) kicks and Hayes can combo to the Jack who's had to jump back outside after Schoonmaker(+0.5) arms him and moves on to a safety. Impressive assignment football by these three. All(+0.5) gets around and kicks the MLB in the hole that Corum(+0.5) set up for him, and this can go all the way except the SAM got to fly in free because Stueber(-2) tripped out of his stance on the backside. Dang.
O42	3rd	1	Pistol Ace Tight	4-3-4	4-4 Under	NA	Run	9	Dive	Corum	1	0.72
Slant at this (RPS-1) and both Zinter(-2) and Stueber step out into air; Zinter letting the C in unmolested. That should kill it but Vastardis(+2) turned the blitzer around and Corum(+1) comes in low enough to get the 1st against two unblocked dudes.
O41	1st	10	Offset Heavy	4-3-4	4-4 Under	2	Run	8	Power GT	Haskins	2	-0.35
M has 8 men on the line of scrimmage which UPDATE: is legal but makes the inside guy ineligible. Honigford(-2) lets Tverdov slant outside of him then falls down. RPS-2 since slant ruined all the blocks and RU brought a S down to overload both edges, giving them a free crasher and no hope of a keep (McNamara+1, read+1). Vastardis(+1) had a monster kick and Stueber(+0.5) rode his slanter out to make a small hole.
O39	2nd	8	Gun 13 4w	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	6.5	TE Hitch	Honigford	Inc	-1.12
Passing down and M is running three TEs in routes and throwing to the former OT. Six-man rush is picked up McNamara has all day (Prot+2) to throw. CJ is open underneath, Schoonmaker(route-2) is blocking his LB more than trying to get open but they're all alone out there be the FS finally kens that the fade to All(route+) is open as McNamara stares at it. He then gives up and throws late to Honig, who has a CB grabbing his back and arm for some light PI (refs-1 so I can stay consistent later) but lets it go off his hands. If this goes at All it's a good shot at a big play. If this goes at Schoonmaker it's a good shot at a DPI. If this goes at CJ it's a free 6 yards so (BR, 2, Prot 3/3, McNamara-2)
O39	3rd	8	Offset Flex Wk	4-2-5	Nickel Wide AA	2	Run	6	Split Zone	Corum	13	1.99
They catch RU with two LBs inside after motioning All across, audible to a run, and take the free gap that should be worth 5-6 yards (we'll pretend they're smart enough to go for it on 4th and short so this can be RPS+1). Vastardis(+1) locks out the other LB who was backing out, Zinter(+1) gets around the wide DT, and Corum(+2) breaks a tackle at 5 yards from a flowing DE, then drags Fatukasi for another 5.
O26	1st	10	Gun Trips Unbalanced	4-2-5	Nickel Over	2	Run	7	Inside Zone	Corum	2	-0.17
Schoonmaker(-1) runs after the Jack like they never showed him Stunt 43 in practice this week and blocks nobody. Hayes(-2) hasn't either and gets locked into the backfield. We have a fake read (too short to be real) on the CB so RU has an extra hitter out there too RPS-1. However Stueber(+1) has put his DE inside and the OLB is pinching so the frontside is open. Corum(-1) doesn't see it, tries to bounce the free CB instead, and trips over Hayes. This was supposed to be the part of the game that DIDN'T make me angry!
O24	2nd	8	Gun Empty Diamond	4-2-5	Nickel Over	2	Pass	5	Slant	Johnson	10	0.35
RPS+1 McNamara just has to read the BS S to see the slant open underneath. FWIW there was a screen set up to Corum if the first read wasn't there. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O14	1st	10	Pistol Heavy	4-3-4	5-3 Under	2	Run	8	Power GFZ	Corum	4	-0.02
Keegan(-1) messes it up by leaving the DT he and Hayes were comboing. Fatukasi shoots into Zinter(-2) who gets rocked back and now the frontside is all blown up. Backside open because Stueber(+1) blew his DE further in than the pincher wanted to go and Honigford(+1) locked out the DE, but it can't get far (RPS-1) because RU has their safety screaming down into this gap on the first sign of run action.
O10	2nd	6	Offset Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	8	Power Kick	Corum	5	0.07
Same thing and Keegan(-1) again lost his DT after Hayes(+1) delivered him all wrapped in a bow and went to pick off the WLB. Honigford(+1) turned out the looper and Zinter(+1) got extra on the kickout pull, but Schoonmaker(-1) got beat by Fatukasi. Corum(+0.5) runs through him and churns the pile to turn 3rd and 4 into 3rd and 1.
O5	3rd	1	Double Wing	4-4-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	ZR	Corum	3	1.28
Vastardis(-1) got beat backwards but Keegan(+1) and Hayes(+1) punched through the other DT and they're in. McNamara(+1, read+1) read a CB correctly.
O2	1st	Goal	I-form Heavy	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	Split Zone	Haskins	1	-0.69
RPS-1 because they blitz the S off the edge gambling there won't be a PA, and All(+1) can only pop him down in the lane. Jones(+1) and Hayes(-1) doubled a DE into the EZ but Hayes doesn't come off, and Vastardis(-1) got submarined by the NG, so there are three unblocked LBs to stick this after it turns back inside.
O1	2nd	Goal	Ace Heavy	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	QB Sneak	McNamara	0	-0.55
Nobody to chart here really. Vastardis(+0.5) got rocked back a tiny bit but I think they got it and there's no way to tell. McNamara(-0.5) for being short I guess?
O1	3rd	Goal	Ace Heavy	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	Down G	Haskins	1	2.45
Keegan(+1) pulls and wrecks the edge, Jones(+1) moved a DE enough to cut off an LB, Hayes(+1) buried a DT trying to shoot under him, and All(+1) popped Fatukasi for a walk-in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 7-0. 7 min 1st Q. I'm already exhausted from charting this. M gets the ball back with a minute left in the Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M28	1st	10	Gun Trips Empty	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7.5	TE Dig	All	24	2.17
Plenty of time vs a five-man rush (Prot+1) and M finds the bust and delivers where and when All can turn and rumble for an extra 14. I could chart these all day. (DO, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
O48	1st	10	Gun Trips Empty Covered	4-2-5	Nickel Over	1	Run	6	Bash TE lead	Corum	3	1.08
Weird formation to put material backside and run out the weak side but M waits 5 seconds for RU to move more guys to the open backside. It's indeed overwhelmed(RPS-1) as the MLB is racing backside before our G has no chance to get to him. Zinter(+2) creates an edge by getting a B-gap shootin DL on the ground, Stueber(+1) walls off a DE then gets to the DB. All(+1) outflanked and popped Fatukasi, but Corum(-2) went inside where there are still two guys unblocked. This is the same play they ran with 5 mins left, except this one is unbalanced.
O7	2nd	7	Gun Trips Tight	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	RPO	7	Slant/Power GF	Wilson	38(Pen+3)	1.14
Finally attack the fact that RU has sold its soul to the run. CJ points out a blitzy CB on his side pre-snap, but McNamara(RPO+1) knows this is just more YAC for Wilson(+1) who edges the safety who's been playing LB all day. RPS+3. (CA, 3, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
O3	1st	Goal	Pistol Twin TE	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	Split Zone F	Haskins	3	1.46
Hayes(+1) and Honigford(+1) double a DT into oblivion, Schoonmaker(+1) turns out an LB, Keegan(+1) handles the nose, Wilson(-1) only waves at the CB but Haskins can run through that guy when he's already in the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 14-3. 14 min 2nd Q. This was the Good Drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M32	1st	10	Pistol Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	8	Power CF	Corum	3	-0.38
RPS-1 get used to this because we're into the 8-man boxes now. Honigford(+0.5) gets to the WLB and falls down, which delays the CB traveling with All. Stueber(+1) clears out the DE, Vastardis(+1) stands up the SAM, and Corum(-2) has only to run off All's block. Instead he cuts All off and runs into the Honigford mess. Dude!
M35	2nd	7	Gun Trips Empty	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	Pass	5	RB Dig	Corum	8	1.43
Another take on the Diamond slant from before. All(+1) turns around and seals two LBs so Corum can squeeze out a couple more. (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
M43	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	Pass	6	Checkdown	Corum	3	-0.43
Wish I could see the all-22 bc McNamara has a long time to survey Cov1. Honigford(-1) lets the looper go around him so McNamara dumps it off to Corum. It's thrown sidearm and a bit too far inside because Stueber has a DE on a delayed rush upfield, so no YAC. Think there was probably a better throw with all that time but I don't know so (MA, 2, Prot 2/3, Honig-1, McNamara-1)
M46	2nd	7	Gun Trips Unbalanced	4-2-5	Nickel Over	2	Run	7	Pin & Pull	Corum	1	-0.88
Good play blown up because that NT just ripped past Vastardis(-2). Keegan(-1) could help but he's anxious to make his lead block so this goes nowhere despite a good block from Stueber(+1) and effective kicks from Zinter(+0.5) and Schoonmaker(+0.5).
M47	3rd	6	Gun Trips Str	4-3-4	5-1-5 Odd	1	Play-action	6	Split Flow Screen	All	-1	-0.92
They see something and check into that stupid TE split flow thing that they ran against WMU a bunch. It didn't work then and doesn't now, and didn't work when Josh Gattis's mentor John Donovan was running it at Penn State or Washington and hoo boy did I not want that to be the answer when I wondered where I'd seen someone try this before Michigan in 2019. WRs are all open vs Cover 2 but bc this is a screen they're all blocking instead and the only place to throw is the TE who's bracketed by the DE and Cov2 CB who have no other threats. RPS-4 please rip this weak-ass shit out of the playbook. (Not charted, screen, Prot n/a)
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-3. 8 min 2nd Q. Robbins spins a punt OOB at the three and the return from Korsak moves Michigan up to the RU40.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O40	1st	10	Gun Trips TE	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Play-action	8	PA Deep Dig	Johnson	23	0.61
Well now. RPS+2 and Prot+2 as RU bites on the weakest of weak PA. CB isn't even checking CJ(route+) as he stems in, hit on the money so he can YAC. (DO, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
O17	1st	10	Gun Twins	4-3-4	4=3 Over	2	Run	7.5	Arc/Power CT	Corum	3	-0.11
Reading the backside for an Arc keeper but two defenders out there so McNamara(+1, read+1) gives. RPS-1 as the SAM is now hanging in the slot and leaving the good old bubble room open. He meets Vastardis inside where the TE lined up and Schoonmaker(-1) is rocked back by the MLB. Bounce is there with lead blocker Hayes just shooting into the mass of kicked bodies but Corum(-2) spins inside and gets a now-free Fatukasi and a flowing DT after a short gain.
O14	2nd	7	Pistol Wk	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	Run	6	Arc Z Give	Corum	0	-0.35
McNamara(-1, read-1) should keep since the LB is pinching way in but DE set up outside Schoonmaker. What really ruins this play is Vastardis(-2) got whooped by the NT and a safety (RPS-1) is charging down as well.
O14	3rd	7	Empty 4w	4-2-5	Nickel Over	1	Pass	6	Slot Fade	Sainristil	Inc	-0.48
Put in the right spot but Sainristil is 5-10 so the right spot is right where a CB can punch it out. I know I’m doing this a lot but RPS-1 that's not the guy to do this to. (CA, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: FG(32). 17-3. 4 min 2nd Q. M gets the ball back with 0:22 left in the half after RU 4th and 10 attempt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O5	1st	10	Gun Twins	4-2-5	Nickel Under BB	1	Pass	7	Slant	Sainristil	51(Pen+3)	5.79
RU shows six, pressures, and a looper gets by Keegan(-1) but the LB who backed out isn't in his zone and Sainristil(+2, route+) has dusted the nickel. Throw is on the money and he's off to the races, finally stiffarming the CB at the 20 and almost hurdling a final fool. NT takes a cheap headshot at McNamara, who got up immediately, fwiw. NT is ejected for targeting. (DO+, 3, Prot 2/3, McNamara+2, Keegan-1)
O2	1st	Goal	Pistol 2TE Unbalanced	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	Split Zone	Haskins	0	-0.85
Check, not a belly read. If he reads the OLB that guy maybe doesn't pinch in so hard or McNamara could keep and try the open edge. All(+1) gets a hard shoulder on that guy but he's already on the hash this started on and RU is slanting frontside and bringing an Army of unblocked guys around. You're too scouted! (RPS-2) Clock keeps going a precious 3 seconds after forward momentum has stopped, nobody fights for the time back.
O2	2nd	Goal	Pistol Twin TE	5-3-3	Goal Line	NA	Play-action	NA	PA Deep Dig	Schoonmaker	Inc	-0.48
PA (RPS+2) gets two TEs open on split flow. Schoonmaker(route-) tripped out of the formation but got back up and has time to renovate the former Kogerland into a Schoonmaker's Schoonerworld but McNamara misses badly. M then takes TO and elects to kick a FG on 3rd down with 5 seconds left. (INx, 0, Prot n/a, McNamara-3).
Drive Notes: FG(20). 20-3. 2 seconds 2nd Q. It looks like they're having trouble getting the playcall in and that's why Harbaugh called timeout. It also may be he didn't trust Cade's accuracy at that moment. I still hate it. A low slant takes 3 seconds tops.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O39	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins Unbalanced	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	8	Split Zone	Haskins	3	-0.26
Fake read and RU knows it, pinching their SAM way in to so the kick is now at the hash and they're slanting the rest to the frontside and bringing a safety down to boot so RPS-2. Zinter(+0.5) got a little push but Vastardis(-0.5) is wiped out by the slanting NT.
O36	2nd	7	Gun Twins F flex	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	PEN	8	Illegal Snap	Vastardis	-5	-0.97
Motion All across, Vastardis(-1) moves the football and gets caught.
O41	2nd	12	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	Play-Action	6	Fade	Henning	Inc	-1.04
Safety rolls down and blitzes. A real PA might get him chasing the RB but it's so token he goes right for the QB who throws it up, RPS-1. Henning is getting held (refs-1) but they're not throwing it on either team if the ball's uncatchable. Want the QB to give his WR a shot here. (IN, 0, Prot n/a, McNamara-1)
O41	3rd	12	Gun Str F Flex	4-2-5	Nickel Wide AA	2	Run	6	Split Zone	Corum	2	-0.55
Same look as on the 1st drive, same check to the same play and this time Rutgers has seen it and checks as well to jam up the middle and drop back the two DEs. RPS-2 and double fuck you because Corum had to break 2 tackles last time. Amateur hour out here.
Drive Notes: Punt. 20-3. 12 min 3rd Q. This was so much worse than I feared.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M34	1st	10	Gun 2TE F Flex	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7	Hitch	Baldwin	7	0.70
Comes back to this and throws it a little short which takes Baldwin to the ground but also away from the CB. Zinter(-1) was losing a LB on a 5-man rush after plenty of time. Schoonmaker(route+) came open on the cross by using a back-turned ref as a rub. (CA-, 2, Prot 2/3, Zinter-1, McNamara+0.5)
M41	2nd	3	Pistol Str X Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Inside Zone	Corum	2	-0.75
Zinter(+2) smacks the nose across and gets to Fatukasi. Schoonmaker(+1) blew the DE down and either bounce is open as the J flies inside and Hayes stays to seal the guy handfighting with Keegan. Instead Corum(-2) slams up inside as if he's never practiced against the Stunt 43, runs into the Jack who's always there, and gets stopped after two yards and driven back.
M43	3rd	1	Pistol Heavy FB	4-4-3	4-4 Under	NA	Run	NA	Split Zone	Haskins	0	-0.99
Vastardis(-1) doesn't pick up a slant, empties to nobody. Zinter(-1) got crossed by the nose who was angled the other way. Still enough to try that lane but Haskins(-1) goes right into the mess in the middle and a blitzing S gets his legs.
Drive Notes: Punt. 20-10. 4 min 3rd Q. Michigan lined up to sneak, got RU to hop offsides, but didn't snap it, took a delay of game, then another penalty. I hate it so much. Punt sucks too of course.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M21	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	Pass	6	Slants	Sainristil	Inc	-0.59
Five-man rush doesn't get close (Prot+2). Window isn't huge but throw is at Sainristil's shoes. He can't bring it in. (IN, 1, Prot 2/2, McNamara-1)
M21	2nd	10	Gun 2TE F Trips	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Pass	6.5	TE Cross	All	Inc	-0.28
All day vs four-man rush (Prot+2) to find All sneaking behind the LBs. It's overthrown and he can't bring it in. If I had all-22 I'd probably see a very wide open Baldwin but Cade never looked backside. (IN, 1, Prot 2/2, McNamara-2)
M21	3rd	10	Gun Str F Flex	4-2-5	Nickel Under BB	2	Pass	6	Scramble	McNamara	7	0.12
Just a 3-man rush but Vastardis(-2) lets a DT slant inside of him, and Zinter(-1) is knocked back by another. McNamara escapes, has Corum(route+) but doesn't trust his arm and tries to run instead. He comes up 3 yards short. Giving him a break here. Hitch on backside was wide open if the protection didn't break down and there was a chance of a conversion that he created. (PR, n/a, Prot 0/3, McNamara+1, Vastardis-2, Zinter-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 13 min 4th Q. Five inaccurate passes in a row, none explicable. Everyone has theories.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M20	1st	10	Pistol Heavy	4-3-4	4-4 Under	2	Run	8	Power	Haskins	1	-0.47
SAM pinches but All(+1) rocks him back, but no gap because Honigford(-2) got held up on a DE who planted his leg, got his shoulder down, and refused to budge. Tip of the cap to that guy number 71...AH FACK IT'S OUR TRANSFER AARON LEWIS. Safety rolled down at the snap to take away a bounce (RPS-1), Zinter(-1) can't move Lewis either, and Vastardis(-1) lost the nose so Haskins(-1) can only burrow behind Filiaga(+0.5) getting a good seal on the other DT, but decides to bounce instead and gets less.
M21	2nd	9	Gun 2TE Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	8	Power	Corum	4	-0.05
Fake read sucks because Rutgers has mortgaged all of New Jersey on a backside run. It's the same exact play they just ran, except the new DE isn't Aaron Lewis. All(+1) and Schoonmaker(+1) get push on that guy and lock Fatukasi inside. Filiaga(-2) runs head first into Stueber's butt for no reason. Nobody for the CB who's got the edge and Corum(+1) can only power through him for a few. Sigh.
M25	3rd	5	Gun Tight Wk	4-2-5	46 Bear	1	Pass	8	Out	Henning	Inc	-0.28
Broken QB. Six-man rush is picked up and stonewalled (Prot+3), Henning gets open, ball is turfed. Refs-1 miss an obnoxious arm tug on Schoonmaker's sleeve but they've been consistent not calling it away from the play. (INx, 0, Prot 3/3).
Drive Notes: Punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M38	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nickel Over	2	Run	6	Bash TE lead	Corum	9	1.37
Hooray they test the edge! RPS+1 gets that DE charging in as he's flanked by Corum(+1). All(+1) gets an extended block and avoids holding on Fatukasi as Corum speed bursts out of the DE's tackle attempt, almost makes it through the narrow gap between All and the sideline but stepped on the line.
M47	2nd	1	Pistol Ace Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7.5	Zone Read	Corum	6	-0.03
Refs+1 as M has eight guys on the line of scrimmage again. McNamara(-1, read-1) has a SAM coming in from the edge, doesn't want to test him. RU has slanted heavy frontside (RPS+1) and gets washed out just too far for the SAM to help. Hayes(+2) takes a backup DE for a donkey ride in the backfield. All(+0.5) and Keegan(+0.5) got seals on LBs popping backside. Vastardis(+1) got a monster turn on the NT. Corum is through the hole as the SAM brings him down. Now imagine that blocking in a 21st century offense!
O47	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	RPO	7.5	Slant/Belly	Corum	2	-0.44
They run it again as a Belly, this time as an RPO but the SAM stays home. RPO+1, RPS+1, and Schoonmaker(-2) just has to seal the WLB, but gets put on Keegan(+0.5)'s back by the WLB, and Corum can only bounce into the MLB who ropes him down.
O45	2nd	8	Pistol Ace Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7.5	Counter Trey	Corum	0(+15)	1.24
RPS-2 as RU is bringing the safety down as a run defender pre-snap and blitzing into this. Stueber(-1) lost his slanting DE which delays the pullers. Some reprieve as Zinter(+2) ejects Fatukasi back the way he blitzed from, and Honigford(+1) shouldered down a LB. Keegan(+0.5) arms the unblocked DE and ejects a CB, Schoonmaker(+0.5) ignores the DE (is he supposed to?) who grabs Corum's facemask and prevents this from being rescued on a bounce. Normally would minus leaving a guy unblocked but don't mind it because Corum might dust that guy and the S has to be handled. Only half a point because a shoulder would have helped. Facemask is called.
O30	1st	10	Pistol Wk Flex F	4-3-4	Nickel Over	2	Run	6	Zone Read	Corum	3	-0.17
I have to treat it as real since he's looking at him. McNamara(-1, read-1) lets RU do their stunt without testing a DT on the edge. That guy isn't playing the edge because the Jack is still in position. RU is stunting the backside which Hayes(-2) can do nothing about, which is too bad because Keegan(+1) washed out his DT and Zinter(+0.5) and Vastardis(+0.5) had LBs to seal, but Hayes guy and unread guy are converging so no access to the cutback lane.
O27	2nd	7	Pistol Str	4-2-5	Nickel Under	2	Run	6	Zone Read	Corum	0	-0.63
Safety over the TE is suspicious because they've been high over the Slot all game. He comes and is screaming off the edge but McNamara(-1, read-1) ain't keeping. Frontside jammed up by a hard slant, Keegan(-1) gets to be the OL popping through after getting nobody. RPS-3 Rutgers bet New Jersey again. Rutgers burns their last timeout and there's 2:33 remaining so a good play here is ballgame. Let's see what they come up with
O27	3rd	7	Pistol Trips Unbalanced	4-2-5	Nickel Under	1	Run	7	Belly	McNamara	-2	-1.17
I bet reads are called pre-snap. This is supposed the be The Incredibly Surprising Keep Read. The blitzing safety is telegraphed, he forms up to force a give, McNamara(-2, read-1) keeps, and the safety wraps him up in a bow. If you care they had an extra LB (Fatukasi) over here and kept safe in case someone got out. RPS-1.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(47). 20-13. 2 min 4th Q. Defense wins the game, next drive is all kneels, let's tally up the RPS numbers.

I feel like I was enjoying a quiet shoemaker’s life in London and was suddenly transported to Paris in the Reign of Terror.

If you want people to get your Dickens reference you should stick to the only line anyone knows from that book.

It was the best of times, then it was the worst of times.

Yeah I suppose we should just jump into how Schiano went all Madame Defarge on Josh Gattis, who got his seat so thoroughly pummeled that it’s still warm. But first I need to set a baseline here because the offense in the first half was keeping pace with their performance vs. NIU. Here’s that full chart that I teased in the game column:

So there’s the context: For a half the Michigan offense was on the same trajectory they’d been against the MAC opponents. And we were wrong in the podcast about Michigan having no tricks, because they did have a few things prepared. Here’s one I liked because it attacked the way Rutgers prefers to cover the edges in the Stunt 43:

The lighter box created by spreading out the tight ends created a lighter box and easier runs. The result is a solid kick of the SAM and a huge gainer if Hayes doesn’t overshoot his gap. The cocked nose slants into air as Zinter pops him into irrelevance, and the Rutgers-standard edge replacement of a DE for a linebacker just gives Michigan a lighter, more downfield player to run over.

The other tendency it attacked was for Rutgers to start two-high and rotate one down into the box for a Don Brown-ish front. If you spread them out like this however, neither rotation works: if they “Rip” (bottom safety comes down, top one goes high) the SAM is trapped too close to the box to close down a quick screen. If they “Liz” (bottom safety goes high) the SAM is trapped too wide of the box to help the running game. That’s what happens here: the stacks force the rotation to stay away from the play, uses the SAM’s alignment against him, and delivers one more player to the point of attack than the defense has.

The weird thing: Michigan never went back to it.

The other thing they did on those early drives was mess with how Rutgers likes to do different things on the frontside and weakside based on formation. The very first play from scrimmage was an example. Watch what they do with the tight ends to either side:

One goes down, the other comes up. This makes Michigan’s formation unbalanced, meaning the TE is no longer eligible, meaning Rutgers doesn’t have to keep the safety deep over him and the SAM splitting the slot space in case of a pass to that guy. It also messes with the easiest key for Michigan’s running attack: if they have an off-the-line TE (I used “F” for this), we like to bring him across the formation and run to that side. They don’t have time to register that however because Michigan snaps the ball, and Rutgers is still in their slant to (the offense’s) left playcall while Michigan’s running right. DEs are replaced for more pliant linebackers and the run works despite All blocking the same guy Vastardis has handled.

Another weird thing: They didn’t go back to this either.

And then the next drive there was #SpeedinSpace!

Indeed. The first time Michigan deigned to throw anything off their run looks McNamara got oodles of time to choose between all the tight ends running routes, ultimately settling on Honigford, the former offensive tackle, who dropped it. The second time was an RPO slant and the Rutgers LBs were goners.

Michigan’s “play-action” still has less salesmanship than the neighbor’s Girl Scout, but still worked until a free-blitzing safety got to stare right at it.

For most of the day whenever Michigan went to pass they were able to pick up four to six rushers with no problem.

And then.

And then McNamara missed a wide-open Schoonmaker in the end zone and the coaches elected not to try his arm on a slant with five seconds left. Drives after that:

• Three-and-out featuring a fake read, an illegal snap, a way short fade, and a check into a run up the gut on 3rd and 12 that they’ve already shown.
• Three-and-out that ends when they get stuffed on 3rd and 1 and won’t go for it on 4th and 1 at their 43.
• Three-and-out when McNamara misses two guys then won’t attempt a running toss.
• Three-and-out where RU is selling out the edge, McNamara turfs a 3rd and 5.
• 7-play, 33-yard drive that’s one outside run, a facemask penalty, and a lot of fake reads getting RPS’d.
• The kneeldowns.

That’s just 19 plays to chart from the half. Take out some of the stuff that was extremely conservative or boneheaded even on the Harbaugh scale, and things might not be so bad. McNamara won’t play if he’s that off again. They usually do make proper 4th down decisions. And though we’re probably #1 in FBS in downs burned on fake zone reads that fool nobody, I can’t remember them ever making an entire drive out of them before. This staff can be infuriating, but they’re rarely Al Borges, and when they are it’s usually against Rutgers.

But when we went to run we were stuffed.

I think we gave Rutgers too little credit on defense, because when I went through there were more tip of the cap plays than I remembered. This was another covered play. The point is to deliver Corum to the open side, where there are no eligible receivers, and thus once Rutgers has adjusted, no nasty cornerses or safetieses to stop our back if he gets through the front lines. He almost makes it but the nose just absolutely whipped Vastardis.

The cocked NT, second from bottom of the line, vs our center

Good play by him. And there was this one by (sigh) former Michigan enrollee Aaron Lewis.

(#71), the second guy from the top on the line of scrimmage.

Michigan also faced some struggles in short yardage situations. The results of eleven plays against a goal line defense could be split into two categories:

YAY:

• Down G for the opening walk-in TD. (got it)
• Early split zone off the left side like always that beefs Haskins through a CB (got it)
• Dive that meets a slant but Vastardis and Corum find a new gap. (got it)
• Zone read give behind Hayes & Keegan (got it)
• QB sneak from the 1.5 yard line that got 1.4999999999. 50-50 if it got the TD but nobody could tell. (push)

DAMMIT COACHES

• Three split zones off the left side blown up because they’re pinching into it and M doesn’t read the free backside hitter (stuffedx3)
• Purposeful delay of game on 4th and 1 (grrr)
• PA, two wide open tight ends, McNamara misses. (sigh)
• Elect to take a 3rd down FG on the next play with 5 seconds left in the 1st half (grrr)

Once again they turned to Down G lead when things got super serious, and it worked.

I like this better than their other favorite, split zone, because defenses have learned that Michigan’s no-read run game is ripe for pinching, which just compresses the OL until at least one of them is useless and the best hope is to move some guys so much that there’s room to burrow before the unblocked edge guy squirts in. Down G gets an extra lead blocker out of there, and unlike Power or Counter it doesn’t take so long to develop that the defense can rally after its initial punch.

But after the first TD of the game, Michigan didn’t go back to it.

Did they go back to anything?

Yeah, they kept going Unbalanced, covering a TE or WR in order to mess with the defense’s alignments.

Ian Boyd talked about this stuff and why Michigan runs it in detail this morning. I counted them doing this eight times, not including their goal line package where Trente Jones is an ineligible edge.

---------------------------------

QUICK REFRESHER ON COVERED RECEIVERS:

The designations for players affected by different rules, e.g. who’s an eligible receiver, are based on the simple formula of (at least) 7 men have to be on the line of scrimmage, no more than four men can be in the backfield, and the backfield+the ends of the line are eligible receivers.

Nobody sticks to the alignment that football started with, and the names of positions no longer make much sense, but the rules for eligible receivers still dictate offensive alignments, and therefore defensive assignments. One way to get weird is to change those official roles, e.g. by “covering” a tight end.

The downside: the left tackle isn’t an eligible receiver because he’s wearing #76, meaning the defense has one fewer receiver to worry about. If they realize it, they can move material around to account for the fact that the inside WR above can’t even go three yards downfield. He’s just a wide lineman.

---------------------------------

Here’s that play:

It doesn’t get much, but not because of an X’s and O’s thing, but only because Stueber stumbled out of his stance and thus missed his chance to cut off the backside overhang safety who scraped across the entire formation to make this play. Everyone else is accounted for.

Two things really jump out about this play:

1. They were more prepared than I gave them credit for to face the Stunt 43. The reason they went unbalanced was to balance the box so Rutgers wouldn’t get to know until the TE goes in motion which side they’re attacking. Michigan also loaded up the right side of the formation pre-snap to get the strongside run defenders over there, and the usual weakside defenders at the point of attack. The reason they can get away with it in the first place is the backside isn’t crashing. Their whole system relies on getting the 3T and 5T upfield and outside the tackles to hem in the play, and then swinging around a DE/OLB type. OLBs in, DEs out:

Rutgers would prefer to be in an under front with the Jack and SAM’s jobs flipped. They blitz a LB here to try to win that back, but Michigan anticipated it and Keegan treated that guy as a blockdown. Also the Nose’s gap has changed so he can’t use his cocked stance to earhole the center—he goes to the backside A gap where Vastardis has an easier time sealing him.

2. This is graduate-level Power stuff from Michigan’s line. These are blocks being made on the fly based on who shows where, with an educated guess based on the opponent’s tendencies. Keegan has to ID the WLB’s blitz, Hayes and Zinter have to combo the 3-tech and Jack to keep them far enough outside that there’s a lane. All has to get around on the Mike.

So you’re…happy(!?) with the offensive staff?

This game had a lot more evidence that Sherrone Moore knows what he’s doing, to the point where Michigan was overly reliant on executing a lot of tough blocking assignments that were mostly made. The only big missed assignment I found in this game was on Filiaga, and he was promptly replaced with Keegan, who made the heady stop above. It was actually the tight ends I thought who were more likely to blow something. Rutgers is doing their normal stunt here and Schoonmaker is chasing the stunter like he’s never seen this before.

TE #86 bottom of the formation

I was pegging this game as the first real prove-it opportunity for Moore because Rutgers is designed to have guys pop up where they’re not expected and one bad target can screw up an entire blocking scheme. The one thing the OL didn’t seem prepared for was the cocked nose surprising Vastardis and Zinter. That guy was removed for targeting at halftime but negatives continued versus his backup.

The rest of the issues were due to Hayes encountering DEs who refused to get donkeyed like all the DEs who came before, even if that meant laying down. The above is one example. Aaron Lewis was another. I thought that was good coaching on the part of Rutgers, and Michigan didn’t seem to have a plan for dealing with a DE who wouldn’t be moved. They’ll have to do so now.

That’s nice, but I didn’t mean Moore.

I know, and we’ll get to that, but the players on the field had a lot to do with things too. Shouldn’t we start with them?

I guess. You have a chart I assume.

Chart.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	7	8	-1	Big comedown as he encountered guys he couldn’t ragdoll.
Keegan	6	5	+1	Think he's won the job permanently now.
Vastardis	10	12.5	-2.5	Started big, cocked NTs adjusted and went on a run.
Filiaga	0.5	2	-1.5	Got a drive, mistargeted on a pull, got pulled.
Stueber	6.5	3	+3.5	Blue collar, except when he fell down.
Zinter	10.5	10	+0.5	Sometimes you forget he's a true soph, sometimes you don't.
T.Jones	2	0	+2	Better weapon on goal line than past 6th OL
Crippen			DNP
Barnhart			DNP
Atteberry			DNP
All	11	1	+10	Going to earn a star for blocking. Main offensive weapon after RBs.
Honigford	4.5	5	-0.5	Rotates good w bad/weak. Not a receiver. Should be 280 not 250.
Schoonmaker	8	5	+3	Should've had a TD, but still a clumsy route runner.
Seltzer			DNP
Hibner			DNP
TOTAL	66	51.5	+14.5	Not dominant. Not bad either.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McNamara	3	6.5	-3.5	Harbaugh starter=bad reader quietly killing the gun/pistol run game.
McCarthy			DNP
Villari			DNP
Haskins	2	3	-1	That's new.
Corum	6	9	-3	WHAT IS THIS?!?!
Edwards			DNC	Saw him split wide. They didn't go back to it.
Dunlap			DNP
TOTAL	11	18.5	-7.5	Explanation: Nobody challenged an edge until 55 minutes in.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
C.Johnson			DNC	See above about edges.
Sainristil	2		+2	All on his catch and run.
Henning			DNC	DID. NOT. CHART.
Wilson	1	1	0	Speed in space weapon, still not a blocker.
Baldwin			DNC
Anthony			DNP
TOTAL	3	1	+2	Not part of the gameplan.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	24	30	80%	RU was overplaying the run. Vastardis-2, Zinter-2, Keegan-1, Honigford-1
RPS	16	30	-14	Not a record! Was even until M got up two scores.

That RPS number. What does it mean?

Well it wasn’t the worst all time, as I feared it would be. This was also done in just 53 plays, but even if I normalize this for plays where RPS was being charted (and remove this year’s WMU game because I didn’t turn RPS off when it was already a blowout). It did make the top three:

1. 2013 Michigan State: -22.5 (+6/-25 on 57 plays)
2. 2013 Nebraska: -20.1 (+16/-35 on 64 plays)
3. 2021 Rutgers: -17.8 (+16/-30 on 53 plays)
4. 2014 Utah: -14.3 (+6/-20 on 66 plays)
5. 2014 Penn State: -13.5 (+6/-17 on 55 plays)
6. 2020 Michigan State: -12.9 (+7/-24 on 89 plays)
7. 2020 Wisconsin: -12.3 (+5/-13 on 44 plays)
8. 2012 Nebraska: -11.9 (+14/-26 on 68 plays)
9. 2013 Penn State (“27 for 27”): -11.4 (+18/-33 on 89 plays)
10. 2014 Michigan State: -11.3 (+7/-15 on 48 plays)

I’ll also point out that the score was running even for much of the first half. Things got out of control when Rutgers began pinching the edges and adding a safety to the box every play, and Michigan did not do anything to punish that.

Like attack the edges?

Right. We were technically wrong but philosophically correct that they didn’t try the edge until 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter; Michigan ran the same Bash play at the end of the first quarter but Corum blew it by trying to cut through the unblocked DE he’s supposed to be edging by design.

When they ran it later they didn’t bother going unbalanced (or waiting for Rutgers to get sorted out) and just hit the edge.

This was a new issue for Michigan backs. Typically RBs want to bounce everything and we’re appreciative of those with the discipline to get vertical when they can since they’re not going against high schoolers on the edge anymore. But when you’re Blake Corum, they kind of are high schoolers, and you need to try some edge.

Still:

• Zero orbit motions or bubble threats to occupy a SAM or safety.
• Zero end-arounds/reverses or the like.
• Zero jets.
• Zero screens.
• Zero offensive touches for A.J. Henning.
• One spread alignment that worked, then they went away from it.
• Zero QB keeps on zone reads until they kept on a bad read.

What I did count were (as called) 16 inside power runs (including one RPO), 11 inside and split zone runs, 9 short pass combos (including the other RPO), 4 midrange pass combos, 2 play-action passes, 2 bash runs, 1 QB sneak, and one very bad screen version of split flow. If you’re going to generously count that as an edge attack, that’s 3/53 plays that threatened to punish Rutgers for playing unsound to stop interior runs. In a gif:

Just because I watch film doesn’t mean the secrets of the offense are all revealed. There were also many perfunctory looks outside to check that Rutgers was indeed playing sound and it’s possible that the edge checks were out there. For all I know Haskins is making a read here and has the option to tell McNamara to hold onto it and throw it to Sainristil (the WR at top). If the safety’s charging down so hard that there’s no way for the receiver to crack him, that would be open.

But you could also just make him not do that by running a play-action at him when they’re already 8 in the box and regularly bringing down the safety as a ninth.

Well?

I dunno, man. It’s not just “Speed in Space” we’re talking about, but the simple things you have to do if you’re going to run inside. And it’s not like it’s the first time we’ve had this happen. It’s not even the first time it’s happened against Rutgers.

This was a return to Michigan's early-season approach where the quarterback wasn't a run threat, and things suffered a bit because of it. Rutgers knew from the drop that Patterson wasn't going to run against them and used that to stuff up various plays. Michigan occasionally helped by covering the slot … This was a theme. Rutgers wasn't very good at stopping Michigan at the line of scrimmage but was able to apply unblocked guys to the ballcarrier in the 3-6 yard range frequently.

That was from 2018, and the program’s answer to “Why are you running caveman offense that makes everyone feel bad and makes Michigan look bad?” was to hire a guy with a zip bang hashtag. It’s also the umpteenth starting quarterback who’s so bad at zone reads I swear they’re happening before the snap, if at all. What are we looking at as this safety comes in at plaid?

What are we looking at when the SAM is doing the same?

Where’s the double move when they’re leaving their safeties up and alone with no help and expecting RPO or short or nothing at all?

You’ll do that to WMU or NIU but not a conference opponent? What is going on here?

I want to credit Rutgers as much as I can to avoid the obvious thing about Michigan, but there was nothing remotely clever about the vast majority of the unsound things Schiano was doing to stop us—they’re just the things his defense does every game. Bringing extra defenders to overwhelm the point of attack of a power running game isn’t rocket science; it’s just a gamble that the offense won’t play-action and throw it over your heads. When Michigan did try play-action (twice) it went over their heads.

The one part of the game where I have some sympathy for the coaches was turtling the final drive when it was clear McNamara was broken, except why aren’t you using the other quarterback then? And why, when the game is on the line at the end, are you putting everything on, of all things, ZONE READS. Seriously. This was Michigan’s play-calling on their final drive inside 4 minutes.

• Zone Read (the one with the SAM above) for 6 yards
• Belly (basically the same play) with a backside RPO for 2 yards
• Counter Trey that RU is blitzing into that might get 3 yards but RU commits a facemask that turns it into zero.
• Zone Read for 3 yards that doesn’t actually read the edge.
• Same play again for zero yards.
• Belly keeper except the safety knows it’s coming, forms up, and gets to laugh as he TFLs with a LB buddy behind ready to get this if he can’t stop laughing:

If McNamara can’t throw, and he can’t read, and Rutgers is bending their entire defense around these two facts, what is McNamara doing in the game? If he can do these things, why don’t we let him? And who’s making that call?

The fake zone reads cannot possible be a Gattis thing because Michigan lost the Notre Dame game in 2018 by doing it. They learned their lesson, then they unlearned it against Army in 2019, learned it again, and this week, with a home loss to Rutgers hanging on the balance, our best offensive idea was “Let’s go back to what we were doing against Army.”

If I had to pick an explanation that stands above the others it's "didn't take Rutgers seriously." We have seen this script before. We saw it in the 2017 Rutgers game when they let Brandon Peters have a few throws then practiced back-cuts on power runs for three quarters. We saw it in the 2018 Rutgers game where Michigan ran into stacked boxes and let in free hitters with fake reads until they finally got the lead they were always going to get; then the backups kicked ass because they’re allowed to run things Bo never did. We saw it last year until Rutgers was spotted a big lead and Milton was off, and McNamara--the backup--got to come in and run a real college offense.

It was mildly annoying before; now it’s threatening to lose them football games.

Fake zone reads are not THE problem but they're the most obvious and frustrating part of the Jim Harbaugh Rutgers Game Plan experience. I don’t know if they’re expecting the QB to read it pre-snap, if McNamara is just screwing them up consistently, if the slider is just set to an extreme and defenses have learned how to maximize that, or if they figured 20 points against Rutgers was plenty so why do anything more dangerous than fart for a half and leave your opponents with a bunch of nonsense to scout. None of those are good reasons, except I guess they were correct if it’s the latter. It’s 2021, you have unlimited funds, practically unlimited staff, you don’t go under center, and you have two hundred alumni now entering their 30s who played for the guy who invented it: Learn to run a fucking read option.

So can I ask the question now?

Yes.

Is this Harbaugh or Gattis?

That’s one of those questions I can’t answer and the program will not, so we’re still guessing. Some dumb things I believe are Gattis. Like this awful take on Split Flow.

Split Flow is a play-action pass off of split zone, which Michigan runs a lot. But it’s a PASS. You run it with a simple levels read and a trail. John Gruden called it Spider 2 Y-Banana and now it’s a t-shirt. We ran it to get two TEs open in the endzone on Saturday.

The above however is NOT THAT. It’s a screen, with a tackle trying to run out for a kickout he has no hope of getting to, and zero receivers even looking for the ball as the trundle into space and more space in a soft Cover 2, and the tight end walks into a Cover 2 cornerback. It’s supposed to be a man beater, sure, but Rutgers is mostly a Pattern Match team and reads the #2 receiver. Also it’s been scouted to death ever since Gattis brought it over from John Donovan’s Penn State teams. Yes: Donovan. PSU stopped running it when Donovan left, and Washington began running it last year. It also wastes the play-action you were going to do on split zone, the staple play that’s getting a ton of defensive attention.

Michigan checked into that play after seeing something in the Rutgers defense (probably man), that Rutgers probably checked out of, which makes it all the more galling. That’s one Donovan thing I can connect to our offense with Gattis.

I’d believe Gattis called the Sainristil fade because he seems to like Sainristil. I believe Gattis is the reason we don’t go under center except at the goal line sometimes. I think he’s calling the plays though Harbaugh’s definitely on the headset and talking, and sometimes in the moment I feel sure that Gattis just got overruled. The other play Michigan prepared as an audible was that Corum run on 3rd and 8 in the first drive when they saw two linebackers were the only guys in charge of the interior gaps.

That worked in that it delivered Corum to five yards and he could bounce off or drag tacklers for the rest. But the second time they checked into it Rutgers was ready:

Is that Josh Gattis trying to invent a reason to run a split zone on 3rd and 12, or Jim Harbaugh? I don’t know, and they won’t tell us. I can guess.

Michigan also went super heavy again in this game. They had Trente Jones on the field about as often as AJ Henning. Joel Honigford is involved in a third of their plays while Cornelius Johnson is barely on screen and Roman Wilson had as many blocking appearances (1) as passing targets. They run out goal line offenses on 1st and 10 and seem surprised that they get a goal line response.

Watch the safety on the top:

Are we going to keep pretending that after three years of sharing office space that #SpeedinSpace Josh Gattis has imbibed the Tao of the Tight End from Him Jarbaugh? That the receivers coach is designing an offensive attack that minimizes how much effect the receivers can have on the game?

In the gray area are the gameplans. Who wanted to go with covered formations? Who decided to shelve three things that were working in the first half to really force the thing that wasn’t working to work? Who decided that Michigan shouldn’t try the edge of a defense that wants to cover multiple gaps with their inside linebackers and leave their safeties in man coverage? Your guess is as good as mine, but we all have an idea.

Whose idea is it to not pass?

The only thing that makes sense to me is the passing game hasn’t looked great in practice—from any of the quarterbacks—and that losing Ronnie Bell turned a distrust of air into a mania. If a typical practice looks like the QB chart I get it.

CADE MCNAMARA

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
Western Mich	3+	3(3)-						2			1		67%	+5		4/5	2/7
Washington	1	3(2)-			2	(1)			3	1(1)	2		40%	-8		5/5	4/9
NIU	2	7+ -			1	1							100%	+11		1/2	1/2
Rutgers	3+	5-			1	1				5xx	1		57%	+2.5		2/2	1/6

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
Western Mich	1+++	2				3		1x		1			60%	-2		0/0
NIU		4+							1		1		67%	+4		2/2	3/3

As you’ve no doubt told 30 people by now, this was trending towards the NIU grade before McNamara took a targeting shot. It was very much in line with the kind of player we’ve been talking about since last year’s Rutgers game. McNamara is most comfortable reading before the snap. After it he locks onto the read he thought he would get, and then comes down if it’s not there. This time he wanted Erick All on the fade.

You can watch Schoonmaker on the backside just burling through the other safety and the free safety drifting to take All away, trusting McNamara won’t go back there. He doesn’t throw to All, doesn’t look backside at all, and then is late getting down to Honigford, giving the CB a chance to challenge and ultimately break it up.

This time he wanted Sainristil on the slant. Watch the eyes.

Watch the eyes:

That’s a quick glance to see if the SAM is staying out near the trips formation, and then he’s on his Read#1. He’s very good at making those pre-snap reads, so the first guy is usually good. When he’s not, it’s check-down time.

I’m not a psychologist, and the one I’m married to says there’s no way to tell what happened mentally in the second half by watching a 720 pixel film of a guy in a helmet. Here are the grades of his throws broken up by before and after the targeting:

• Before: BR, CA, DO, CA, CA, MA, DO, CA, DO+
• After: INx, IN, CA-, IN, IN, PR, INx

On the PR he wouldn’t risk an on-the-run throw to an open Corum, trying to get 7 yards with his legs instead. Michigan was able to make the passing a fun sideshow against WMU and NIU because they were in control of those games. But Rutgers was slamming their safeties and linebackers against the run in ways no opponent has tried yet. That behavior was punished on the second drive with an RPO to Wilson that hit huge.

It seems like Michigan meant for him to be a bigger part of the gameplan. Against Washington and WMU Michigan only threw when they had to; in this game he had a majority of his throwing opportunities on standard downs, including six times on 1st and 10. It was the three and out drive early in the 4th quarter that did it. That was the drive when he threw to Sainristil’s shoetops, then overthrew All, then tried to scramble on 3rd down. After that there was a strong sense of “Welp, so we tried THAT.”

There’s going to be a debate all week about what it means. That’s not a question the film can answer; I can only confirm what you saw with your eyes was real. Devin Gardner has played quarterback at Michigan, so I 100% defer to him on any questions on the mental aspects of that.

Are our receivers real?

Theoretically. It took four games to get to a season chart that’s starting to look like a usual game chart.

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson				2/2		1	0/2	3/3	5/5
Baldwin			1/1				0/1	3/3	2/2
Sainristil		0/2		1/1			0/3		3/3
Henning	2					2		1/2	1/1
Wilson				1/1			0/1	1/1	2/2
Dixon						1	0/1		1/1
Anthony
x Bell x							1/2	1/1
All		0/1		1/1		1	0/2	2/2	3/3
Schoonmaker	1					2	0/1
Honigford			0/1			2		0/1
Seltzer								0/1
Hibner
Corum			1/1	1/1				1/1	7/8
Haskins									1/1
Edwards						1			1/1

Routes: Schoonmaker +1/-2, Corum+1, Johnson+1, All+1

That’s 65 total charted passes in four games, people counting. There’s nothing to learn here.

I am composing a tweet to register my displeasure that we didn’t score enough on Rutgers. Any advice?

Don’t. However much you’re willing to mentally warm their seats for an almost loss to Rutgers, warm it exactly that much, but it’s as irrelevant as the people who unironically (you’re excused, Ben Mathis-Lilley) write articles about hot seats. There are so many bigger games left on the schedule to judge them on that this one will can only be a wakeup call or a harbinger. There will be plenty of time after that to point at signs, assign blame, prop up reputations, and believe the next move fixes everything.

For now, Michigan has a pistol version of the Stanford beef spread, and a solid running game that just spent another 40 snaps learning to deal with a bad situation under live fire. Wisconsin is going to take away the pass and put even better roadblocks in their path, so anything they learned there could be useful. If McNamara is the guy he was in the first half that's plenty to punish defenses who try what Rutgers was doing. If the coaches have another game where the RPS score creeps into the Worst of Al Borges pantheon, this conversation can transition rapidly to another one. We're quite practiced at it, in fact. There is prodigious strength in sorrow and despair.

Heroes?

McNamara before the targeting. Erick All is a good blocker, full stop. Every WR being patient right now. If I had a blog that reaches hundreds of thousands of people I would use it to pressure Mr. Spots into giving you free wings any week you didn’t get a catchable target.

Maybe not so heroic?

McNamara after the targeting. Hayes, Vastardis, and Zinter had a tougher time than usual dislodging the Rutgers DL. Corum got a bunch of negatives for not being Corum enough. The marketing manager in charge of product placement for Diet Coke.

...for having it it RIGHT THERE while Schiano was taking the OC to school.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and beyond?

Rutgers might be good (on defense). They made things hard. Schiano had them one step ahead on Michigan’s adjustments.

Tuli and Taki were overrated. The Rutgers DL were way more effective than any Michigan’s faced this year, down through the backups. Hayes had an Indiana Jones vs the Shirtless Mechanic moment when he tried to punch these guys.

Vastardis might not stick as a pro. The quickness of the smaller Rutgers NT is something you see in Aaron Donald-ian freaks all the time in the pros. The walk-on part of Vastardis’s game wasn’t up to the challenge. He’s still a very good college center.

The running backs can make mistakes. More evidence that the early offense was being generated by these two doing things. Blake you have our permission to bounce.

The passing game probably isn’t doing it in practice either. One drive with three bad passes was enough to retreat to the turtle shell. Heavy run game might be holding up some protection issues.

Non-broken McNamara is mostly a first read guy. Defenses are already scheming to take away his first read, but he’s pretty good at seeing through their tricks, and that could be functional in an offense trying to attack unsound defenses.

Rutgers did have to get unsound to do this. It’s one thing if you’re running inside all day into stacked boxes and mad that you’re not running the counters to that. It’s quite another if you’re running into regular boxes and not moving the ball. The former is fixable, or at least should be.

Zone reads are broken. I believe Michigan will continue to hamstring itself by running zone reads that don’t zone read. In 2021 every defense knows how to defend them so you do you have to have some running ability unless you’re getting as predictable with them as Michigan. Better not to run them than to burn one in every ten downs on fire trying to.

It’s probably not the #6 offense in the country. If you were as high on the offense as the fancystats, dial that back down to 2019-ish expectations. If you were already there, please control your otters.

this mean we’re winning a championship right @mgoblog @Misopogon

https://t.co/Ba55UL3fqm

— raj (@internetraj) September 28, 2021

Vengeance and retribution require a long time; it is the rule.