Signing Day: The LOIs Are In, Mostly
Note that we'll have our signing day podcast starting at 5, although without yours truly because the only thing I'm good for right now, audio-wise, is rapid-fire coughing. Traditional Signing Day-ish TWO should run tomorrow.
Let's get it out of the way
This isn't the Catch Ohio State class, if such a thing exists. A version of the 2021 class that's spearheaded by 5* QB JJ McCarthy in which he plays pied piper to various other high-end prospects would be more along those lines. The Columbus Death Star will have a top 5 class anyway, and things will likely proceed as they have. Ah well.
Moving on from the omnipresent "but" of Michigan football…
Housekeeping notes
Folks Michigan is waiting on:
- 4* CB CB Darion Green-Warren, who will announce at his all-star game. Bunch of Michigan crystal balls came in for him but there is USC talk, because who wouldn't want to sign up for the #76 class in the country?
- 3* NY QB Dan Villari, who appears to be Michigan's CJ Stroud fallback. He's announcing later today.
- 3* VA OL James Pogorelc. Pogorelc's crystal ball is 100% Stanford but maybe the Cardinal having 12 guys in the portal after a 4-8 season, including four starters, could push him away from what's hopefully David Shaw cratering. He intends to sign late.
More names may pop up in the late period but if the last couple years are any indication that'll be a whole bunch of nothing. UT DE Van Fillinger is probably ticketed for Utah--not sure Michigan really needs a WDE type in this class anyway.
LOIs still un-faxed:
- 3* OL Micah Mazzccua. We've heard that Mazzccua won't be signing anywhere today.
- 3* TE Nick Patterson. Decommit rumors have swirled around Patterson for months and he did take fall visits to GT and Memphis.
- 3* RB Gaige Garcia. Garcia's school has a ceremony scheduled for 6 PM.
Mazzccua probably won't be in the class, especially given how Michigan was searching around for another OL for the past month or two. Patterson remains a mystery.
[After THE JUMP: I give this class 3.5 stars.]
The 3.5 star class
Makari Paige is just above our 3.5 star cutoff [David Nasternak]
Around these parts we frequently refer to players as "3.5 star" prospects despite no recruiting site offering rankings of that variety. We've done that because there are qualitative differences between recruits with a recruiting site or two going to bat for them and a fair selection of high end (but not elite) offers and guys towards the tail end of the top 1000, or even deeper down.
Grade inflation has made a three-star designation a catch-all for damn near everyone with a D-1 offer. There are 130 D-1 schools; the composite lists 103 QBs as three stars. Their own rankings are barely better, with 91 QBs getting three stars or better. Three stars meant little and now means nothing.
Thus 3.5 stars, which we've generally applied to guys from the 250-500 range. And that is this class, to a remarkable extent. If we set aside Mazzccua and Garcia (who has a different cost/benefit equation since he doesn't count against football unless he plays) and the only guy significantly outside the top 500 is Patterson. MA WR Eamonn Dennis and MD DT Kris Jenkins are 508 and 510. Villari will also be in from the wilderness; the guy he is replacing, JD Johnson, is 458th.
So except for one tight end and one QB flier imposed on Michigan by JD Johnson's heart condition there are zero flier recruits in this class.
The unfortunate half of the 3.5 star class: Michigan has one top-100 recruit, IL WR AJ Henning, and he checks in at #92. Only six guys are more than a dozen or so slots from 3.5 star status. There are no slam-dunk guys, and Michigan really could have used some slam-dunk guys at spots like CB and DT.
This all adds up to the #11 class in the country and the #2 class in the Big Ten, as Michigan is currently pipping Penn State by 0.16 points. It's good, it's fine, as the roster meat between the 2019 Dax Hill/Chris Hinton/Zach Charbonnet class and the JJ McCarthy/Please Recruit Some Five Stars 2021 class it should give Michigan a very high floor. But it's not a high ceiling class, and… I mean… Michigan needs some ceiling right now.
Roster trends
Henning is one of a few fast guys [Nasternak]
The most obvious one: Speed in Space™. Between Henning (4.46 40, 4.08 shuttle Opening Regional), Dennis (4.52 40, 40 vert), and Wilson (4.37 40, 3.96 shuttle, 39 vert) Michigan has a strong claim to the fastest WR recruiting class in the country. The other teams in the running generally have higher-ranked WRs because their guys are able to put up similar numbers while also being 6'2" or taller. Michigan's guys are 5'10", 5'11", and 6'0". The priority: speed.
You can throw MD RB Blake Corum in this bucket too. He's 5'8" and runs a 4.4 40, pretty much the polar opposite of the Haskins/Charbonnet thunder and thunder combination Michigan went with this year. The skill position recruits this year are exactly what Oregon would do.
On defense: Hybrid Space Everything. NJ S Jordan Morant, NJ S RJ Moten, MI S Makari Page, MA LB Kalel Mullings, and NY LB William Mohan are all at least plausible vipers. Mohan is the cleanest fit and the only guy likely to be placed into the Barrett/Velazquez/Solomon + freshman melee to replace Khaleke Hudson. The others will be flung across the back seven as Michigan seeks to maintain the flexibility they had this year, when Hudson could be dropped to free safety without trouble and Josh Metellus or Brad Hawkins could pop up into the box with little dropoff.
Defensive tackle scramble
Michigan took zero guys listed at defensive tackle immediately after a football season in which their defensive tackles got obliterated in their two worst losses of the year. DT should be spot like QB where not taking one guy for each starting spot is not an option.
Michigan was unfortunate that the biggest DT prospect in the Midwest was Justin Rogers, who signed with Kentucky. As a general rule highly-rated prospects who sign with Kentucky cannot sign with Michigan even if they want to. This extended into an incredible DT dearth across the Big Ten footprint. Rogers was one of only three only four-star DTs in the Midwest and even if you expand the boundaries of the footprint to include NJ/MD/DC and the entirety of New England you only pick up three more prospects.
One, Brian Bresee, was one of the top guys in the country and ticketed for Clemson from the start. A second, Tre Williams, also went to Clemson. The third, though: Dominic Bailey of St. Frances Academy, who signed with Tennessee. Michigan didn't even kick the tires. Nor did they poke around Tonka Hemingway, the younger brother of Junior Hemingway.
Instead Michigan appears set to embark on multi-year beefening projects with Kris Jenkins and Aaron Lewis. Jenkins is actually a pretty good bet for a guy who's still listed at 239 on his 24/7 profile. His dad, also named Kris, was a four-time Pro Bowl DT, and at 6'4" leverage shouldn't be a big issue. Lewis is more of a question.
Corner issues
Seldon is a wee bit wee [Nasternak]
Michigan does have a highly ranked CB in in-state prospect Andre Seldon, but at 5'8" he seems to have a hard cap. There are no other corners in the class, and that's a nervous situation when the 2017 class seems to be petering out into Vincent Gray and nope. Adding Green-Warren would help a lot, but you have to wonder why Michigan's had a such a struggle to get touted corners in after this Jourdan Lewis/David Long/Lavert Hill/Ambry Thomas run.
CB is the spot at which recruiting rankings seem to live up to their billing most often. Falling back to the pack here will have consequences.
State of the state
Michigan picked up the #2, 5, 6, and 13 prospects in Michigan. Guys they didn't get:
- #1 Justin Rogers, DT. As mentioned, I assume that any legit top-100 prospect who signs with Kentucky is not an option for Michigan.
- #3 Enzo Jennings, S. Jennings signed with Penn State. Michigan offered in April but there never seemed to be any mutual interest. Michigan ended up with about 4 Enzos in this class.
- #4 Maliq Carr, WR. Signed with Purdue. Michigan had an on-again, off-again recruitment with Carr. The "on" part was about three weeks long, but I liked those three weeks. Michigan apparently wanted him as a TE and he wanted to play WR. A jump ball guy would have been nice to add to the fast mighty-mites.
- #7 Cameron Martinez, ATH. Committed to but did not sign with OSU. Michigan has various Martinez-alikes on the roster and in this class.
- #8 Rashawn Williams, WR. Set to be Indiana's next ponderous but effective jump-ball guy; seemed like most big schools backed off midway through his recruitment and Indiana swooped in.
They didn't pursue #9 or #10. Michigan did offer #15 Grant Toutant (OSU) and #18 Bryce Mostella (PSU) and maybe #14 Dallas Fincher (MSU).
Notably, Fincher was MSU's top recruit in-state; more alarmingly for AXE enthusiasts with no sense of decency they only got two other guys, #20 Ian Stewart, a WR, and #23 Tommy Guarjardo, a TE. MSU damn near got shut out in-state.
Tim Drevno, star recruiter
We've given Tim Drevno a ton of crap here over the years, but let's recognize his heroic effort to get a four-star recruit to the University of South Dakota-Codington. It can't be easy to get a guy from California to relocate to a county whose largest city is 20k Watertown
[is handed note]
*THAT* USC?
[whispering]
Well even if we are talking about the University of Southern California, he still brought in their only four-star recruit…
…and five other OL. USC could field a football team with what Tim Drevno's bringing in. The rest of the coaches not so much. The other five guys in USC's 11-man class(!!!) are 3 DTs, a kicker, and a wide receiver.
I was going to say this is the nation's #76 class, but Bowling Green must have picked someone up because Scot Loeffler's Lloyd Carr tribute band just moved in front of USC. That USC.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
There is no feasible way that Michigan will consistently out-recruit OSU without OSU suffering a number of self-inflicted wounds. It just ain't happening, and neg away and whatever else seems to be the flavor of the month here. And to put even THAT level of dominance in perspective, Clemson has the same number of 5* kids as OSU, LSU, and UGa combined. So there exists a world where Ohio State can legitimately point at another school and say "yeah, we aren't recruiting like them and this class isn't going to close that gap". Also, OSU could arguably talk about shadiness, which I believe would cause my entire face to roll into the back of my skull if I was forced to be in the room.
That said, this class has a chance to be a solid one that may give some positional flexibility down the line. I'm not sold that any of the ends could turn into defensive tackles but there are at least a couple bodies there, and if they get DGW that helps provide depth at CB for one lacking in top-end talent. But otherwise I like the offensive linemen, the skill players fit what Gattis wants, and they have multiple guys who could become boring safeties in the future, which is great.
So yeah, I'm not going to run around beating the drum or anything, but the much-maligned 2018 class counts a number of starters and major contributors, a couple of star-ish guys, and is way less balanced than this one. So count me semi-content and hopeful that Michigan also gets lucky with a couple of later-committing guys.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
I disagree that “there is no feasible way that Michigan will consistently out-recruit OSU without OSU suffering a number of self-inflicted wounds”
The feasible way to do so on the horizon: the ability to legally compensate players in some form or fashion. Don’t roll your eyes, but yes OSU, Clemson etc are compensating these players and taking some flyers in those with character issues. And we don’t really. This has been well documented and often not up for debate.
Within the major college sporting world, there’s no one with deeper pockets than Stanford, Michigan and ND. Loosening up the ability to give just compensation will only help us close that gap. We’ll see how this plays out, but we could conceivably (and legally) outspend OSU.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
Michigan won't do that.
Next.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
What?!
so if law was passed that colleges could legally pay players their just due, Michigan would somehow refrain from doing so?! Under what rationale would they do that?!
December 18th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
hookers and blow....
December 18th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
I think that will level the playing field somewhat but it's not like OSU doesn't have money to pay players legally, nor is Michigan completely above-board when it comes to skirting the rules. I've always felt that the biggest winners from NIL rights will be those kids at mid-size P5/top G5 programs who can receive some type of regional fame and prominence. So maybe a really good RB from IU can lend his name to a local establishment.
I guess the schools that should be worried are your Clemson/Alabama types who don't have a ton of prominent alumni nor significant local economies to pull from. I looked it up some time ago but Clemson and Alabama have endowments of $1B or lower; Michigan has something like $12B and even OSU has like $6B. Obviously that money isn't directly accessible but it is a proxy for affluent alumni and community access, and that is an advantage Michigan should be able to exploit with NIL. But Michigan isn't suddenly going to be able to attract every top recruit because a lot of programs, even those with relatively middling resources, can still take advantage of these same opportunities.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:51 PM ^
Not sure how much university endowments would tell you about how much money kids could make at a place like Alabama. I'm not sure how much overlap the Venn Diagram would have containing people who would pay Denard to advertise used cars or burritos vs those who choose to donate to the University.
I know I paid my University once, I can't imagine any circumstances in which I'd want to give them more money than I already had to. If I had a business I might pay some kid who's famous for a hot minute to endorse my product.
December 18th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^
Rich alumni are a proxy to financial opportunities in the sense that they may be able to grease the wheels for some NIL usage in ways you might not imagine. If, say, an UM alum is a leader of a major VC fund and (s)he has some influence over a hot start-up (s)he invested in early on, that could lead to a player being able to license his likeness for promotion in major markets. You know, Zach Charbonnet-for-Casper-matresses-type of thing. That's an opportunity that may not be available for Alabama, which could obviously still push for their kids to have access but might not have a voice on the inside.
I agree it's not perfect and is just a proxy at best, but Stephen Ross certainly hasn't been shy about throwing around his money with the school, and it's reasonable to assume he'd be open to spreading that around via his many holdings to sponsor athletes.
December 20th, 2019 at 10:50 AM ^
alabama's endowment may be low but take it from me, I lived in tuscaloosa for 4 years during the shula era and went back for homecoming at my small hbcu recently and the tuscaloosa that is their now is night and day, from 01-05, add to the fact that more and more kids went to alabama because of the run they had, and also knowing how important football is in alabama in particular tuscaloosa dont let that 1 bill fool you, they have the means, and more importantly the want to, to continue their dominance well into this new era. where I think we and other lower tier schools come into play, maybe we get that 13-25 guy that they may normally be wrapped up, because now he does not have to rot on a bench for 2-3 years and can start generating money
December 18th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
Regarding NIL, it's not about the universities themselves. Do you think if NIL $ starts flooding into the NCAA, that Oregon and Oklahoma State won't tap the Phil Knight and T. Boone Pickens money cannon? And get ready for every Ohio State player to start appearing in Victoria Secrets ads. That's right, OSU has a pipeline to Wexner and L Brands. NIL ain't the cure-all some are making it out to be.
December 18th, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^
I don't think you understand who typically appears in Victoria's Secrets ads- it isn't football players
December 18th, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^
And we can throw Larry Page, Stephen Ross, Tom Monohan, Bill Davidson type of money. Just to name a few.
For the size that OSU is, their endowment and alumni network is fairly weak, and almost non-existent out of the Midwest.
December 18th, 2019 at 5:33 PM ^
That's all true, but Michigan has prominent alumni as well in major commercial brands.
Here's a use case that seems likely to happen. Jim Hackett is the current CEO of Ford Motor Company. Last time I checked he still likes UM. So the next time Ford wants to do some national commercial about how tough their trucks are, he could use Michigan players driving to practice in Ford trucks, Ford trucks emblazoned with UM colors dropping off the UM gear, etc. Obviously not as tacky as I made it out to be, but that's an opportunity that would let kids make some money at UM AND help promote the school. Yes, part of me cringes at the crass commercialization of college sports, but then I remember Jim Delaney and Mark Emmert are collecting millions of dollars a year and are idiots, so we've passed through the rubicon a long time ago. Best to accept the current reality and take advantage of what you've got.
December 18th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
Texas.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
I agree with this, and to add to the CB situation, if there's one coach on Michigan's staff who has shown excellence in development it's Zordich. Him turning Brandon Watson into a serviceable CB (OSU game aside) was a minor miracle. If we're able to land DGW I have no doubts that we'll be fine at corner for a while.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
perfectly stated.
December 18th, 2019 at 5:12 PM ^
There is no feasible way that Michigan will consistently out-recruit OSU without OSU suffering a number of self-inflicted wounds.
They had one in 2010 with tatgate, and almost had one with Urban in 2018. It's just a shame that Ohio State's version of "self-reporting" is to allow a sleazy coach to be honorably discharged rather than fired.
December 19th, 2019 at 7:41 AM ^
I'm interested in the Stanford transfer portal. They have 12 starters in the portal. In particular, OG Devery Hamilton is someone we recruited under the Drevno regime. Could we bring him back for some extra OL beef?
December 19th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
The Clemson class was by far their best under Dabo. They've recruited on par with Michigan in terms of rankings over the last few years and well below the OSUs and Bama's. The rosters of OSU, Bama, UGA, will still have more 4 and 5 stars than Clemson even after this class.
So no, they aren't saying that about Clemson. Just like OSU didn't say that last year when Michigan had a higher rated class.
I go back to this every recruiting discussion. Michigan doesn't need to recruit the best classes to win the B1G ten every couple years. Wisconsin regularly beats Michigan with vastly inferior recruiting classes. They do this through player development and sound coaching (and smart recruiting).
I agree with you that this class is good enough, considering the lack of DTs was probably somewhat out of their control. Sandwich it between a couple of classes with a few more elite guys and they'll have plenty of talent going forward.
I think (hope?) for the first time in the Harbaugh era we have offensive coaching that can get the most out of the talent and breakthrough every few years.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
Now's the time to schedule USC.
December 18th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
For a game in 2028 because that's how college football scheduling works.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
Development and retention are key for this class.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
A very solid meat and potatoes class. I really like the WR's and Safety type guys in the class. I'm still worried about DT and CB. It is kind of nice signing day has been boring now that it is early.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
Year 5 has one player ranked in the top 100 players. One
December 18th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
It's because the "new car smell" has finally faded and the only thing that's left is a 5 year old Chevy Impala...a "loaded" Impala, but an Impala none the less.
And when you take a loaded Impala to the track and consistently get boat raced by everyone with "real" cars, you tend not to generate a ton of big-time interest.
December 20th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
uga been boat raced for a while and they are snatching up recruits like the wicked witch snatched toto so.... its more than that, doesnt help but still
December 18th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
OU and PSU (the teams right above and below Michigan in the rankings) have 2 in the top-100. Michigan needs to recruit well but I also think people tend to overreact to somewhat-arbitrary cut-offs.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
Both schools have beaten osu recently. Michigan has not. Is it players or coaching?
December 18th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
Michigan has beaten OSU three times in 20 years. Four different coaching staffs with different styles.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
It's a million factors that I'm not going to get into now, but I'd like to point out that PSU has beaten OSU exactly one time since Michigan (and PSU) did in 2011. And that game featured OSU out-gaining PSU by over 150 yards, being awful on 3rd and 4th-down (2-14), losing the turnover battle, and PSU winning because they returned a blocked FG for a TD. So I don't know, maybe Michigan should hope OSU screwed up more often when they played UM.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^
I wish all the Franklin defenders were honest about this point. If Penn State does not catch every break in that game they have zero wins against OSU under his regime. Penn State has one charmed season reminiscent of 2011 under Hoke and as a result a few posters are looking to make Franklin some kind of genius.
The fact is that OSU has owned every other team in conference for quite some time. I like to think that eventually OSU will catch a bad break on the coaching/qb carousel and will return to earth. Unfortunately, I feel like college football is looking more and more like the top soccer leagues, in which only a few teams have a realistic shot at winnning. The vast majority of the best players are increasingly filling the rosters of a few teams. OSU is Man City or Barecelona and Michigan is stuck in the Tottenham/Valencia tier where they can be competitive but never win anything of consequence.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
The Euro Soccer Analogy is fantastic and mirrors my thoughts as well. Without some sort of outside intervention the resources(playoff slots and corresponding ability to bring in top players) will remain concentrated in a few teams and that's a tough not to crack from the outside. Being a Tottenham/Valencia isn't a bad place to be, but it can be frustrating.
December 19th, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
I made that point below about them being lucky in that game, but they've also been far more competitive than Michigan in the last three meetings (lost two of them by one) and arguably were pretty unlucky to lose last year to OSU when they had a double digit lead in the 4th.
The Franklin-Hoke comparison is way too far the other way. The idea he's had just one good season is absurd.
Franklins's maintained an average about about 10 wins a season since that "charmed" season. He won 10 games this year with a young squad that overachieved. He's recruiting well. He's hiring good enough coaches such that they're having success and getting hired for better jobs unlike literally all of Harbaugh's offensive assistants who are basically unemployed or in lower level jobs now.
He has an almost identical overall and big ten record as Harbaugh in the last five years, not just a season, plus he has a win over OSU and a B1G title.
Seems like all the Franklin bashers should look objectively at the results and the process (recruit well and delegate to capable coordinators).
December 18th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^
double post
December 19th, 2019 at 6:07 PM ^
PSU won on the luckiest sequence of events this side of that one game we will not speak of.
So it's not players or coaching, it's simply luck (and lack thereof on our end) that PSU has beaten them and we haven't.
And for OU it's been 100% superior coaching but at least Harbaugh is taking measures to fix that and he probably (hopefully?) has.
December 18th, 2019 at 7:04 PM ^
When are they gonna extend Harbaugh? Without an extension, he’s quickly entering the dead-man-walking phase of his current contract. Gonna be tricky to lure ANY recruit if the coach might be history soon.
I personally think he may bounce for the NFL. His brand is getting torched by OSU right now.
December 18th, 2019 at 7:10 PM ^
When are they gonna extend Harbaugh?
Yes, I double-posted, but this question is important!
December 18th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
Is USC under a self-imposed probation? This makes no sense. At this point, they should just hire Snoop to be their HC. I think him and his pole dancers could do better on the recruiting trail.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
That makes me think of the Cheerleader scene in the replacements.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
USC fans HATE Helton and its tough for a kid to commit to a staff that is in such an unstable situation.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
Are those Tate Forcier's faces superimposed over our coaches?
I love a good random ass post but this one comes with a request for explanation.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
The 2016 and 2018 OSU losses have and will haunt recruiting. Lost out on guys like Friday, NPF, and Harrison specifically due to those losses. Not to mention the general dent to momentum.
Short of being in a recruiting gold mine, the ways recruiting builds is either by a flashy new coach with promise (Harbaugh 2015-2017, Herman at Texas 2018-2019), consistent big wins (Clemson the last 4 years, MSU from 2010-2015 albeit with a hard ceiling), or fishy stuff. Getting in early on guys, finding diamonds in the rough, and being able to connect with them is always part of the equation that any decent big time coaching staff will do, but it will not result in massive gains over time.
Michigan's golden moment to take control of recruiting in the Big Ten and push it to a 2 team race with PSU and everyone else a significant step behind was 2016. Beat OSU, keep PSU out of the Big Ten Championship, and go to the playoff. Recruiting remains hot even with a rough 2017 and the 2018 class isn't Hutchinson, McGrone, and a ton of fliers. 2018 was another shot to make the playoff and take away OSU's biggest prize in Harrison. Both were huge misses.
So this is where Michigan recruiting is, consistently top 2 or 3 in the conference but a big step behind OSU. The only thing that will change that is beating OSU. Massive recruiting wins will not come until that happens because Harbaugh couldn't capitalize on being the flashy new college coach and Michigan isn't going to start throwing around bags consistently. That leaves big wins as the driving force.
I'm not a STARZ!!!!! guy. Michigan can more often than not beat every team on their schedule with who they recruit and how they coach sans 1 team. In the very good years that means it's a 1 game playoff with OSU where Michigan needs to out coach AND make big plays to beat them. No one should expect Michigan to be top 5 in recruiting every season until that OSU damn breaks. The only teams who have recruited that well consistently without winning the "big game" is Georgia (arguably). PSU can't stay in the top 10. Texas has dropped out of the top 5 this year. Once you get outside of the top 4 programs that are always there, it rotates given who has the new coach, made the playoff last year, or start throwing around money. Michigan is in that group and needs the big win to create separation.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Michigan can more often than not beat every team on their schedule with who they recruit and how they coach.
If Michigan only lost to teams who recruit better than us, only the most unreasonable would complain. However, in reality, we fairly regularly lose to teams that recruit at our level or worse.
December 18th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
However, in reality, we fairly regularly lose to teams that recruit at our level or worse.
You literally quoted the part of my comment that says "more often than not" and ignored it.
That doesn't mean Michigan wins every game against every team they out-recruit every time. That means, if played 10 times, I'm confident Michigan would beat every team on their schedule more than 1/2 the time.
The only teams that it could be a toss up against is PSU (even then it would take JOK to consistently make Michigan worse) and maybe Wisconsin.
December 19th, 2019 at 6:45 PM ^
Yeah, this dude below hit it. Wisconsin and Michigan are trading home wins with Wisconsin the closest to win a road game (2016) in a while. They're running 50/50 and Michigan vastly out recruits Wisconsin.
And yes, Michigan finally, mercifully turned the tide the past two years with MSU but for a long time they did lose more often than not despite recruiting better (in fact, only after this win did Michigan have any multi-year stretch with a better than .500 record against MSU in the past 11 years).
We're also trading approx 50/50 with PSU (although I'd give M the edge in the Harbaugh era with the one road win and a near road win this year) but they're recruiting on par with us so that's oustside the bounds of your statement.
December 19th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
Wisconsin says "hi"
December 18th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
Yup, we're stuck in the rut we've always been stuck in. Good enough to be at or near a Top 10 class but have zero big wins or momentum shattering upsets to propel us up to the Top 5 for more than a year. If we beat Ohio in 2016 or 2017, or maybe beat FSU or Florida in the 2016 or 2018 bowl games, we could be up there. I just don't want to hear "we're what we've always been" or "we can't do better until we can pay players." Bullshit, Harbaugh had a Top 5 class when it looked like we were CFP bound in 2016. We'd beaten Florida badly in his first bowl game, our team was light-years more sound throughout the season. There was excitement. We're just a program stuck in neutral right and we need a shot of adrenaline REALLY badly.
Luckily, a big win over Alabama could be just the thing we need, if we pull it off. If we beat Bama, now we're on par with elite in CFB and that has to help. Ohio was trending Top 10-ish until their title game victory in 2014, which put them firmly in the Top 5 from then to now. We are 1 BIG victory over Ohio or Bama or someone of that level from being what we want to be. Penn State was a perpetual 8-4 team that Franklin propelled to the top of B1G with 1 win over Ohio.
I'm not a debbie downer like everyone else on the board, I think B1G titles and CFP appearances are possible. Even with our current staff, but if we don't beat Bama or Ohio next year, then maybe we need to inject some excitement into the program with a new coach. If we lose to Ohio next year, then what's to say we'll beat them the year after with Harbaugh. Why wait for 0-6 when you can gamble on a big name to try and flip the script. I'll never understand the people who say we can't do better than 0-5 against our rival. I know plenty of guys who could go 0-5 against that team. Get it done, or get somebody else to try.
December 21st, 2019 at 7:12 AM ^
It's easy to say, "find a coach who can get the job done against OSU and win the B1G" and then not name who that coach actually is. It's beyond tired to see all the whining on this board about Harbaugh not living up to expectations and then not offering up the slam dunk solution that can deliver. You want to ditch the coach that took this program, which was completely in the gutter, and turned it into a consistent 10 win team overnight and replace him with an unknown commodity? Fine. Name the guy or shut up.
December 18th, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
Not rose tinting this to me, this is a bad class. This is easily the worst class Harbaugh has recruited - by a good distance, yes?
5 years ago, I said, look at this class now, just wait for 5 years and they'll be recruiting like OSU/Clemson/Bama - boy was that false.
Comments