eamonn dennis

Previously: Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety.

Well, the Pax Specialistica has ended. Michigan sent Jake Moody and Brad Robbins to the NFL, ending three years of joy and security, give or take. Robbins did have a rough spell at the end of last year when he was clearly "going through something," as Harbaugh would say, and Moody had one wobbly stretch a couple years back.

Things should be fine, as Michigan has a touted punter waiting in the wings and hit the portal for an established college kicker to give their freshman some time to come online. I do not think kickers should be able to transfer at all, because it is deeply funny when a power program cannot kick 30-yarders, but if they're eligible you might as well get one.

KICKING: LOCAL BOY GROWS MUSTACHE

RATING: 4

The transfer Michigan brought in is JAMES TURNER [recruiting profile], who's coming off a three-year run at Louisville. Years 1 and 3 were solid-to-excellent; he was 13/15 as a freshman and 20/22 as a junior, albeit on mostly short stuff. Half of his attempts were under 30 yards last year—now that's a team with redzone struggles—so that 20/22 only saw UL place 35th in field goal efficiency.

You are probably wondering about year two. Well. It wasn't good. It wasn't horrible; it wasn't good. Turner went 14/22. He was 0/3 from 50+ that year, so that's a bit of a mitigating factor, but 6/10 from 40-49 is not ideal. Turner dropped to 97th in FGE that year.

Michigan will be losing considerable ability to bomb it in from deep.Turner's only career make from 50+ came in 2020; he's 1/6 from range in his career and did not attempt one last year.

He's almost automatic inside 40—one career miss—and is 14/19 from 40-49. Seth goes into absurd detail about his travails and bounce back in that profile if you want to add another 3k words to your War And Preview week. The upshot is that if Turner doesn't go #collegekickers on us he won't be Moody but he'll still be one of the better Michigan kickers in recent history:

Also in things this blog finds extremely important, he has a prospecting mustache.

Buy this man a sarsaparilla. (Offer does not apply to Harbaugh, Jim.)

[After THE JUMP: he's the Doman for his time and place]

Previously: The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. 

WIDE RECEIVER:

RATING: 4

Depth Chart

9/3/2022 – Michigan 51, Colorado State 7 – 1-0

There's no real way around it, folks: the main talking point coming out a shellacking of a very bad team is who did what at quarterback. I extend a grumble towards the AP for framing a not quite generic enough press conference answer from Cade McNamara like so:

McNamara unhappy after No. 8 Michigan beats Colorado St 51-7

One grumble, extended.

But also I, like everyone else, was extending grumbles when Michigan's offense did not seem like a well-oiled death machine. Instead it was more or less last year: hiccups, moving the ball between the twenties, red zone difficulties. This is not my beautiful house. McNamara started out the season by not doing the things he's supposed to do better than his competition, like complete basic passes to move the sticks.

https://youtu.be/dosqiWJu3g4?t=30

Three of his throws on the first couple drives were inaccurate. Maybe more alarming is that McNamara did not attempt anything down the field. We're not talking bombs. A seam, a post, a dig, a deep out: these did not happen. This was in part because CSU is running some DJ Durkin stuff with a safety playing in the parking lot, but this was an audition. You don't get the part by mumbling in the background.

Similarly, if McNamara's going to stay in front because he's reading things better that did not show up either. The throw to Erick All that was nearly intercepted probably would have been complete if All hadn't stumbled, but that was a TE angle on third and ten that's getting tackled short of the sticks unless All does something heroic. Meanwhile Roman Wilson is going to be wide open on a corner route to the field:

https://youtu.be/dosqiWJu3g4?t=204

That play even looks like it's supposed to be ooh shiny for that cornerback to the bottom as he gets Donovan Edwards motioning to him, but McNamara made a pre-snap decision to look left and take a six yard pass on third and ten.

Turn a 61-yard screen pass into a more typical 8-yard one and McNamara averaged 4.6 yards an attempt while completing half his passes. One Bell drop aside this could not be placed on his receiving corps. The operative theory for how McNamara stays in front of the other guy with the cannon arm and Corum speed is that he is a relentless metronome of efficiency. If he's not, it's JJ McCarthy's job to lose.

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McCarthy did nothing to lose it during his second half cameo. It was remarkable how much easier everything suddenly felt. One power play with two DL charging at McCarthy and one wide open arc read keeper, touchdown. The entire stadium goes "hmm," except for the various McCarthy Yahoos in the stands who have been calling for him since McNamara's first incompletion. They are looking around, big-boned and fey, daring anyone to dispute their righteous quest to bench the starter.

Kick a successful McCarthy-era RB run and you'll find a Ram looking up McCarthy well after that is a reasonable thing to do:

CSU LB to top

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dosqiWJu3g4&t=459s

McCarthy didn't tear it up in the air. He did calmly hit a seven yard out to the field on third and five. He looked calm and collected and generally on par with McCarthy when it came to the metronome stuff.

The days here are so early that we can't say much of anything for sure, but if they're at all close when it comes to the basics it's going to be impossible to keep McCarthy off the field.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

CONSUME [Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mazi Smith. Michigan went out of its way to make this section impossible to determine via box score alone. Seven sacks split between ten players; eighteen catches split between fifteen receivers. The defense rotated incessantly, and the starting QB was kind of meh.

I'm pretty sure Smith is going to come out with a big UFR score, though, because he was crushing back whoever he faced. He picked up 1.5 TFLs and half a sack, and three solo tackles is a meaningful stat for a nose. On a third and six in the second half when Michigan sent an exotic blitz, Smith was tasked with holding an edge and two CSU OL, clearly terrified of him, stuck with him the whole play.

So far so good for massive projections.

#2 Blake Corum. Got more than two offensive touches and hurdled a fool so here he is.

#3 Junior Colson. Also a beneficiary of actually getting a bunch of time. Ten tackles, many of them at or near the line of scrimmage, and as of yet no moments that pop out as him running fast in the incorrect direction.

Honorable mention: uhhhhh… Braiden McGregor, Eyabi Anoma, Derrick Moore and Jaylen Harrell all took turns turning in eye-opening edge rushes that may or may not mean anything. Rod Moore caught the ball thrown at him, very nice. Ronnie Bell had a nice catch and was the key block on the Roman Wilson TD; meanwhile Wilson is fast.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

8: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU)
5: Blake Corum (#2 CSU)
3: Junior Colson (#3 CSU)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Eyabi Anoma (HM CSU), Derrick Moore (HM CSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU), Rod Moore (HM CSU), Ronnie Bell (HM CSU), Roman Wilson (HM CSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

JJ McCarthy enters and immediately crumples the CSU run defense, first by drawing two guys when he's a decoy and then by scoring an easy TD on an arc read. Hits different.

Honorable mention: Any of seven different sacks. McGregor flushes the QB up in the pocket and Rod Moore takes advantage. Ronnie Bell's first catch matches up with a fortuitously timed review to allow Michigan Stadium time to offer their appreciation.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

McNamara throws behind a Cornelius Johnson drag route with a good shot at a touchdown and Michigan ends up kicking a field goal, giving off vibes that McNamara is pretty much what he was last year.

Honorable mention: Various commercial breaks. Erick All stumbles and CSU nearly gets a pick. Will Johnson gets beat on a fly route for the CSU TD.