Starting last year I began tracking how the recruiting rankings of Michigan commits and top targets moved, since that sometimes can be as informative as the rankings themselves.

Previously: July 2019 offense. Feb 2019 offense/defense, July 2018

Let's go over the rules again:

1. Rankings Have Gravity. Over the course of a cycle everybody moves down at a normal pace as various other players are moved up. If you're top 20 at the beginning of your junior year, if you get to the end of your senior year in the top 150 you've really stood pat. The further down you started the less I care about downward movement, because nothing really changed about the sites' opinions on that guy—just their opinions on other guys.

2. Every Site Has Their Own Ratings. I'll give you my composite numbers  on a 5-star scale and the raw numbers in the charts. For the others:

Site	5*	High 4*	Solid 4*	Low 4*	High 3*	Decent 3*	3* Pile
247Sports	104-98	97-94	93-90	89-88	87-86	85-81	80-70
Rivals	6.1	6	5.9	5.8	5.7	5.6	5.5
ESPN	100-91	89-86	85-81	80	79	78-77	76-70
Composite	.99+	.98-.97	.93-.90	.89-.88	.87-.86	.85-.81	.80-.70

3. Moves Are Always Contextual. You have to consider what site moved a guy, what box they have him in, and when they saw him or rated him last. ESPN for example will tend to look at a guy when they need to, fire off a rating, and then never go back. Rivals will often hold a guy in the high 3-star range that everyone else loves until the guy gets to a Rivals camp. 24/7 does the same.

On with the show! I've included senior highlights of each if they're available.

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RB Blake Corum

Committed: 6/27/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.39 (up from 4.16)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	90 (#20 RB) #244 OVR	88 (#32 RB) #453 OVR	88 (#31 RB) #363 OVR
Rivals	6.0 (#8 RB) #67 OVR	5.9 (#11 RB) #135 OVR	5.9 (#10 RB) #135 OVR
ESPN	84 (#12 RB) #116 OVR	82 (#18 RB) #173 OVR	not ranked
Composite	0.9458 (#12 RB) #119 OVR	0.9229 (#17 RB) #202 OVR	0.9254 (#16 RB) #194 OVR

What it means: Corum got a big boost over the course of his senior year from every site, and where he has ended up depended on where he started. ESPN's was only less dramatic because they evaluated him late last summer when he was already on the rise. 24/7 was taking a wait-'n-see approach, dropping him about 50 spots in their late February re-rank then leaving him there through an Under Armour camp that belonged to Rivals. Since then Corum was named the Player of the Year in Maryland as St. Francis rolled over a schedule of some of the best high school teams in the country, led by Corum. USA Today even wondered at the rankings as they rose:

Blake Corum might be underrated

It’s not just his huge linemen or play calling. Running back Blake Corum has now put up 200 total yards against two of the best defenses in the country in IMG and Mater Dei.

Corum is widely regarded as one of the best running backs in the country. He is a Michigan commit, is ranked by the 247Sports Composite as the No. 13 at his position and No. 143 in the country.

But might those rankings be too low? It’s tough to imagine 12 backs leading an offense better than this player. Could there really be 142 players better?

Rivals' Adam Friedman did a film on Corum in their "Rapid Riser" segment.

#RivalsRankingsWeek: Rapid Riser

RB Blake Corum jumped 136 spots from the #Rivals250 to the #Rivals100! The #Michigan commit now sits at No. 67.

️ @RivalsFriedman breaks down @blake_corum's rapid rise.

1⃣0⃣0⃣ https://t.co/1VGbLcV0eb
2⃣5⃣0⃣ https://t.co/hsWGNtxlRn pic.twitter.com/hlOglRCXEd

— Rivals (@Rivals) December 5, 2019

I think there's little doubt the sites are following the national headlines on this one. He's having one of the best senior seasons in the country against the best competition.

Outlook: They're the relative skeptic so here's how 247's evaluation leads off:

Concern about being physically maxed out….Needs to show he can run between tackles consistently in college. Size to touch ball 15-plus times a game a concern. Multi-year high-level contributor at Top 15 program. Could develop into a Day Three NFL draft pick.

Dohn has continued beating this "I don't know if he can be Northwestern's offense all by himself" drum even after answering the part about running inside:

He ran for tough yards in the middle, and he was able to get to the edge a few times. He was patient and let the plays develop, and he picked up key yardage to get first downs. Whether he can touch the ball 20-plus times a game in college remains a question, but he can carry the load for St. Frances.

I find this dubious. There is certainly a kind of recruit to watch out for who has an early growth spurt, puts up crazy numbers as a high school underclassman, then falls back to the pack as the rest of his class hits puberty too (examples: Ricardo Miller, Marvin Robinson, a zillion offensive linemen who were already 300 as sophomores). There's also the kind of high school dynamo who'll never be big enough to play college football, but that's more of a concern for 5'8"/165 guys; Corum is 30 pounds heavier than that. That take however doesn't seem likely to change unless Corum's body type changes.

There's always the worry with a running back who was used to a great offensive line—both tackles are going to Power 5 schools, Mazzccua is in this post, and the other guard is going to Kent State—that he's just getting escorted to the second level (see Ty Isaac, Derrick Green) but if you watch the highlights that doesn't seem to be the case.

[The rest AFTER THE JUMP]

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RB Gaige Garcia

Committed: 6/25/2019. Current ☆ average: 2.93 (previous 2.94)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	81 (#150 RB) #2200 OVR	81 (not ranked)
Rivals	5.4 (not ranked)	5.4 (not ranked)
ESPN	71 (#144 RB) not ranked	NR
Composite	0.8173 (#141 RB) #2156 OVR	0.8106 (#138 RB) #1939 OVR

What it means: Garcia is a walk-on who'll take a wrestling scholarship. Brian liked his film. But because he's on the list ESPN took a gander then put him where 24/7 had him.

Outlook: Again, the thing about wrestling is it's a make weight sport, which makes it really hard to shape your body for both.

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Slot A.J. Henning

Committed: 6/26/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.50 (was 4.52)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	93 (#27 WR)#141 OVR	93 (#26 WR) #127 OVR	#25 OVR	#25 OVR
Rivals	5.9 (#14 WR) #86 OVR	5.9 (#3 APB) #84 OVR	#110 OVR
ESPN	84 (#16 WR) #108 OVR	84 (#17 WR) #105 OVR	85 (#8 WR)#51 OVR
Composite	0.958 (#17 WR)#92 OVR	0.9604 (#16 WR)#80 OVR	#51 OVR	#40 OVR

What it means: Rivals moved him to their wide receivers group but otherwise no change since the big drop when Ohio State backed off and he became a Michigan-Notre Dame battle.

Outlook: I said before that his senior season won't change the ratings much unless something bad happens:

"Henning's rating has calcified as a top-150'ish player but he'll probably fall out of the composite Top 100 naturally as more guys are scouted. There's no positional uncertainty and he ain't getting any taller, and that appears to be the main complaint about an otherwise electric slot receiver.

Lo.

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Slot/RB Eamonn Dennis

Committed: 6/24/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.77 (was 3.76)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	88 (#32 ATH) #537 OVR	88 (#41 ATH) #505 OVR	not rated	not rated
Rivals	5.7 (#78 WR) not ranked	5.7 (#73 WR) not ranked
ESPN	79 (#38 ATH) not ranked	78 (#44 ATH) not ranked
Composite	0.8776 (#24 ATH) #508 OVR	0.8789 (#34 ATH) #483 OVR	not rated	not rated

What it means: The slight bump from ESPN is the only interesting thing—the move up the positional rankings among Athletes is mostly due to various athletes ahead of Dennis choosing an on-field classification. ESPN moves their scores down slowly as more guys are added to the pile, but this is usually more dynamic in the upper echelons. That 79 is meaningful: ESPN thinks he's just behind the 4-stars now that almost all of the class has been seen.

He's also 100% on track to sign his LOI in a few days after some speculation (including here) that his senior season would have to show some growth. Apparently it did. This is really reading the entrails here but I believe with a prospect like this when you suddenly get a coach visit and an article about you from the recruiting reporters who have good connections inside the program, that's Michigan's coaches sending a message that they're serious about a guy the 3-star mafia is wondering about.

Outlook: You can't get much higher than this without leaving Massachusetts for camps and whatnot. Sainristil never did and ended up around this spot. Dennis plans on committing this week and Don Brown visited after interviewing for the BC job to make sure. Sixty percent chance his prospectin name becomes "ol' Sainrisitl."

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WR Roman Wilson

Committed: 7/2/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.95 (was 3.97)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	91 (#38 WR)#232 OVR	91 (#43 WR) #218 OVR	#856 OVR	#790 OVR	not rated
Rivals	5.7 (#80 WR) not ranked	5.7 (#76 WR) not ranked
ESPN	80 (#55 WR) not ranked	80 (#55 WR) not ranked
Composite	0.8908 (#61 WR)#359 OVR	0.8927 (#59 WR)#333 OVR	#1026 OVR	#909 OVR	not rated

 

What it means: If it wasn't for the new site (thanks HUEL!) and the highlighter feature you would have missed the most subtle change in Roman Wilson's rankings. Moving up five spots among their receivers when athletes are pouring into their ranks is more like a 15-spot bump. Discovered only last summer by the sites and shot upwards. That trajectory looks like it's going down now as senior year discoveries slide into the top 250. There doesn't seem to have been a re-rank of Roman yet.

Outlook: I predicted he'd drop about 50 spots by now in the natural course of recruiting gravity, and he only fell half of that while rising considerably among receivers. This is a small but subtle climb. If Wilson hits more camps and shows off the same elite athleticism that shot him into four-star territory from the great pile of unknowns who go to various bits of the University of California system he could get into the top-300 or 250 or 247. Rivals is the soft one here, as their opinion of "middle high three star" hasn't changed at all.

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TE Matthew Hibner

Committed: 6/9/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.81 (up from 3.50)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	92 (#7 TE)#156 OVR	85 (#45 TE) #1047 OVR	not rated	not rated	not rated
Rivals	5.6 (#35 TE) not ranked	5.5 not ranked
ESPN	76 (#21 TE-Y) not ranked	76 (#17 TE-Y) not ranked
Composite	0.8853 (#13 TE)#414 OVR	0.8485 (#46 TE)#1076 OVR	not rated	not rated	not rated

What it means: Your annual who-dat TE prospect Michigan pulled from the East Coast is not a who-dat to 24/7, who've bumped him almost to their top 257, put him among their top-10 tight ends in the country, and handed him a very solid 4*. Rivals glanced and gave him a "okay this is a TE" ranking, up from "We sort of acknowledge this person exists."

24/7 certainly thinks it knows something; the offers haven't changed from service academies, Ivies, and Arizona State. Brian Dohn has a scouting report that sounds like Sean McKeon:

Very good frame with ability to add 15-20 pounds. No bad weight. Athletic, long, runs well. Ran electronic 40 in 4.82 seconds. Accelerates well. Physical down the field and after catch. Strong hands. Tracks ball well. Can chip and get into route quickly. Has ability to be flanked wide. Needs to improve route running. Rounds breaks. Has to stay lower and explode more getting off line of scrimmage as inline tight end. Blocking skills need development. Multi-year starter at Top 15 program. Day 3 NFL draft potential.

I'm taking a guess here, but with McKeon leaving early for the NFL combined with the impeding transfer of Mustapha Muhammad, Michigan is already expecting to burn one of their freshman TEs' redshirts, and since they're out of it for Theo Johnson now I would hazard a guess that somebody in the program is letting us know they see Hibner stepping in immediately.

Outlook: ESPN tends to fire and forget so I doubt we'll get an update from them. TheWolverine last covered him in the summer, when Hibner was coming off a junior season in which he moved to tight end from defense. But you seldom see this kind of disagreement between sites—5.6 is not a "We've been watching" kind of ranking from Rivals. There might be a senior re-eval coming down the pipeline.

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TE Nick Patterson

Committed: 9/9/2018. Current ☆ average: 3.58 (down from 3.74)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	85 (#46 TE) #996 OVR	87 (#24 TE) #667 OVR	83 (#30 TE) #885 OVR	83 (#23 TE) #718 OVR
Rivals	5.7 (#23 TE) not ranked	5.7 (#17 TE) not ranked	5.8 (#5 TE) #201 OVR	5.8, not ranked
ESPN	74 (#28 TE-H) not ranked	3-star, no rating	no profile
Composite	0.8592 (#38 TE)#861 OVR	0.8738 (#17 TE)#549 OVR	0.8748 (#10 TE) #458 OVR	.8427 (#23 TE) #691 OVR	0.8532 (#75 TE) #934 OVR

What it means: There's less disagreement now. Patterson started out as a nondescript 4-star that all the sites knew about because of his five-star brother Shea. Rivals introduced him among their top-250 while 24/7 started out a high skeptic, then they came together last summer to agree he's a high 3-star. Since then 24/7 has gone back to their initial thinking, Rivals hasn't moved him, and ESPN has added a middling 3-star (what we used to call a 2-star) ranking.

The other change on his recruiting site is he's taken some visits, including one to Georgia Tech in September and to Memphis over the past weekend. I don't know if this means his offer to Michigan still stands, or if he thinks he's going to have a hard time finding playing time, or what. Memphis has been after him for years, FWIW.

Outlook: I started the warnings last time because I thought the offers told the story of a guy getting interest mainly from the school where his brother's the starting QB. At the time I said adjust your expectations to that of a 3-star—not a 3-star with tremendous upside or much more to learn about him but your standard "this is an FBS football player who could be useful when he's an upperclassman" kind of 3-star. He did win first team all-district at tight end so his senior season wasn't bad. But taking a visit to Memphis this close to signing day, and four days after Michigan did not get a higher rated recruit at his position, might signal that a parting of ways is coming, or at least Patterson isn't solid.

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OG Zak Zinter

Committed: 5/16/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.07 (was 4.09)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	89 (#18 OG) #388 OVR	90 (#25 OT) #329 OVR	90 (#28 OT) #332 OVR	not rated
Rivals	5.8 (#16 OT) #149 OVR	5.8 (#16 OT) #157 OVR	5.8 (#16 OT) #147 OVR
ESPN	80 (#13 OG) not ranked	80 (#13 OG) not ranked	not ranked	not rated
Composite	0.9060 (#11 OG) #273 OVR	0.9083 (#23 OT) #273 OVR	0.9207 (#21 OT) #217 OVR	#421 OVR	#756 OVR

What it means: The scouts made one trip already to Buckingham Browne & Nichols of North Andover, Massachusetts. Everyone but Rivals now acknowledges that Zinter is a guard prospect, which revelation dropped him to the other side of the border between 4- and 3-stars. That also moved Zinter to 4th among Massachusetts prospects when he was 2nd—behind Michigan classmate Kalel Mullings—before. That's a 6'7"/275 OT prospect going to Boston College who 24/7 loves, and a tight end going to Colorado who just got evaluated.

Outlook: Zinter is just barely hanging onto four stars at the other sites, which are unlikely to move him because he's an offensive lineman in Massachusetts. Since we're not getting any more information other than this is a Bradenesque fella Notre Dame and Michigan both wanted, I'd guess he's set there.

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OT Jeffrey Persi

Committed: 6/25/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.00, up from 3.89

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	90 (#26 OT) #278 OVR	87 (#43 OT) #539 OVR	86 (#64 OT) #593 OVR	#502 OVR	not rated
Rivals	5.8 (#33 OT) not ranked	5.8 (#35 OT) not ranked	#33 Calif	not rated
ESPN	80 (#33 OT) not ranked	80 (#33 OT) not ranked	not rated
Composite	0.8958 (#26 OT) #320 OVR	0.8850 (#35 OT) #412 OVR	#521 OVR	#615 OVR	not rated

 

What it means: The lineman I'm most excited about in this class, Persi had a big jump in May after hitting the Super Lineman Tournament and got noted for his ridiculous length. Another rise came after he appeared at the Opening. Both times it was masked by lots of other super-risers.

24/7 is the only one so far to look at his senior film. They were the stragglers before but bumped Persi nearly into their top 250 recently. I think they're paying more attention overall to Frey-types to avoid some of the common recruiting mistakes with ready-made tackles who are just too big for high schoolers. ESPN not moving him at all is moving him, since there have been other tackles evaluated in the interim, though it's so slight that's probably not a re-rank at all.

Outlook: The former tight end got a season to show what he can do at left tackle, his projected position in college, and got the slow climb up to four stars we recall from similar prospect Jaylen Mayfield. I think there's some climbing left since Rivals has him in a very "we're going to evaluate this" position among tackles. ESPN probably won't look again.

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OL Reece Atteberry

Committed: 6/23/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.82 (down from 3.89)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	89 (#10 OC) #393 OVR	90 (#4 OC) #266 OVR	#118 OVR	#108 OVR	#207 OVR
Rivals	5.7 (#55 OT) not ranked	5.7 (#51 OT) not ranked
ESPN	79 (#49 OT) not ranked	79 (#47 OT) not ranked
Composite	0.8830 (#8 OC) #434 OVR	0.8863 (#8 OC) #403 OVR	#235 OVR	#232 OVR	#279 OVR

What it means: The drop by 24/7 from 90 to 89 is sorta substantial—I'm sure they were aware they were moving a Michigan four-star commit to three-star range. They also still have him at center, although Atteberry told TheWolverine in August that the coaches plan on starting him out at right tackle first. I wouldn't read too much into either of those positional designations; Michigan will have a lot of young linemen coming up, including two potential centers in the 2019 class.

The drop and positional difference mask what's more or less a total agreement among the sites now. I think some of the early rankings—especially Reece's flirtation with a top-100 ranking on 24/7 a year ago—came when Ohio State first started showing interest. Into spring last year the Buckeyes and Irish had joined Iowa in the fight—all schools who've shown they're good at scouting the position. I think 24/7 was following that interest and after the June commitment to Michigan there was no more reason to try to figure out if the inside-outside tweener deep inside Colorado was a thing.

Outlook: I had hoped the inevitable drop-off would be more gradual but 24/7 ripped the band-aid and the other two sites really didn't move him anywhere inside a pile of about 30 tackle prospects about to enter the "hell if I know with offensive linemen" chipper. There's not a lot to glean from that since 24/7 doesn't have an evaluation to explain the drop. Lorenz did post some mid-season tape.

I do wonder if he'd be a top-250 prospect if he'd dragged out his recruitment longer, given the three schools he was most interested in are those that tend to drive plenty of recruiting clicks. I don't think it would have meant anything more if it had.

By the way this Wednesday is his birthday. On behalf of all late December birthdayists like myself* I'd like to wish Reece a very happy that's your birthday present too.

* [Now you can name two Jews born on Christmas]

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OG Micah Mazzccua

Committed: 2/25/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.65 (from 3.60)

	Dec 2019	July 2019	Feb 2019	Dec 2018	July 2018
247Sports	85 (#54 OG) #1121 OVR	85 (#89 OT) #1019 OVR	85 (#89 OT) #812 OVR
Rivals	5.7 (#46 OT) not ranked	5.6 (#68 OT) not ranked	5.6 not ranked
ESPN	79 (#29 OG) not ranked	79 (#28 OG) not ranked	not ranked
Composite	0.8696 (#38 OG) #623 OVR	0.8622 (#65 OT) #757 OVR	0.8527 (#76 OT) #771 OVR

What it means: Nobody had heard of Micah until he switched schools to play for one of the best programs in the country, on perhaps the best line in the country. He got the "okay we've heard of you" scores after that, but the only re-evaluation here is from Rivals, who pushed Micah into the higher bracket of 3-stars. They're also the only site ranking this guard who plays guard as an offensive tackle. Dohn did get us an eval that seems to track with the overall picture of a raw prospect with lots of upside:

Michigan commit Micah Mazzccua can play guard or tackle, and he demonstrated an improved agility and athleticism. His physical style was part of the reason St. Frances was able to wear down the defense and take control in the second half. Mazzccua has good length and size, and will continue to re-shape his body as he readies for Michigan.

Outlook: The down note is there are rumblings that Mazzccuah might not be able to get into Michigan right away. I wonder if he'll get a slight bump they've been withholding if he signs with Michigan this week. If he doesn't, I think he might end up one of those guys (Brad Hawkins most recently) who get downgraded from a near 4-star position and end up a middling 3-star because the sites don't want to gamble on a guy they're not sure is going to be in his college program in a year.

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Next time: Defense.