roman wilson

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

Things hadn't gone well for Michigan in the second half. Through 26 minutes of football, the offense hadn't scored a point and a three point halftime lead turned into a seven point deficit in the later stages of the fourth quarter. Michigan needed a drive to tie the game and as the eleven men took the field, it was fair to deem it a legacy drive for so many veteran heroes of this Michigan team, JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum, Roman Wilson, and the rest of the OL. They needed to make plays and tie the game. They would. Then a little while later with the score 27-20, Michigan's defense needed to get one stop to slam the door and win the game. They did.  

Backs against the wall, this Michigan team dug deeper than they've had to all season, battling their own errors and demons to rally against #4 Alabama and win the 110th Rose Bowl Game, 27-20. Touchdowns from Wilson and Corum late put Michigan in the lead and the defense shut down two potential Alabama drives to tie or win the game as this veteran Wolverine team had the necessary answers. 366 days after the heartbreak at the hands of TCU in the 2022 semifinals, Michigan got to give the great Crimson Tide their own dose of heartbreak. Michigan is 14-0 and headed to the National Championship Game. 

-----

It's hard to envision a more disastrous, BPONE start to the game than what nearly occurred on the first play from scrimmage. JJ McCarthy took the snap, rolled to his right, and despite having Roman Wilson open for free yards, held the ball looking for Cornelius Johnson. Johnson was not open but McCarthy threw it anyway, right to Alabama safety Caleb Downs, who toe-tapped for an interception deep in Michigan territory. Catastrophe... or not. It was pointed out shortly thereafter that Downs had stepped out of bounds on his last step before catching the ball, never re-establishing himself in the field of play, which made the pass incomplete instead. Michigan was let off the hook. 

[Patrick Barron]

The drive that followed after the mulligan Michigan had been gifted was a dud. The Wolverines ran a quick screen to Semaj Morgan with TEs blocking in front of him and he was tackled promptly. That set up 3rd & 8 and McCarthy threw short of the sticks to a well-covered AJ Barner, which was an easy PBU by the Bama defense. The Wolverine offense was out of sorts early and needed the defense to pick them up, which happened. Michigan sacked Jalen Milroe twice on the opening Alabama drive, one from Braiden McGregor and one from Josaiah Stewart, forcing a quick three-and-out. 

Then came the deadly mistake that did count. Alabama punter James Burnip lofted a rather short kick and Semaj Morgan ran up to field it, sensing the opportunity for a good return. Perhaps Morgan had his eyes pointed downfield too early but he never secured the catch and put the ball on the ground. Alabama recovers, taking over at the Michigan 44. Gifted great field position, the Tide grinded out a first down on the ground and then hit a home run shot when the right side of Alabama's OL caved in the Michigan DL and Mike Sainristil blew a tackle on Jase McClelland, who was off to the races and into the end zone. 7-0 Alabama and about as bad of a first five minutes for Michigan as you could have imagined. 

With the team reeling, the Michigan offense needed to step up and they did, utilizing a well-crafted scripted drive from OC Sherrone Moore that used all kinds of tricks to put Alabama's defense in conflict. A neat pitch play to Blake Corum picked up 21 and then a designed run for JJ McCarthy picked up 7 on 3rd & 8. Michigan paved Bama on 4th & 1 to pick up the first down and two plays later they got Kalel Mullings running a route matched up on a LB, which McCarthy identified and targeted for 19. That got Michigan into the red zone and they needed just two plays to get it in the end zone, a jet sweep to Morgan and then a pass to Corum who was wide open underneath for a walk-in TD. 7-7 tie. 

[Patrick Barron]

Alabama's third drive looked a lot like their first, utter domination at the hands of the Michigan defense. The first down run was stuffed, then a quick incompletion, and finally pressure forced Milroe to scramble, falling down short of the line to gain. Three-and-out and another punt. Michigan did appear to be let off the hook on the punt when Kechaun Bennett made contact with the Alabama punter, who did his best to sell the call. Referees didn't buy it and the Wolverines took over. They had another solid drive brewing near midfield when Max Bredeson was called for a personal foul after jumping on the player he had been blocking, making helmet-to-helmet contact. That erased a first down run and turned it into 2nd & 11 for a foul unrelated to the play. Michigan ended up getting to 4th & 1 despite the setback but opted to punt on their half of midfield. 

Still no dice, for the Bama offense, though. Mike Barrett sacked Milroe on first down, then Milroe was sacked by Kris Jenkins on 2nd down. Faced with 3rd & 23, Michigan conceded the 12 yard QB draw from Milroe and forced another punt. Michigan's offense was still missing an effective McCarthy and that killed their next drive. They gained four yards on first down thanks to an Alex Orji run but McCarthy missed an open Cornelius Johnson down the field, airmailing it over his head. On 3rd & 6 McCarthy targeted Roman Wilson, who was not open, and the ball fell incomplete. Punt. 

The defensive struggle continued. Michigan shut down Bama runs on first and second down and then Mike Sainristil sniffed out a 3rd & 9 Milroe keeper to force yet another Alabama punt. Michigan took the ball back over and began what would be a much busier close to the half for the two teams after a long stretch of defensive dominance. Michigan started it on the ground, Blake Corum churning out yards and then McCarthy delivered a missile to Colston Loveland for 12 yards over the middle. Michigan then dialed up a double pass, with Donovan Edwards throwing laterally across the field to McCarthy. His throw was nearly too high for McCarthy, who had to catch it, step backwards, and throw, all with Alabama EDGE superstar Dallas Turner bearing down on him. Amazingly, JJ did so and got it complete deep down the field for Wilson into Alabama territory. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: more recap]

12/2/2023 – Michigan 26, Iowa 0 – 13-0, 9-0 Big Ten, Big Ten Champs

Two years ago this game was a coronation, a delight, a confection. Michigan broke out a halfback pass in the first half, and a reverse that went a billion yards, and sort of exuberantly leaned on Iowa until they capitulated in the second half. Michigan's lead at halftime in that game: 11.

Michigan's lead at halftime in this game: 10. It wasn't more largely because Colston Loveland dropped a pass at his facemask while a couple yards clear of the coverage, set to run a great distance down the sideline. But things felt different.

I believe it was Matt Hinton who said that Michigan fans almost didn't care about getting shredded by the Georgia buzzsaw because everything after Ohio State was gravy. As someone who attended that game and was in largely Georgia section, the "almost" is doing some work in that sentence. But it is largely correct. The disappointment faded quickly, replaced with a lingering sunset of beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten.

Two years later, there is still that lingering sunset, yes. Especially given all the nonsense surrounding this year's edition of The Game. You KNOW I am sensitive to winning against Ohio State for the third year in a row.

But!

-------------------------------------------------

Michigan is not staring down the Soon To Be Philadelphia Eagles this time around. Georgia looked kind of off kilter much of the season and lost to Alabama, which means the SP+ rankings of the teams in the playoff look like this:

1. Michigan
6. Texas
7. Alabama
11. Washington

Texas is 7.5 points adrift of Michigan. Alabama is 8.4. Washington is 13.7. I do not quite believe this, largely because Penn State ranks 4th and Michigan is getting credit for stuffing them in a locker when pretty much any top-ten defense would have done the same. Vegas installed Michigan as a mere two-point favorite over Alabama, so they don't either. But this is a huge departure from what usually happens these days, which are lines that hew so closely to SP+ projections that Bill Connelly occasionally crabs about it on Twitter. Usually the numbers are good enough to get Vegas in line, but maybe not when the numbers would install Michigan more than a TD favorite right after Alabama beat Georgia.

Or you could visualize it like this:

Every single way you can systematically evaluate college football teams has Michigan a sizable favorite to win the national title. Connelly's numbers have it 50/50 between Michigan and the field. The reasons you would not believe those numbers range from misunderstandings of the way Michigan plays football (with maximum contempt for most opponents) to legitimate but probably not sufficient to close the gap. That latter is primarily Zak Zinter's injury.

In short: it all happened. There was a month-long storm of nonsense in the middle of it but nothing could knock Michigan off their perch. At the beginning of the year, it looked like The Year:

Every single one of us has stared grimly at the wall wondering if it would ever happen. Well. Here it is. It might not happen, by by God they're gonna try.

Let's go name some wild dreams, on three.

Even in the most optimistic world this is still a coinflip for immortality. Heads or tails?

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mike Sainristil. Two(-ish) forced fumbles leading to turnovers, a near-interception, and a postgame interview that caused Mark Ingram to exclaim "oh, you polished!" Running for Senate in the future. Or maybe becoming Michigan's head coach down the road.

#2 Semaj Morgan. Did one(1) thing, and then let a couple of punts drop that were questionable decisions. But did the thing, and if people were joking about 3-0 being game, 10-0 really was game.

#3 Junior Colson. A billion tackles at the line of scrimmage… and pass breakups? Filing under Played Iowa. But still! But filing under played Iowa.

Honorable mention: Cornelius Johnson had many catches for not many yards. Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins, and Kenneth Grant stuffed the ground game. Jaylen Harrell had a TFL and a PBU; Braiden McGregor had a strip-sack that Grant recovered.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

53: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU, #1 OSU)
29: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU, T2 OSU, HM Iowa)
28: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU, #1 MD, #1 Iowa)
25: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU, HM Iowa) 
22: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU, HM MD, #3 OSU)
21: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU, HM Iowa)
14: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR), Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR, HM MD, HM OSU)
13: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR, HM MD, #3 OSU)
11: AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU),
11: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR, HM Iowa)
10: Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU, #3 OSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR, #3 OSU, HM Iowa)
9: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU, #3 Iowa)
8: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn, HM Iowa)
7: Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR),
5: Tommy Doman (HM ECU, #3 MD, HM OSU), Semaj Morgan(#2 Iowa)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR), The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU),
3: Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU, HM OSU)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Rod Moore (HM PUR, HM OSU), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers, HM OSU)
1: Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU), Cam Goode (HM MD), James Turner(HM OSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Semaj Morgan sets a Big Ten championship game record for longest punt return:

Honorable mention: Sainristil forces two fumbles, the second of which sends Brian Ferentz into a conniption fit. Nobody gets hurt.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Colston Loveland drops a pass midway through the second quarter, turning a catch and run down to the 30—maybe 20—into a punt and causing Consternation amongst the Faithful.

Honorable mention: Barner drops a pass on third and thirteen that would have set up first and goal inside the five. McCarthy nearly throws an INT on a ball well behind Loveland. A Tommy Doman punt is possessed by the spirit of the corn and bounces ten yards backwards instead of ten yards forwards.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti congratulates the conference champions with a memorable speech: "…"

Dishonorable mention: The CFP committee excludes a 13-0 conference champion in favor of a team that barely escaped 6-6 Auburn a week ago.