stargazing

Jimmystats: July 2019 Recruiting Deltas Comment Count

Seth July 13th, 2018 at 11:17 AM

Let's stare at stars [Patrick Barron who does more than MGoBlog stuff check out his Etsy]

Starting last year I began keeping track on the changes in recruiting rankings, since movement tends to tell us things about a recruit that their ratings at any given moment do not.

I was putting this together a month ago actually, but then half of the high schoolers in America committed to Michigan and this post was left in the bin. Since we have a bunch of new recruits and 247 just updated their rankings yesterday based on their scouting from various summer camps, it's a good time to check in. Anyway that's why there's the weirdness of June 15 rankings on everybody committed by then—I figured you'd prefer I leave those in.

Things to keep in mind:

  1. Recruiting gravity means rankings will slowly drop as more players are scouted and slotted ahead of them. Going from the #209 to #225 player in a month isn't a drop unless his rating dropped too.
  2. I didn't get around to taking snapshots of Rivals and ESPN in late May, and only got the new commits' data when they dropped. As this series continues we'll have more complete data.
  3. By now I imagine you're familiar with the three sites' rating systems but just in case: For 247 the 80-89 range are 3-stars, the 90-97 range are the 4-stars, and 98+ are 5-stars. ESPN is on a 100 scale, so 70s are 3-stars, 80s are 4-stars, 90s are 5-stars. Rivals uses the old National Recruiting Advisor system: 5.5 to 5.7 are 3-stars, 5.8 to 6.0 are 4-stars, and 6.1 is a 5-star. The 247 composite can be read like you put a "%" next to their regular ratings, but .8900 is the cut-off for a 4-star instead of 90.

QB Cade McNamara

Service March 17 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 90, #305 Ovr, #9 PRO 90, #310 Ovr, #10 PRO 90, #321 Ovr, #10 PRO
Rivals 5.8, NR, #9 Pro 5.8, NR, #9 Pro 5.8, NR, #10 Pro
ESPN 78, #296 Ovr, #8 Pro, #45 West 78, #296 Ovr, #8 PRO, #45 West 81, #240 Ovr, #14 Pro, #36 West
Composite 0.9004, #316 Ovr, #9 PRO 0.9067, #263 Ovr, #10 PRO 0.9067, #269 Ovr, #10 PRO

Michigan's (first?) quarterback of the class is climbing steadily, and got bumped to a strong 4-star when ESPN solidified their Top 300, which means he survived a bunch of other recently scouted quarterbacks moving up. On the other hand they slid a good six other quarterbacks ahead of him, including BC-bound Sam Johnson from Walled Lake Western.

McNamara's been participating in whatever the new format of the Elite 11 is, and his performance so far has crystallized the opinion of him as a four-star but still just outside everyone's Top 250.

His reported weight is up too. He's now 206 (247) or 202 (Rivals) or 203 (ESPN) lbs, up from 179.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the class]

RB Zach Charbonnet

Service June 25 (committed) Today
247Sports 91, #220 Ovr, #9 RB 95, #40 Ovr, #4 RB
Rivals 5.8, NR, #20 RB 5.8, NR, #20 RB
ESPN 80, NR #26 RB, #64 West 80, NR , #26 RB, #63 West
Composite 0.9000, #302 Ovr, #15 RB 0.9240, #187 Ovr, #10 RB

As promised in the podcast with Steve Lorenz, Charbonnet got a major boost from 247 this week, up to a 95 rating (high four-star), the #4 running back prospect in the country, and inside the Top 50. But don't fear—he's still 8 spots away from a ranking that would end up a 5-star, with a season to go for others to jump him. I know how y'all feel about 5-star running backs.

Rivals and ESPN remain far lower on him, placing him about on the edge of the four-stars. That's dragging down the composite, though I believe that's a lack of scouting on the ESPN and Rivals's parts, and I bet we'll see at least ESPN bump him up with the post-commit evaluation comes through, if that's still a thing.

RB Eric Gray

Service July 1 (committed) Today
247Sports 95, #95 Ovr, #1 APB 94, #86 Ovr, #1 APB
Rivals 5.6, NR, #9 APB 5.6, NR, #9 APB
ESPN 81, #275 Ovr, #17 RB 81, #275 Ovr, #17 RB, #141 SE
Composite 0.9087, #175 Ovr, #3 APB 0.9099, #247 Ovr, #3 APB

It hasn't been two weeks since he committed so this is mostly a baseline, but one thing that happened is he dropped a grade to 247, which hasn't seemed to harm his Top-100 ranking to 247 (he's now up to 86th). However his Composite ranking fell a bunch without affecting his composite score, which means a load of other guys just made it into the composite ranking.

Rivals continues to comically underrate Gray, which is fine because Mike Hart did to New York rushing records what Gray is in the process of doing to Tennessee rushing records, and only got up to a 5.7 on Rivals.

Slot George Johnson III

Service June 23 (committed) Today
247Sports 85, #967 Ovr, #95 ATH 85, #984 Ovr, #97 ATH
Rivals 5.6, NR, NR ATH 5.6, NR, NR ATH
ESPN No rating 78, NR, #50 ATH, #308 Southeast
Composite 0.8527, #947 Ovr, #85 ATH 0.8527, #959 Ovr, #86 ATH

The only change is ESPN put up a scouting grade. He's their 98th player in Florida, so that's either slightly higher than the other sites or means ESPN has scouted fewer Florida players (probably the latter).

Slot target Mike Sainristil

Service June 26 (when those CBs flipped) Today
247Sports 86, #740 Ovr, #66 CB 86, #753 Ovr, #67 CB
Rivals 5.6, NR, #65 ATH 5.6, NR, #65 ATH
ESPN 78, NR, #45 ATH, #64 East 78, NR, #45 ATH, #64 East
Composite 0.8635, #716 Ovr, #62 CB 0.8635, #719 Ovr, #63 CB

People think Michigan is likely to flip Sainristil from Virginia Tech, so in case that happens I've been including him in my tracking. Please don't take that for information: the only "Insider" stuff I get is from borrowing a friend's 247 account.

Anyway Sainristil is still "Lives in Massachusetts" to everybody, which is probably where he'll remain. 247 still has him at cornerback, although I believe Michigan wants him to play slot.

TE Erick All

Service June 23 (committed) Today
247Sports 88, #479 Ovr, #22 TE 88, #480 Ovr, #23 TE
Rivals 5.7, NR, #23 TE 5.7, NR, #23 TE
ESPN 78, NR, #13 TE-H, #49 MW 78, NR, #14 TE-H, #53 MW
Composite 0.8776, #504 Ovr, #22 TE 0.8776, #510 Ovr, #22 TE

No change.

OG Zach Carpenter

Service May 31 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 88, #464 Ovr, #21 OG 88, #471 Ovr, #21 OG 88, #474 Ovr, #23 OG
Rivals 5.7, NR, #15 OG 5.7, NR, #18 OG 5.7, NR, #18 OG
ESPN 78, NR, #34 OG, #48 MW 78, NR, #34 OG, #48 MW 78, NR, #36 OG, #51 MW
Composite 0.8788, #486 Ovr, #19 OG 0.8776, #504 Ovr, #18 OG 0.8776, #509 Ovr, #20 OG

No change.

OT Karsen Barnhart

Service April 30 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 89, #379 Ovr, #41 OT 90, #235 Ovr, #26 OT 91, #237 Ovr, #27 OT
Rivals 5.7, NR, #44 OT 5.7, NR, #46 OT 5.7, NR, #46 OT
ESPN 79, NR, #36 OT, NR MW 79, NR, #36 OT, #35 MW 79, NR, #37 OT, #37 MW
Composite 0.8714, #421 Ovr, #39 OT 0.8884, #382 Ovr, #39 OT 0.8881, #390 Ovr, #39 OT

The only site to report on Barnhart at the local regional camps for The Opening and Under Armour was 247, and they liked what they saw enough to bump him into 4-star range, where he's holding steady inside the Top 247.

OG Nolan Rumler

Service July 29, 2017 (committed) Feb 10 June 15 Today
247Sports 92, #123 Ovr, #15 OT 93, #94 Ovr, #4 OT 92, #156 Ovr, #7 OT 92, #154 Ovr, #7 OT
Rivals 5.8 (OG) 5.9, #86 Ovr, #5 OG 5.9, #98 Ovr, #5 OG 5.9, #117 Ovr, #8 OG
ESPN No rating 85, #48 Ovr, #3 OG 85, #53 Ovr, #3 OG, #4 MW 83, #180 Ovr, #8 OG, #11 MW
Composite .9214, #142 Ovr, #18 OT 0.9688, #65 Ovr, #5 OT 0.9438, #135 Ovr, #6 OT 0.944, #126 Ovr, #7 OT

We've had a few weeks short of a year to track the first member of the 2019 offensive class, which means he caught my post-Signing Day check-in and we get an idea of what will probably happen with Michigan's 2020 commits as the databases fill in. What happens is a bit of a slip over successive re-ranks. The two most noticeable were 247 dropping him from a 93 to a 92, and ESPN going down to an 83 from an 85. That's basically a 4.5-star going to a solid 4-star, and not that big of a deal. He's held serve with Rivals and hasn't popped up lately at any camps that I've seen so he's probably going to continue marginally falling behind until this fall.

On the other hand Ohio State tried to pry Rumler loose when Drevno left, and tried again in February so there's little fear of him dropping out of that four-star status unless he has an awful senior year.

OG Jack Stewart

Service April 17 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 87, #616 Ovr, #56 OT 87, #538 Ovr, #47 OT 87, #543 Ovr, #46 OT
Rivals 5.4 (2*), NR 5.6, NR, #79 OT 5.6, NR, #79 OT
ESPN No rating No rating 79, NR, #43 OT, #43 East
Composite 0.8641, #1012 Ovr, #83 OT 0.8689, #621 Ovr, #60 OT 0.8689, #624 Ovr, #60 OT

Stewart is an offensive lineman from Connecticut so we'll know for certain if he exists when he arrives on campus. He didn't exist to ESPN until fairly recently, and Rivals bumped him from a 2-star to "I guess Michigan likes this guy" in the few weeks after he committed.

Or we may get something out of this fall, since his team were state champs last year and have four players returning who are committed to FBS programs, including Notre Dame quarterback commit Drew Pyne, a borderline top 100 player for 2020.

OT Trente Jones

Service Feb 21 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 88, #373 Ovr, #46 OT 88, #424 Ovr, #45 OT 88, #429 Ovr, #44 OT
Rivals 5.7, NR, #35 OT 5.7, NR, #35 OT 5.7, NR, #17 OT
ESPN 81, #203 Ovr, #19 OT, #108 SE 81, #203 Ovr, #19 OT, #108 SE 83, #157 Ovr, #16 OT, #83 SE
Composite 0.8967, #333 Ovr, #36 OT 0.9019, #293 Ovr, #32 OT 0.9019, #298 Ovr, #31 OT

A bump from ESPN and Rivals offset a slow drop behind non-OL targets who've moved up 247's board. That now leaves 247 a lone skeptic on Michigan's only true OT prospect. Jones performed well at a UA regional and was at Alabama's June 23 camp but that's all I can find from this summer to explain the recent slight bump.

DT Mazi Smith

Service June 24 (committed) Today
247Sports 91, #224 Ovr, #14 DT 91, #225 Ovr, #14 DT
Rivals 5.8, #160 Ovr, #9 DT 5.8, #160 Ovr, #9 DT
ESPN 86, #29 Ovr, #2 DT, #4 MW 86, #29 Ovr, #2 DT, #4 MW
Composite 0.9457, #122 Ovr, #7 DT 0.9456, #119 Ovr, #7 DT

No change.

DT/SDE Chris Hinton

Service Aug 5, 2017 (Committed) Feb 12 June 15 Today
247Sports &
Scout:
96, #14 Ovr, #2 SDE
Scout: 5*, #3 Ovr, #1 SDE
96, #13 Ovr, #2 SDE 96, #26 Ovr, #3 SDE 96, #36 Ovr, #3 SDE
Rivals 6.1, #3 Ovr, #1 SDE 6.1, #13 Ovr, #1 SDE 6.1, #18 Ovr, #2 SDE 6.1, #18 Ovr, #2 SDE
ESPN Not rated 83, #97 Ovr, #9 DT, #45 SE 84, #65 Ovr, #7 DT, #36 SE 86, #38 Ovr, #4 DT, #17 SE
Composite .9983 #9 Ovr, #1 SDE 0.9897, #15 Ovr, #1 SDE 0.9903, #22 Ovr, #2 SDE 0.9889, #22 Ovr, #2 SDE

Hinton is still hovering in five-star zone, though he's not the top-five prospect he was when he committed, a thing that was expected. ESPN has been slowly coming around on him after an eval last winter that capped him at role player at DT who should move to OL. They still rate him at DT, and that might be his eventual destination, but they're not complaining about it so much anymore.

WDE Stephen Herron

Service July 29, 2017 (Committed) Feb 12 June 15 Today
247Sports &
Scout
94, #34 Ovr, #4 WDE
4*, #41 Ovr, #5 WDE
94, #34 Ovr, #4 WDE 92, #140 Ovr, #9 WDE 92, #146 Ovr, #10 WDE
Rivals 4* 5.9, #43 Ovr, #3 WDE 5.9, #51 Ovr, #4 WDE 5.9, #56 Ovr, #4 WDE
ESPN Not rated 84, #82 Ovr, #11 DE, #40 SE 84, #84 Ovr, #10 DE, #46 SE 83, #137 Ovr, #14 DE, #76 SE
Composite .9801, #34 Ovr, #4 WDE 0.9803, #36 Ovr, #4 WDE 0.9589, #87 Ovr, #5 WDE 0.9581, #86 Ovr, #5 WDE

Herron was on the very edge of five stars when he committed, which a year and a half out from Signing Day that was unlikely to stick. He has dropped somewhat over the year-long course of his commitment, which included a period when it appeared he could fly for Stanford. The sites have settled into a Top 50 or Top 150 player, with 247 and ESPN putting him in position to wind up a solid 4-star while Rivals still has him a near Top 50 guy. His Opening performance was good enough to solidify that Top 150 ranking to 247, so I imagine that will stick unless he has a crazy senior year tape.

WDE David Ojabo

Service July 2 (Committed) Today
247Sports 87, #537 Ovr, #36 SDE 91, #193 Ovr, #16 SDE
Rivals 5.7, NR, #41 SDE 5.7, NR, #41 SDE
ESPN 80, NR, #37 DE, #32 East 80, #NR Ovr, #37 DE, #32 East
Composite 0.8784, #488 Ovr, #32 SDE 0.8961, #318 Ovr, #21 SDE

We were told Ojabo was going to fly up the 247 rankings after they saw his ability in a camp setting this summer and lo it came to pass. He's now a very solid 4-star and probably going to stick in the Top 247. It's only been 10 days since he committed so there's been no movement yet from Rivals and ESPN. There may not be since he's still a developmental prospect, but 247 at least has caught on that freak athletes turn into NFL defensive ends, and Ojabo is very much a Taco.

WDE Gabe Newburg

Service April 2 (Committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 85, #813 Ovr, #55 WDE 86, #810 Ovr, #58 WDE 86, #822 Ovr, #61 WDE
Rivals 5.6, NR, #53 WDE 5.6, NR, #53 WDE 5.6, NR, #54 WDE
ESPN Not rated Not rated 79, NR, #61 DE, #39 MW
Composite 0.8527, #798 Ovr, #53 WDE 0.8655, #685 Ovr, #53 WDE 0.8655, #689 Ovr, #55 WDE

Gabe Newburg's rating on ESPN just showed up recently, and it's higher than everybody else's—a 79 is a high 3-star, and they're ranking all DEs together so that position ranking is really twice as good as the same number on 247. They haven't posted an evaluation yet to go with it. Since everyone else has him a middling 3-star with not much else to go on, I'll just list some other guys ESPN/Lemming rated around Newburg among players in the Midwest: Glenn Steele (35th), Ron Acheson (37th), Eric Wilson (39th), Jon Jansen (41st), and Sam Sword (42nd).

MLB Charles Thomas

Service June 26, 2017 (committed) Feb 12 June 15 Today
247Sports &
Scout
90, #196 Ovr, #4 ILB
Not rated
90, #206 Ovr, #6 ILB 90, #274 Ovr, #12 ILB 90, #287 Ovr, #14 ILB
Rivals Not rated 5.6, NR, NR OLB 5.6, NR, #25 OLB 5.6, NR, #33 OLB
ESPN Not rated Not rated 80, #293 Ovr, #7 ILB, #150 SE 80, #293 Ovr, #7 ILB, #150 SE
Composite Not enough to rank 0.8954, #308 Ovr, #9 ILB 0.8860, #397 Ovr, #16 ILB 0.8860, #401 Ovr, #17 ILB

Charles Thomas was the first member of Michigan's 2019 class and has been rated remarkably consistently over that time, ranking him as a Top 300 four-star to everybody except Rivals, who still has him a kind of nondescript 3-star. He's playing at IMG, so there's plenty of game tape, but also plenty of more shiny things to look at, and I guess he's been committed to Michigan for so long that it's boring to scout him. Mike Farrel talked about him last October (watch the film) and compared him to Devin Bush Jr., who ended up a 5.8 and the 182nd player to Rivals, while hinting at a move up the rankings. But when those came out this spring Thomas was just a 5.6 and the 25th OLB. Now he's the 33rd. So he just keeps hanging on that 3*/4* border, unable to crack the composite because of the Rivals knock.

Viper(!) Joey Velazquez

Service June 15 Today
247Sports 87, #650 Ovr, #52 S 87, #661 Ovr, #53 S
Rivals 5.5, NR, NR S 5.5, NR, NR S
ESPN No rating 75, NR, #62 S, #103 MW
Composite 0.8532, #929 Ovr, #74 S 0.8532, #934 Ovr, #75 S

Until recently Velazquez was an Ohio State baseball commit so it's not fair to expect the sites to have detailed scouts yet. Of those who managed to scramble, 247 came out the highest, but only barely—that 87 is equivalent to an ESPN 77 or a Rivals 5.6, which isn't that much of a difference. You can tell by the rankings among safeties, which vary from #53 to "we haven't bothered to go that high yet." Lorenz really likes him for the Viper spot, though the scout on him right now is more Cam Gordon than Khaleke Hudson, albeit a Cam Gordon who doesn't waste a year at receiver, waste another year playing a deep middle third safety in a 3-3-5, and then disappears because his new coach is running a 4-3 under Cover 2. In other words, intriguing—Cam Gordon was fine at Spur in the back half of 2010 I'll remind you. I'm getting off topic though because the rankings say nothing except "this guy appears to play safety" and our scouting says "Don Brown loves these kinds of guys."

Viper/SS Quinten Johnson

Service July 3 (committed) Today
247Sports 88, #484 Ovr, #37 S 88, #489 Ovr, #38 S
Rivals 5.7, NR, #24 S 5.7, NR, #52 CB
ESPN 79, NR, #38 S 79, NR, #40 ATH, #45 East
Composite 0.8797, #469 Ovr, #37 S 0.8797, #478 Ovr, #39 S

We were waiting for our leading candidate for most underrated member of Michigan's 2018 class to get a big 247 ratings bump after they named him a "top sleeper prospect" after an impressive camp appearance. That did not occur, so we get to keep acting like it takes some kind of magic scouting fairy abilities to watch tape of this Peppers-like object and project him to do silly nickel safety things. It doesn't, but you're welcome to pretend along with us as the sites continue to rank him a high three-star with little chance of obtaining a 4th.

CB DJ Turner

Service June 25 (Committed) Today
247Sports 88, #450 Ovr, #41 CB 88, #456 Ovr, #42 CB
Rivals 5.7, NR, #52 CB 5.7, NR, #52 CB
ESPN 80, NR, #23 CB, #154 SE 80, NR, #23 CB, #154 SE
Composite 0.8817, #439 Ovr, #41 CB 0.8817, #443 Ovr, #42 CB

Again, no change. Since he was playing safety for North Gwinnett and not hitting camps I wasn't expecting those to move, but since his commitment DJ announced he's transferring to IMG Academy, so there ought to be plenty of opportunity for him to show what he can do at the position we project him to play at Michigan.

Finally, just so we have them in the future here are the ratings for…

The Distant Future: The Year 2020

Service Kalil Branham Andre Seldon Denver Warren
Committed June 19 Committed June 22 Committed July 2
247Sports 87, #325 Ovr, #36 WR 86, #355 Ovr, #25 CB 88, #284 Ovr, #21 DT
Rivals 5.7, NR, #57 WR 5.6, NR, #26 CB 5.8, #213 Ovr, #15 DT
ESPN Not rated Not rated Not rated
Composite 0.8739, #371 Ovr, #66 WR 0.8578, #452 Ovr, #32 CB 0.8974, #279 Ovr, #22 DT

Expect a lot of movement between now and when these guys sign.

Comments

Unfiltered Manball

July 13th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^

Thanks Seth- great analysis.

 

From an overall standpoint- do you see this as a top 10 unit with possibilities of top 5 with a few more hits- or does your info point to the class's ceiling at about top 10?

Also, the early signing period has to aid in recruiting sites evaluating team's recruiting classes- less recruits flipping to other schools as the year ends.

reddogrjw

July 13th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^

Eric All was updated

 

now 422 overall when you have Michigan as a team pulled up on 247 composite - when you click on his name it is the old rating

Farnn

July 13th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

He's actually higher than that I believe.  His rating is bumped up to a 90 and he's the #13 TE now, which would likely have him around 250-300.  They did the top 247 updates yesterday but rankings outside of that should be updated today I think.  Unfortunately for Seth, this post may be outdated within a few hours because of the movement outside of the top 247.

 

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool&Position=TE

rc15

July 13th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^

Can anyone explain Eric Gray's changes? Grade went down slightly on 247, but ranking went up. Which means a ton of other people in front of him got downgraded...?

But then even though Rivals and ESPN didn't change, his Composite rating went up, even with the 247 rating downgrade... But then his overall Composite ranking went down significantly. That seems like 3 or 4 different backassward conflicting changes.

LabattsBleu

July 15th, 2018 at 9:09 PM ^

isn't it just as likely that some of Michigan's under the radar recruits jump up, since they will also get scouted more?

not sure what the caveat is point #1 when the likelihood of a bump up is just as likely as a bump down, especially since these kids are supposedly under scouted, leading to their current rankings... a guy like Ojabo for example has made a jump up... i would expect the drops would be evened out by the risers...