THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

It's those guys again, just a little down the road and with a championship locked up this time.

The stakes for the Spartans remain high. They're the last at-large in the Bracket Matrix field, which hasn't yet been updated for them getting whooped yesterday. Bart Torvik's updated projections also have them as the last team to make it, though that means only a 22.3% chance of securing an at-large bid. They need a win on Sunday or they'll need to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament to not be sweating out every one-bid conference's tournament.

Speaking of the BTT, Michigan is obviously locked into the one-seed, which means they're keeping an eye on Thursday's 8/9 matchup. MSU is currently projected as the nine-seed and would stay there with a win and/or an Indiana loss to Purdue on Saturday afternoon. If MSU loses and Indiana wins, however, the Hoosiers would jump the Spartans and knock them down to the ten-seed.

Meanwhile, Rutgers is the most likely other team in the 8/9 game. They're locked into that matchup outside of a few scenarios involving them beating Minnesota and Maryland losing to Penn State. Maryland is the other possible eight-seed.

THE US

Seth's graphic, updated for banner [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No other changes. We're awaiting official coach of the year awards before crowning certain, uh, coaches.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

No changes other than the record. Yes, Tom Izzo started Malik Hall over Gabe Brown last night, but Brown tallied 17 more minutes, and I imagine the Spartans will be inclined to change things up. Any of AJ Hoggard (over Rocket Watts), Marcus Bingham (over Julius Marble), or Joey Hauser (over Marble or Hall/Brown) could start without much surprise; I'd include Thomas Kithier in that group if Hunter Dickinson hadn't just given him an atomic wedgie and stolen his lunch money.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Back-to-back games against the same opponent mean I get to link you to Brian's preview from literally yesterday. Some additional notes:

• Leaders in playing time for MSU last night: Josh Langford (33 minutes), Aaron Henry (31), Gabe Brown (27), Rocket Watts (22), Joey Hauser (20), then three players (Julius Marble, AJ Hoggard, and Marcus Bingham) tied at 14 and Malik Hall at ten. Your guess at the rotation is as good as mine and possibly Tom Izzo's.
• Thomas Kithier's two minutes went so poorly that I can't imagine he sees the floor unless Hunter Dickinson has been forcefully removed from the premises.
• A certain message board has certain posters clamoring for Jack Hoiberg to play more, in case you're wondering how the point guard position is working out.

Of course, this season has shown us that consecutive games against the same opponent can have wildly divergent outcomes. Colgate gave us the canonical example in January:

MSU does have some strategic changes they can make in addition to the likely rotation tweaks. Michigan's pick-and-roll attack demolished State's drop coverage scheme last night:

From a schematic perspective, Michigan absolutely abused Izzo’s drop coverage approach.

17pts on these 7 possessions.

I’d be shocked if Izzo opts for drop-coverage exclusively on Sunday. Particularly coupled with their guards/wings going under Ballscreens. pic.twitter.com/knJ2RJdR63

— LAbound (@LAbound2) March 5, 2021

Izzo isn't likely to ask his defenders to switch because the team isn't built for that, particularly against Michigan, but we could see more hedging to attempt to force some turnovers or at least an extra pass before the ball gets into the post. As for MSU's offense, well, if you have any workable ideas, you should be a coach.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Well, yeah, those wouldn't have improved.

THE KEYS

less of this, maybe? [Campredon]

Adjust as necessary. Whether it's MSU sending more double-teams to try to induce (even) more Dickinson turnovers, changing their pick-and-roll coverage, or... whatever they come up with on offense, there's going to be something different about the way this game plays out. Juwan Howard has been the tactical match of his counterpart in all but a game or two this season. It's hard to see a day of film review and a practice fundamentally changing how these two squads match up.

Pack the paint. If one had to nitpick after the blowout in Crisler, they'd point to the team playing too tight on subpar shooters in the first half, which opened up some drives and backdoor cuts that were pretty much MSU's only easy points. Gabe Brown is the only guy who requires that treatment and he rarely attacks off the dribble. If anyone else wants to pull up for a long jumper, that's a win. 

Ditch the zone. I normally like Michigan's matchup zone as a changeup but Izzo saw something in the way it's run that allowed MSU to repeatedly get Aaron Henry matched up on Mike Smith down low. That was the other way State scored without great effort. As we saw on pretty much all the other possessions, when Michigan plays man, the Spartans have a really difficult path to points. Their best scorer is going against either Franz Wagner or Isaiah Livers most of the time. That's working.

Crush them. End the streak. Emphatically.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 11.