Hoops Preview: Northwestern 2018

Hoops Preview: Northwestern 2018 Comment Count

Brian December 4th, 2018 at 3:08 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #5 Michigan (8-0) vs
#46 Northwestern(6-2)
WHERE Welsh-Ryan Arena
Evanston, IL
WHEN 9 PM
LINE Michigan –6 (Kenpom)
TV BTN

THE US

This is going very well!

Michigan is undefeated and if they can brave the new Welsh-Ryan there's a very good chance they get through the year unscathed. They've unleashed beatdowns on every opponent so far, but Northwestern provides a couple of potential roadblocks.

One: it's a road game. All basketball teams have weird road games where they shoot horribly and the refereeing seems absurdly tilted. Two: last year Northwestern bottled up Michigan's offense in two ugly  games by playing a lot of zone, and pretty much the last "oh no what if" left in this season is "what if they play a good zone D." As you'll see, the Wildcats have the length to make their zone annoying indeed.

At some point Michigan is going to look mortal, and this is a good candidate. Hopefully their defense carries them through even if that's the case. The alternative is more red flowers down below us.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 11 Anthony Gaines So. 6'4, 200 58 15 93 Yes
Never shoots, for good reason. 43/27 last year and worse this year. TO rate of 28 is awful. Blocks a lot of shots for a 6'4" guard though?
G 14 Ryan Taylor Sr. 6'6, 195 79 20 112 No
Evansville grad transfer. Finding life in a major conference much more difficult but still a low-TO guy and shooting is shooting. Early scuffles (31% from three) probably a mirage, must check.
F 21 AJ Turner Jr. 6'7, 188 80 19 99 Maybe?
BC transfer. Decent numbers as a low-usage guy there two years ago; currently getting to the line a ton at 88% and missing all his threes.
F 4 Vic Law Sr. 6'7 200 78 26 117 No
Stretch four with low-ish TO rate shooting 48/45 is most Beilein player on NW roster.
C 5 Dererk Pardon So. 6'8, 250 77 22 125 Yes
I just learned that dude has an extraneous R in his name. WTF! Crushing it so far with top 20 OREB rate, 66% from floor with 22 usage early. Both are big steps forward.
C 22 Pete Nance Fr. 6'10 210 33 18 93 Maybe
Erstwhile M recruit chose poorly. Miniscule rebounding numbers on both ends, shooting too early to tell. Beanpole.
C 25 Barret Benson Jr. 6'10", 240 23 16 109 Yes
Just another backup C. JABC? JABC.
G 2 Ryan Greer Fr. 6'2, 185 21 18 65 Yes
Composite #341 is closest thing to PG on roster. Miserable in all facets so far after reclassifying to 2018.
F 23 Miller Kopp Fr. 6'7, 210 33 25 94 No
Composite #116 FR off to good start from three but miserable inside line, lot of TOs.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Villanova, National Championship

Hoops Preview: Villanova, National Championship Comment Count

Brian April 2nd, 2018 at 11:55 AM

SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is sponsoring our tourney coverage. If you need a home loan, you should probably get it from a guy whose Ted Valentine impression is just as thunderously sarcastic as yours. Matt will get you a good loan, fast. And call you for a charge while doing it. Unless it is actually a block.


1985_villanova_logo.0THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #7 Michigan (33-7) vs
#1 Villanova (35-4)
WHERE Alamodome
San Antonio, TX
WHEN 9:20 PM
LINE Villanova –6 (KenPom)
TV TBS

chance they use the same dang wildcat growl everyone else does: 82%.

THE US

It's all about the window. Over the course of the season, Villanova has proven themselves to be the best team in the country by a considerable distance. Over the course of the tournament, same thing. Michigan's been in some dogfights and hasn't beaten a seed higher than #6 Houston; the closest anyone's come to Villanova is 12 points and they ended their semifinal against Kansas in the first four minutes.

But if you push the window back, things get interesting. And I'm not talking about cherry-picking Michigan's win streak. Here's a Torvik slice since January 1st, when Zavier Simpson came off the bench to play 32 minutes against Iowa and established himself the starting point guard, against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams*:

image

That's half the season—far more than half of the quality opponents—during which Villanova is a point or two better over the course of a 60-possession game. Not Vegas's 7 point gap, not Kenpom's 31% chance at winning, but damn near dead even. Big Ten Tournament Michigan—the Michigan that scored 1.1 and 1.2 PPP against the #10 and #31 defenses in the country, respectively—is a titan ready to go toe to toe with even Villanova and their holy grail offense.

Oops Sorry About Your Windshield I Don't Even Know How That Ball Got Out Of An Arena Michigan… not so much. The shooting that's barely gotten Michigan through four of five tourney games isn't going to cut it. For the love of everything good and holy, make some damn shots. Have a Stauskas seance. Whatever it takes.

*[FWIW: this skips the Northwestern L for Michigan by limiting it to Quad 2; it also skips Villanova's loss to Butler, which happened on 12/30. Since Villanova isn't going to run a zone, call it even?]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 1 Jalen Brunson Jr. 6'2, 190 78* 26 129 No
KPOY #2 shoots 61/41 on big usage, has better than 2:1 A:TO.
G 10 Donte DiVincenzo Sr. 6'5, 205 63 22 119 No
Dual-threat SG is 57/39 w 20 A rate, technically bench player.
F 25 Mikal Bridges Jr. 6'7, 210 70 22 130 God no
KPOY #6 is future lottery pick. 59/44, not much in the way of assists.
F 4 Eric Paschall Jr. 6'7 250 75 18 123 No
Started 1/27 from 3, 48% since. Also shooting 64% and adding OREBs.
F 25 Omari Spellman Fr. 6'8, 255 67 18 121 God no
Stretch 5 hitting 51/44; solid 6% block rate, top 100 DREB guy.
G 21 Phil Booth Jr. 6'3, 195 61 18 119 No
Oh look it's another inside-outside threat hitting nearly 40% from 3.
G 2 Collin Gillespie Fr. 6'2", 185 28 13 125 No
Just A Shooter hitting 39%.
C 2 Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree Fr. 6'8, 195 31 12 132 Yes!
Rudy! Theo! Roy!

*[last five games minutes from Kenpom.]

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Preview: Montana, NCAA Tournament

Preview: Montana, NCAA Tournament Comment Count

Brian March 15th, 2018 at 5:25 PM

Post bumped back to the top for obvious reasons.

SPONSOR NOTE FEATURING FREE BEER. HomeSure Lending is once again sponsoring our NCAA Tournament coverage this year. Matt will be hosting an informal watch party tonight at HOMES Brewery, and buying the first round for any MGoBlog readers who come. If you're looking at buying a house this spring/summer you should talk to him soon.

ICYMI. Part one of the pre-tourney mailbag addressing what constitutes success, the sixth man factor, the possibility of a two-big lineup, and late game free-throw lineups can be found right here. Part two, on M's most important player, Z's lockdown sustainability, splitting defensive credit, and managing the tourney rotation is here. Today's Basketbullets on Teske's offensive breakthrough, Matthews taking a new role, Poole's passing, and the women's team's tourney run is here.

ngznditpjoetglvcbkloTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #10 Michigan (28-7) vs
#71 Montana (26-7)
WHERE HoegLaw Arena
Wichita, KS
WHEN 9:50 PM Thursday
LINE Michigan –8 (KenPom)
TV TBS

rad motorcycle, not at all grizzly-shaped bear

THE US

Here it is: the tourney. Now is a good time to remember that in addition to improving a lot at the end of the season, Beilein teams also have a tendency to baffle opponents that aren't familiar with his system. This goes double when they're forced to do so on a short turnaround. Now is the time of exceeding expectations, except for that one time they didn't.

Now Michigan tries to not repeat that. They should manage to.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country..

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 14 Ahmaad Rorie Jr. 6'1, 175 88 24 112 Eh
Average all around, high-ish usage. 48/34 split, unassisted 3 shooter, superior FT%
G 0 Michael Oguine Jr. 6'2, 171 79 23 122 Eh
Rim-or-3 guy w MAAR-level TO rate despite a ton of unassisted attempts at rim.
F 24 Bobby Moorehead Jr. 6'7, 182 78 12 103 Eh
Just a shooter hitting 35%. TO rate way too high for a JAS.
F 20 Fabijan Krslovic Sr. 6'8, 239 62 16 112 Very
Old school PF hits two, gets to line, OREBs against Big Sky comp.
C 15 Jamar Akoh Jr. 6'8, 253 65 25 112 Very
Huge FT rate, mostly a dunk-on-dish guy. Black hole if he posts.
G 1 Timmy Falls Fr. 6'2, 171 41 16 103 No
FR is 44% from three, 42% from two, and has huge TO rate.
F 4 Sayeed Pridgett So. 6'5", 195 56 22 95 Very
48% 2PT shooter with a 20+ TO rate.
C 5 Karl Nicholas Fr. 6'8, 212 21 22 96 Very
Only plays in big blowouts or when foul trouble is dire.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Purdue, Big Ten Championship Game

Hoops Preview: Purdue, Big Ten Championship Game Comment Count

Ace March 4th, 2018 at 11:39 AM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #9 Michigan (27-7, 13-5)
at #5 Purdue (28-5, 15-3)
WHERE Madison Square Garden
New Yooooooooork, NY
WHEN 4:30 pm ET
LINE Purdue -3 (KenPom)
Purdue -3.4 (Torvik)
Purdue -3.5 (Vegas)
TV CBS

ayyyyyyyy got me a slice why you lookin over heah

THE US

Michigan is all the way up to #9(!) on KenPom with the #6(!!!) defense in the country, which is three spots ahead of the Michigan State defense(!!!!!) they so delightfully dispatched yesterday. If you'd like to enjoy some of the GIFs a bit early, I've been uploading them to the gfycat page.

Most brackets are lagging behind the action a bit because it's a week early for breathlessly frequent updates; while the Bracket Matrix has Michigan as a five-seed, that's including several brackets that have them as a seven-, eight-, or even a nine-seed in one case. That's not happening no matter how much the committee hates this year's Big Ten. Yesterday's win probably locked up a four-seed; Torvik's forecast has Michigan as the third three-seed (one spot in front of MSU) and they don't drop off the three-line if you project a loss to Purdue. A projected win gets them to a two-seed(!!!!!!!!!!) in Torvik's forecast, though I'm guessing the committee's (justified) skepticism of the B1G this year would prevent that. Either way, Michigan may very well be playing for a spot in Detroit the first weekend of the tournament.

Oh, and a banner. They're playing for another banner. Banners are good. I like banners. You like banners. Let's get a banner.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 11 PJ Thompson Sr. 5'10, 185 69 12 127 Not At All
Very efficient, low-usage PG. Hitting 44% of threes. Strong defender.
G 3 Carsen Edwards So. 6'0, 190 73 29 119 Not At All
Best guard in the B1G this year. Efficient volume scorer/shot creator.
G 31 Dakota Mathias Sr. 6'4, 200 78 18 129 Not At All
Three-point sniper, good passer, and excellent defender.
F 12 Vincent Edwards Sr. 6'8, 225 74 24 119 Not At All
Does a bit of everything on offense, good defender.
C 44 Isaac Haas Sr. 7'2, 290 59 27 121 Very
Behemoth. Strong post scorer, rebounder, shot-blocker.
C 32 Matt Haarms Fr. 7'3, 250 41 16 110 Very
Low-usage Haas, basically. Huge block rate but sometimes gambles too much.
G 14 Ryan Cline Jr. 6'5, 190 43 13 117 Not At All
Just A Shooter™, makes 40% of his threes.
G 20 Nojel Eastern Fr. 6'6, 220 31 19 92 Yes
Big combo guard at best around hoop. Hits the glass. Turnover-prone.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Michigan State, Big Ten Semifinal

Hoops Preview: Michigan State, Big Ten Semifinal Comment Count

Ace March 3rd, 2018 at 10:46 AM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #15 Michigan (26-7, 13-5)
vs #6 MSU (29-3, 16-2)
WHERE Madison Square Garden
The City So Ni--
damn you rapaport
WHEN 2 pm ET, Saturday
LINE MSU -4 (KenPom)
MSU -3.4 (Torvik)
MSU -3.5 (Vegas)
TV CBS

the name's Ad-Rock and I'm here to say / we love pizza and saying ayyyyyyyy (RIP MCA)

THE US

Rivalry/banner aspects aside, Michigan is probably playing with house money at the moment. They're up to a five-seed in the latest update of the Bracket Matrix even though a handful of brackets inexplicably list them as an eight-seed (or even as low as a nine!). Torvik's teamcast has M as the top five-seed. A neutral-court loss to State in their third game in three days shouldn't knock them from that line unless the committee is up to some weird stuff again. (Admittedly, that is far from out of the question.)

A victory would put the Wolverines in serious contention for a four-seed. It'd also lock up a season sweep of MSU despite not playing them at Crisler during one of the Spartans' better seasons. It'd also give Michigan a chance to add yet another banner in the Beilein era. These are all good things. I'd like to see them.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min* %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 5 Cassius Winston So. 6'0, 185 74 23 130 Not At All
3rd nationally in assist rate, 2nd in 3-point shooting. Turnover-prone, poor on-ball D.
G 1 Josh Langford So. 6'5, 210 64 21 109 No
Solid shooter who likes the midrange, works mostly off the ball.
F 22 Miles Bridges So. 6'7, 230 74 25 117 No
Powerful, skilled all-around force.
F 2 Jaren Jackson Jr. Fr. 6'11, 242 49 23 118 Not At All
Unicorn. Great shot-blocker/rebounder, hits threes, huge dunks. Foul-prone.
C 44 Nick Ward So. 6'8, 250 42 29 119 Very
Tremendous post scorer. Great rebounder and shot-blocker. Drives Izzo nuts.
G 20 Matt McQuaid Jr. 6'4, 200 59 14 123 Not At All
Just A Shooter™ type making 40% of threes.
F 25 Kenny Goins Jr. 6'6, 230 47 11 119 Very
Hustle guy, not sure why he ever plays over Xavier Tillman or JJJ at C.
G 11 Tum Tum Nairn Sr. 5'10, 175 30 10 113 Yes
Out there for defense/leadership. All but ignored on offense.

*last five games

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Maryland Part Two

Hoops Preview: Maryland Part Two Comment Count

Brian February 23rd, 2018 at 3:15 PM

thumbTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #19 Michigan (23-7) vs
#35 Maryland (19-11)
WHERE Homesure Lending Arena
College Park, MD
WHEN Noon, Saturday
LINE Maryland -1 (KenPom)
TV ESPN

It should really be a withdrawhead.

THE US

With two wins against solid teams in their last two outings, bracket opinion on Michigan has shifted towards consensus. That consensus: the six line. Palm has come up; Lunardi has come down. The Matrix agrees. Maryland, currently 58th in RPI, is in fact an opportunity for a Q1 win and might move the needle more than you might expect; coupled with an couple wins in the Big Ten tournament a 5 is probably within reach. Lose and Michigan will be trying to stay off the 7 line.

As far as the team goes, offensive burdens continue to shift to Duncan Robinson and Jordan Poole and away from Charles Matthews, because the former two guys are hitting shots and Matthews has more turnovers than baskets in most games. Mathews is still a far superior defender and must be given a shot to stop doing... that, but Michigan doesn't have a lot of margin for error in a game Kenpom thinks they're a slight dog in.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 10 Anthony Cowan So. 6'0, 170 98* 23 113 No
Steph-mold shooter has had efficiency drop since last game. 46/37 but gets to line a ton at 84%. TOs an issue.
G 33 Dion Wiley Jr. 6'4, 210 73 13 110 No
Just A Shooter hitting 40%.
G 23 Darryl Morsell Fr. 6'4, 205 86 21 97 Very
Burlyguard drives a bunch; no threes, lot of TOs, 46% from two.
F 11 Kevin Huerter So. 6'7, 190 86 21 118 No
61/43 shooter has eFG nearing the top 50, frequent assists but 21 TO rate.
C 24 Bruno Fernando Fr. 6'10, 245 66 23 110 Very
Muscled-up FR post solid scorer who generates fair chunk of his shots, poor TO rate.
C 4 Michal Cekovsky Sr. 7'1, 250 28 18 116 Very
Fernando far superior DREB guy, otherwise quite similar statistically.
F 5 Jared Nickens Sr. 6'7, 205 42 14 113 No
Just A Shooter hitting 40%.
F 3 Joshua Tomaic So. 6'9", 220 7 21 72 No
Near invisible but shooting well on his < 1 attempt per game. 
C 44 Sean Obi Sr. 6'9, 250 7 14 114 Very
In the gray at Kenpom so not enough data to say much.

*[All minutes taken from the last five games since MD has had a couple of major injuries and has shifted a bunch of minutes around as the season has progressed.]

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Penn State

Hoops Preview: Penn State Comment Count

Brian February 21st, 2018 at 1:00 PM

QFWIsOu2_400x400THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #23 Michigan (22-7) vs
#25 Penn State (19-10)
WHERE Bryce Jordan Arena
State College, PA 
WHEN 7 PM
LINE PSU -3 (KenPom)
TV BTN

Jon Crispin and a microphone is the worst Penn State combination since [REDACTED -ed]

THE US

This is the second of Michigan's three QUADRANT ONE(!) opportunities to close the regular season; winning the first one of those was enough to move Michigan up to a six seed on the previously skeptical Bracket Matrix. This one might not draw that kind of attention because PSU is struggling to get into the tourney instead of competing for a Sweet 16 seed like OSU was, but it's considerably tougher per Vegas and ranking systems. Penn State has been on a tear that has moved them into a virtual tie with Michigan on Kenpom. Since it's a road game this equates to a 38% shot at victory.

For Michigan to do that they'll have to have one of those games where they shoot well from the perimeter. Scuffling, like they've done too frequently this year, means they'll have to lock down a very hot offense. But they could do that. The matchups here are weird, what with PSU's 6'5" lead dog and Michigan's stretch five.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 10 Tony Carr So. 6'5, 204 79 29 113 Nope
Massive usage unassisted 3 shooter hits 46% from deep. Efficiency drops off cliff inside line. Excellent A:TO.
G 33 Shep Garner Sr. 6'2, 196 77 15 115 No
Extreme Just A Shooter hitting 42% from deep. Averaging barely 1 2PA/G.
G 23 Josh Reaves Jr. 6'4, 210 61 18 127 No
Super-efficient combo shooting 61/39 and has solid A:TO. 13th in steal%.
F 11 Lamar Stevens So. 6'8, 226 81 25 103 Yes
Stretch-ish 4 creates most of his shots but hitting 51/29 for meh ORTG.
C 24 Mike Watkins So. 6'9, 270 50 20 119 Very
Clobbering C shooting 70% from floor, 6th in DREBs, 33rd in block rate.
G 4 Nazeer Bostic So. 6'4, 203 43 17 97 Yes
Ton of TOs and iffy shooting. ORTG propped up by high FT rate and conversions (77%).
G 5 Jamari Wheeler Fr. 6'1, 170 40 15 86 Yes
PG-sized dude hitting 44/15 and just 39% from line. More TOs than A.
C 3 Satchel Pierce Jr. 7'0, 255 13 21 72 Yes
Large man has great OREB rate and is terrible at all else.
C 44 Julian Moore Sr. 6'10, 248 24 10 107 Yes
Large man tries to OREB and stays out of the way otherwise. Blocks some shots.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Ohio State Part Two

Hoops Preview: Ohio State Part Two Comment Count

Brian February 17th, 2018 at 2:32 PM

imageTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #27 Michigan (21-7) vs
#16 OSU (22-6)
WHERE Crisler Arena
Ann Arbor, MI          
WHEN 1 PM Sunday
LINE Michigan –1 (KenPom)
TV CBS

obligatory

THE US

It's seeding crunch time for Michigan, and here is a massive opportunity: a QUADRANT ONE GAME at home that they're actually favored in, albeit narrowly. This is the first of three Q1 opportunities Michigan has to close out the season and its most manageable, because of college basketball's home/road refereeing split.

As far as the team goes, your top story is Duncan Robinson May Have Made A Deal With The Devil And We're Fine With That. After a senior year spent mostly scuffling, Robinson is 10/15 from three in his last two games, and paired that with excellent defense against Iowa's Tyler Cook. A version of Michigan that has a 42% from three Duncan Robinson is a much more threatening one.

And if Charles Matthews could get off the mat at the same time... I mean, probably not. But maybe!

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 3 CJ Jackson Jr. 6'1, 175 75 23 109 No
Plus usage shot generator; all threes assisted but very few twos. 2PJ main weakness. Good not great A:TO.
G 15 Kam Williams Sr. 6'2, 185 58 15 107 No
Just A Shooter, though about half of those are inside the arc. Just 11% of his shots at rim. Very good shooter though.
F 33 Keita Bates-Diop Jr. 6'7, 235 80 27 118 No
kPOY candidate is very efficient at all three levels w/ big usage. DREB vacuum. Post-like block rate, low TOs.
F 1 Jae'Sean Tate Sr. 6'8, 215 73 23 108 Very
Junkyard dog gets to rim for almost two thirds of his shots. Not an OREB threat this year.
C 34 Kaleb Wesson Fr. 6'9, 270 50 24 126 Very
Insanely good TO rate for post, gets to line, converts, frequently in foul trouble. OREB beast.
F 24 Andre Wesson So. 6'6, 220 44 13 84 Yes
32% TO rate and takes most of his shots from three, where he's hitting 28%.
G 13 Andrew Dakich Sr. 6'2, 190 45 11 116 No
You probably remember him. This year he's getting open threes and hitting them. Really high TO rate.
F 2 Musa Jallow So. 6'5, 200 39 13 89 Yes
SF and thing Jar-Jar Binks says hitting 28% from three, where most of his shots are, and turning it over.
C 0 Micah Potter So. 6'9, 240 23 21 119 Yes
Poor man's Wesson has similarly insane TO rate, hits FTs, efficient scorer. FT rate not as good.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Northwestern, Part 2

Hoops Preview: Northwestern, Part 2 Comment Count

Brian February 6th, 2018 at 12:12 PM

imageTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #24 Michigan (19-6) vs
#76 Northwestern (14-10)
WHERE Rosemont Horizon
Rosemont, IL     
WHEN 7 PM EST
LINE Michigan –1 (KenPom)
Michigan –1.5 (Vegas)
TV BTN

THE GREATEST BLOG IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD

THE US

Here is the power of home and away in college basketball: Michigan entered their most recent game against #91 Minnesota with an 80%+ win probability in Kenpom, which translated to a projected 11 point edge. (It did not quite work out that way.) Playing virtually the same quality team on the road, Michigan is favored by one. Also: at Crisler Michigan trailed this Northwestern team 14-5 halfway through the first half and Kenpom still had Michigan a 53% favorite.

Because of this huge swing in game outcomes based on little more that referee whims, Michigan's finishing stretch is coin flip central. Michigan has a win probability between 43 and 60% in five of their six remaining games, with a home game against Iowa (84%) the lone exception.

This Northwestern game is a 55% shot per Kenpom, though there are there are a couple complicating factors. Northwestern's temporary tenancy in Rosemont, Illinois, has resulted in a home court advantage in the bottom third of DI, far worse than Crisler's middling results. On the other hand, Michigan is arriving in Chicago today since their flight was snowed out last night. Hopefully they bring their practice jerseys.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 30 Bryant McIntosh Sr. 6'3, 200 78 25 98 Kinda
NW main and only shot creator enjoying his 8th season of Big Ten play. 41/30 splits, gets stuck with bad late clock stuff.
G 20 Scottie Lindsey Sr. 6'5, 210 76 24 101 Kinda
Other main "oh god someone shoot" guy. 45/31 on ton of volume. Does not get to line.
F 4 Vic Law Jr. 6'7, 200 72 21 112 No
39% from three; does go inside somewhat frequently. DREB vacuum.
F 44 Gavin Skelly Sr. 6'8, 235 54 17 103 No
Stretch-ish 4 will offer help rim protection and hit about 1 three a game; lot of TOs in his usage.
C 5 Dererk Pardon Jr. 6'8, 235 74 19 119 Very
Burly rim specialist will block shots, OREB, and finish.
G 11 Anthony Gaines Fr. 6'4, 205 39 15 95 Yes
Low usage FR gets to the line semi-frequently and has no other statistical strengths.
G 23 Jordan Ash Jr. 6'3, 200 31 11 98 Not Really
Invisible reserve G getting 15 minutes a game and occasionally flirting with trillions.
F 35 Aaron Falzon So. 6'8, 225 31 19 114 Not At All
Just A Shooter hitting 40%.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments

Hoops Preview: Minnesota

Hoops Preview: Minnesota Comment Count

Brian February 2nd, 2018 at 3:00 PM

32900634261_7bb2b248d9_zTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #23 Michigan (18-6) vs
#91 Minnesota (14-10)
WHERE Crisler Arena
Ann Arbor, MI            
WHEN 2:30 PM EST
LINE Michigan –11 (KenPom)
TV FOX

Goldy wears weird shoes if you think about it

THE US

The sigh you hear coming from Crisler is Michigan hitting the ergonomic bathtubs and vaporous rubs during an incredible five-day break during this stupidly shortened conference season. This is Michigan's largest gap between games all year, and a welcome respite. Hopefully that means a game less ugly than many we've been treated to of late.

Minnesota should be of some aid here since they bring the nation's #129 defense. Michigan should have open shots and the ability to run their offense against a team that plays little to no zone defense; hopefully that should mean more threes go down for one Duncan Robinson. Also other people.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 5 Nate Mason Sr. 6'2, 190 77 23 114 No
Main engine of offense can drive against anyone but is awful inside the arc (39%). Great A:TO ratio, 40% 3s.
G 13 Jamir Harris Fr. 6'2, 190 52* 15 105 No
Just A Shooter hitting 38% from 3.
G 1 Dupree McBrayer Jr. 6'5, 195 62 18 105 No
Low-ish usage, decent all around game and 36% from three. Another sub-40 guy from two shooting <30 on 2PT Js.
F 3 Jordan Murphy Jr. 6'6, 250 77 28 111 Yes
Burly board monster w top 15 OREB rate nationally. 83% at rim, almost half his shots there. Not a shooter.
C 21 Bakary Konate Sr. 6'11, 240 43* 10 92 Very
Tall man swats some shots and comically fumbles ball out of bounds if it ever gets to him.
F 15 Amir Coffey So. 6'8, 225 49 18 113 No
Stretch four w/ injury issues. Solid all-around player, good passer, lateral agility in question w/ injury.
G 11 Isaiah Washington Fr. 6'1, 190 43 27 87 Very
FR PG has solid A:TO ratio... and ranks 162nd in shot% nationally despite 39/19 shooting. Deranged fun!
F 20 Davonte Fitzgerald Sr. 6'8, 220 30 15 100 Yes
Just a guy.

*[Konate and Harris's numbers from the past five games, per Kenpom. More accurate than season numbers around 30%.]

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Comments