THE ESSENTIALS

OVERVIEW

Northwestern lost at Iowa on Tuesday and Maryland upset Wisconsin on Monday, so Michigan stands alone atop the Big Ten standings at 2-0. There are currently six B1G teams with only one conference loss; maintaining a game of separation against a beatable opponent on the road would be real, real nice. Of course, that beatable opponent, as previously noted, is coming off a road upset against a top-five team. The Big Ten!

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

the faq for these

Austin Davis remains out. In the two games Davis has missed, Hunter Dickinson played 28 and 33 minutes, respectively, despite picking up four fouls in the former outing. I haven't had an opening to explore this more in a Basketbullets segment (coming soon, most likely) but Michigan has fared well with Brandon Johns at center—when Juwan Howard isn't pairing him with Terrance Williams. That trend was very noticeable against Nebraska, so hopefully Howard adjusts.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

This preview was going to be a lot more straightforward before Maryland climbed out of an eight-point hole to pull off one of the biggest surprises of the Big Ten season thus far at the Kohl Center on Monday. Prior to beating Wisconsin, the Terrapins had lost all three matchups against quality competition—Clemson, Rutgers, and Purdue—and only stayed close in their game against the Boilermakers.

Last season's conference champs still dearly miss point guard Anthony Cowan and center Jalen "Sticks" Smith. The departure of their two stars has led to a strange, Nebraska-like rotation in terms of size: their top seven players all stand between 6'5 and 6'9. They're basically playing four wings and an undersized big most of the time (or three wings and two undersized bigs, depending upon how you want to categorize 6'7/230 stretch four Donta Scott).

There isn't really a point guard; instead three starters have assist rates between 16% and 20% while doing a decent-to-good job taking care of the ball. The first such player is junior Eric Ayala, who's bounced back to be the team's leading scorer after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He's taken over as the team's top pick-and-roll threat and scored with great efficiency in those scenarios; his passing is still coming along but it looks like his assist numbers have been hurt by poor spot-up shooting off his passes, which is probably just bad luck. While he's not a three-level scorer, he does a good job of cutting the most inefficient level out of his shot selection:

He's doing most of his damage through the heart of the court, so hopefully Dickinson's presence at the rim will turn Ayala into a more limited pull-up shooter. He had 17 points on 13 shooting possessions against Wisconsin, so that's easier said than done.

Fellow junior wing Aaron Wiggins boasts the team's highest usage but his offense is largely derivative, coming either on the fast break (where he's been good) or on spot-up opportunities (where he's been bad). He has been the team's #2 pick-and-roll option after Ayala but there's a significant difference in ability between the two at shot-creating; Wiggins isn't producing as effectively for himself or his teammates. Wiggins shot 40% on 130 threes as a freshman but has connected on only 31% of his 202 attempts from beyond the arc since. He's a solid wing defender, at least.

The third starter getting over 20% usage is defensive ace Darryl Morsell, whose 2P%/3P%/FT% splits of 46/25/52 fall relatively in line with his career numbers—he's not a guy you want to lean on to score. He's getting up a decent number of shots because Maryland doesn't have a ton of options and they need Morsell out there for his multi-positional, disruptive defense. In contrast to to the rest of his career, however, he's tallying assists without an elevated turnover rate to go with them.

While sophomore power forward Donta Scott doesn't get as many touches as the three players mentioned above, he's the team's #2 scorer because of his excellent touch. His shooting splits are 71/52/83(!!!) so far this season and his efficiency hasn't dipped much against quality competition. He's also shut down opposing post-ups, though he's susceptible to getting taken off the dribble by quicker wings. He leads the team in rebounding but isn't much of a shot-blocking presence.

The center position is a true platoon situation. 6'9/235 senior and Alabama transfer Galin Smith—so close but he's really gone, guys—has started seven of nine games but only plays 38% of the team's minutes. He's been a good post scorer and roll man but his poor defense and lack of defensive rebounding really limits him. The center getting the most minutes has been 6'8/235 junior Boston College transfer Jarius Hamilton, who's making 42% of his threes (well over his career 31% mark) but has had trouble finishing inside or defending against quality competition, and like Smith he's shockingly absent on the defensive boards for a big man. He's also been foul-prone. When Dickinson is matched up against either of these guys, he needs to get the ball.

The other center provides a very different look: 7'2/235 sophomore Chol Mariol plays like a baby deer on offense but gets a lot of offensive rebounds and is the only center who blocks shots and defends his position. He's played under five minutes in each of their three games against top-20 competition, however, and those teams had some size. It doesn't look like he's earned Mark Turgeon's trust and it's understandable when you see how much he needs to develop both physically and skill-wise. Scott, who's 6'7/230,  has even played some small-ball center.

Turgeon keeps a short rotation. Sixth man Hakim Hart gets almost all his points as a spot-up shooter or on the fast break and he's been very efficient with those opportunities; he's their #3 outside shooting threat after Scott and Hamilton, at least in terms of the threat the ball actually goes in. Freshman guard Aquan Smart, the #407 player in the 2020 composite, has been a bit of a wreck on both ends of the floor but usually gets 5-10 minutes. If senior guard Reese Mona sees the floor it's just to keep the ball moving for a few minutes while the starters rest; he's shooting on only 5%(!) of his possessions this season.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Maryland has struggled to score in Big Ten games, posting the #11 offensive efficiency in the conference with middling-to-ugly 49/31/67 shooting splits. They're not turning the ball over but they're not doing anything else very well.

Their defense has been mediocre in B1G games, and while one could point to bad three-point luck as reason for optimism—B1G opponents are shooting 44% from three—there's also the inevitable regression of their league-best 54.2% "free throw defense." Michigan, notably, is the best free-throw shooting team in the conference. The Terps, like the Wolverines, are almost comically averse to forcing turnovers, and their games usually don't feature much offensive rebounding on either end of the floor. That's good news for a Michigan squad that's come out on the wrong side of the shot volume battle in their recent games.

THE KEYS

Tweak the rotation. The other future Basketbullets section inspired by the Nebraska game that I haven't had time to write yet: Chaundee Brown needs to get more playing time at the expense of playing Mike Smith and Eli Brooks at the same time, particularly when the opponent has a bigger backcourt, as the Terps do.

While I don't expect Juwan Howard to change his starting lineup, Brown should get closer to 30 minutes in this game than the 16 he played against Nebraska, and hopefully that'll head off a big game from Ayala/Wiggins or the rare outburst from Morsell. So long as he's taking care of the ball, Brooks is probably the preferred option next to Brown because of his size and overall defensive edge on Smith.

The on/off numbers say Brooks/Brown lineups have a spectacular +0.34 margin in points per possession, according to HoopLens, with Michigan absolutely cooking in a remarkably sustainable way on both offense (65% on twos) and defense (opponents shooting 35% on twos) (35% ON TWOS!) (HOLY HELL) in around three game's worth of possessions. Smith/Brown lineups are a mere +0.31 with near-identical two-point numbers on both ends. Lineups with the two guards on the floor and Brown on the bench are +0.12, which is still good, but not the hell-units unleashed when Brown is the shooting guard.

This isn't about Smith or Brooks being bad, this is about Brown being too good not to get more minutes. 

Attack their bigs. You probably had this in mind as soon as you saw that Maryland's top two centers are defensive liabilities. Give Hunter Dickinson the ball. The Terps are either going to have to send a lot of help, opening the arc for shots that Michigan will hopefully hit at a second-half-versus-Nebraska rate instead of a first-half-versus-Nebraska rate, or live with Dickinson feasting around the rim and likely putting at least one of their big men in foul trouble.

If Turgeon starts Mariol or plays him significant minutes, you'll know he's deeply concerned about this matchup and willing to give up any threat of offense from the center spot to make it better.

Track Scott. The player I'm most concerned about going off in a way that can swing a game is Donta Scott, who's been effective wherever he decides to shoot the ball this year. He's a tough player to defend, burly and skilled enough to score against bigger players in the post and able to also put up points in volume from beyond the arc. We've seen some uncharacteristic defensive lapses from Isaiah Livers this year, particularly with losing shooters; that needs to be cleaned up against Scott or he'll take full advantage. 

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.

The center matchup should swing this game in Michigan's favor. Turgeon's best option may be to go super-small and see if they can turn this into a shootout.