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Date Title Body
03/25/2019 - 11:29am The thing that worries me…

The thing that worries me most is that they are in the 99th% of defending ball screens, which is basically our go-to on offense without the same amount of shooting this year.  It could be REALLY tough to score without our ball screen game.  

03/20/2019 - 4:00pm Tillman vs. Zion, not Goins.

Tillman vs. Zion, not Goins.

03/20/2019 - 2:08pm What if I told you that RJ…

What if I told you that RJ Barrett and Tre Jones are significantly worse 3 point shooters than Zavier Simpson?  Tre Jones shoots 24%.  MSU is going to give him the Tum Tum treatment?  I don't like teams that can't make shots outside of 5' in the tournament.  MSU has the bigs to slow them down inside.  At worst, make them shoot FTs, as Barrett and Zion both shoot 65%.

 

03/19/2019 - 3:46pm I would be SHOCKED if both…

I would be SHOCKED if both Iggy and Poole came back next year.  I think it's likely one of them goes pro and more likely both go than both stay.

Poole is just outside the Top 30 (35) in recent player rankings.  If he plays well at the combine (which is his element), he will move into the late first round and be gone.

Iggy is going to be 20 soon and the clock is ticking.  Now that he's approved his 3 point jumper to around 40%, he's moved up the rankings and will look to cash in while he can.

I expect a starting lineup next year of Simpson, Brooks, Poole, Livers Teske with Johns, CC, and Wilson off the bench getting mins.

Have also heard Teske will declare, to go through the NBA combine (no reason not too), but that he's more than likely to come back.  Especially with how much his shooting has tailed off teh 2nd half of the season.

03/16/2019 - 7:51pm Why do you think Gonzaga is…

Why do you think Gonzaga is so bad?  They have as much talent and experience as anyone. 

03/16/2019 - 12:10am Because Iowa is one of the…

Because Iowa is one of the worst defenses we’ve seen all season and MSU is the #4 team in kenpom and a likely final four team?

03/15/2019 - 3:41pm No Matthews in the after…

No Matthews in the after practice photo Michigan basketball twitter just sent out.  Guessing he's out again tonight.

03/15/2019 - 3:34pm Quick Summary (IMO):

Lose…

Quick Summary (IMO):

  • Lose tonight - 3 seed (2% chance we could drop to 4 but some weird stuff would need to happen like K-State winning the B12, Wisconsin winning the BTT, etc.)
  • Win tonight - 50% at a 2 seed
  • Beat Purdue: 90% chance at a 2 seed

Purdue will have a strong argument for a 2 if they beat us head to head in the BTT.  If they win the BTT, you have to give them a 2 as the regular season and BTT champs.

03/15/2019 - 1:39pm I keep feel like MSU is…

I keep feel like MSU is playing over their head, but I've come to realize this team is just good.  They consistently shoot the ball extremely well on offense.  They just shot 62% in the first half against OSU; I"m not sure if Michigan has shot 60% in a half all season. 

Izzo has finally adapted to modern basketball and have an outstanding PG who gets open looks for 40% 3 point shooters.  Not sure how you slow down this offense except for having an elite level athlete, large PG.  A 6'4 athletic PG could give Winston issues (or Matthews maybe if we get another shot?)

03/13/2019 - 2:20pm Prefacing this with the face…

Prefacing this with the face that is 100% speculation....

But Michigan Basketball posted a photo on twitter yesterday of the team after practice with superfan Jude.  Everybody was in their practice jerseys while Matthews was in a t-shirt.  Make of it what you will (only did parts of practice, worked out beforehand, etc.), but my guess is he is still unlikely to play this weekend.

03/11/2019 - 5:32pm I just went back and re…

I just went back and re-watched the first half and only saw ONE occasion where Michigan switched a 1-5 ball screen.  Early in the game they got turnovers off the 1-4 and 1-3.

Maybe I'm missing something, but can somebody show me some clips?  I don't think Michigan changed their strategy, it's that MSU changed theirs.

03/11/2019 - 1:42pm Momentum & Mentalities:  I…

Momentum & Mentalities:  I actually agree with this, but it's not lopsided like you say.  Michigan has the revenge factor from that Iowa game.  I would feel MUCH worse if we had beat them earlier in the season.  Michigan is 4-2 in it's last 6 games, Iowa is 1-5.

Iowa not playing for the tournament, just playing for seeding.  Michigan in the same boat and angry to prove the haters wrong after a tough loss.

If Matthews makes it back, it could provide a spark for this team.

03/11/2019 - 1:03pm I didn't see us switching 1…

I didn't see us switching 1/5 ball screens all that much in the 1st half.  We switched everything 1 through 4 though.  In the 2nd half, MSU almost went exclusively to the 1/5 ball screen.  I think I remember maybe 1 pick from Goins, but otherwise it was all Tillman.  

MSU realized it was a problem for them when Michigan switched 1/4 screens and just went excusively 1/5 instead.  Teske, as great as he is, doesn't quite move his feet fast enough, and MSU could take advantage.  

03/10/2019 - 9:04am Yeah except Duke beat #2 UVA…

Yeah except Duke beat #2 UVA twice. We beat....Wisconsin @ home?  

03/09/2019 - 10:55pm Hate to break it to you, but…

Hate to break it to you, but Poole and Iggy are gone. Teske is going to declare and give the combine a shot. Simpson won’t let this be a bubble team next year, but will he the talent of a bubble team. 

03/07/2019 - 3:51pm Not sure why you're taking…

Not sure why you're taking offense to that.  You said "the last 10 mins were encouraging"; Michigan played nearly perfect basketball the last 8-10 minutes of the game.  Of course it's going to look great.  

If you had said the Maryland game was encouraging, I would definitely agree!  It's just that so many fans get upset when we don't play like we did the last 10 mins of Maryland, it's just not sustainable.

I see people saying here that we need the offense to play better this time around against MSU.  Our offense the first game was better than the Maryland game and one of our best performances of the season (almost exact same PPP as the Villanova game).  This game is ALL about improving on D.

03/07/2019 - 3:29pm We tried that in the 1st…

We tried that in the 1st game and Winston still got 27.  Are we going to let Winston go for 40?  

03/07/2019 - 3:25pm You mean Michigan averaging…

You mean Michigan averaging over 2 points per possession for the last 5 minutes?  Probably not sustainable over an entire game.

03/06/2019 - 12:36pm You're exactly right, they…

You're exactly right, they would 100% swap Louisville and Villanova in that scenario.

03/06/2019 - 9:24am This x100.  Our offense,…

This x100.  Our offense, despite an end of game scoreless few mins, wasn't the problem against MSU.  It was actually our 2nd best offensive performance since New Years.  The defense got picked a part by Winston and I'm not sure what the solution is other than hope Goins misses open 3s.  Particularly if Matthews isn't playing. 

 

02/25/2019 - 2:18pm I don't disagree with that…

I don't disagree with that point, but its not for a lack of trying.  Michigan went hard after Brad Davidson before signing Eli Brooks.  I live 10 mins from Davidson's high school and Coach B was at several games of his.  Brad coming off the bench instead of Eli would be huge for this game, but he fell in love with Madison instead.  

Similar story in 2016, we all but had Tyus Battle before having to settle for Ibi Watson.  Went hard after TJ Leaf before signing Austin Davis.

02/25/2019 - 12:07pm It's tough to hit on every…

It's tough to hit on every recruit.  For every MAAR, there is an Eli Brooks.  For every Jordan Morgan, there is an Austin Davis.  Should the freshman have gotten more mins early in the season? 100%.  Were we good enough to play them a lot when we were fighting against Air Force and Western Michigan?  Maybe/Maybe not.

I think the Coaching Staff has done a masterful job with this team.  They have maximized the ability of guys like Simpson and Teske.  Look @ Teske from his freshman year to today, I never thought he'd be as impactful as he is now.  I still think they are working with Poole and Iggy--there is room to grow in college for the both of them if they decide that's what they want.

It's easy to look @ the flaws, but we should not take it for granted what this coaching staff gets out of its players.  A 5'10 PG, 2 star recruit from Pennsylvania, a D3 transfer, and a guy from Germany took us to the Championship Game last year.  I'm excited to see what the coaching staff can do to finish this year and beyond!

02/22/2019 - 12:34pm Michigan is being put in the…

Michigan is being put in the East because they are a top 2 seed, regional much closer to Home.  Because of that it pairs them with Duke.  Weird situation where it might actually be an advantage to be sent West, rather be paired with Gonzaga in Anaheim Regional.  

Michigan's alumni base makes being shipped out west much less of an issue than it would be for most east schools.  Wonder if Warde has anyway of sharing that with the committee.

02/20/2019 - 12:14pm Agree with this 100%.  MSU…

Agree with this 100%.  MSU is Top 10 KenPom on both offense and defense and have proved they can beat good teams on the road (something Michigan hasn't done outside of Villanova).

If you look @ on/off stats, MSU is actually better offensively and defensively with Tillman in over Ward.  With that said, it doesn't take into account the depth issues of moving Tillman into the starting 5.

I do think people are over-looking how well this team plays together--think Michigan 2017/2018 vs. MSU last year deferring to Bridges or Jackson.

02/18/2019 - 4:50pm Any specific reason you say…

Any specific reason you say Rumler?  Is there a departure we don't know about, or are you just hoping from an o-line depth standpoint?

02/13/2019 - 10:21pm Not disagreeing with the…

Not disagreeing with the negs on this one, but also not trying to be a debbie downer.  I just don't we've played teams with the talent of MSU & Maryland in awhile (Maryland has WAY more talent than Wisconsin, but much worse coaching).  We've already proven we struggle on the road (PSU, NW, Iowa), so Minnesota is no gimme.

The only game I see as a 80+% win down the stretch is Nebraska.  Everything else IS a potential loss.

02/13/2019 - 4:02pm Unfortunately, last night is…

Unfortunately, last night is who we are.  Almost every game this season, we've held the opposite team below their season Point per Possession.  When we don't, we don't make enough shots to win the game.

Michigan has a had a CAKE Big Ten schedule to date (10 of 13 games against the bottom half of the conference).  We've beaten NW by 1 point, Minnesota by 1 point, and a loss to Penn State.  

Things honestly get a little hairy if we lose to Maryland @ home on Saturday.  I expect us to win, but if we lose that game, finishing 1-6 down the stretch becomes a real possibility.  

02/01/2019 - 10:48am The fact that Indiana is…

The fact that Indiana is still in the tournament (granted, last 4 in) after a 7 game losing streak tells me its a very soft bubble this year.

With that said, a lot of the potential 8/9 winners could be scary if we're a 1 seed.  NC State & Syracuse have as much talent as anybody, they are just inconsistent.

01/30/2019 - 3:24pm Depth chat is so important…

Depth chat is so important in basketball.  From what it sounds like, DJ loved Michigan.  But he also looked @ the reality of sitting behind Simpson, DDJ, and Brooks next year.  Possibly still behind DDJ after that. As a top 25 recruit in the country, sitting for 2 years doesn't sound too appealing.

He can start next year for OSU and be a part of a Top 10 recruiting class.  Would love to see him go somewhere other than OSU, but I don't blame the kid whatsoever.

01/29/2019 - 11:58am This.  The Western Michigan…

This.  The Western Michigan game is an example of performance really hurting us.  We only beat them by single digits.  Eastern Michigan just beat them by 26 on Western's home floor.

Offense will need to improve if we want to make a title run.  No team outside the top 25 in kenpom offense has every won the national championship.  Almost none have ever made the final four.

01/28/2019 - 11:22am Give me a 2 seed with…

Give me a 2 seed with Tennessee as the 1 and Houston as the 3 ALL DAY over being a 1 seed with a Wash/Cuse winner in Round 2 and a Villanova rematch waiting in Sweet 16.

01/23/2019 - 10:17am 2 big issues I see:

We have…

2 big issues I see:

We have thrived on the pick and roll with Simpson.  Both Wisconsin and Minnesota have dared Simpson to shoot or drive coming off the pick.  He does not shoot well on the move.  This alone bogs down the offense.

Go back and look at the ball movement we had on offense last year vs. this year.  This year you see a lot of passing and standing around.  Then it turns into a 1 on 1 move to the hoop.  It does NOT look like a John B. offense.

Is the season a lost cause....not even close!  Do I think we finish 3rd in the Big Ten...yes.  3 seed in the big dance and everybody will be writing us off per usual.  

01/23/2019 - 10:14am Unless you are Michigan…

Unless you are Michigan State who beats everybody by double digits

01/22/2019 - 9:24am It's exciting yet…

It's exciting yet frustrating that we have to plan for the unknown regularly.  Poole, Iggy, Livers, etc., there's a good chance none of these guys see their senior year.  Meanwhile MSU is #3 in Kenpom with a team that has zero NBA prospects and will all be back next year.  I know I shouldn't complain, but makes life tough on Coach B!

01/15/2019 - 11:05am We have at least 6 guys on…

We have at least 6 guys on the depth chart at OT.  I know the performance hasn't been great, but it takes time.  We don't need any more OTs.  

01/15/2019 - 9:34am We're about to find out how…

We're about to find out how good this team really is over the next 3 to 4 weeks.  Don't get me wrong, Michigan is VERY good.  With that said, we've only played 4 Top 50 teams, adjusted for home/road.  Duke has played 8, Michigan State 7, and Maryland, despite their awful non-con, has played 5.  We have really played a soft schedule, driven by playing the dregs of the Big Ten to start the season.

11 of our next 14 are Top 50 teams.  If we can go 11-3 or 10-4, a 1 seed is for sure what we deserve.  

12/30/2018 - 11:53pm Anybody wishing Brown gone…

Anybody wishing Brown gone is not allowed to complain about 2020 recruiting. Brown would no doubt take Patridge to be his DC and our best recruiter, Al Washington, as well (Brown has been his career mentor). Recruiting trail gets tough losing 3 of your best recruiters after they’ve been building 2020 inroads for a year. 

11/25/2018 - 5:06pm Baumgardner is saying there…

Baumgardner is saying there’s an outside chance we fall to the Citrus bowl. What is the scenario that happens?  

11/19/2018 - 2:19pm Curious, why is this game…

Curious, why is this game bigger than the 2016 game?  Same location, same record, same playoff ranking and ability to make the playoff....

I'd say just as big of a game and 2016 and 2006.

11/15/2018 - 11:44am They only thing that worries…

They only thing that worries me is if Hill and Metellus can't go.  With some of the busts that Hawkins has had plus getting a ton more Ambry on the field, there's opportunities for things to go wrong. If those guys aren't in there, look for them to work a lot of double moves/pick plays on Hawkins/Thomas.

11/14/2018 - 1:33pm Question, why does everyone…

Question, why does everyone keep saying this is the biggest game in years.  AKA, why is this game/season better than 2016.  

2016 we were in the exact same situation, had actually beaten better teams, and controlled our own destiny to the playoff.  We didn't exactly crush it with our 2016/2017 recruiting class as a result.

Just curious.  It seems that people forget we were in the exact same, if not better, situation going into the IU game in 2016.

10/30/2018 - 1:14pm I can't wait to see the same…

I can't wait to see the same optimists change their tune when we can hit the broad side of a barn in Nov & Dec.  I expect a very rough non-con season before turning it on in Jan and Feb.

This will probably be one of Beilien's most frustrating teams to coach.  With that said, if the defense takes another step up, could still be one of his best.  Really interested to see how he adapts an offense to one that is below average @ shooting.

10/29/2018 - 12:44pm This.  It's not too far…

This.  It's not too far fetched at all.  Michigan loses to PSU and OSU.  MSU wins out.  MSU wins the tiebreaker and probably wins the Big Ten.

 

Let's beat PSU and not allow this as an option.

10/24/2018 - 12:26pm I love the projection for a…

I love the projection for a guy who's played 3 games at Michigan.  I don't expect him to make a major impact the rest of the way.  He'll rotate in with DPJ and Collins.  Needs to show he's a willing blocker like those 2 guys.  

Biggest thing is we probably see much less Ronnie Bell.

10/23/2018 - 3:06pm If Michigan can beat Penn…

If Michigan can beat Penn State, you should really spend that night rooting for Alabama against LSU.  If LSU wins and makes the SEC championship game, its almost for sure that 1 loss LSU and 1 loss Bama would both make the playoff.  Along with undefeated Clemson and undefeated Notre Dame.

1 loss Oklahoma/Michigan/Ohio State would be left at home.

10/20/2018 - 10:14am You don’t waste a travel…

You don’t waste a travel roster spot on a guy who can’t play 

10/10/2018 - 9:27am James Franklin is 1-10…

James Franklin is 1-10 against the spread coming off of a loss.  Dantonio is 9-3 against the spread coming off a loss.  Line is inflated due to MSU performance last week. Fancystats have this line between 8-9. I would be VERY careful about putting $$ on Penn State.  I think PSU wins, but its MUCH closer then 13.5.  

10/09/2018 - 3:09pm It still shouldn't matter,…

It still shouldn't matter, but Tai Streets actually played basketball for Michigan, for those of you that don't remember.  Appeared in 13 games.

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/tai-streets-1.html

 

 

10/01/2018 - 3:08pm We have an interesting…

We have an interesting passing game where we run very few routes over the middle. I can't remember the last time we completed a slant or skinny post.  We have a very "safe" passing game compared with other teams.

09/10/2018 - 2:29pm He's not a swing option.  He…

He's not a swing option.  He a pure tackle.  A swing guy is a guy like who potentially as the ability to fill in at Tackle or Guard. Mayfield is a pure OT and will either be a starter or won't.  They're not going to waste his redshirt as a backup later this year.