THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#3 Michigan (19-3, 14-3 B1G) vs #29 Maryland (16-12, 9-11)	non-jaunty sailor
WHERE	Ann Arbor Elder Law Stadium Indianapolis, IN
WHEN	11:30 AM Eastern Friday, March 12th
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -7 Torvik: M –6.4
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler? Analyst: Probably Stephen Bardo

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan draws 9-seed Weird Maryland in their first Big Ten tournament game after the Terrapins held Michigan State to seven points over a 17-minute period spanning halftime. Sometimes you eat the midrange, and sometimes the midrange eats you.

Michigan had a season sweep of the Terrapins, winning 84-73 at home—that was the game where Maryland was 11/13 from 3 in the first half—and 87-63 on the road. At that point they were 2-6 in conference play and nowhere near the tourney. Now they're in… for reasons? The Terps have wins over Nebraska (2x), MSU (2x), Minnesota (2x), Purdue, and Rutgers. They've lost to Wisconsin, OSU, PSU (2x), and Northwestern. Just after it seemed like they'd found some footing during a five-game win streak where the closest game was an eight point win over, uh, Nebraska, Maryland closed the regular season with losses to Northwestern and Penn State.

Weird Maryland.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Brooks and (to a lesser extent) Wagner are injury question marks. Everything else is as it has been.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Marial has not played in the last five games and Smart has not had more than one minute in the last seven so this is functionally a seven-man rotation. As Seth notes, designating a starter at C is suboptimal since Scott, Smith, and Hamilton are all splitting minutes about down the middle there.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

[Campredon]

It's been long enough that we'll refresh the personnel section somewhat. Ace has a more complete look in the first preview. Maryland heard about "positionless basketball" and decided to take that as literally as possible. Their five starters range from 6'5" to 6'7". They don't have a point guard. They don't really have a center. They're just… you know, out there. Ballin'. Except against Northwestern.

The results are pretty remarkable statistically. Except for Daryll Morsell—the Big Ten defensive player of the year —everyone in the starting lineup splits their shots about evenly between three and two. (Morsell is a 24% 3P shooter and is heavily biased inside the line.) Donta Scott is a dangerous threat on the outside at 44%. Aaron Wiggins, Hakim Hart, and Eric Ayala all shoot 34% from three. Everyone in the starting lineup shoots ~55% from two except for Wiggins, who's at 50%. Everyone has an assist rate in the mid to high teens; everyone has a TO rate between 13 and 20. They're all the same guy!

It's probably quicker to talk about the differences between these guys than repeatedly say "this guy's a Not Just A Shooter wing." Scott is a natural stretch four who's playing about half his minutes at the five. This has had surprisingly little impact on Maryland's bottom line:

They shoot a little worse and turn the ball over a little less. Scott is the most likely wing type to hold up to post-ups from Wagner and Livers. He is a little easier to get around with quickness.

Morsell is the defensive stopper and the guy you can double/sag off of. He's a 13th percentile spot-up shooter and has those issues from three mentioned before. While he's not the real DPOY in the Big Ten he is rangy and athletic and capable of giving guys like Aaron Henry and Ayo Dosunmu issues.

Wiggins and Ayala are the high usage guys who are functioning as quasi-point guards. This doesn't mean they're dishing out a ton of assists. It does mean they are the primary pick and roll options. Ayala is much better because he goes to the bucket and Wiggins likes to pull up.

Hart… uh… has no distinguishing characteristics. He's the lowest-usage guy in the starting five.

Maryland's bench consists of two backup bigs and almost nothing else:

• Galin Smith is a paint-bound, undersized C who shoots 46% from the floor in Big Ten play and has a TO rate near 30.
• BC transfer Jarius Hamilton is a stretch five shooting 41% from three on ~80 attempts this year. He doesn't do a whole lot else on offense. His rebounding is a major negative. Maryland will play the two backup Cs together from time to time.
• Walk-on G Reese Mona is virtually invisible. He takes 4% of Maryland's shots; he gets seven minutes a game.

Maryland gets rest for their starters 1-4 by bringing in the backup Cs—who actually get two-thirds of Maryland C minutes—and moving Scott to the 4, allowing one of the Morsell/Ayala/Hart/Wiggins quad to sit.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Left offense, right defense, conference numbers:

Obviously the number that jumps out is the dearth of OREBs. The rest is a sea of meh to relatively good. Drill-down stats of note: Maryland launches more threes than anyone else in the league and allows a fair few, probably because they've got to double the post. Their two-point defense is 4th in the league, which is an impressive feat for a team with no shotblockers in the Land Of The Big Ten Giants.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Post touches. Maryland attempted to defend Hunter Dickinson in two different ways, each of them spectacularly ineffective. In game one they let Dickinson go to work; he put up 26 points on 14 shooting possessions and grabbed four offensive boards. In game two they relentlessly doubled him; Dickinson had three points and several hockey assists as Michigan shot a relatively deserved 50% from three.

A dollar says they dig down a bunch and try to avoid hard doubles while still attempting to throw a now-scuffling Dickinson off his game. But they lack the size to play it straight up down low and every post touch will result in either a good look from Dickinson or Maryland in recovery mode. Or a turnover, I guess.

Michigan drop coverage. The best thing Maryland does on offense is run pick and roll. They're 84th percentile once you include pass-outs, and they're particularly good when the PNR ballhandler shoots. Those aren't particularly efficient shots, in the greater scheme of things, but Ayala is averaging 1.1 PPP, 95th percentile, on these attempts. This is almost all him taking it to the bucket—jumpers are rare and inefficient. Ayala also draws a fair number of fouls.

This is going to mean a lot of Dickinson switching onto Ayala, Ayala driving it at him, and Dickinson trying to defend a guard without fouling. This has been an issue in previous games. Meanwhile the prospect of Austin Davis trying to defend a really good PNR ballhandler scorer is ominous. (This might be a game to put Brandon Johns out for the backup C minutes, if you can do that in the presumed absence of Brooks.)

Wiggins is less of an issue because he pulls up a lot and is not very good at doing that. Dickinson really should not be closing out guys pulling up from distance. It is absolutely not worth it.

Who's on from distance? Maryland gives up a lot of threes and Michigan has thrived behind the line for most of the everyone doubles Dickinson phase. Meanwhile, Maryland takes a ton of threes, many of them contested, because they struggle to penetrate. That worked out spectacularly well for a half, and then not so much. Maryland's upset hopes likely rely on another barrage from behind the line.

[Campredon]

Working around Eli's absence. My assumption is that Eli Brooks isn't going to play until the NCAA tournament, if then. Brooks was (almost entirely) absent for two of Michigan's three bad performances this year and has those spooky on-off splits that suggest he's worth much more than his box score stats would indicate. Chaundee Brown and Zeb Jackson are suddenly key players—in Brown's case, more key—and since this tournament is largely useless for a team already locked on the one line the most important thing to come from it could be a feeling that not having Brooks is not necessarily fatal.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.