THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#12 Michigan (8-0, 3-0 B1G) vs #54 Northwestern (6-2, 3-1)
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN	7:37 pm Eastern Sunday, Jan. 3rd
THE LINE	KenPom: M -7 Torvik: M -6.3 Vegas: N/A
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Dave Revsine Analyst: Robbie Hummel

THE OVERVIEW

There are three Big Ten games today, two of which will have an impact on the teams directly behind Michigan in standings (Iowa just beat Rutgers, Illinois-Purdue at 6) and one with delightfully little relevance to the conference title picture (MSU-Nebraska). No matter how those play out, Michigan can maintain first place in the conference by holding serve at home on Sunday against the surprise of the season thus far, Northwestern, which is in the four-team pack one game behind M in the loss column.

This game marks the first time in 175 meetings between Michigan and Northwestern that both programs enter the game ranked in the polls.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Austin Davis remains out with a plantar fascia injury. Juwan Howard tightened the rotation to seven players against Maryland, playing Brandon Johns for eight minutes at center and two alongside Hunter Dickinson at power forward while Terrance Williams didn't get off the bench.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

So, yeah, we added a Disaster Factory tag.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview plus an updated WBB preview for tomorrow's Northwestern game.]

THE THEM

Northwestern has climbed from the #69 overall team (nice) in KenPom's preseason projections to 54th, and even that jump masks how much better they've played than last year's #132-ranked squad. If you use Bart Torvik's date selector to strip out preseason expectations, as we're wont to do here, then the Wildcats are 26th in the country. They've pulled upsets (at least at the time) over Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State, the former two by comfortable margins, before finally dropping a Big Ten game at Iowa on Tuesday. They also lost at home to a bad Pitt team, so they're prone to some swings.

As mentioned in this week's Big Ten Reset, Chris Collins has overhauled the offense with great results this season:

Throw out any scouting reports on Northwestern's offense from prior to this season because Chris Collins has completely changed their approach to great effect. Here are their last five years of offensive stats, per KenPom. I've bolded some notable numbers for this year:

	Adj. Tempo	Avg. Poss. Length	Adj. Off. Eff. (rk)	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTA/FGA	3PA/FGA	A/FGM
2020-21	70.9 poss.	14.9 sec.	108.3 (56)	57.5	15.1	20.2	37.9	39.4	70.3
2019-20	66.7	17.6	104.9 (131)	46.9	15.6	22.0	25.8	33.9	57.1
2018-19	66.0	17.9	102.9 (204)	46.6	16.1	24.1	30.2	40.7	61.4
2017-18	63.9	18.2	109.2 (96)	49.5	17.8	29.4	29.1	39.3	57.1
2016-17	65.6	17.7	111.3 (59)	49.7	16.0	30.8	30.5	35.6	59.3

The Wildcats are playing at a top-25 pace on offense after falling among the slower units in the country in previous years. That's put a huge jolt into their shooting stats as they get more assisted buckets and fewer late-clock chucks. In their three Big Ten games, they're shooting 58% on twos, 41% on threes, and 78% at the line. They're still taking good care of the ball, so their near-total aversion to offensive rebounds doesn't hurt them much in the shot-generating department, and the result is an offense that ranks slightly ahead of the only Northwestern group to ever make the tournament (2016-17).

How has this happened? Collins has modernized the offense, going with a lot of five-out sets that trigger with the center at the top of the arc. This allows for quick-hitting screens, slips, and off-ball cuts that are tough to defend with the center pulled out to the perimeter.

Collins has been able to take a perceived negative—Pete Nance and Ryan Young rotating at center—and turn it into a positive, as both have been efficient players with a strong understanding of how to function in this offense. Their perimeter shooters have been lighting it up, so there isn't a solution as simple as "back off less threatening players and tag cutters."

The five-out approach has gotten Northwestern up to the #5 offense in the Big Ten even though the individual pieces fit together in an unusual way.

Their leading scorer is junior Miller Kopp, a Just A Shooter™ who's connected on 16/27 three-pointers. While he's a passable pick-and-roll ballhandler, that's not usually how he's utilized; he can hit long jumpers from a standstill or on the move and he's often the player flashing around the perimeter to replace a backdoor cutter. He can also use the threat of his shot to be that cutter himself and he finishes at a solid rate inside the arc even though most of his two-pointers are of the step-in midrange variety. Michigan's defenders can't have off-ball communication errors involving Kopp.

While Kopp often ends possessions, he's rarely the guy handling the ball. There are three distinct hubs of this offense. As outlined in the video I've embedded in two posts now because you really should watch it, one of them is the center, which is usually 6'10/225 junior Pete Nance, a former four-star and one-time Beilein target. He's comfortable as a passer/screener at the top of these five-out sets and has become increasingly dangerous taking big men off the dribble, making 70% of his twos in Big Ten games. His three-point shot (career 29%) is just enough of a threat to usually get defenders to step out on him, though he was solid on unguarded jumpers last year (1/5 this year isn't much of a sample), so Dickinson probably can't sink too far off of him.

The Nance/Dickinson matchup is likely to be the focus on both ends of the floor. While Collins doesn't usually send doubles into the post, he's done so with high frequency against high-volume post scorers this season, and InsideNU has a fascinating breakdown about how they do it: almost exclusively by sending 6'4 backup defensive specialist Anthony Gaines as the second defender. The Wildcats haven't been great on post defense but they've fared better when having Gaines double; unfortunately, Gaines has nearly as many turnovers (10) as field goals (11) this season and he's always been an inefficient scorer despite low usage, so Collins can only afford the defense-offense tradeoff for so many minutes. When Gaines isn't there, Collins seems to give up on double-teams because the other help defenders aren't nearly as good at it.

Offensive hub #2 is point guard Boo Buie, a solid passer and three-point shooter who isn't as efficient scoring inside the arc unless he's drawing fouls. He can go off for huge numbers, as he did against Michigan State.

Buie is 6'2/180, so M should be able to stick Eli Brooks on him and fare a lot better than MSU's so-far-disastrous point guards did.

Speaking of disastrous: the third offensive playmaker is sophomore Chase Audige, who topped Brian's early contenders list for B1G Disaster Factory of the Year (I maintain it's Both Gach's award to lose).

Audige is a William & Mary uptransfer who has landed in the Big Ten and sees this as an opportunity to nearly double his usage(!!!), going from an 18.5 guy in the Colonial to a 32.4 guy at Northwestern. Currently splitting shots evenly between twos and threes he hits at a 23% rate, checking in with a 93 ORTG. In-person viewing reveals a Leeroy Jenkins vibe critical to the enterprise.

Audige is Northwestern's main off-the-bounce scoring threat, and while he's capable of making some really tough shots, he takes a lot of really tough shots. I consider him more of a Chaos Agent than a Disaster Factory; he has some very good games and some absolute clunkers. Outside of a four-turnover game against IU, he's taken good care of the ball, he just decides to do some very audacious things with it. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. We'll call him a swing player, especially since he'll have a size advantage if Michigan sticks one of their starting guards on him.

Stretch four Robbie Beran finishes out the starting five. He's a low-volume JAS™ who has career marks right around 40% from both inside and outside the arc, which fairly encapsulates his primary strength and his limitations. He's been one of the team's better defenders this season, holding up particularly well in the post and against roll men. Beran and Gaines each play right around half the team's minutes.

Backup center Ryan Young makes a big impact on the boards and replicates what Nance does on offense pretty well outside of a few extra turnovers. He's not a strong defender, however, and is going to have a hard time handling Dickinson. Freshman guard Ty Berry is operating as another JAS™ hitting over 40% of his threes. The other rotation player, junior guard Ryan Greer, is mostly invisible on offense but might be their best perimeter defender, so he plays 15-20 minutes even though he's hit multiple field goals once this season.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Since sample sizes are going to be small either way, I'm moving to conference-only stats from here forward. 

Four Factors explanation

The only thing Northwestern does better than the Big Ten average is shoot but they're doing that much better than the average; the only team in the league hitting at a higher eFG% clip is... Michigan. The Wildcats eschew offensive rebounds to an extreme degree and are slightly turnover-prone by B1G standards (which is to say, not very turnover-prone), so there's a chance to open up a possession gap.

That's also the case because NW hasn't done well keeping conference opponents off the offensive boards and they're not forcing many turnovers. They've ended up almost exactly average for the conference overall on the defensive end. Collins has mixed in zone looks for 8% of their possessions, according to Synergy, but their man defense has been significantly more effective.

THE KEYS

Contain Nance. This could turn into a nerve-wracking barnburner if Nance is able to put Dickinson in space and find ways to score or draw help from defenders who should be sticking to shooters. Dickinson has been a more mobile defender than expected and hopefully can use his length to dissuade outside shots without losing leverage on drives. He's going to have a significant size advantage in the post, so as long as he isn't getting lit up or taking too many fouls, he should once again be the focal point of the gameplan.

Off ball and on point. Michigan's biggest defensive weakness has been a lack of off-ball communication leading to open shots. Northwestern's offense is largely predicated on freeing up their perimeter players for wide open shots with the hoops equivalent of the spread-and-shred. With the short turnaround, the defensive gameplan may have to stay relatively simple—not getting too fancy with pick-and-roll schemes and switching rules—to avoid the occasional blown play.

Feed the post. This goes beyond getting the ball to Dickinson, which is always a good idea. Northwestern generally has issues guarding post-ups and they don't have the burliest team out there; this is a good game for guys like Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers to focus on attacking matchups with hard drives and backdowns. Wagner is basically the size of NW's centers; I want to see if Kopp and Beran can handle him.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

I'm not ready to believe that Pete Nance can play Hunter Dickinson off the court, and if that doesn't happen, it's gonna be tough for the Wildcats to keep up.

----------------

Slightly Updated WBB Preview: Also Northwestern

Originally posted on Wednesday.

priority #1 is slowing down Lindsey Pulliam [Scott]

WHAT	#16 Michigan (6-0, 1-0 B1G) at #15 Northwestern (4-1, 2-1)
WHERE	Welsh-Ryan Arena Evanston, IL
WHEN	5 pm Eastern Sunday, Jan. 3rd
THE LINE	N/A
TELEVISION	ESPN2 PBP: Roy Philpott Analyst: Brooke Weisbrod

ESPN named this the game of the week. Like, in the country:

GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan at Northwestern, Sunday. The 16th-ranked Wolverines finally are off pause and will face No. 15 Northwestern in an early-season Big Ten contest. Michigan hasn't played since Dec. 9. Both teams also play Thursday afternoon.

It's also on national TV. Michigan held up their end of the bargain by smashing Wisconsin on Thursday even though the Wolverines had only eight scholarship players (albeit all five starters) available. Emily Kiser, notably, was one of the available bench players, posting eight points and eight boards in her season debut coming off an ankle injury. The biggest absence is Maddie Nolan if the same group of players is available; with little backcourt depth, there'd be a lot of pressure on Amy Dilk to stay out of foul trouble.

Northwestern didn't hold up their end, falling later on Thursday to a mediocre Nebraska squad. While that's a disappointment for the purposes of game hype and how much a win can impact the polls, it gives M a chance to open up a gap on another B1G contender.

THE THEM

Northwestern got a late start to the season after their opener was canceled; they're currently 4-1 (2-1 Big Ten) with blowout wins over Minnesota and Purdue heading into their own Thursday game against cellar-dwellar Nebraska.

All-American candidate guard Lindsey Pulliam is off to a bad start from beyond the arc but has maintained her high-level scoring off the bounce. Meanwhile, last year's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Veronica Burton, has been a dominant force on both ends of the floor as a junior. From Inside NU's Big Ten power rankings, a recommended read:

The ‘Cats are off to a hot start, and despite facing some shooting challenges early this season, they have rolled through their first two Big Ten matchups and all of their nonconference opponents. Veronica Burton has carried the team, averaging 21 points and 5.5 assists per game. Wood has emerged as a threat on both sides of the court, scoring 14 points per game in addition to her dominant defense. And Lindsey Pulliam maintained her dominant play despite some below-average shooting nights. With more challenging Big Ten opponents on the horizon, it remains to be seen how the small lineup will matchup against some of the conference’s strongest post players.

Northwestern's projected starters are Jordan Hamilton (5'8), Burton (5'9), Pulliam (5'10), Sydney Wood (5'11), and Courtney Shaw (6'0), though Paige Mott (6'1) has started a game in place of... Shaw. Michigan will have a significant size advantage if the Wildcats don't change that up; the Wolverines start Amy Dilk (6'0), Akienreh Johnson (6'0), Leigha Brown (6'1), Hailey Brown (6'1), and Naz Hillmon (6'2). This is literally a point-guard-is-as-big-as-their-center situation.

That should make for a fascinating stylistic clash. The Wildcats have had an efficient offense even while shooting well below their potential from beyond the arc, even crashing the offensive glass among the best in the country (44.4 OR%), somehow. They also give up a ton of offensive rebounds themselves (35.2%), which portends a massive game for Hillmon. NW has the second-highest steal rate in the country; M has been prone to getting pickpocketed.

ESPN2. 5 pm. Sunday. Write it down.