Thursday Recruitin' Reheats Star Debate Comment Count

Ace

There's enough to cover from the BBQ that I'm splitting this edition of the roundup into two parts. Today I'll cover the five recent commits; tomorrow I'll go over the rest.

If you missed them, the five recent Hello posts: Luke Schoonmaker, Nolan Rumler, Stephen Herron, Cameron McGrone, Sammy Faustin.

Sammy Faustin and When Stars Really Matter

Let's start this roundup with the most recent of Michigan's slew of commits, three-star FL S/CB Sammy Faustin. It was quite clear from the comments that many around here didn't see much past this...

Scout Rivals ESPN 247 247 Comp
3*, #75 CB,
#876 Ovr
3* CB NR CB 3*, 86, #74 CB,
#730 Ovr
3*, #78 CB,
#870 Ovr

...before passing judgment on Faustin and questioning why the coaches would take such a low-rated player this long before signing day. One of the main arguments against Faustin is one we've made many times here: star rankings really do matter.

They do. There's a mountain of evidence to back up that assertion. Context is key, however. The recruiting rankings that matter are the final rankings, once the recruiting services have as much data as they can gather. Nobody is going back to look at rankings at the time of a player's commitment. 

Faustin hasn't even played his senior season. We already have a couple recent examples of who-dat defensive back commits taken by this staff developing into (or being recognized as) solid prospects by the time signing day rolled around. Josh Metellus was either a two-star or unranked on all four services when he committed in the 2016 class; three sites subsequently gave him the Michigan bump to three stars, while ESPN got fresh eyes on him and rated him a four-star prospect with an evaluation to match. Metellus saw the field as a true freshman, impressed, and should start this year. More recently, Benjamin St-Juste was a literal unknown when he committed—initial camp reports got his name wrong—then starred at The Opening and cracked the 247 top 100.


Faustin is skeptical of your armchair scouting.

"Trust the coaches" can be a lazy deflection. Between Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown, though, it's hard to question these guys when they identify a player they want early. At the very least, we should let the process play out a little further. Sometimes it only takes a day; read Scout's post-commitment writeup on Faustin and tell me where you think he should be ranked:

Faustin, who passes the eye test with prototypical size in the secondary, is a versatile defender who does a great job of reading and reacting from his cornerback position. Once dissecting the play, Faustin turns heads with the ability to burst out of his back pedal by pushing off his back foot, flashing impressive acceleration in the process. This is a kid who also shows decent technique for a cornerback of his stature.

Faustin is one who does not shy away from physicality either. Once finding his lane to the ball carrier, Faustin closes on the ball in a hurry while also playing under control. There are times when he loses track of his tackling technique, but for the most part, Faustin is a sound tackler in space who strikes with good pad level. He is not the most explosive kid and can work on his flexibility, but does not have much of a problem flipping his hips and readjusting. Faustin is a defender who provides that pop at the point of attack.

For a safety who'll cover the slot, that's a pretty ideal evaluation. It jives with the junior film, which doesn't look like that of the #78 corner in the country. The Wolverine's Brandon Brown caught up with Tom Lemming for a scouting report, and this one also sounds like it's meant for someone better than a middling three-star:

"Faustin is one of my 'Other Players to Watch' in Florida," Lemming said. "He's 6-2, 175 pounds and has legit 4.5 speed. He has good range, quick hands and loose hips and does a very good job of playing the ball. He needs to add weight and strength but is an exceptional athlete."

In related news, recent tight end commit Luke Schoonmaker got a 14-spot bump in Scout's tight end position rankings, added a three-star ranking from Rivals, and got evaluated by ESPN, which now has him as the #19 in-line TE in the country. There's plenty more in last week's roundup.

If you're going to star-gaze without watching the film, I recommend at least waiting until February.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]

Cameron McGrone: Future MIKE?

When I wrote up four-star IN LB Cameron McGrone's commitment on Monday, I saw him as a WILL in the Devin Bush mold. 247's Steve Lorenz posted in his VIP notes that Michigan's coaches see him in a slightly different spot:

The staff is recruiting McGrone as a MIKE; they are the only school who likes him there. He will give them a different dimension at the position as he's an outside backer athletically but plays a physical style Don Brown will love in the middle. Provided he is healthy, he is a player I personally view as a potential contributor in year one.

Given McGrone is further along as a run defender and blitzer than he is in coverage, that fit makes sense as long as he adds the requisite bulk and block-shedding ability. Lorenz also notes this is Michigan's second commit (following Christian Turner) for whom they overcame a big Notre Dame lead; Shayne Simon unfortunately represents the flip side of that.

Meanwhile, Scout's Allen Trieu updated his evaluation on McGrone with a positive mention about his coverage ability:

McGrone is an aggressive linebacker with excellent burst and explosion. He is a great blitzer because of his quickness off the snap, but also his timing. He will take on blocks aggressively as well and does a good job of delivering initial contact. As he adds more technique in terms of using his hands, he should be a guy who can blow up lead blockers because of his explosive power. You don't see him in coverage a ton on his high school film but he looked good in that department during the camps we have seen him at.

If the "blow up lead blockers" bit holds true, I'm sold on him as a MIKE.

As a bonus, fellow Indiana native Emil Ekiyor—who took a recent visit to Alabama, a dangerous contender—seemed quite pleased about McGrone's commitment. More on him tomorrow.

Stephen Herron Gets THE Coach Quote

Scout's Allen Trieu caught up with five-star 2019 KY DE Stephen Herron's coach after his commitment and got the quintessential high-character-guy quote:

"You can't ask for better kid," Vaughn said. "He's the complete package. He's really the definition of it, of being a complete package. He runs a non-profit where he gives back to under privileged youth. He goes on missions. He has a 4.2 GPA. If I had a daughter, he would be first in line for me to date my daughter. You can't go wrong with a kid like that on top of the athletic ability."

In Herron, Michigan is getting a highly recruited athlete with outstanding grades who still wants to do better.

"He can get a lot better because he is willing to put work in," Vaughn said. "He's not satisfied with his success. Sometimes when kids have early success, they may think they've arrived but Stephen is willing to work for his goals and aspirations."

In addition to being very good at football, he sounds exceedingly unlikely to wash out.

Lorenz's post-commitment VIP Notes, uh, note that Stanford held the lead heading into Herron's visit, but Jim Harbaugh gave him a lot of attention and Greg Mattison also played a big role in turning the tide. The 2019 DE class is shaping up to be really dang good:

I'm not going to think about the numbers in 2019 right now. This is more about getting an elite player at an important position and it could be the start of another excellent class up front. I still believe Michigan is the favorite for five-star DE Chris Hinton and are a major factor for four-stars George Karlaftis and Joseph Anderson among others as well.

Karlaftis looks like a very good bet to wind up in the class after last weekend. Herron-Hinton-Karlaftis would be a hell of a haul.

Nolan Rumler: Searching For Negatives

The common theme in four-star 2019 OG Nolan Rumler's post-commitment evaluations is scouts having a difficult time finding something to criticize. Rivals's Josh Helmholdt:

"We list Rumler as a guard, but he has played tackle in his high school career and brings versatility to the table," Helmholdt explained. "He earned an early four-star designation from us and has very few weaknesses for a young lineman."

Scout's Bill Greene:

WHAT ARE THE CONCERNS? There are basically zero concerns about Nolan Rumler, and if he stays healthy he is going to be a multi-year starter and future NFL player. To nitpick, he is not a long-armed, 6-foot-6, super athlete on the offensive line, which slots him as an inside player. There are no concerns with talent, grades, conduct or leadership, as this is a quality young man in every aspect.

That works.

As evidence Rumler is a team guy, Lorenz reports that he held off on making his pledge public to build excitement for the BBQ:

On June 27th, Rumler called the Michigan coaching staff and informed them that he was verbally committing to the Wolverines, but wanted to wait until he returned for the BBQ to make it public and generate some excitement heading into the event. It's a subtle but well-hatched plan that may get some momentum going with some guys the staff is in good shape with.

He's also looking to do some recruiting of his own with Hinton as a top target.

Comments

turd ferguson

August 3rd, 2017 at 8:34 PM ^

This is well said.  It's also clear at this point that Don Brown, who's a damn good defensive coordinator, likes really tall DBs.  We have four CB commitments this year (by 247's classifications), all of whom are 6'2" or taller.

Here are their CB rankings on the 247 composite: 

  • Myles Sims #17
  • Gemon Green #32
  • Sammy Faustin #78
  • German Green #101

Here are their CB rankings on the 247 composite among CBs 6'2" or taller:

  • Myles Sims #4
  • Gemon Green #7
  • Sammy Faustin #15
  • German Green #22

I would bet that those 6'2"+ rankings come closer to Brown's rankings than the other ones.  If we still had Greg Robinson / RR running the defense, I wouldn't "trust the coaches" on this kind of thing.  With Don Brown / Harbaugh, I will.

 

Navy Wolverine

August 3rd, 2017 at 9:04 PM ^

Looking at 247........

Michigan has no safeties listed under their "top targets"

The next category, "Top Choice" lists only one other potential Safety target.....

Julius Irvin (we could have a Dr. J on our team - must get!) from Anaheim has Michigan in his top 5 and is the 23rd rated safety (#286) overall. He only has 2 CBs (Washington) but it's always tough pulling kids out of SoCal (USC is also in his top 5).

We could always find another CB and move him over to Safety, but we don't have many remaining targets their either:

Isaac Taylor-Stuart (La Mesa, CA) is the #28 overall player and probably too elite to move to S. 88% of his CBs are for USC so pulling him in is unlikely.

Stanley Garner is a 3 star CB from Fort Lauderdale but his ratings are only slightly higher than Faustin's.

Kalon Gervin (Cass Tech) is an interesting case. He's the #3 player in the state and #22 CB. He's smaller at 5-11 180. Michigan is not even in his top 5 - I've read that he's not feeling the love from the coaching staff.

Taking all that into consideration, I think Faustin is a good pick up for the secondary and special teams with some good upside.

AA Forever

August 3rd, 2017 at 10:29 PM ^

If the 68th best safety in the class is the very best that our coaches can possibly get, why is that?  Are there NONE of the top 20-25 safeties that appeal to them, or that they can convince to sign with us?  Why, if Harbaugh is such a guru, are elite players not lining up to sign with us in his third year?  How is the 68th best safety in the class going to help us win championships against teams that have top 5 guys?

Don

August 4th, 2017 at 10:39 AM ^

The fact that you're so distraught about the recruiting shortcomings of Jim Harbaugh comes through loud and clear, but there is an easy solution.

Since you're constantly comparing Harbaugh to OSU and Alabama, switching your allegiance to the Buckeyes and the Tide would make you much happier and feel better about yourself. There's no apparent reason why you're a Michigan fan in the first place—it seems like it's just a source of unending frustration and angst for you.

Navy Wolverine

August 4th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^

Per 24/7 Composite:

1. BJ Foster / 5-Star / 0.9904 /  Committed to Texas

2. Caden Sterns / 4 Star / 0.9818 / Committed to Texas

3. Jaiden Woodbey / 4 / 0.9803 / Committed to OSU

4. Tyreke Johnson / 4 / 0.9794 / Top 4: Clemson, Florida, Georgia, OSU (82% CB to Georgia)

5. Derrik Allen / 4 / 0.9681 / Committed to ND

6. Leon O'Neal / 4 / 0.9645 / Committed to Texas A&M

7. DeMarvion Overshown / 4 / Committed to Texas (Horns have three of the top 7 safeties - wow)

8. Steve Stephens / 4 / 0.9629 / Committed to Oregon

9. Josh Proctor / 4 / 0.9574 / Committed to OSU

10. Aashari Crosswell / 4 / 0.9555 / Uncommitted but 100% CB to USC; Michigan offered him in June but are way behind USC)

11. Amari Burney / 4 / 0.9494 / Committed to Florida

12. Isheem Young / 4 / 0.9483 / Committed to Penn State

13. Atanza Vongor / 0.9405 / Committed to TCU

14. Gurvan Hall / 0.9402 / Committed to Miami (YTM)

15. Kwantel Raines / 0.9360 / Top 5 of Florida, Kentucky, PSU, Pitt and WVU

16. Jevon Holland / 0.9230 / Committed to Oregon

17. Brendon Harris / 0.9186 / Committed to Tennessee

18. Nadab Joseph / 0.9162 / Committed to LSU

19. Jordan Moore / 0.9150 / Committed to Texas A&M

20. C.J. Smith / 0.9140 / Recently decommitted from Florida

 

Blue in Paradise

August 3rd, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^

Guess how many stars he has next to his name? Yes, he was a 3 star and now he is busy counting his millions from getting drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft. Your example backfired and you should feel bad for being lazy. Just like the coaches that recruit based on recruiting services rather than their own scouting (which generally correlates with the services but not always).

Quailman

August 3rd, 2017 at 5:55 PM ^

1. Yes, that 3-star player might be the best player the staff can get at the position. They may rate them more-highly, but also they presumably have a better pulse on the wants of the players they are recruiting than we do. If they are getting the vibe that the guys ranked higher on their board than the 3-star arent coming to UM, and that 3-star is now the best player,  he can be a take.

2. Highlight films can be of low value. Good thing the coaching staff gets to base their opinions on players on a lot more data than just that. 

Its not pooh-poohing the significance of recruting rankings. Obviously a class of all 5-stars is better than one of mostly three stars. But its just not going so far in the other direction to say the kid can't play at Michigan just because he's not highly rated. You can like and celebrate the 5-stars without automatically assuming a 3-star is garbage. Its not an end all be all. 

Michigasling

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^

But look at Spiderman!  A dorky nerdy guy whose recruiting tape would make the P5 recruiters snicker.  Of course he's got skills they haven't been exposed to before, so they don't even have the proper testing mechanism.  He's smart and dedicated and wants to prove himself, to learn, to fail, to pick himself back up, to learn from and prove himself to his 5-star mentors.  A lot more fun to root for as he matures and works himself up to the superhero starting line. 

The exception to the rule makes a much better story.

pescadero

August 4th, 2017 at 7:17 AM ^

"You think that an anonymous poster on a blog (you) knows how to build a recruiting class better than our coaching staff."

 

No - I think maybe Nick Saban and Urban Meyer know how to build a recruiting class better than our coaching staff.

 

Being able to beat ME doesn't mean anything - it's being able to beat those folks that matters.

 

M-Dog

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^

It is literally impossible for Jim Harbaugh to recruit a 2-star or low 3-star.  As soon as they commit to Michigan, they get a bump up to 4-star or near 4-star territory.

You think Ace struggles when Harbaugh pulls it a recruit we weren't watching closely?  At least he is paying attention and has his finger on the pulse of Michigan recruiting.  There are very few complete surprises.  

Imagine being Rivals / 247 / etc . . . "Oh shit, Harbaugh just accepted a commitment from some random player we haven't really been watching.  Ah, fuck it, let's just bump the guy up a star and move on.  It's Harbaugh, we're good.  We've got other fish to fry."

  

Jeff09

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^

I feel like with this trust the coaches argument we're really cherry picking data points by picking the guys who worked out. What about the no names who are buried on the roster? At what rate do the low rates guys Michigan has taken see the field vs four stars and above? Picking the ones that worked out seems a bit disingenuous I also think the argument holds up better when you're looking at eg the northeast (or Canada) where little to no national scouting occurs. Yeah, there you can say there are some unearthed gems that maybe Don Brown has an in on some prospect due to relationships. But the most recent commit is from the middle of Florida and so now you have to make a much stronger argument in favor of our coaches' talent IDing ability: 1) the national ranking services missed him AND 2) Florida state missed him AND 3) Florida missed him AND 4) Miami missed him. Which, in my opinion, is quite a conjunction to make. All that being said - I want to make the young man feel welcome. I'm glad he's in the class and want him to prove all the naysayers wrong and kick Ohio State's no-good ass, and if the coaches want him around so do I. I just will have to wait and see.

BoFlex

August 3rd, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^

I honestly think the Class of 2015 (post-Harbaugh hiring) and the early enrollees of 2016 are fair to evaluate. They are all pretty much halfway past their normal eligibility in college athletics, so there's a time for it all to click and turn on, it should be now. So this season will be pretty telling for guys like:
  1. Nolan Ulizio
  2. Shelton Johnson
  3. Keith Washington
  4. Karan Hidgon
  5. Grant Perry
  6. Reuben Jones
  7. Kingston Davis
  8. Sean McKeon
They should be good barometers for gauging Harbaugh's development of lower-rated recruits.

Mr Miggle

August 3rd, 2017 at 7:59 PM ^

Faustin wasn't on top of our recruiting board, but was obviously higher on it than his recruiting profile might suggest. He might have been for some of the Florida schools too. FSU and Miami both have really strong DB classes already, with players we wanted. Give us Samuel and Jobe and maybe Faustin goes to one of them.

Aside from that, Don Brown looks for certain kinds of DBs. Other coaches do too, but not necessarily the same kind.

Steve-a-wolverine-o

August 4th, 2017 at 1:28 AM ^

Not sure what is the real truth but from information I've read on this blog and in other media regarding our football team and coaches, it seems that there is a real value on work ethic and character in this program. We all know that Coach Harbaugh himself has a work ethic second to none in college football coaching. With these coaches, there is evidence that suggests there is a bar when it comes to work ethic and character in recruits. Seems to be a theme in some of these posts on recruit evaluations. I'd like to think that for any recruits that do not pan out, 3* or 5*, having these gentlemen on the sideline or just the practice squad helps the team achieve better results. Of course one would argue but what about this other team and that other team. Different approaches brah... I like Harbaugh's approach. I believe we will see national championships come under Harbaugh.

Champeen

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:11 PM ^

Months have went by with no mention of Devontae Dobbs, outside an OSU visit.  What is the word on him?  In-state monsterously highly ranked Tackle - did he simply not grow up a UM fan?  Are we not recruiting him as hard as others?  Academics?  Off field issues?  Likes Hockey more than basketball?

Hate to see this kid go elsewhere - especially a rival.

Jtre1212

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:15 PM ^

Michigan will probably finish with another top 10 class and everyone is complaining. Besides his transition class when he first got here Harbaugh has proven to be an excellent recruiter. I don't understand why people are doubting him now. He's not taking anymore 3 stars than he has before. 50% of the 2016 class was 3 stars 14/28. 30% of last year were 3 stars 9/30. This year will probably be around 30 to 35%. We plan to take 20-22 so expect 1-3 more of these underrated guys but the majority of the class will be 4 stars. We're off to a great start in 2019 as well. Everyone needs to relax. 

Yes I would love to recruit at OSU and Bamas level but nobody else is, they are in a tier by themselves right now. Just know that we are recruting at a high enough level to win and thats all that matters. Until Harbaugh shows us that his recruting strategy isn't working we have no reason not to trust his judgment. 

AA Forever

August 3rd, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^

at the same level, but that's a recipe for perennial 2 and 3 loss seasons and only beating OSU every 5 or 6 years.  Doesn't help to get a "top 10" class when OSU is first or second every year, and hitting it out of the park on player development, too.  

How do you suggest we're going to make up the talent gap?

Jtre1212

August 4th, 2017 at 2:28 AM ^

So we lost 3 games this year because of talent? or because we just didnt execute? Idk what game you watched but Ohio state didnt look more talented than us., neither did FSU and especially not Iowa. All those games were there for the taking.

Clemson didnt seem to need to recruit at that level either to smoke Ohio State and beat Bama for a national title. Having a top 10 class every year gives you more than enough talent to win a championship. 

 

OlafThe5Star

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:15 PM ^

"Nobody is going back to look at rankings at the time of a player's commitment."

Ok, you can't complain about #content, keep publishing Drafteggedon, and then put a quote like that out there. Wouldn't that be pretty interesting to do? Might not even half to be at the time they sign, but rather correlate rankings 1 year prior to signing day, 1.5, 2.0 to eventual sucess. Sounds like the perfect project for someone around here. 

And you could do it by service to see who is the good early indicator. Seems like that would be very interesting content. 

Logan88

August 3rd, 2017 at 4:17 PM ^

So, if I have to wait to evaluate Sammy Faustin until after his senior year because his rankings might change, does that mean I can't get excited over 5* commits for 2019 like Herron? I'm very confused.

NOTE: This is entirely in jest. I stopped paying attention to star rankings about five years ago. I have followed recruiting for ten years now and have seen enough to know that it is damn near impossible to tell who is going to be good and who isn't. Outside of about 10-20 super elite players each year, it's nearly impossible to accurately separate the 100th best recruit from the 800th best.