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Date Title Body
10/03/2017 - 1:40pm To be fair, he's, what, a

To be fair, he's, what, a 9th-year senior at this point?  

09/19/2017 - 2:46pm Interesting... I actually

Interesting... I basically agree with your entire first paragraph but interpret/apply it in almost exactly the opposite way.  

At this point I'm convinced that there are real risks from playing through college and into the NFL, but those strike me as the type and level of risks that reasonable adults might choose to accept.  We let people consent to all kinds of risky behaviors.  That's a good thing, in my opinion, and I could easily see an adult thinking through the costs and benefits and deciding, reasonably, that the benefits of playing outweigh the costs.  

For kids, I'm sure it's true that the risks aren't as severe if they stop playing before college, but (a) there are still legitimate concerns about young brains banging around and (b) a 10-year-old can't process the long-term costs and benefits of playing football like a 20-year-old can.  It's hard for me to watch kids playing tackle football without thinking that they, themselves, might hit adulthood and wish they (or their parents) hadn't done that.

So for me, I don't have a lot of guilt watching college or pro football, since I think those guys basically know the risks at this point.  At the same time, I would like to see youth football hold off on tackling/contact longer than it does (and wouldn't let my kids play until or unless I thought they could process the risks themselves and make an informed decision).

09/14/2017 - 3:51pm If he approaches signs like

If he approaches signs like he approaches MGoBlog posts, he'll make a sign that just complains about everyone else's sign.

09/14/2017 - 2:21pm Whereas our guy is the 5'11"

Whereas our guy is the 5'11" linebacker from fLA

09/11/2017 - 7:48pm You'd think the last decade

You'd think the last decade would have stripped us of our entitlement, but nope, we're booing a 1-0, top 10 team - coming off of a dominant, neutral site win - when it's winning an (ugly) early season game with the youngest roster I can remember.

08/14/2017 - 12:15pm Isn't Dobbs a 2019 recruit,

Isn't Dobbs a 2019 recruit, and didn't we offer him last summer? If so, that would have been the summer after his freshman year. Who knows what's really going on here, but it seems reasonable to want to evaluate a HS freshman (and especially a HS freshman lineman) before offering.

08/08/2017 - 12:58pm So your argument is that it's

So your argument is that it's stupid to blindly trust the coaches, because we should blindly trust the recruiting sites?

08/06/2017 - 5:03pm Psssst: They do, but the real

Psssst: They do, but the real debate isn't "stars matter" vs. "stars don't matter," since hardly anyone believes the latter.  It's about how much they matter.  

IMO, there's a crowd that doesn't interpret correlations well, and they're too absolute in how much they emphasize player rankings.  (I'm the guy who created composite rankings on MGoBlog like a year before 24/7 did theirs, so I'm really not anti-rankings/data.)  The 2018 DB recruits are a good example.  If you watch Don Brown's interview from last week, you'll see him talk about the importance of his defense having CBs who are willing and able to press.  He clearly likes big, aggressive DBs, and he said that if he questions that in a recruit, he doesn't want him.  I'm sure he thinks his 2018 DB recruits - all 6'2" or taller and offered 6+ months before signing day - will do better in his defense than a lot of 4- and 5-star DBs.  We want him to get the guys he thinks can execute his system, even if he looks past higher-ranked guys to find them.  He's earned that, and while it's true that star ratings are correlated with performance, those correlations are weak enough that this kind of context matters.

TL;DR: It's possible to think that stars matter without thinking that only stars matter.

08/06/2017 - 4:57pm I agree.  I think this is

I agree.  I think this is what lets a Don Brown defense play so aggressively without getting burned too often.  I'm craving positive updates on CBs.

08/06/2017 - 1:21pm Yeah, I think his post above

Yeah, I think his post above solidifies his troll status for me.

 

AA Forever, last week: I'll get excited when UM gets a highly rated recruit.

UM, yesterday: Gets a top 10 recruit.

AA Forever, today: Getting excited about recruits is stupid because it takes a long time for them to contribute. 

08/03/2017 - 8:56pm This is oversimplified and

This is oversimplified and incorrect.  But you said "Period" and "End of story" and stuff, so I guess we should defer to your infallible interpretations of correlations like these.

08/03/2017 - 8:34pm This is well said.  It's also

This is well said.  It's also clear at this point that Don Brown, who's a damn good defensive coordinator, likes really tall DBs.  We have four CB commitments this year (by 247's classifications), all of whom are 6'2" or taller.

Here are their CB rankings on the 247 composite: 

  • Myles Sims #17
  • Gemon Green #32
  • Sammy Faustin #78
  • German Green #101

Here are their CB rankings on the 247 composite among CBs 6'2" or taller:

  • Myles Sims #4
  • Gemon Green #7
  • Sammy Faustin #15
  • German Green #22

I would bet that those 6'2"+ rankings come closer to Brown's rankings than the other ones.  If we still had Greg Robinson / RR running the defense, I wouldn't "trust the coaches" on this kind of thing.  With Don Brown / Harbaugh, I will.

 

07/09/2017 - 8:50pm Fun topic, but I think you're

Fun topic, but I think you're missing at least a couple of wins.  

 

From 1996: #11 UM 20 @ #5 Colorado 13

From 2005: UM 27 vs. #8 PSU 25

 

Lloyd Carr was supposedly 19-8 against top 10 teams, which might be the most impressive line on his resume aside from (or maybe including) the 1997 national title.

06/26/2017 - 8:12pm Yep, only someone really

Yep, only someone really stupid would want or need that. Like presidentially stupid.

05/26/2017 - 2:23pm Unfortunately, I lost my file

Unfortunately, I lost my file and haven't had the patience to go back and redo it, but a year or two ago I looked at the correlation between Beilein's recruits' ratings at the time he got them and their subsequent contributions at Michigan.  It really is almost 0 (in the neighborhood of 0.1 IIRC, although there's obviously subjectivity in rating players' contributions).  It's kind of amazing, actually.  

In general with college sports, you're right that higher-rated players are more productive, but that just hasn't happened with Beilein.  It has been very hard to predict his players' productivity based on their recruiting ratings.  I think some of that is the nature of college basketball (that guys leave so quickly after turning productive), some of it is Beilein's ability to identify and develop talent, and some of it is the systems he runs.

This isn't a "you're a dick" or "recruiting ratings don't matter" post.  I pay attention to ratings, too.  But if there's one guy it doesn't make sense to evaluate based on recruiting rankings, it really might be John Beilein.

 
05/18/2017 - 6:17pm You're not wrong, but you're

You're not wrong, but you're supporting - not refuting - Bo's point.

04/21/2017 - 5:49pm Agreed.  Mel should be the

Agreed.  Mel should be the (very high) floor for this hire.

04/21/2017 - 5:48pm Including Ellerbe is pretty

Including Ellerbe is pretty weird, too.

04/20/2017 - 10:59am Sliced bread made it and

Sliced bread made it and MGoBlog didn't.  Seth and Brian might need to make sure they have content that connects with this upcoming, turtleneck-loving generation.

04/15/2017 - 3:49pm How did the CBs look?  And

How did the CBs look?  And the OL?

04/12/2017 - 3:17pm Okay, pal.

Okay, pal.

This is where I stop engaging with you and hope, for your sake, that you're 12 years old.

04/12/2017 - 3:05pm I guess this answers my

I guess this answers my question above. This kind of act is really pathetic.

04/12/2017 - 3:02pm Okay, I'll ask you the exact

Okay, I'll ask you the exact same question I asked ldd10 above, because I just looked at your past posts and it definitely applies...

 

Could you clarify whether you're (a) an MSU fan who pretends to be a UM fan or (b) an MSU fan who acknowledges that he's an MSU fan while posting on a UM board?  

I'm fine with (b), but your posting history suggests (a).

04/12/2017 - 2:23pm I respect that.  Thanks for

I respect that.  Thanks for being honest about it.  MSU sucks, though.  You should become a Michigan fan.

04/12/2017 - 2:16pm Could you clarify whether

Could you clarify whether you're (a) an MSU fan who pretends to be a UM fan or (b) an MSU fan who acknowledges that he's an MSU fan while posting on a UM board?  

I'm fine with (b), but your posting history suggests (a).

04/10/2017 - 7:58pm That's what she said?

That's what she said?

Fool us once, Logan88...

04/10/2017 - 7:36pm Be careful, Mathlete!

Be careful, Mathlete!  They'll steal it!  Before there was the 247 Composite, there was the MGoBlog turd ferguson Composite

04/06/2017 - 12:29pm That's true based on where

That's true based on where those guys ended up in the recruiting rankings, but it's not true based on where they were when Beilein got involved. Guys like Burke, GR3, Stauskas, and Wagner weren't considered top 100 prospects when Beilein started recruiting them.

03/17/2017 - 3:35pm If I just counted right, John

If I just counted right, John Beilein is 16-1 at Michigan in the first game of Big Ten/NCAA Tournaments.  That's pretty damn good.

02/21/2017 - 4:14pm Your last sentence sounds

Your last sentence sounds familiar.

02/21/2017 - 4:06pm Your MGoBlog posts are

Your MGoBlog posts are certainly among those things.

01/17/2017 - 12:08am Honestly, that photo makes me

Honestly, that photo makes me wonder if it could become iconic if/when Addison Harbaugh becomes the first female coach in the NFL or major college football.  Harbaughs are a different species.

12/22/2016 - 5:08pm Perry should be punished for

Perry should be punished for whatever he did wrong, but I am curious whether the EL police would have raised that minor hand injury if this were an MSU player rather than a UM player.

12/22/2016 - 5:05pm I agree that it's important

I agree that it's important not to over-punish for something like this, especially before the details are clear, but it's not ridiculous to believe that behaviors that potentially harm people (like groping women against their will) should be punished more harshly than behaviors that don't harm people (like smoking marijuana).

12/18/2016 - 8:16pm Or he does.
Keep your friends

Or he does.

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

12/18/2016 - 7:07pm Just to be clear on the

Just to be clear on the details of this proposal, you'll still come around to tell the rest of us that you disapprove of us, right?  I wouldn't want to lose that because of some bilateral agreement between you and WD.

12/18/2016 - 6:29pm This thread is especially

This thread is especially nutty (or funny) because it's basically a bunch of junkies giving shit to their dealer for doing what he does.

12/14/2016 - 12:21pm I've always thought it'd be a

I've always thought it'd be a nice feature to have a "Goodbye" post for each graduating scholarship player that reviews his recruiting rankings, contributions, funny stuff along the way, etc.  It'd be a lot of work, but it could be a good way to fill the football-less summer.

12/12/2016 - 1:12pm Because they really want to

Because they really want to be doctors?  Because they make life decisions based on more than just expected earnings?  Because having to wait until your 30s until you make $500K/year isn't such a bad deal? 

12/09/2016 - 9:23am There's a way to reframe the

There's a way to reframe the question that maybe wouldn't attract as much vitriol. Would you rather be in PSU's position (Big Ten title, no Playoff) or OSU's position (Playoff, no Big Ten title)?  I'd take OSU's position, and I'd bet that most people here would do the same.  

Winning the Big Ten title is a helpful means to playing for a national title, so I value it, but I don't value it as its own end as much as I once did.

12/07/2016 - 8:56am I wonder if they drew that up

I wonder if they drew that up after getting burned by a kind of similar (and also fun) play a year earlier --

[EDIT: Sorry, it looks like the NFL has YouTube-only protections or something. The link below just takes you directly to the YouTube clip.]

12/06/2016 - 2:49pm Turds have feelings, too,

Turds have feelings, too, schreibee.

12/06/2016 - 1:44pm Brian, good post, but you

Brian, good post, but you buried the lede.  Aubrey Solomon doesn't believe in ties?  I wonder how he makes sense of a game that's 10-10 in the 2nd quarter.  

12/04/2016 - 5:11pm I'm hoping that was a Rutgers

I'm hoping that was a Rutgers joke, because if Delany grew up an OSU fan I'm gonna lose it.

10/31/2016 - 11:03am That's beautiful (honestly).

That's beautiful (honestly).  They just lost at home to Michigan in a game that was never really in doubt, sending Michigan to 8-0 and MSU to 2-6, and they're calling it a victory, all things considered.  If you take a step back and consider that in the context of the past few years, it's about the clearest indication we've had that things have changed.

10/26/2016 - 4:01pm I don't even agree with him.

I don't even agree with him.  I'm going to take his words and substitute in another distinction between some fans and other fans--whether we grew up as Michigan fans.  I don't believe what this says either (i.e., I think this is arrogant and stupid, too), but to me it doesn't sound any less reasonable than what he wrote.  My edits are in bold. 

---------------------------------

As fans who grew up cheering for Michigan since childhood, our connections to the university are much deeper and far more meaningful than those who basically decided to become fans in adulthood (when they went to college). And as someone else mentioned, it's the thin-skinned "well, I went there and you didn't" that gets old.
 
I'm sorry if it's arrogant or elitist, but there are people who have loved Michigan since birth, and there are people who haven't. Everyone has a right to follow the program, everyone has a right to love Michigan. And not all lifelong fans are great fans, just as not all newcomers are great fans. But there has to be an acknowledgment that a lifetime of cheering for Michigan means something far different when it comes to fandom. That's all.
 
10/26/2016 - 2:02pm For what it's worth, Bando

For what it's worth, Bando doesn't speak for many of us.

10/26/2016 - 12:38pm And who are you to decide how

And who are you to decide how meaningful someone's connections are to a university?  This is stunningly elitist... and stupid.

10/26/2016 - 11:51am I agree.  And this

I agree.  And this conversation is getting so old.  I'm not even sure what here is debatable:

1.  Recruit rankings are correlated with college and NFL success.  If you know nothing about two classes except for their star ratings, pick the higher-rated one, because it is a predictor of success.

2.  Those correlations are strong but far from perfect, and there are a lot of reasons to question them in specific cases.  Some position groups (e.g., OL) are harder to project and have weaker correlations between recruit rankings and college performance.  Some groups of prospects are systematically underrated because they don't get much attention from recruiting services (e.g., kids who physically mature late, live in overlooked states, or commit early to low-profile programs).  Some prospects fits better in certain coaches' systems and their ratings don't necessarily reflect that.  And some coaches are better than others at talent evaluation.

There's a crowd here that acts like recruiting rankings are almost infallible and anyone who doesn't defer to them is naive and doesn't understand statistics, using point 1 as the argument.  That's stupid.  And then there's a crowd that says "Mike Hart, bitches" whenever anyone raises point 1.  That's also stupid.  The reality is obviously somewhere in between.

10/24/2016 - 12:59pm I think this is totally

I think this is totally valid.  I'm getting nervous/confused about this, too, especially when we're hearing talk about 4 WRs, 7 OL, 100 RBs, etc.